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  • #50,841
  • Dec 16, 2008 10:52pm Dec 16, 2008 10:52pm
Quoting cemfx
Given the strength of the movements in the euro..why would anyone think of going short in this market? Just wondering...
Precisely because the market's long run was so strong, inevitably paper profits from this run are just that, until they are taken. Given the size of the move I anticipate a large selloff, of course I will not take action until I the tape looks favorable, perhaps anywhere between 1.4155-90. Otherwise I will look at other pairs for opportunities.
  • #50,842
  • Dec 16, 2008 10:58pm Dec 16, 2008 10:58pm
Opened a short @1.4187 sl @ 250

Edit: Sl is now at +1 from entry 1.4186
  • #50,843
  • Dec 16, 2008 11:01pm Dec 16, 2008 11:01pm
check out the 15m on UJ, methinks I smell a boj in the room... time should tell, but that could get wicked...

short from 5714 gu in the meantime, and these are mean times.
FUBAR...
  • #50,844
  • Dec 16, 2008 11:04pm Dec 16, 2008 11:04pm
Quoting 5ysfx
agree euro has tremendous power lately
but today decline on eur/chf might be red alert for it strenght in near future

just my opinion
Might be, but first it has to break a prior daily low at least.
  • #50,845
  • Dec 16, 2008 11:13pm Dec 16, 2008 11:13pm
Sl moved once again to 1.4175 (Ask) to a +12
  • #50,846
  • Dec 16, 2008 11:16pm Dec 16, 2008 11:16pm
just took another short @ 1.4170 ... still down some pips from previous shorts... but eur is overbought - should fall the rest of the week


now back to bed (gmt - 5)
  • #50,847
  • Dec 16, 2008 11:20pm Dec 16, 2008 11:20pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
just took another short @ 1.4170 ... still down some pips from previous shorts... but eur is overbought - should fall the rest of the week


now back to bed (gmt - 5)
I dont know about the rest of the week... but for now it does look like it might experience a sizable correction.
  • #50,848
  • Dec 16, 2008 11:37pm Dec 16, 2008 11:37pm
Quoting iii
I dont know about the rest of the week... but for now it does look like it might experience a sizable correction.
yup, seems like it'll correct itself until 4150 or so and then go into a freefall overnight.
  • #50,849
  • Dec 16, 2008 11:40pm Dec 16, 2008 11:40pm
What I see is retrasment to about 1.4040 and then resume going up
  • #50,850
  • Dec 16, 2008 11:41pm Dec 16, 2008 11:41pm
Quoting iii
I dont know about the rest of the week... but for now it does look like it might experience a sizable correction.
pivot is at .3987....i'd like to see it go back to .3884 but that may be too ambitious....curious to know your short term targets and how you arrived there.....

thanks,

mm

p.s. nice call on the 4190 spike!!!
He who hesitates is hesitant....which always leads to bad entries.
  • #50,851
  • Dec 16, 2008 11:55pm Dec 16, 2008 11:55pm
Quoting Mackeymax
pivot is at .3987....i'd like to see it go back to .3884 but that may be too ambitious....curious to know your short term targets and how you arrived there.....

thanks,

mm

p.s. nice call on the 4190 spike!!!
Whenever I put a scalp trades like the three shorts earlier I usually take profit at the time the tape action reverses (I do not have a set target as i like to see profits run). On the other hand the short I put on today is targeted towards longer term (few hours to a month) and it has a profit target at 1.3460 at the moment. This may change depending on how the day goes. I do not use any indicators, or trend lines, since they could be highly ambiguous. I do like to use points of resistance and support and I observe closely the reaction of the price when it gets to those levels.
The generally accepted patterns such as flags, pennants, head and shoulder are in my opinion unreliable ones, instead I use patterns that I have observed over the few years I have traded. These are more difficult to spot and can be interpreted differently by different traders (these patterns are in the eye of the beholder so to speak).

Hopefully this helps
  • #50,852
  • Dec 17, 2008 12:06am Dec 17, 2008 12:06am
Quoting iii
Whenever I put a scalp trades like the three shorts earlier I usually take profit at the time the tape action reverses (I do not have a set target as i like to see profits run)....
thanks for the reply...nice bear divergence on the 1hr....will try a few more shorts and then call it a night....

mm
He who hesitates is hesitant....which always leads to bad entries.
  • #50,853
  • Dec 17, 2008 12:07am Dec 17, 2008 12:07am
kick this around..usd has been strong lately. i know the buzz is stated thats because people worlwide are moving to safety of greenback. but could some of that be because usd had one of the lowest interest rates? hear me out.. the yen was almost 0 during all this crap going on and strong. now the usd is actually lower then yen.. rate wise... so after all the shock of the rate cut wears off. the usd cant cut any lower period... but other currencies can...knowing this could possibly make the dollar stronger as the yen has been the last 5 months.. just a thought...only cause we cant cut anymore to bost equity markets..this way.. also im reading the banks still with cut willing to lend..also this guy who ripped off all the investors did a lot of business with eur funds/investors maybe this unraveling is making people needing cash in euros to cover other called in leverage..on other eur investments..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #50,854
  • Dec 17, 2008 12:13am Dec 17, 2008 12:13am
Quoting gatorinla
kick this around..usd has been strong lately. i know the buzz is stated thats because people worlwide are moving to safety of greenback. but could some of that be because usd had one of the lowest interest rates? hear me out.. the yen was almost...
You are absolutely correct, in fact I just finished school assignment, whose findings suggest a negative correlation between interest rates and underlining currency (this is long term of course).
  • #50,855
  • Dec 17, 2008 12:16am Dec 17, 2008 12:16am
i meant banks un willing to lend... also prominant people needing to cover leverage may lead to panic by banks seeing such prominant investors needing cash.. word of mouth may start a minie buy of the eur. i know this thing is too big for u or me to influence. but a few prominant investors thinking they are in a 50 billion dollar fund. and the shock of it being b.s. could start a snowball effect.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #50,856
  • Dec 17, 2008 12:19am Dec 17, 2008 12:19am
M3 busted cleanly on eu and gu but retraced to the pivot on gu... but gu also closed below 15m Gann. that's a switch...

I'll hold the shorts for awhile longer, took some off at 100 pips.

add: GY finally waking up, but doesn't know which side of the bed to fall off of.
FUBAR...
  • #50,857
  • Dec 17, 2008 12:21am Dec 17, 2008 12:21am
Quoting iii
You are absolutely correct, in fact I just finished school assignment, whose findings suggest a negative correlation between interest rates and underlining currency (this is long term of course).
just a thought...
glad someone else had this thought.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #50,858
  • Dec 17, 2008 12:24am Dec 17, 2008 12:24am
We are seeing the banks' unwillingness to lend already. My thought on usd and the commodities in the US is that the drop we have seen is merely associated with usd appreciation, nothing more. The bs that the demand for fuel has dropped, etc is just rationalization for the move (of course the rationalization always happens after the fact). Fundamentals dont seem to work well in this environment, so I suppose it is up to the earliest entrant to make all the bucks (of course the earlies entrants are likely to be extremely wealthy individuals who can move the markets so that smaller traders like ourselves can follow, further adding to their profits).
  • #50,859
  • Dec 17, 2008 12:26am Dec 17, 2008 12:26am
Quoting ak4x
M3 busted cleanly on eu and gu but retraced to the pivot on gu... but gu also closed below 15m Gann. that's a switch...

I'll hold the shorts for awhile longer, took some off at 100 pips.

add: GY finally waking up, but doesn't know which side of the bed to fall off of.
Glad to hear you made money. I am also watching GY, its indecisive price action amuses me.
  • #50,860
  • Dec 17, 2008 12:29am Dec 17, 2008 12:29am
Quoting ak4x
..... GY finally waking up,
When I grow up; I might trade GY - but; today or tomorrow, ain't gunna be the day.

Seer
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
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