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EURUSD

  • #50,801
  • Dec 16, 2008 4:52pm Dec 16, 2008 4:52pm
Quoting ak4x
gotta love gravity...
Guess gravity can be a bitch too
  • #50,802
  • Dec 16, 2008 4:54pm Dec 16, 2008 4:54pm
Little EJ Daily to ponder. It will be at it's UTL for this range in a'rd 70-80 pips should it keep going((admittedly a heckuva range, but still a range)). The correlation has been diminished of late, but should EJ drop, i would still expect it to drag on EU to some degree, especially if remaining yen carries resume liquidating and bring down the gbp. At current UJ levels tho, that may open up another can of worms...

It's all really a mess atm. If this ((EJ)) doesn't drop in asia, or I get stopped out at my +3 SL first, then it's back into the garage to finish replacing my timing chain.
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FUBAR...
  • #50,803
  • Dec 16, 2008 5:00pm Dec 16, 2008 5:00pm
EUR/USD lost 100 pips from today's peak, after the aggressive move by Bernanke. It seems to me like a chance to go long from here.

The 1.40 mark might become a psychological resistance line.
  • #50,804
  • Dec 16, 2008 5:02pm Dec 16, 2008 5:02pm
Quoting ak4x
Little EJ Daily to ponder. It will be at it's UTL for this range in a'rd 70-80 pips should it keep going((admittedly a heckuva range, but still a range)). The correlation has been diminished of late, but should EJ drop, i would still expect it to drag on EU to some degree, especially if remaining yen carries resume liquidating and bring down the gbp. At current UJ levels tho, that may open up another can of worms...

It's all really a mess atm. If this ((EJ)) doesn't drop in asia, or I get stopped out at my +3 SL first, then it's back...
Youre making alot of interesting points.Youre right, even just now the little dip in EJ pressured the eU.That correlation will remain.At the same time the UJ situation is a complication on its own.It might purely track dollar weakness and detach from stocks completly(lets see what the japanese do tomorrow.That would clear things up.I hope EJ retraces a bit so you can get out.
  • #50,805
  • Dec 16, 2008 5:09pm Dec 16, 2008 5:09pm
Quoting Algirdas
Trend still do not loosing steam:

EUR/USD Target 1.4197
GBP/USD Target 1.5753
AUD/USD Target 0.7023
NZD/USD Target 0.5837

USD/CAD Target 1.1897
USD/CHF Target 1.1121

Hi,i read in heard from your blog that the target for UJ is 89.73 and the price is 89.10 here now or u mean we should have our sell stop at 89.73?
Talk to me pls.

Ayour2a
  • #50,806
  • Edited 5:23pm Dec 16, 2008 5:13pm | Edited 5:23pm
Hi ak4fx,

What do you think of the next target shown on the attached picture.

thanks,
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Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_weekly1.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #50,807
  • Dec 16, 2008 5:14pm Dec 16, 2008 5:14pm
Is everyone still going long, despite the huge movement upwards today? Fundamentally, there isn't any good news for US dollar, so the trend should continue upwards with some corrections along the way. Agree?
  • #50,808
  • Edited 5:49pm Dec 16, 2008 5:20pm | Edited 5:49pm
Weekly EU with some a historical Support level ((Aqua line)) thrown in. Figure 20-30 pips either side of that 4100 line.

The 50ema ((Red line)) is especially interesting. Bad time to get married to the wrong position right now whichever way it goes. Remember this is a weekly chart. There are many pips on both sides of those two shaded circles...

Note: My upper fib anchor is drawn from the top of the range at that time, not the actual highs. They do not reflect valid price sentiment from back then imo as they were mostly spikes up that then collapsed. anywhere a'rd 5910-5930 works for me. I don't worry about "to the pip" on weekly charts.

Should add that the top of that weekly range back in October '07 coincides pretty close to the 62% fib level a'rd 4280...
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FUBAR...
  • #50,809
  • Dec 16, 2008 5:25pm Dec 16, 2008 5:25pm
Quoting trader2160
.I hope EJ retraces a bit so you can get out.
Oh I'm short from 42 and green by 20 something with +3 locked. This is a position trade that will either fly or make me coffee money at starbucks.

Keeps me out of the garage for now as well. Thought I had got out of the home mechanic business until I saw what Toyota wanted to change out timing belt and water pump. Making up for new car sales losses I guess.

It's all good either way. Off to dinner, careful trades all.
FUBAR...
  • #50,810
  • Dec 16, 2008 5:41pm Dec 16, 2008 5:41pm
Possible that EU isn't respecting anything in case Swissy is in a free fall?
/ ... clarifying decisions ... /
  • #50,811
  • Dec 16, 2008 5:43pm Dec 16, 2008 5:43pm
Quoting ak4x
Oh I'm short from 42 and green by 20 something with +3 locked. This is a position trade that will either fly or make me coffee money at starbucks.
Nice
  • #50,812
  • Edited 7:46pm Dec 16, 2008 6:16pm | Edited 7:46pm
A GU Daily to ponder as well. Another one of those "top of the range" deals..

It's clear several of the majors are at critical levels where literally almost anything could happen. The real question in my mind is for how long would it last?

I'm not reading much of anything into anything until after the new year confirms or rejects it as far as trend changes, reversals, or whatever. Taking what look like no brainers at the time, hanging on to my Christmas money, hoping for the best and if I make coffee money on top of that, then it's all good...

In between having fun and enjoying the important things this time of the year of course. That's one trade with a really tight stop loss on it.
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FUBAR...
  • #50,813
  • Dec 16, 2008 6:28pm Dec 16, 2008 6:28pm
Frankly this move did not provide the best opportunity for profit. Would have been much nicer with a move more gradual with reasonable retraces. Straight up?? Oh well.
  • #50,814
  • Dec 16, 2008 6:40pm Dec 16, 2008 6:40pm
Quoting walb99
Possible that EU isn't respecting anything in case Swissy is in a free fall?
CHF has been gaining on USD / JPY / GBP / AUD / CAD and NZD

Only EUR has moved higher against Swissy.
  • #50,815
  • Dec 16, 2008 6:45pm Dec 16, 2008 6:45pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
Frankly this move did not provide the best opportunity for profit. Would have been much nicer with a move more gradual with reasonable retraces. Straight up?? Oh well.
Ya I'm thinking we may have a quiet night. Till the next open good night all.
  • #50,816
  • Dec 16, 2008 6:45pm Dec 16, 2008 6:45pm
Quoting SunTrader

Only EUR has moved higher against Swissy.

not today bro...
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  • #50,817
  • Dec 16, 2008 6:45pm Dec 16, 2008 6:45pm
And back to a short TF EU chart... the 2hr.

Getting a lot of mileage out of that old fib with the bottom anchor from the morning of the 9th at a'rd 0600 hrs CST. Top anchor is a'rd 1000 hrs CST on the 11th.

Pulling the top anchor up to the 3707 level then pushes that 150% fib extension up 2 pips less to 4151, almost exactly the current high of 4145... either way you look at it, it's pushing a lot of resistance at this point.
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FUBAR...
  • #50,818
  • Dec 16, 2008 7:26pm Dec 16, 2008 7:26pm
Quoting 5ysfx
not today bro...
True but the decline today did not even break the previous day's low.

But it is clear which way the trend has been for the last month and a half on the various CHF pairs. Down or sideways to down on everything but EUR.
  • #50,819
  • Dec 16, 2008 7:28pm Dec 16, 2008 7:28pm
Quoting SunTrader
CHF has been gaining on USD / JPY / GBP / AUD / CAD and NZD

Only EUR has moved higher against Swissy.
I meant the USD/CHF pair with the term Swissy.
/ ... clarifying decisions ... /
  • #50,820
  • Dec 16, 2008 7:49pm Dec 16, 2008 7:49pm
Howdy y'all..I'm a newbie 2 Forex..working w/demo account..crazy day 2day..made some profit!! I'll be asking ?'s if y'all want 2 help me, I'd appreciate all input. I have yet 2 learn how to calculate the daily point values and what they mean. As I said, I'd appreciate any help. I've been reading forum some and learning bits & pieces, so I decided to join up and introduce myself!
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