Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

i concur. if we sit down here waiting looking at the price rise like poo but we're still at the sidelines not jumping in with the trend, we're ridiculing ourselves as 'trend traders' isnt it?

Possibly, when price is rocketing, it may be necessary to slightly curb hopes and expectations of 'ideal' pullbacks, in order to join with the momentum.

totally. so the question will be..'what now?'

I am in 3 deep short. I just got filled at 1.3797. The trend is still down. I wll get out if we cross and open above 140 at 5:00pm EST. Today is fed day and I hope it gives me a chance to lighten up.

I'm looking for a daily bar open with a good 100 pip pullback, then watch PA to decide upon entry.

Short wasn't the way to go today.

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Good thing this was a DEMO account LOL.

This is a testament to my position that demo accounts are useless except to learn the very basics of trading and how to use the broker's software. After trading conservatively in the demo account for a month, I was up 78%. When I lost a good chunk of my profits today when the Euro shot up, I got pissed and said, heck it's a demo account, who cares, and started trading 5 100K lots at 1:400 leverage and watching the ticks. I'm a newbie and not a daytrader. I'd normally just stay out of the market on days leading up to a big news day (which I did on my real account), and definitely I take a set-it and forget it (until I get an alert.) But if I went long, wowee would I be rolling in play money! I wanted to see how easy it is to blow an account out getting very aggressive but not purposely trying to blow it out - achieved that objective.

What's funny is I've been waffling on whether we have a trend reversal. I was very convinced a few days ago we were in a reversal so I actually was going counter trend still going short on the EUR. I should have stuck with my gut and went long. While I don't think we are seeing a long-term trend reversal, definitely a short term trend reversal - be interesting to see how much farther the EUR goes.

I noted that I had drawn a Fib from the high for 4865 on 9/21 to the low of 2328 at end of October. In that case we blew past the 61.8 fib retracement today. But I think I need to try the Fib line from 7/13 with high of 6037. In that case the Fib 50 retracement is about 4150. Could this be a major resistance point determining if this is a short term retracement or a mid-term trend reversal?

Bummer Dude......:nerd:
Maybe you should take a break from analyzing the market and trade what you see instead.

http://img247.imageshack.us/img247/7...apture3gh1.png

Hindsight is 20-20. If you took away the last three candles and went back in time and looked at the graph, then some may have thought 3400 was a resistance and went short. So where are you going from here? Long or short?

will continue long until my signal says otherwise.......
You can see my last trades if you click on my journal......
I will update it with this weeks trades so far this evening.

was closed missed that target by 9 pips (this was around the 50 retracement from the large move down on the weekly charts)

looks like a pin bar forming on the daily charts now, so possibly going back south in the next few days?

had anyone played the bounce on 4200 and had it hit, would have been hardly any drawdown and be floating about 85 pips as of now at 4116

not sure what to expect now, either continue up.. or pin bar will form and confirm it down, and it will indeed go down. should be interesting, hope I learn something new from this

hi there. i like your avatar!

thanks, its from Mario Sunshine

MR KISS,

Time to trade what u see. Welcome to trading class 101 in December. Now, this time of yr is not the time to trade.....even the PROS (Bank Traders & Fund traders etc) are scalling down their trading & closing books for the yr. There is low volume, hence wild chops & swings as you expericenced.
It is like trading in "THE LAND OF OZ"......what is real, what is not?

This type of Chaos will be seen until after January 1, 2009 & even then it can be choppy for several days until the trading desk are restaffed.

ONE conselation........you were in DEMO MODE. No real loss that time.....JUST SHOCK.

Five yrs ago I too took a bad hit this time of yr, EXCEPT on a 10 lot standard account with a TOO TIGHT STOP IN PLACE. NO MARGIN CALL, BUT A HUGH LOSS........TO ME ANYWAY. Now @ Christmas time I relax, shop & spend time with family & friends. Clear your mind & your desk during this time & retool your trading tool box preparing for 2009.

Today will be more of the same........take a look @ your favorite pairs.

Just my views from someone thats been there, done that & wants NO MORE.

Best Trades & Happy Holidays.

I'm a new student of this method and thread so I'm curious about the comment in your journal that you were "breaking your own rules" ... are your rules different from the ones taught on this thread by Jacko ?

even if your getting more agressive with some of your trades ... you have kept it in check enough to expand the number on your bottom line ... I would think that's what leads to success in the long run ...

Johndoe

I'm glad to say I have caught some very nice long trades lately and agree with you - I am long until I have good reason to think otherwise.

I just wondered if there was any further details about how you trade. I have read through your journal a couple of times and you clearly know what you're up to! Sorry if I overlooked this somewhere.

Regards,

Dan

Got this in an email. Very interesting.... Free login may be required to see links.
Link to site http://www.rgemonitor.com

~~~~~
Does the U.S. dollar’s December (http://clicks.skem1.com/v/?u=2e1f4561c73edb320423ee3e17403a8c&g=2598&c=444&p=5785e9586a8de228f4e1499e838618fa&t=1) slide (http://clicks.skem1.com/v/?u=dfba1936b50166208856660e85dad605&g=2598&c=444&p=5785e9586a8de228f4e1499e838618fa&t=1) mean the USD has passed its peak? Most likely not. The turn-of-the-year profit-taking on long USD positions creates a near-term blip in the dollar's uptrend but doesn't alter the medium-term trend of appreciation versus the euro (http://clicks.skem1.com/v/?u=f385daf015b994159ad5ff1769e20b8f&g=2598&c=444&p=5785e9586a8de228f4e1499e838618fa&t=1). The four horseman of the carry trade apocalypse - Deleveraging (http://clicks.skem1.com/v/?u=3e5af42f15e5785b430e6421149d3b41&g=2598&c=444&p=5785e9586a8de228f4e1499e838618fa&t=1), Risk Aversion (http://clicks.skem1.com/v/?u=90c7bdcbaae2f2384df36812090424e5&g=2598&c=444&p=5785e9586a8de228f4e1499e838618fa&t=1), Growth Differentials and the Dollar's Reserve Currency Status (http://clicks.skem1.com/v/?u=eb119c895d7206417b03674d3c33ef1d&g=2598&c=444&p=5785e9586a8de228f4e1499e838618fa&t=1) - would need to retreat before we see a sustained pullback in the EUR/USD from the slide to near-parity ($1.10-$1.30). Governments, banks and other firms are still scrambling for dollars to repay their USD-denominated debt while signs of global recession and credit crisis spur on the flight-to-safety in U.S. Treasuries (http://clicks.skem1.com/v/?u=2cd79bbfaf29dec232f84f6d744d90eb&g=2598&c=444&p=5785e9586a8de228f4e1499e838618fa&t=1). European sovereign bonds (http://clicks.skem1.com/v/?u=6c733b7fe9ceb942903c929ef6ae00bf&g=2598&c=444&p=5785e9586a8de228f4e1499e838618fa&t=1) offer an alternative but inferior safe haven because of the European bond market’s (http://clicks.skem1.com/v/?u=b5bdbd6a9bd06b9c0a2e923f252b1cf6&g=2598&c=444&p=5785e9586a8de228f4e1499e838618fa&t=1) fragmentation and exposure to emerging Europe (http://clicks.skem1.com/v/?u=f811b3792336e78481cb6cb394002cfb&g=2598&c=444&p=5785e9586a8de228f4e1499e838618fa&t=1). More aggressive policy response in the U.S. compared to Europe, could bring the U.S. out of a recession faster than the Eurozone (though growth will most likely remain subdued for some years to come), supporting the dollar against the euro. In the longer term, however, once risk appetite revives, the greenback might lose its defenses in wake of worries surrounding U.S. public debt expansion and the potential inflationary effect of quantitative easing.
~~~~~

I don't know if the Euro is heading higher or not, there seems to be so many conflicting opinions at the moment I think all you can do is trade what you see.

For me shorting the Euro has looked like suicide over the last few days. If we are heading down I would suggest waiting until the market tells us it's ready otherwise Buys are treating me well at the moment.

Although I am no expert by far, so don't pay too much attention to what I have to say, lol!

Regards,

Dan

Next stop? maybe 1.46 will hold, if it doesnt... mmmm 1.5?

buying EUR/USD is scary, as it seems its so high already, especially moving so many pips without a decent retracement. The aggresive aproach would be to try to buy this market even now doing it very carefully, setting tight S/L, trying to buy on the way up after a miniscule retracement.

a safe aproach would be to stay out of the market probably untill the start of the new year. EUR/USD is priced so high without a decent retracement, buying now is very risky as a retracement can start happening anytime now and the higher it goes the bigger the probability.

selling this market now is a NO NO . Do you see bearish divergences, fib or S&R's from previous historical PA ? Do you think Eur/usd is too high and cannot go any higher. Yes it can, and it will.

In one of the good books I read there was this one trader telling his story of trading and he had this comment after unsuccesfull trade he took, wich got nailed in my head and everytime i see an extra ordinary fall or rise in the market I remember it and it keeps me from going against that short term trend everytime. "Do not buy/enter against the mania" , it might be unexplainable but it will rip you apart if you try to fight it.

Anyway, just sharing some thoughts. Maybe they'll be helpfull to someone.

It has been a wild ride up! I think you can get a bit gun-shy when the market moves so quickly but that can mean missing out on a great opportunity!

I would be interested to know if/how people have been entering the market with such upward momentum (keeping inline with Jacko's strategy). Like you said - the retracements have been minor but they have been there. I am personally a big fan of the round numbers and if you watch how price has interacted with them on this big ride you can see clear areas of support and resistance which I have used to trade.

What is the proper way for Jacko traders to enter during this kind of momentum? Or are true Jacko traders waiting?

Regards,

Dan