DislikedTrouble is, if we take a look at some previous moves, 23 September-06 October, 20-27 October etc, significant pullbacks aren't always there.
Do we do as the market tells us, or as we hope the market will act?Ignored
Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain
- #5,726
- Edited 4:52pm Dec 16, 2008 2:57pm | Edited 4:52pm
Short wasn't the way to go today.
Attention Valued Client:
The equity level in your account has fallen below the margin required to maintain your open positions. Any and all positions that were open to market fluctuation have now been liquidated, pursuant to the Foreign Exchange Brokerage Agreement.
Global Forex Trading
Division of Global Futures & Forex Ltd.
Good thing this was a DEMO account LOL.
This is a testament to my position that demo accounts are useless except to learn the very basics of trading and how to use the broker's software. After trading conservatively in the demo account for a month, I was up 78%. When I lost a good chunk of my profits today when the Euro shot up, I got pissed and said, heck it's a demo account, who cares, and started trading 5 100K lots at 1:400 leverage and watching the ticks. I'm a newbie and not a daytrader. I'd normally just stay out of the market on days leading up to a big news day (which I did on my real account), and definitely I take a set-it and forget it (until I get an alert.) But if I went long, wowee would I be rolling in play money!
I wanted to see how easy it is to blow an account out getting very aggressive but not purposely trying to blow it out - achieved that objective.
What's funny is I've been waffling on whether we have a trend reversal. I was very convinced a few days ago we were in a reversal so I actually was going counter trend still going short on the EUR. I should have stuck with my gut and went long. While I don't think we are seeing a long-term trend reversal, definitely a short term trend reversal - be interesting to see how much farther the EUR goes.
I noted that I had drawn a Fib from the high for 4865 on 9/21 to the low of 2328 at end of October. In that case we blew past the 61.8 fib retracement today. But I think I need to try the Fib line from 7/13 with high of 6037. In that case the Fib 50 retracement is about 4150. Could this be a major resistance point determining if this is a short term retracement or a mid-term trend reversal?
Attention Valued Client:
The equity level in your account has fallen below the margin required to maintain your open positions. Any and all positions that were open to market fluctuation have now been liquidated, pursuant to the Foreign Exchange Brokerage Agreement.
Global Forex Trading
Division of Global Futures & Forex Ltd.
Good thing this was a DEMO account LOL.
This is a testament to my position that demo accounts are useless except to learn the very basics of trading and how to use the broker's software. After trading conservatively in the demo account for a month, I was up 78%. When I lost a good chunk of my profits today when the Euro shot up, I got pissed and said, heck it's a demo account, who cares, and started trading 5 100K lots at 1:400 leverage and watching the ticks. I'm a newbie and not a daytrader. I'd normally just stay out of the market on days leading up to a big news day (which I did on my real account), and definitely I take a set-it and forget it (until I get an alert.) But if I went long, wowee would I be rolling in play money!
I wanted to see how easy it is to blow an account out getting very aggressive but not purposely trying to blow it out - achieved that objective.What's funny is I've been waffling on whether we have a trend reversal. I was very convinced a few days ago we were in a reversal so I actually was going counter trend still going short on the EUR. I should have stuck with my gut and went long. While I don't think we are seeing a long-term trend reversal, definitely a short term trend reversal - be interesting to see how much farther the EUR goes.
I noted that I had drawn a Fib from the high for 4865 on 9/21 to the low of 2328 at end of October. In that case we blew past the 61.8 fib retracement today. But I think I need to try the Fib line from 7/13 with high of 6037. In that case the Fib 50 retracement is about 4150. Could this be a major resistance point determining if this is a short term retracement or a mid-term trend reversal?
- #5,727
- Dec 16, 2008 4:29pm Dec 16, 2008 4:29pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Dec 2005 | 2,298 Posts
Same Whore .... Different Dress
- #5,729
- Dec 16, 2008 4:59pm Dec 16, 2008 4:59pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Dec 2005 | 2,298 Posts
Same Whore .... Different Dress
- #5,730
- Dec 16, 2008 11:13pm Dec 16, 2008 11:13pm
if it breaks its current resistance, we might see it going back up all the way to 4200 from the looks of the weekly chart
looks like a pin bar forming on the daily charts now, so possibly going back south in the next few days?
had anyone played the bounce on 4200 and had it hit, would have been hardly any drawdown and be floating about 85 pips as of now at 4116
not sure what to expect now, either continue up.. or pin bar will form and confirm it down, and it will indeed go down. should be interesting, hope I learn something new from this
- #5,733
- Edited 6:10am Dec 17, 2008 2:22am | Edited 6:10am
- Joined Feb 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,228 Posts
- #5,734
- Dec 17, 2008 4:32am Dec 17, 2008 4:32am
will continue long until my signal says otherwise.......
You can see my last trades if you click on my journal......
I will update it with this weeks trades so far this evening.
I'm a new student of this method and thread so I'm curious about the comment in your journal that you were "breaking your own rules" ... are your rules different from the ones taught on this thread by Jacko ?
even if your getting more agressive with some of your trades ... you have kept it in check enough to expand the number on your bottom line ... I would think that's what leads to success in the long run ...
- #5,735
- Dec 17, 2008 4:59am Dec 17, 2008 4:59am
- Joined Nov 2008 | Status: You must obey the dance commander | 2,038 Posts
- #5,737
- Dec 17, 2008 12:59pm Dec 17, 2008 12:59pm
- Joined Nov 2008 | Status: You must obey the dance commander | 2,038 Posts
I don't know if the Euro is heading higher or not, there seems to be so many conflicting opinions at the moment I think all you can do is trade what you see.
For me shorting the Euro has looked like suicide over the last few days. If we are heading down I would suggest waiting until the market tells us it's ready otherwise Buys are treating me well at the moment.
Although I am no expert by far, so don't pay too much attention to what I have to say, lol
!
Regards,
Dan
For me shorting the Euro has looked like suicide over the last few days. If we are heading down I would suggest waiting until the market tells us it's ready otherwise Buys are treating me well at the moment.
Although I am no expert by far, so don't pay too much attention to what I have to say, lol
!Regards,
Dan
The fact that the correlation with crude oil, pound sterling and yen is not there, makes me think that something is pushing hard, nearly as hard as the drop if you look at the weekly chart. If the daily TL resist, we might test a low again, if we break 1.3600, 50%fib from 1.4865 to the low, we might head to 1.4. This market showed us that overbought/sold doesn't work very much without a crystal ball.
This is just my opinion, of course, probably too early to speak about a trend reversal.
Next stop? maybe 1.46 will hold, if it doesnt... mmmm 1.5?
- #5,740
- Dec 18, 2008 4:38am Dec 18, 2008 4:38am
- Joined Nov 2008 | Status: You must obey the dance commander | 2,038 Posts