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No Brainer Trades

  • #6,861
  • Dec 15, 2008 10:19am Dec 15, 2008 10:19am
Quoting Tori
I reckon I deserve a round of applause for such a fine display of impatience. Got in earlier at white line as judged on five min chart, instead of waiting for it to come back down to pink line area which is my solid well thought out line. I know my lines are accurate, and yet impatience gets in the way. Now I am back where I started. Off we go again, this time up.


But have another for honesty.



Whereas I'm suffering from indecision... or am I?
  • #6,862
  • Dec 15, 2008 10:30am Dec 15, 2008 10:30am
Expecting a retrace from 6149 as pair has just broken through 6099.

6149 is also 78.6% Fib which is not shown on this chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy151208.jpg Size: 231 KB
  • #6,863
  • Dec 15, 2008 10:49am Dec 15, 2008 10:49am
This is my targets for eurjpy with slight revision on first target. 125, then 126.02. chart shows my lines. I still dont know if it will take off properly. I have a strong feeling but I cant take a screen shot of intuition. anyway time will tell. While it stays above pink line I will keep in there, if it goes under I will be out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #6,864
  • Dec 15, 2008 11:05am Dec 15, 2008 11:05am
Quoting Tori
This is my targets for eurjpy with slight revision on first target. 125, then 126.02. chart shows my lines. I still dont know if it will take off properly. I have a strong feeling but I cant take a screen shot of intuition. anyway time will tell. While it stays above pink line I will keep in there, if it goes under I will be out.
What's your feeling about it going up there now that London has closed? Will you wait for Tokyo to open?
  • #6,865
  • Dec 15, 2008 11:06am Dec 15, 2008 11:06am
Watching 90.80 on USDJPY.
  • #6,866
  • Dec 15, 2008 11:10am Dec 15, 2008 11:10am
Quoting smittens4212
Watching 90.80 on USDJPY.
Nice downward TL from friday's close as well that hits 90.80
  • #6,867
  • Dec 15, 2008 11:11am Dec 15, 2008 11:11am
Quoting Grath
What's your feeling about it going up there now that London has closed? Will you wait for Tokyo to open?
I think it will slowly went its way up, problem is this is very very late for me so when I feel it has a few pips leeway I will put breakeven stop and set limit for profit and then go to bed. If it keeps going great, if it doesnt I am at least safe. cant do much else unfortunately. It is almost safe enough for me to make that play.
  • #6,868
  • Dec 15, 2008 11:26am Dec 15, 2008 11:26am
Well I am well safe enough to put brak even stop, have to put take profit at 125 because I wont be around to nurse it over the line. If I wake up and find a cool 100 plus pips that will be a bonus tonight. If I dont then so be it. This is where the line becomes really important because it would be sad if it nearly makes target and then drops like a stone. goodnight all.
  • #6,869
  • Edited 1:03pm Dec 15, 2008 12:44pm | Edited 1:03pm
Quoting Tori
Hi guys. I havent been posting lately because I lost my confidence a little. ......
Tori,
First, great to have you back.
Everyone, from experienced to newbies has confidence issues. I am with you on that. Here are some practical things for you (that you know, I'm sure):

1. Less lines on your chart - look at BRV postings and other big guys (steelhead for instance) they have one line only maybe 2. Everyday I erase all the lines on my charts and put only 2-3 above and 2-3 below the current position. easy on the eyes. easy on the brain.

2. Point only the obvious - mark lines that you are absolutely sure the rest of the world can point them out. simple. If everybody are looking there you bet you're going to have action there.

3. Avoid TL's - I know I will get hammered over this, but... it goes with rule No. 2. Obvious. Obvious. Obvious.

4. Use pivots and fibo's - use them to confirm your lines. After (!) you have placed your S/R's. If they coincide, and only "if", then it is a sign that more people will see those lines. Remember, this comes after rule No. 1. (attached my favorite fib indy).

5. Planning- You have good calls but did you write them down before or you just call them as they come. Trade your plan. only. period.

6. Deep SL - this was the one for me regarding confidence. cut your lot size by half and double the SL size. Let the trade breath. 50-70 pips. That means that you do not take a trade that has REAL potential less the 120 pips. Money management.

7. KISS - I am not romantic . keep it simple ... sunny.

8. Look for Sam seiden videos on the web. He talks about S/R. You will learn from him.

My friend,
you are not alone.
Keep the pips coming
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 ###Auto Pivot.mq4   15 KB | 422 downloads
  • #6,870
  • Dec 15, 2008 4:17pm Dec 15, 2008 4:17pm
Quoting RedCabbage
Hi Willowgal

13700 region looks good.
I have 4H s/r at 12697 and 12743 the latter being my 38.2 Fib from the daily chart.
Actually i am waiting for an inverted bucket pattern on the 15 min. chart to short the EUR
i entered today short at 1.3540 but it didn't work out, seems that there were nobody watching this level, although it is a good s/r
does any one know why??
  • #6,871
  • Dec 15, 2008 4:54pm Dec 15, 2008 4:54pm
Is BRV o.k.??? He hasn't posted on this thread or in his blog in quite a while. Needless to say, this IS NOT the environment to trade s/r, as major trend break-outs and major trend reversals are prone to happen at any moment (followed by periods of extended consolidation)...

Walt
  • #6,872
  • Dec 15, 2008 6:36pm Dec 15, 2008 6:36pm
Hi,

I'm sure Brv is just fine. There are plenty of ops for us all to take advantage of with the current turn on many of the pairs and especially for a seasoned trader like Steve.

These breaks, especially on the Euro are working just fine and along with fading is just another option we have on the table.

Next level for me on Eur/usd is 13766 which is a major R level I have closed part of my position and will consider adding some to it if 766 breaks.

Another one to watch is usd/chf I'm currently short in and looking towards 1.4120 which is major support.

Have a good day out there guys.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: srb2.gif Size: 40 KB
  • #6,873
  • Dec 15, 2008 7:00pm Dec 15, 2008 7:00pm
Quoting Siam
Hi,

I'm sure Brv is just fine. There are plenty of ops for us all to take advantage of with the current turn on many of the pairs and especially for a seasoned trader like Steve.

These breaks, especially on the Euro are working just fine and along with fading is just another option we have on the table.

Next level for me on Eur/usd is 13766 which is a major R level I have closed part of my position and will consider adding some to it if 766 breaks.

Another one to watch is usd/chf I'm currently short in and looking towards 1.4120 which...
What was your reasoning for shorting usd/chf at that level? Just trying to gain some insight
  • #6,874
  • Dec 15, 2008 7:22pm Dec 15, 2008 7:22pm
Quoting libb
What was your reasoning for shorting usd/chf at that level? Just trying to gain some insight
I was looking @ 1749 as a possible turning point but I missed the break. The momentum seemed to be there especially with euro making headway so I got in a little late.It was a major cluster support that broke which i'd been watching for a while. I've been away from this thread for too long and i'll try posting some more levels on other pairs i'm watching if i have time.

Cheers.
  • #6,875
  • Dec 15, 2008 10:01pm Dec 15, 2008 10:01pm
[quote=ady27;2419820]Tori,
First, great to have you back.
Everyone, from experienced to newbies has confidence issues. I am with you on that. Here are some practical things for you (that you know, I'm sure):

1. Less lines on your chart - look at BRV postings and other big guys (steelhead for instance) they have one line only maybe 2. Everyday I erase all the lines on my charts and put only 2-3 above and 2-3 below the current position. easy on the eyes. easy on the brain.

2. Point only the obvious - mark lines that you are absolutely sure the rest of the world can point them out. simple. If everybody are looking there you bet you're going to have action there.

3. Avoid TL's - I know I will get hammered over this, but... it goes with rule No. 2. Obvious. Obvious. Obvious.

4. Use pivots and fibo's - use them to confirm your lines. After (!) you have placed your S/R's. If they coincide, and only "if", then it is a sign that more people will see those lines. Remember, this comes after rule No. 1. (attached my favorite fib indy).

5. Planning- You have good calls but did you write them down before or you just call them as they come. Trade your plan. only. period.

6. Deep SL - this was the one for me regarding confidence. cut your lot size by half and double the SL size. Let the trade breath. 50-70 pips. That means that you do not take a trade that has REAL potential less the 120 pips. Money management.

7. KISS - I am not romantic . keep it simple ... sunny.

8. Look for Sam seiden videos on the web. He talks about S/R. You will learn from him.

My friend,
you are not alone.
Keep the pips coming[/quote

This is all such good advice and I have taken it all on board. It is funny you mention Sam Seiden videos because I have watched one of his several times in the past week. It did teach me a lot about guaging the strength of the buyers and sellers around resistance. Great to hear you recomend him though because it confirms I am on the right track. I thank you for the effort to write down all those rules and I am going to type them up and print them out. Also the fib as I have not really got that down well yet. Good pipping to you this week. toodles
  • #6,876
  • Dec 15, 2008 10:11pm Dec 15, 2008 10:11pm
Just thought I would mention something I learned the other day. Asian session only has 10 percent of action, London session has 40 percent, and new york, only 20 percent. So the crossover between the end of asia into London, and then London into NY is the best time to get a trade. That is why I have spent many hours during our day here, watching a pip up or down. Of course you get times when it moves, but on the whole, If you know there is not many people on deck, then it allows for time away. I know it all sounds obvious, but I really didnt know the true size of the variance between the main markets.
  • #6,877
  • Dec 15, 2008 10:52pm Dec 15, 2008 10:52pm
If you remember from last night, I said I would stay in eurjpy as long as it didnt come under my line, well it is still up there, and I am still in profit, and I have a target still of 125, and possibly 126.02. Certainly taking a long time. Taking advice Ady27, and cutting down lines.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #6,878
  • Dec 15, 2008 11:19pm Dec 15, 2008 11:19pm
Quoting Tori
If you remember from last night, I said I would stay in eurjpy as long as it didnt come under my line, well it is still up there, and I am still in profit, and I have a target still of 125, and possibly 126.02. Certainly taking a long time. Taking advice Ady27, and cutting down lines.Attachment
Good clean chart .
If you move your 121.49 to 121.66 you will find that this is s+r point...
  • #6,879
  • Dec 16, 2008 3:12am Dec 16, 2008 3:12am
Quoting Tori
If you remember from last night, I said I would stay in eurjpy as long as it didnt come under my line, well it is still up there, and I am still in profit, and I have a target still of 125, and possibly 126.02. Certainly taking a long time. Taking advice Ady27, and cutting down lines.Attachment
For hitting your target of 12500, and to balance out the one for impatience yesterday.
  • #6,880
  • Dec 16, 2008 3:55am Dec 16, 2008 3:55am
Quoting Tori
This is all such good advice and I have taken it all on board. It is funny you mention Sam Seiden videos because I have watched one of his several times in the past week. It did teach me a lot about guaging the strength of the buyers and sellers around resistance. Great to hear you recomend him though because it confirms I am on the right track. I thank you for the effort to write down all those rules and I am going to type them up and print them out. Also the fib as I have not really got that down well yet. Good pipping to you this week....
Hi Tori - have you got a link for this video ?

Thanks
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