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Spud's Predictive MTF Stochastics

  • #1,341
  • Edited 4:17pm Dec 13, 2008 10:46am | Edited 4:17pm
I am pleased to see the return of Spud with so much new material.
So many new things to learn.

I hope to find, in short, the time to study it.

Thanks Spud.


Lubo.
If I know how, I tell You!! Few but Good!!
  • #1,342
  • Dec 13, 2008 3:31pm Dec 13, 2008 3:31pm
Quoting M_j
Thanks Spud,

1. I suppose this is a new idea of yours and not yet thoroughly tested in live trading, or do I miss something ?

Will you only use the combination and the new filter or also the Rope in your personal live trades you plan to show forth?

2. How long have you actually trading the Stochastic Ideas yourself live.
The MTF The Escalator to Pips Strategy thread dates April 4, 2007
just curious.

3. Still would love to hear what amount in % do you usually use for 'Puting Value into PIPS'

Thanks MJ
1. Actually an old idea with some tweaking. The first MacD indicator is standard fare for momentum. The filtering is my puppy...it's tweaked so yes it needs some forward testing...don't go $$ crazy using it....yet.

2. Stochastics and Oscillators in general go back a long time for me. Escalator and MAcD were where I started...after I spent a few years throwing money away on every system in the book.

3. $1 PIP for every $5,000 is a good ratio this keeps your risk at 2% or less very easily. Over about $50,000 in the account it is better to drop your risk until you get to risk of fractions of a percent, so that dictates your trade %.
  • #1,343
  • Edited 12:55am Dec 14, 2008 12:13am | Edited 12:55am
Quoting Spudfyre
3. $1 PIP for every $5,000 is a good ratio this keeps your risk at 2% or less very easily. Over about $50,000 in the account it is better to drop your risk until you get to risk of fractions of a percent, so that dictates your trade %.
Thanks Spud,

At my broker for 1$ (I use EURO) a PIP I need about 14.000 Units.

which gives a leverage of about 3:1. (which is actually nearly 18 % of the possible leverage)


Which means with a 5000 $ account you would aim at about 0.4 % profit a day (20PIPs)


SOME INSPIRATION: for some of you who might be interested what 0,4 percentage a day could do http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/dollar.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/dollar.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/dollar.gif

if one can achieve constantly that - (and keep the same ration 'Account Balance to Value per 1 PIP' even when the account has grown)

you would have (assuming 250 trading days a year) compound:

after 1 year : 13564 $
after 2 years : 36798 $

and if you start today: you would by 1/15/2014 have 1000 000 $

well, mainly I just wanted to know what you meant by 'Putting Value in PIPs'

I have implemented some useful MoneyManagement option in my Bot system some years ago too.

MJ


Ps: before one get's to enthusiastic about the 1000 000 $ -- in praxis it would NOT work out like that as you properly have to pay taxis which changes the continuous compounding a lot.
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,344
  • Edited 3:10am Dec 14, 2008 1:28am | Edited 3:10am
Quoting Spudfyre
I think there are some components that can fit well into the EA format that ring the alarm bells in our head....


It may simply workout that if we have a chart full of MTF conditions (say M5 crossing M15 at xx%, 100,3,3 at xx%,...
Just a feedback of my own process!

Well, after implementing the first BOT version of Spud's mechanical approach - I went back to what Spud wrote about:
Quote
if we have a chart full of MTF conditions
For my new 'highly configurable advanced entry BOT version 2'http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif I made nearly all parameters adjustable.

* All Stochastic settings are changeable as well the time of each Time Frame Level.

As it says, I'm still working mainly on the entry: for that I added a chart full of MTF conditions over 5 TimeFrame Levels (many conditions repeat themselves over the TF levels but I still kept each freely adjustable)

* I have at the moment 132 Risk Conditions (66 SHORT and 66 LONG) - it sounds more than it is if you calculate the Five Levels and for instance Direction pointing of the PriceLines and OriginLines you've got already 10

which I can include or not include in my Risk check.

Well - not absolutely free as some depend on others.
(my first BOT had many things not adjustable and just a small number of conditions)

* On Level 1 one of the condition to be included is the Rope. ( I might extend that later easily to the other levels if I desire.)

* I don't use our mechanical Filter Stoch (M1) anymore

* I did not have yet a look if Spud's new 'dynamic MacD Filter' might be something worthy to include - still waiting to see what comes out of it ...



* Each of the 132 Risk Conditions (66 SHORT and 66 LONG) I can designate to be: ESSENTIAL or CONFIRMATION.

For a valid New Entry all my ESSENTIAL Condition must be met, the CONFIRMATION Conditions I use for trade size adjustments.


* A nice other notable feature is: Each Risk Condition can be prioritised by assigning a Count Value.


* I don't know yet for sure about exit. my rough thought now:
Define a second separate Exit Condition Map (which will properly overlap a lot with the Entry Conditions) and go the same way.


(for those interested: Just the risk check for one Level takes about 800 Lines code -- well this includes empty lines and quite some docs too)

__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,345
  • Dec 14, 2008 2:04pm Dec 14, 2008 2:04pm
Here's a trade with the Sonic Indicator, Dynamik and Combos....you can easily see how they all work together.

Trade signals start popping in the Transition Zone on the Dynamik. Depending how you want to enter, by the Combos, by the end of the transition zone at the Dynamik Cross...it is your choice. Also look how how the Sonic Indicator is showing us this trade by convergence and crossing the 76.4.

Take a good look at the square box on the Dynamik Filter chart. You will see this pattern many times for a great exit signal. The ultimate exit is where the red arrow points. See how the Tri-Signals and the MacD MA split apart..and the small peak prior to that where they come together as seen where the green arrow is. You will see this signal time and time again, a good one to post on the wall. As I said, this is a great exit confirmation.

If we wait...we get our M5 crossing up over the M15 to exit, or our Sonic breaking out from the oversold convergence.

You can see how our short trade ran the M15 nicely in one smooth move.

This is Nov 24 around 1:10 (EST +7) to 3:20. I decided I put Nov 24th to the test as there is a nice long trend with tons of false entries for the combos...so let's see how we do when we add the Dynamik.
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  • #1,346
  • Dec 15, 2008 9:03pm Dec 15, 2008 9:03pm
i beleive the momentum filter ll help a lot but if you pls can post more examples for different during the day for using everything together that ll add more understanding for the moves of the filter
thanks spud
  • #1,347
  • Dec 16, 2008 3:14am Dec 16, 2008 3:14am
Spud, once again thanks for Dynamik. I found it to be very reliable and think it can be also used as a stand alone system.

Regards/Harry
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  • #1,348
  • Dec 16, 2008 3:27am Dec 16, 2008 3:27am
Quoting Harry123
Spud, once again thanks for Dynamik. I found it to be very reliable and think it can be also used as a stand alone system.

Regards/Harry
hi Harry123,

just a question: What do you mean if you say you found it very reliable ?

as Spud showed it just recently - in which way did you check it that you could conclude it to be very reliable and do you have any statistics you could share.

thanks MJ
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,349
  • Dec 16, 2008 3:38am Dec 16, 2008 3:38am
Quoting M_j
hi Harry123,

just a question: What do you mean if you say you found it very reliable ?

as Spud showed it just recently - in which way did you check it that you could conclude it to be very reliable and do you have any statistics you could share.

thanks MJ
I demo traded using it as a filter and found that most of my entry signals were correct. I don't keep any records but about 90 percent of my trade went through with positive results although some I bailout with only 2 to 3 pips gain.

Regards/Harry
  • #1,350
  • Dec 16, 2008 3:41am Dec 16, 2008 3:41am
Quoting M_j
Just a feedback of my own process! 'highly configurable advanced entry BOT version 2'
....

Well, I have to say I'm not absolutely sure I will be able to finish this.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon13.gif It has become complicated.

Found many errors and fixed so far what I found .... but not sure what bugs are still left.

Still not giving up yet.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

My plan would be to be ready in about 3 month - to go live with it. (if it proves itself to be worthy)


So there is still some time left to get it right.


Happy trading to all of you. Yesterday I had a real bad trade - manual live trading - was lucky my stop loss was not hit and it turned around so closed with a very small profit.but this could have been bad - as I use on my small test live account real high leverage.
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,351
  • Dec 16, 2008 3:47am Dec 16, 2008 3:47am
Demo trade closed.
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  • #1,352
  • Edited 4:22am Dec 16, 2008 4:05am | Edited 4:22am
Nice one Harry - good example... Are you still using the combination entry combined with the chart above?

I've recently reverted back to Spuds old Skool MTF Stochs - the less mechanical approach - much like the PMTFS at the beginning of this thread and am enjoying it.

Keep posting some examples if you can thanks

BTW - nice divergence there too
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,353
  • Dec 16, 2008 4:26am Dec 16, 2008 4:26am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Nice one Harry - good example... Are you still using the combination entry combined with the chart above?

Personally I find this new filter overkill to be perfectly honest - I know we were all begging for a trend filter and this looks promising but personally I just can't stand to have too many indicators on my chart at one time, but thats just me

I've recently reverted back to Spuds old Skool MTF Stochs - the less mechanical approach - much like the PMTFS at the beginning of this thread and am enjoying it.

Keep posting some examples if you...
Cindy,
The first reading of the Dynamik was quite intimidating for me. However after demo trading for a few times, it is getting quite friendly actually. I am using it in conjuction with all Spud's methods including MTF. Attached is a profile of my trading charts.

Regards/Harry
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  • #1,354
  • Dec 16, 2008 5:08am Dec 16, 2008 5:08am
Another setup.
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  • #1,355
  • Dec 16, 2008 5:25am Dec 16, 2008 5:25am
Quoting Harry123
Cindy,
The first reading of the Dynamik was quite intimidating for me. However after demo trading for a few times, it is getting quite friendly actually. I am using it in conjuction with all Spud's methods including MTF. Attached is a profile of my trading charts.

Regards/Harry
You might be right Harry I won't discount it just yet. I just like to keep it as visually simple as possible but you never know maybe i will learn to like it.

Thanks for posting your trades - Watching with interest

Cheers
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,356
  • Dec 16, 2008 6:01am Dec 16, 2008 6:01am
Another set up with successful pip gains:
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  • #1,357
  • Dec 16, 2008 7:42am Dec 16, 2008 7:42am
Hi Spud,

I have been reading up on your post. Good stuff, but by adding more and more indicators it makes it more confusing. I prefer the old stochastic method and let your mind get used to it, instead of adding filters, etc. Just my 2c worth.

Everyone talks about making $$ in forex, but I have increasingly read about how many people get their trading platform frozen when placing trades or how profits have been eradicated, etc - methods used to ensure the profitable trader does not continue to be profitable because the dealer takes the other side of the trade. Is there a dealer out there that is honest and reliable?

Al
  • #1,358
  • Dec 16, 2008 9:48am Dec 16, 2008 9:48am
Quoting zebra7860
Hi Spud,

I have been reading up on your post. Good stuff, but by adding more and more indicators it makes it more confusing. I prefer the old stochastic method and let your mind get used to it, instead of adding filters, etc. Just my 2c worth.

Everyone talks about making $$ in forex, but I have increasingly read about how many people get their trading platform frozen when placing trades or how profits have been eradicated, etc - methods used to ensure the profitable trader does not continue to be profitable because the dealer takes the other...
I post all the systems as different ways to view the same thing. Some people are going to find it easier to use one than the other...but they are all based in the same "science". Combinations, of indicators will/may help narrow down an entry and keep people out of trouble.

Re: brokers; The largest danger to the small trader is setting fixed (small) stops. All our stops are seen and when they clump together there is usually a spike to take them all out...but I didn't say that.

The brokers keep the spread...in the markets we are the winners and losers...for one of us to win, someone else is losing. That is why you'll never find the perfect system or EA...it's a zero sum game winners=losers.

Brokers love traders, winners or losers. They'd probably be happier if we won, as we'd trade more with them.

It's the same old myth about casinos cheating..casinos don't need to cheat..they have a guaranteed income built into every game based on the house advantage.....brokers make money whether we win or lose. Both just make money with the money that passes through their hands.

I really don't find any one broker better than another...they all seem to have their issues and graces, just happening at different times. For me, it is about customer service, access to my funds, etc. and being able to talk to real people and having a single contact that knows me.

I've never had a broker freeze my account for winning. Some get a little testy at scalping, I just say bye-bye.
  • #1,359
  • Dec 16, 2008 11:04am Dec 16, 2008 11:04am
Would someone please explain how to set up the chart so that it appears the way the chart at post #493 does; that is with the price chart at the top and 7 stochastic charts below, all in the price chart window?

Thanks for any assistance.
  • #1,360
  • Dec 16, 2008 11:36am Dec 16, 2008 11:36am
DonJoe
Go to paper clip on top right of page and left click on it and a small window will open, then scroll down to Nov 15th. There you will find "All Stochastic V1.2.ex4"....Download this into your MT4 platform.
Alternately you can go to Post #509 on Page 34 of this thread for this indicator.

Kilo



DonJoe

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Chart Set up
Would someone please explain how to set up the chart so that it appears the way the chart at post #493 does; that is with the price chart at the top and 7 stochastic charts below, all in the price chart window?

Thanks for any assistance.
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