Taken a short on the EJ. Lets see how it plays out.
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Sorry this feedback is posted well after the fact of your trade...
I would have drawn the Andrews PF with the 1st point farther back in time. My 3 points are each major swing points. Drawn this way, there is a lot of confirmation for the medianline and parallels, including some apparent resonance with past PA before the 3 swing points even occurred. You can see that where you went short had actually broken above the upper-medianline-parallel (top thick purple line) and then had two retests where one might have chosen to go long. (Hopefully your short worked out if you bailed out with some profit or B.E.) I've included the MS (Modified Schiff 50% of Price & Time), and the SCH (50% of Price), which seem to be showing some resonance with PA but to a lesser extent. The pitchfork with the most resonance in this case, however, is the Andrews PF.
(FYI, the warning lines were made using Fibo Channels with the same slope and pitch as the corresponding PFs, and fibo levels of 1, 2, 3,... and 0, -1, -2, ...).
I have attached 2 charts of the EJ for comparison. One Hourly and the other a Momentum 55 (Constant Range Bars). The H1 does in fact confirm the ML
resonance dating back to the pivot high of 14th Oct 2008. Both have there merits but in this particular case the H1 comes up trumps. I find that sometimes the CRB are great as it gets rid of noises. I was not 100% confident with this trade due to the big build up around the 117-119 range. It was slowly restoring energy readying itself for a big move. Easier to say in hindsight.
I'm still playing around with the larger range bars. The smaller ranges ie 13 and 21 work quite well.
Thanks again for the feedback. I did get out for a 85 pips profit, so all in all i was happy.
Why is this forum has so little activities? Don't anyone trade with Fork anymore; one of most accurate trading tools around?
Here's the update of the Gbp/Usd (Hate using GU, EJ...that's just not right as far as symbologies go). Made more than -100+ ppts during Asian session today with this Schiff Fork.
Well done on the GU trade.Only joking! Well done on the GBP/USD trade today. Pitchforks, Action reaction lines are far superior to any squiggly line methodologies, and yet there are hundreds of threads with hundreds of replies and posts for these. People just need an indicator to tell them Buy/Sell etc etc. People think Trendlines, PF, AR are toooooo simple.... surely this isn't the grail?????
Anyway J. keep up the great work. Haven't had much of a chance to trade these last few months, but when i'm back and running, will definitely add my trades here.
Attached is an MT4 Script I found for creating a Super Pitchfork as Andrews talked of in his work. It works well as a script, so just upload it to the script folder under Experts and restart Metatrader.
The only problem I have with it is that it automatically creates the forks on the chart and cannot be used the way the MT4 pitchfork tool can be. So in my opinion it is not as flexible as it should be.
If anyone can alter it to be a true indicator, I believe it would be very useful.
As for trading with Pitchforks, it is extremely accurate, and I still use them, but not exclusively. Also the charts can get very cluttered if not used carefully as my last few posts show.
Remember, the attachment is a Script, not a straight indicator. Load it to the Scripts folder to use it.
Well done on the GU trade.Only joking! Well done on the GBP/USD trade today. Pitchforks, Action reaction lines are far superior to any squiggly line methodologies, and yet there are hundreds of threads with hundreds of replies and posts for these. People just need an indicator to tell them Buy/Sell etc etc. People think Trendlines, PF, AR are toooooo simple.... surely this isn't the grail?????
Anyway J. keep up the great work. Haven't had much of a chance to trade these last few months, but when i'm back and running, will definitely...
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Hi Nik:
Yeah, in Forex Factory here, there are tons of threads and forums that churn out a lot strange indicators and 'systems'. Been there done that in my younger years. All I need now is just my price actions, patterns and the fork. Ever since I started using it a few months ago; my perspective to the charts are improved many folds. As Tim Morge has mentioned, there are junctures in the market that people simply would NOT consider to enter without having the knowlege of the fork; and I can further testify this in the other forum that people were just making the wrong calls on directional bias. Well, I surely hope this forum created by Cat won't just wither away; as people like me are being 'forced' to frequent other 'wacky' forum and listen to their super duper indicators.
If you are 'listening' Cat, you should be the one around for a little updates; as far as I'm concern, this is one of the few forums that worth my time to frequent during my busy trading day. Take care.
Attached is an MT4 Script I found for creating a Super Pitchfork as Andrews talked of in his work. It works well as a script, so just upload it to the script folder under Experts and restart Metatrader.
The only problem I have with it is that it automatically creates the forks on the chart and cannot be used the way the MT4 pitchfork tool can be. So in my opinion it is not as flexible as it should be.
If anyone can alter it to be a true indicator, I believe it would be very useful.
As for trading with Pitchforks, it is extremely accurate,...
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Thanks for the sharing, Eclayf. But I'm just too stupid to figure this script thing out. I did put it on the script folder; how do I fire this thing up to have a peek?
Yeah, I notice your charts are quite cluttered with forks. Why don't you delete some of old forks that are not valid as the market transpires? If you want to keep the old forks around; you simply replace the three median lines with three trend lines; that will solve the problem of these old forks extending themselves forever to the future; that what i do on my chart all the time. That said, I really like your fork on the Eur/Jpy though; like Nik's second chart, they described price actions very well indeed. Take care.
Thanks for the kind words. You're not too stupid, the script is finicky. If you have placed it in the Scripts folder and it doens't work, then I don't know wha to tell you. It works on price action like everything else in MT. So you have to wait for it to actually load on the chart, even after you have applied it.
When I found it I tried it and couldn't make it work either, then all of a sudden it started working when price started moving. That is one of the reasons I think it would be much, much better if it were a true indicator and not a Script.
Wish I could remember which Russian forum I found that on, I'd send you there. I used Google Translate to read the forum when I found it. They have some really neat stuff on those forums.
Now, about cluttered charts. The problem with deleting old lines is that price ALWAYS respects them at some point in the future. Those old lines even work better than the normal "straight line" S/R levels most use. The only real problem is that "at the moment" price is following a different line.
If you look into the past on any chart, you will find that price, once it hits a median line intersection and turns, will always "run the line" or "walk the line" for a bit then take off again. Almost never fails, probably about 80 to 90 % of the time it will do that.
Also, Tim Morge is currently investigating what he calls "Phantom" median lines. Want to guess where those probably come from? Look at the last "Schiff Fork" you posted yourself. See where those first two peaks hit? That is an OLD median line from some where in the past and price has started to respect it.
This is all part of the way the whole Universe works. Circadian Rythms, Fibonacci Levels and Spirals, Fractal Replication and creation. The larger Median lines are built on the price action of smaller median lines, etc. If you look at Elliot Wave theory, you can see that amazingly clearly. Eacy Impulse Wave is made up of a smaller set of the Elliot Wave, so are every other aspect of the other waves, whether Impulse of Correction.
Which brings us to the true "holy grail" (oh crap I'm gonna get slammed now!) of trading. That is Price Action and Screen Time/ Discretion trading.
IF one can spend enough screen time to get a "feel" for the market they trade, then the most powerful computer ever created, the human brain/ mind will begin to make the 'connections' on all this and "gut feel" or "intuition" begins to work on those same set of principles. How do you think the "Greats" of trading developed Technical Analysis?
They spent literally hundreds, perhaps Thousands of hours charting. Their minds then began to see "circadian rythm" pattern in the chaos of the numbers and things like Elliot Waves, Median Lines, Fibonacci sequences and so on began to "emerge" or actually to be "seen" by someone for the first time.
Lest someone be in the "dark,' a "Circadian Rythm" is nothing more than a repeating pattern. The orbit of the planets, the moon, etc, are all Circadian Rythms. They are literally everywhere in "nature", even in politics. Look at the rise and fall of societies. Historians have even catalogued the actual pattern or "rythm" that societies progress through from birth to death of entire nations/ societies.
We all follow Rythms in some manner or another. Sleep is a Circadian Rythm. Hunge is circadian in nature.
These naturally occuring rythms all influence Price Action because Price Action is created by people, who are influenced by these rythms.
I used to think it strage that Andrews would base his Median Lines on "natural" laws like inertia, action/reaction and so on until I began to understand this sort of thing, then it began to make sense and I am now trying to put some of this into practice.
This all sounds really "heady" but it all boils down to some extremely simple "rules"
1. What goes up must come down. (Gravity)
2. For every action there is an opposite and equal reaction. (Median Lines)
3. Life follows predictable patterns. (Elliot Waves)
4. It takes a lot of energy for a trend to turn. (Inertia)
5. There is a rise and fall to all Price Action. (Sleep cycles)
6. Everything is built on smaller things. (Fractal Science/ geometry, etc.)
We, as human beings are part of all this and we follow all these rythms, cycles, "laws" as well. If we pay attention, we can begin to see them all around us in nature and if we pay attention to charts long enough, we can begin to see them working there as well.
Those who spend enough time to begin to see them, and to work with instead of agains them become (eventually) great traders. Those who don't remain in the great sea of human mediocricy..
By the way, the waves on a beach and in the ocean follow all this as well. Look at the circles formes in a pond or lake when you throw in a couple of pebbles. The waves formes follow precise geometric expansion rules, same as price, and at the intersection of those waves you find chaos. Same as when a trend turns one way or another.
Which brings us to Soliton waves. A soliton wave is a single long term wave found in liquid systems that can travel great distances before loosing its impetus. Mariners call them "rogue waves" on the ocean, Hydrologists call them Soliton waves in closed systems such as canals.
They occur when enough converging forces create a larger wave with a lot of "pent up" energy, and it all travles along in a direction for a very long time.
Doesn't that sound like a Trend to you? If you get on a trend, you can simply ride it if you learn how. Still, in that Soliton wave and in the Trend, there are always the same forces at work in smaller internal patterns that eventually dissipate the energy of it and it ends, turns, returns to the mean, etc.
So, Spend lots of time in front of charts, learn the principles of Median Lines, Waves, remember the laws of "nature" (see short list above) and have fun with this. It really is fun! If you get too "serious" about it you will loose perspective and fail far too often.
By the way, the truly great athletes who reach "star" status all have a lot of fun getting there. YES, it takes a lot of work, but look where it goes!
There are at least two trading simulators here on FF that I know of and each one uses past info, which in my mind, because it follows all of these same principles, laws, etc., is just as good as future info to come, and they both will allow you to spend literally thousands of hours in front of a screen in a very short time.
Each of them, Vhands and Trading Simulator will allow you to use all that wonderful past data to begin to "see" all this for yourself. I personally use the newer one, Trading Simulator, as it was easier for me to install and use. Vhands is a bit complicated for me.
Good trading to you all, keep it simple, learn the basics, keep your eyes open to how natural law affects trading and may you all become billionaires having fun doing something you really enjoy doing. See you 'round the forums and my thanks to FF for an awesome community from which I am learning more than I can say.
Thanks for the kind words. You're not too stupid, the script is finicky. If you have placed it in the Scripts folder and it doens't work, then I don't know wha to tell you. It works on price action like everything else in MT. So you have to wait for it to actually load on the chart, even after you have applied it.
When I found it I tried it and couldn't make it work either, then all of a sudden it started working when price started moving. That is one of the reasons I think it would be much, much better if it were a true indicator...
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Hi Clay:
Thank you very much for a very lengthy and interesting posts. It brings back a bit of nostalgia to me indeed; bringing me back some more than 10 years ago when I started to read and learn Fibonacci and Dave Allman's Elliott Wave. In that regards, I am very much in line with what have been presented to me. Other than Fibs and Wave counts; I'm always into patterns and harmonic patterns as well. Over the years, I found that, pattern recognitions are one of most reliable trading tools around. Just for the sakes of an example, around the vicinity of the two spikes on that old downward sloping fork, the Gbp/Usd had resolved herself into Gartley 222 bottoming pattern with PERFECT fibonacci configurations. I really had fun detecting that in real time couple of days ago last week. Funny that i mentioned that to a forum in FF and these guys were just making an ass out of me. hehe...I don't really care as long as I was able to see what most were blinded at that particular juncture of the market and made quite bad market calls. I guess, one of the major reasons I like Pitchfork so much probably it is due to the fact that the pitchfork is ALSO based on force and vibrations; just like in Elliott Wave. Thank you for those two links for the simulator; I will definitely check it out. And thank you for spending the time to show me some pointers on my chart; really interesting stuffs Tim Morge is looking into these days! Take care.
Why is this forum has so little activities? Don't anyone trade with Fork anymore; one of most accurate trading tools around?
Here's the update of the Gbp/Usd (Hate using GU, EJ...that's just not right as far as symbologies go). Made more than -100+ ppts during Asian session today with this Schiff Fork.
Have a good one
J.
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because there is too much human error in drawing it. you would draw one and hope that the market goes along with it. most of the time people get it wrong.
besides there are a lot of indicators that draw it for you. shi channel, etc.
because there is too much human error in drawing it. you would draw one and hope that the market goes along with it. most of the time people get it wrong.
besides there are a lot of indicators that draw it for you. shi channel, etc.
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No 1. Too many errors in defining a fork is not an explanation to the cause of the infrequent participations of this forum. The more you draw, the more you will come to know the market price structures and in the process, cultivating a strong market sense in real-time; the more accurate you will become. You know why people HATE Elliott Wave? Because most of them think it's too subjective. When it comes to prices structures, patterns and wave counts; they have to be subjective in order for it to work. Yes, there are Advanced GET count it out for you as well.
No 2. The financial markets are never meant to be constructed in an 'objective' and 'mechanical' manner; you probably aware that NO ONE talks about mechanical trading systems anymore, right? Because they will NEVER work. Sure in tradestation 2000i, i have many versions of auto pitchforks with Gann Lines as well; do they work? The answer is a definitive NO. I was a product specialist for the bankrupted Telerate years ago; I have seen and created tons of systems and indicators under the request of 'reputable' banks such as Citibank; HSBC....My conclusion is these so call 'traders' in these kind of crooked banks knew NOTHING about trading. These guys treated trading as a 9-5 job.
My conclusion about the financial markets is that they cannot be traded or treated using scientific logic, cannot be viewed as a mechanical entity; and unless someone who, over many years, truly develop the skills in 'reading' the market feelings through price structures, wave counts and some forms of pattern recognitions; the probability of become successful is very small. Just like any form of USEFUL TA tools, unless one is willing to spend hours and months into perfecting the art of pinpointing those three pivots; pitchfork will be just another useless tool to him/her.
In defence of discretionary trading, it is sort of like dancing. If you have ever been on an "open" dance floor, say like in a country western bar or a ballroom of some kind, you know that there are a few rules, but loooooooooots of human discretion in the process.
The "flow" of the dancers on the flow is all in the same direction, but occasionally you see a couple dancing "counter" to the flow. We'll take country western dancing as the example because I am more familiar with it than ballroom dancing.
Everyone is on the floor at the same time, sometimes hundreds of couples. Some dance west coast swing, some east coast swing, some straight swing, two step, Texas two step, traveling two step, half time, just to name a very few of the popular dance steps. Thing about it is that more likely than not, they are all going in the same direction, an and one collides, no one gets hurt and everyone has a lot of fun.
It looks chaotic, but in reality there are lots of smaller sets of rules in play. If you look at one couple, that is very plain and a good set of partners make it look like music in motion.
Trading isn't much different. Lots of smaller sets of trading "system" rules in play, all pretty much going in the same direction as the trend, or a few in counter trend style. The only ones who get truly hurt are the ones who ignore the rules and end up colliding with someone else's strategy. Those in Forex would be the newbies who provide so much liquidity for everyone else.
It looks chaotic, but really all that Price Action is made up of millions of rule based decisions by all the participants. The "true" rules of the "dance" in the case of trading anything is what has been stated so very many times by the "Greats" of trading, Andrews, Dow, Merchal (who most never heard of, but how predicted the Dow Average 18 months in advance, copyrighted his chart and missed by fractions really in each swing of his chart compared to what actually happened), Babson, Fibonacci, Elliot, Morge more recent times and several others.
Learn those basic rules, gain the "floor time" (chart time in trading) and you too can make it look easy, fun, musical and like poetry in motion.
It took me about a year to get really good at dancing, but when I did I could dance with any partner, even one who had no experience at all, and make the dance look simple, easy, musical and like she had been dancing most of her life.
Trading isn't any different, no aspect of life is. There are basic rules, a "flow" to learn to become accustomed to, a rythm to follow and wallah!, you have a new Fred Astair looking for his Ginger Rogers. Phil Nel in his thread here on FF talks incessantly of the "flow" or the "rythm" of the market, learn it!
I love this quote, "Those who say "it can't be done" are always being interrupted by those actually doing it."
Or how 'bout this one, "Can't never could!" Or this one, "Argue for your limitations, and sure enough, their yours!" How 'bout this one, "Lead, follow, or at least get out of the way!"
I have talked with many and researched literally thousands of hours of strategies, methods and it all boils down to this, just like dancing's rules, there are rules for successful trading.
1. What goes up must come down. (Gravity)
2. For every action there is an opposite and equal reaction. (Median Lines)
3. Life follows predictable patterns. (Elliot Waves)
4. It takes a lot of energy for a trend to turn. (Inertia)
5. There is a rise and fall to all Price Action. (Sleep cycles)
6. Everything is built on smaller things. (Fractal Science/ geometry, etc.)
Want to tarde Elliot Waves? Then learn what they are and how to identify the major ones and they will appear on every chart in every time fram you can find. Then learn the flow and go with it.
Want to trade Fibonacci, it's not rocket science, just takes some "floor time" to learn the dance. Coincidentally, Fibs will help you find waves and waves will help you find Fibs. Amazing huh? Oh,,,, the 20 Moving Average and the 10 Moving average have an uncanny way of following both! Maybe that's because they are built on Price Action that follows the "dance" of both. So you could trade Moving Averages too, looking for Wave signlas or Fib levels and it will work. You just need "floor time" to learn the dance involved.
Same with any and every other strategy or method out there. Not one of them is significantly better than another one. They are all just visual aids to help you see Price Action, shorten the learning curve in the dance and to help you find that "Rythm" in the dance flow.
Everyone is different, my brother loves waves and counting them. I like Moving Averages coupled with Forks and Fibonacci Expansions to help me find good Price Action setups.
Find a dance you like, can understand and "see" then DANCE IT! Learn the flow, learn to "see" the patterns of your particular trading dance and quit listening to "gurus" who want your money. Quit arguing about which one is "best" they all work. Learn to use the mind God gave you and DANCE!
Oh, and finding a mentor for your particular style of dance would be a great thing. They can help you learn the steps and the rythm of the dance.
I have talked with many and researched literally thousands of hours of strategies, methods and it all boils down to this, just like dancing's rules, there are rules for successful trading.
1. What goes up must come down. (Gravity)
2. For every action there is an opposite and equal reaction. (Median Lines)
3. Life follows predictable patterns. (Elliot Waves)
4. It takes a lot of energy for a trend to turn. (Inertia)
5. There is a rise and fall to all Price Action. (Sleep cycles)
6. Everything is built on smaller things. (Fractal Science/ geometry, etc.)
Clay & Jeff,
While following jharteam's fork trails, this thread and postings were found. If there is an award for a posting or article, this Clay's summing could definitely be nominated for the best award for FF's 2008 articles.
Everybody, most of everybody, in business, or in life or here FF itself, is talking about where or how to go there, which is making money. However, not many are talking about where you are or where you are starting in the 2 dimention chart of price and time.
PA, MAs & indicators show the past and the PA & Fib show the current with a little glimpses of the future. Pitchfork looks like it can provide another "what if" for the direction of price in time.
Please, continue showing more of your wisdom in 2009.
May Pip God be with you more in 2009!
While following jharteam's fork trails, this thread and postings were found. If there is an award for a posting or article, this Clay's summing could definitely be nominated for the best award for FF's 2008 articles.
Everybody, most of everybody, in business, or in life or here FF itself, is talking about where or how to go there, which is making money. However, not many are talking about where you are or where you are starting in the 2 dimention chart of price and time.
PA, MAs & indicators show the past and the PA & Fib show the current with a little glimpses of the future. Pitchfork looks like it can provide another "what if" for the direction of price in time.
Please, continue showing more of your wisdom in 2009.
May Pip God be with you more in 2009![/quote]
Hi FXCROSS:
Thank you for your comment and Healthy and Prosperous New Year to you. Apologize for the late reply as there were things needed to tend to. You are very much correct in that all things in life are started with an 'action' and later on the 'reaction' will transpire accordingly to the actions being taken previously. Time and again, the pitchfork has shown its prowess in terms of resolving the current 'events' in providing the future postures with extreme accuracy. Although my previous methodologies are also time tested as 'legitimate' as far as profitability goes; my trading has an instant improvement many folds in respect to deciphering price actions on the first day I decided to use Andrew's Pitchfork as my main trading tool.
I must admit, however, that my speed of improvement on the usage of the fork is largely credited to my years of hard works on trend lines and pattern recognitions (Most think these are the basics in the world of technical analysis). That said, I have seen MOST people cannot decipher the correct trend line and especially the patterns while they are STILL in the processing of resolutions. Such case I just mentioned has been consistently surfacing with ALL the people I come to contact with; across countries, cultures and of different creed and background. To me, THIS is the ultimate flaws of human minds when it comes to trading. Sure, there is one person mentioning that a lot of people relying on the usage of the indicator Shi Channel; because most people can not manually draw the pitchfork with precision (he's correct on such regard). As with any indicator, it's creation is based on price actions (the ultimate leading indicator); and hence, Shi Channel is ALSO a lagging indicator when it comes to 'repostioning' the fork. I can testify my market entry is way better than the Shi Channel simply because my brain and the Andrew's Pitchfork has detected something way in advance before the Shi Channel 'shift' its posture (a lot of instances, the Shi Channel is way too late to generate a long/short trigger).
I believe in traditional methodologies; people who read the tapes, traders who use pencils to draw patterns and trend lines, traders who on a daily basis updating his points & figures charts and of course the time and statistically tested Andrew's Pitchfork; in which its tenure in correctly pointing out that price actions move in quandrant or standard deviations and it has the correct notion of "Where there is an action exerted; there will be a similar reaction being resolved in the future"
Please do not hesitate to contribute on your drawing of pitchfork as well. There is no such thing as being too 'green' or 'experienced' when it comes to contributions. Take care.
This is a trade I took on 12/18/2008 in the Gbp/Usd pairs. Surely, the mere use of Andrew's Pitchfork is sufficient enough in extracting valuable price vibrations out of the market; if one doesn't want to bother with 'extra lines' on the already great chart; being beautifully embellished by the Andrew's Pitchfork. I also made used of Fibonacci Channels to illustrate the price harmonics of the market; and how the channels interacting with the pitchforks. Again, sliding parallels would do just fine as well....I guess I'm talking to myself here; but that's cool; as long as some passerby pick up the prowess of this methodology. Take care.
