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  • #50,021
  • Dec 12, 2008 9:44am Dec 12, 2008 9:44am
Ok chicky i thought you wanted to go long for a small profit from 3400 to 3500 if it were to break, got your point!

The bailout being now under the umbrella of the Whitehouse can still be done, more waiting...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/1..._n_150513.html
Traders are smartasses
  • #50,022
  • Dec 12, 2008 9:55am Dec 12, 2008 9:55am
Quoting psiholog
the pa is where it should be...if not higher until the next chapter begins of news favoring the safety of US and weakness of EU..if that will even happen again.

I completely agree with you, however, I tend to think the dollar will continue to strengthen, it's just a matter of when. I certainly believe the PA is up for now, and sentiment is certainly dollar negative and euro positive. Like I've said in previous posts, I will never fight the market, but my long term byas is still dollar positive. I currently have a short in the 1.2800's, a long at 1.3100 and a short now at 1.3412. I will keep all open for now with the 1.3412 having a stop of +1. Good luck and happy trading.
  • #50,023
  • Dec 12, 2008 9:57am Dec 12, 2008 9:57am
sorry whats PA
  • #50,024
  • Dec 12, 2008 9:58am Dec 12, 2008 9:58am
Quoting trading801
sorry whats PA
Price action, those candles we see forming in the charts
Traders are smartasses
  • #50,025
  • Dec 12, 2008 10:04am Dec 12, 2008 10:04am
Quoting britc17
I completely agree with you, however, I tend to think the dollar will continue to strengthen, it's just a matter of when. I certainly believe the PA is up for now, and sentiment is certainly dollar negative and euro positive. Like I've said in previous posts, I will never fight the market, but my long term byas is still dollar positive. I currently have a short in the 1.2800's, a long at 1.3100 and a short now at 1.3412. I will keep all open for now with the 1.3412 having a stop of +1. Good luck and happy trading.
having said that... EurGbp is almost close to 0.9000 a very important resistance... So, we might expect the euro to move down rapidly compared to the pound...
  • #50,026
  • Dec 12, 2008 10:04am Dec 12, 2008 10:04am
I'm short with tight SL....looks like the greenback is picking up some strength...
  • #50,027
  • Dec 12, 2008 10:12am Dec 12, 2008 10:12am
Quoting Spsantos
Ok chicky i thought you wanted to go long for a small profit from 3400 to 3500 if it were to break, got your point!

The bailout being now under the umbrella of the Whitehouse can still be done, more waiting...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/1..._n_150513.html
Thanks for the link.
After watching pa for few years, I finally had to agree with our gurus that, though there are frequent profits in scalping, but there is nothing like big swings. Though I do want to scalp, but risk does not match rewards - or probably there is much more for me to learn. I like to play breaks, however, you do know when they start but you never know where they ended and went into retrace. Therefore, safe heaven for me is to watch a big break end (focusing on round figures) and then go for retrace. That is also by not opening positions at market price, but let pa to come to a place where it is less probable for it to continue its orginal trend. I tend not to go against the major trend, beleiving that it takes long time for a major trend to reverse.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #50,028
  • Dec 12, 2008 10:15am Dec 12, 2008 10:15am
current technical analysis. earlier this week i made mention of an upwards channel. 80% of the time upwards channels start breaking to the downside after repeated failed attempts on the upper wall. in this case though...it broke the upper wall hard and didnt stop until 1.3400. Since then...we have been ranging in a 100pip range which made it relatively easy to scalp (last night when bailout plan was rejected was a nice 200 scalp for me...up and down). Now...as most of us can see any retaps of 1.3400 = sell opportunity with tight stop loss above the current high. As things stand it is uncertain where we go next but a few critical levels of support/resistance are visible (black lines) with 2 trend lines worth nothing (red lines). For shorts to come back into play we have to break all horizontal supports..both red trendlines as well as the original channel upper wall. Until then...this is scalp territory with direction unknown. Good pippin all

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #50,029
  • Dec 12, 2008 10:19am Dec 12, 2008 10:19am
Eur Gbp touches multi year key resistance at 0.9000!
  • #50,030
  • Dec 12, 2008 10:33am Dec 12, 2008 10:33am
Quoting trading801
sorry whats PA
Price Action - the most important term and element to learn in trading.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #50,031
  • Edited 10:44am Dec 12, 2008 10:40am | Edited 10:44am
Quoting psiholog
current technical analysis. earlier this week i made mention of an upwards channel. 80% of the time upwards channels start breaking to the downside after repeated failed attempts on the upper wall. in this case though...it broke the upper wall hard and didnt stop until 1.3400. Since then...we have been ranging in a 100pip range which made it relatively easy to scalp (last night when bailout plan was rejected was a nice 200 scalp for me...up and down). Now...as most of us can see any retaps of 1.3400 = sell opportunity with tight stop loss above...
Trying to learn from you. I did a similar analysis from what I have learned from you about the channels. We may also draw three channels, upper wall of middle channel is around 1.3400 and its lower wall is around 1.3200. At present we are somewhere in the centre of middle channel, probably going down to touch its lower wall.

I am sorry that I am not in a positiion right now to attach a chart because of a slow connection in this part of the world. However, you may like to look at the chart from this angel as well. Just a thought - I am big fan of yours and learning from you.

CORRECTION:
Lower wall of middle channel is around 1.3300
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #50,032
  • Dec 12, 2008 10:43am Dec 12, 2008 10:43am
Quoting Chicky
Trying to learn from you. I did a similar analysis from what I have learned from you about the channels. We may also draw three channels, upper wall of middle channel is around 1.3400 and its lower wall is around 1.3200. At present we are somewhere in the centre of middle channel, probably going down to touch its lower wall.

I am sorry that I am not in a positiion right now to attach a chart because of a slow connection in this part of the world. However, you may like to look at the chart from this angel as well. Just a thought - I am big fan...
yes, you are right. We might experience a sell-off on break.
  • #50,033
  • Edited 11:14am Dec 12, 2008 10:54am | Edited 11:14am
Quoting Chicky
Trying to learn from you. I did a similar analysis from what I have learned from you about the channels. We may also draw three channels, upper wall of middle channel is around 1.3400 and its lower wall is around 1.3200. At present we are somewhere in the centre of middle channel, probably going down to touch its lower wall.
i see what you mean..good job. here is a tip for future reference. when pa starts ranging sideways as has happened for the past 24 hours the channel becomes a horizontal channel (hence the multiple black lines i showed). This means that we can go anywhere from there and once that sideways range is broken is when the upward channel comes back into play. To benefit from the sideways range though...look closely on the 1min/5min charts to see where pa has encountered support/resistance most often. those level becomes crucial if you want to scalp this range.

For example right now i have 1.3405/1.3355/1.3335/1.3305/1.3275 as horizontal supports/resistances. Lets say you put a sell at the higher level..1.3405. How do you know when to take profit?...when strong support is encountered at one of the lower supports. At this time note we crushed through 2 levels but 1.3305 wasnt even tapped therefore we can consider that as a low for now...at this point you may choose to close short position or lock in half the profit (you could risk with half the position because breakout can happen at any time). Knowing 1.3305 is the strong support at the moment...we look at the upper levels to see which becomes resistance..we passed 1.3335 so i am looking at 1.3355 now. If we cannot pass that level..i may short again. Hope this all made sense haha

Note that alot of entries are based on "gut feeling" or judging the strength of bears and bulls as pa moves too fast sometimes to "take your time for confirmation" that a level has become support/resistance...this is a tough skill to learn but time will teach you

Edit: i chose not to enter short again at 1.3355 as pa on the 1min chart can possibly be an inverted h&s...at this time im looking for the upper and lower levels of the range again...1.34 or 1.3275..or even a breakout before my next entry...my gut feeling says things can go either way here so no entry for me
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #50,034
  • Dec 12, 2008 11:22am Dec 12, 2008 11:22am
[quote=psiholog;2415706]i see what you mean..

Exactly. As I see it now, the middle channel (at present 1.3400-1.3300) is in fact a sideways. Thanks.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #50,035
  • Dec 12, 2008 11:23am Dec 12, 2008 11:23am
Quoting psiholog
i see what you mean..good job. here is a tip for future reference. when pa starts ranging sideways as has happened for the past 24 hours the channel becomes a horizontal channel (hence the multiple black lines i showed). This means that we can go anywhere from there and once that sideways range is broken is when the upward channel comes back into play. To benefit from the sideways range though...look closely on the 1min/5min charts to see where pa has encountered support/resistance most often. those level becomes crucial if you want to...
As always great advice, we seem to be right smack in the middle of this "channel" right now.

Cheers
  • #50,036
  • Dec 12, 2008 11:36am Dec 12, 2008 11:36am
Quoting zapper
Eur Gbp touches multi year key resistance at 0.9000!
i cant see resistance until 0.93-0.95 area
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  • #50,037
  • Dec 12, 2008 11:47am Dec 12, 2008 11:47am
IMO problem with that is that lil breakthrough is just a tiny wick on a weekly chart.I haven't looked at the weekly yet but that may be the resistance you are looking at.You just never know.
Like I read before ... show me where it's been and I can see where it may go.
Other than that put you dollar in the slot machine and pull.
  • #50,038
  • Dec 12, 2008 12:03pm Dec 12, 2008 12:03pm
Quoting 5ysfx
i cant see resistance until 0.93-0.95 area
psychological resistance, possibly...
  • #50,039
  • Dec 12, 2008 12:10pm Dec 12, 2008 12:10pm
Well I'm gonna stick with my shorts and leave em be.They are still + from yesterday.I think the top was shown.Key word THINK.Just waiting on 1 more break to the down to catch a few more before this day id over.Good Luck All !
  • #50,040
  • Edited 12:16pm Dec 12, 2008 12:14pm | Edited 12:16pm
Watch DJI. It has just closed a gap up. Moving to test 8500 strong resistance down.
The Thief of Wall Street
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