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Spud's Predictive MTF Stochastics

  • #1,301
  • Dec 11, 2008 11:18am Dec 11, 2008 11:18am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Well it worked in a sense that it wasnt there so stopped me looking for trades - When it did exist there was usually a small but profitable bounce until it hit the top and had the big bounce....

on the other hand there was also lots of hidden divergence that played well with elasticity trades going WITH the trend - this is where for example for a bullish hidden divergence the price makes a HIGHER LOW butt he stoch make a much LOWER LOW (chart below)

its slightly confusing at first but very easy to getthe hang of theres only 4 divergence signals...
It's great throwing these ideas around! Divergence is a great tool.
  • #1,302
  • Dec 11, 2008 11:32am Dec 11, 2008 11:32am
Heres today with some examples of both types of divergence
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR2.jpg Size: 141 KB
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,303
  • Dec 11, 2008 11:40am Dec 11, 2008 11:40am
Quoting Spudfyre
It's great throwing these ideas around! Divergence is a great tool.
Thanks Spud glad to have your approval -
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,304
  • Dec 11, 2008 11:58am Dec 11, 2008 11:58am
Really good job Cindy!!





Lubo.
If I know how, I tell You!! Few but Good!!
  • #1,305
  • Dec 11, 2008 12:04pm Dec 11, 2008 12:04pm
Great info Cindy

Divergence is a great indication of what is going on in the market.

Keep up the good work.

Kilo
  • #1,306
  • Edited 2:53pm Dec 11, 2008 2:35pm | Edited 2:53pm
Look at picture. see that there is a long entry combination already from Dec-2-2008, but if u see the last 2 days trend it's really almost up, and on H1 the stoch 100-3-3 is always above 76.4.

Now it seems that the trend up is towards the end, and on 15 minutes the last part is down.( I took 30 pips from there. )

I think that in this scenario is perhaps easier to find more valid long combinations, instead of short, on 5 min TF .



Lubo.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: stoch_comb_daily.gif Size: 53 KB
If I know how, I tell You!! Few but Good!!
  • #1,307
  • Dec 12, 2008 12:40am Dec 12, 2008 12:40am
Hi,

I greatly value Spud's method on this forum, but it would be nice to summarize his posts in one document. Has anybody done this? Just when I think I am up to par on his ideas, more posts will occur by others with tendency to move to a different direction, hence clouding my interpretation.

Has anybody summarized Spud's material? It would certainly help.

Thanks
Al
  • #1,308
  • Dec 12, 2008 1:06am Dec 12, 2008 1:06am
Quoting zebra7860
Hi,

I greatly value Spud's method on this forum, but it would be nice to summarize his posts in one document. Has anybody done this? Just when I think I am up to par on his ideas, more posts will occur by others with tendency to move to a different direction, hence clouding my interpretation.

Has anybody summarized Spud's material? It would certainly help.

Thanks
Al
Hii Zebra check the clipboard all the PDF's of the variations are on there
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,309
  • Dec 12, 2008 7:45am Dec 12, 2008 7:45am
i think all the lost trades are due to the weak momentum
if we can identify the weak momentum moves we can prevent lots of bad trades
  • #1,310
  • Dec 12, 2008 10:14am Dec 12, 2008 10:14am
The last 2 days I did a bit manual trading (next to programming a new more advanced Bot version) on a small live account.

I have to say I only used loosely the mechanical rules and properly had a bit of luck too. so nice Profit % for two days. (Shame it was my small account ;-)

Anyway closed all trades in Profit and go into weekend - programming.


Have a nice weekend!

Mj
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,311
  • Dec 12, 2008 11:10am Dec 12, 2008 11:10am
Quoting sarah2002
i think all the lost trades are due to the weak momentum
if we can identify the weak momentum moves we can prevent lots of bad trades
You are right. weak momentum is the problem
  • #1,312
  • Dec 12, 2008 11:19am Dec 12, 2008 11:19am
Quoting PippinL
You are right. weak momentum is the problem
Doesn't CindyXXXX's idea of only entering AFTER the H/L of the signal candle is breached one way of avoiding a stagnant no momentum trade. Its simple but does seem to filter out a good portion of stinky trades.
Isolate yourself from the herd
  • #1,313
  • Edited 12:31pm Dec 12, 2008 11:24am | Edited 12:31pm
Quoting sarah2002
i think all the lost trades are due to the weak momentum
if we can identify the weak momentum moves we can prevent lots of bad trades
Perhaps we can look at how far the price is moving in relation to the stochastics - this might be a good guage.

Like if the stoch moves from 80 to 20 and price moves 50 pips but then the stoch move back up to 80 and price only moves 15 pips - we could say the momenum favours the down side.

This sort of thing
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,314
  • Dec 12, 2008 11:27am Dec 12, 2008 11:27am
i ve no experience with the divergence filter

but maybe programmers can build a momentum indicator that measure the stochastic % change with the price move

i ve this indicator but i never managed to be able to read it maybe someone can help me or the programmers can modify it
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Stochastic Elasticity.ex4   3 KB | 404 downloads
File Type: mq4 Stochastic Elasticity.mq4   3 KB | 560 downloads
  • #1,315
  • Dec 12, 2008 11:31am Dec 12, 2008 11:31am
Quoting sarah2002
i ve no experience with the divergence filter

but maybe programmers can build a momentum indicator that measure the stochastic % change with the price move
Thats an interesting idea Sarah - would be a very cool indiactor to have i think
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,316
  • Dec 12, 2008 11:48am Dec 12, 2008 11:48am
Quoting sarah2002
i ve no experience with the divergence filter

but maybe programmers can build a momentum indicator that measure the stochastic % change with the price move

i ve this indicator but i never managed to be able to read it maybe someone can help me or the programmers can modify it
Hi Sarah,

I don't understand very well what u mean with % change?
Could u clarify what would be to show the indy?

Lubo
If I know how, I tell You!! Few but Good!!
  • #1,317
  • Dec 12, 2008 12:04pm Dec 12, 2008 12:04pm
Thought about Filter!

I think it is a good idea to find some kind of reliable filter.

But I would also like to draw attention that to many filtering will have also some other effect.


What I saw is - that sometimes a filter can get you in late (actually too late) and a good trade otherwise would have no room to succeed.

I'm not sure if I get the right vibration: but it seems to me that some of you (who are longer following Spud's threads) had recently more Losses than before.

If that is so: maybe one should go back to the time - before we played around with the mechanical rules ;-) and the Filter and so on..

Maybe the market did not change as much as one might think - but the trading approach changed ;-)

Just a thought of a recent member.

MJ
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,318
  • Dec 12, 2008 12:37pm Dec 12, 2008 12:37pm
well i ll try to explain my idea i see that cindy understands it too maybe she ll express it better than me because my english isn t that good

sometimes i see the stochastic say 14-1-1 makes a trigger and croos 10 line up for a long signal and it cross15m 14-3-3 up and that results in a good move sometimes not and price fall again to the down trend

for example if price moves for 25 pips up and that produces a 15% possitive move to the 14-3-3 15m stochastic up that means a strong momentum is here
if price moves 15 pips and stochastic moves 30% thats an elasticity means weak momentun something is wrong

i didnt discover yet a scale or a relation between the pips and stoch%
but i feel it

maybe with the help of a digital indicator we can manage to discover the relation
its all about momentum and force of the price/stoch
  • #1,319
  • Dec 12, 2008 1:06pm Dec 12, 2008 1:06pm
Hi Zebra

Were you able to find Spud's method. I have been trying to get it too. If you find it, please send the link to me as well. Thanks
  • #1,320
  • Dec 12, 2008 1:17pm Dec 12, 2008 1:17pm
Quoting Trendylines
Hi Zebra

Were you able to find Spud's method. I have been trying to get it too. If you find it, please send the link to me as well. Thanks
hi Trendylines! on the top you can click the attached files to download:

see the pic below. at my black dot ;-)

CindyXXXX was so kind and did many pdf - you also find some in Spud's other threads.

hope this helps.

MJ
Attached Image
__Thanks__ MJ
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