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  • #49,501
  • Dec 11, 2008 6:59am Dec 11, 2008 6:59am
Yeah, it's tough being a bear in this. I got stopped out of a trade... D'oh!
  • #49,502
  • Dec 11, 2008 6:59am Dec 11, 2008 6:59am
The real question here is what will happen to US if the dollar starts to get weaker. They have been getting new loans quite easily for now but if the dollar starts to get cheaper, it will be harder to push treasuries to the market and there has already been comments about treasuries being the next bubble.

Just one example:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008...bubble-danger/

Or other:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...tyWrk&refer=us

more:
http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ta...le&btnG=Search
  • #49,503
  • Dec 11, 2008 7:09am Dec 11, 2008 7:09am
Waiting for the unemployment news... let`s see if that would suggest a sell off... The game has to end somewhere. The trend being grossly bearish, can`t go wrong in a week...
  • #49,504
  • Dec 11, 2008 7:09am Dec 11, 2008 7:09am
interesting perspective on dollar valuation and treasury sales. There seems to be quite a demand for treasuries either way. If I were buying treasuries I would want to buy them with the weakest dollar instead of a strong dollar. The term bubble is being used a little differently with treasuries, but as people seek safe haventhey are spending rediculous amount of money for bills and bonds. One thing for sure, if dollar goes down, those treasures that are bought and paid for will be worth less. And if treasures sell off it's a double wammy for people buying treasuries for 0% yield.
  • #49,505
  • Dec 11, 2008 7:12am Dec 11, 2008 7:12am
Till the end of the year we will see the number of the beast @ 1,3666...

http://www4.picfront.org/picture/rTb...mg/1111208.gif

Look also at USD/CHF...

http://www4.picfront.org/picture/gl6...mg/2111208.gif
  • #49,506
  • Dec 11, 2008 7:13am Dec 11, 2008 7:13am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
interesting perspective on dollar valuation and treasury sales....
Note that yield on three month bills is already negative. This has never happened before.
  • #49,507
  • Dec 11, 2008 7:15am Dec 11, 2008 7:15am
sure hope so, I want to re load longs around 1.29 or so
  • #49,508
  • Dec 11, 2008 7:16am Dec 11, 2008 7:16am
Quoting egkid
Hello BTL
What about it we break it now 1.3243
Just watching i missed the Train Any good call
..... when price was around 1.2900, just open longs and leave your computer.

Now at this levels, it is hard to go long.
I see more up moves, but now seeing where a possible retrace will stop is a hard work to do.
  • #49,509
  • Dec 11, 2008 7:20am Dec 11, 2008 7:20am
hope this number holds euro down to 3000.....let's see
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Respect a man, and he will do all the more.
  • #49,510
  • Edited 7:40am Dec 11, 2008 7:20am | Edited 7:40am
Ok I think the market now needs to take a breather and we will see a nice retrace.

Levels to note are:

183 38% retrace of todays move - will probably give way
173 161% ext from yesterdays move - expect this to give way
164 50% of last swing move PLUS daily R2 confluence - this is where I see it turning back up.

I will watch PA carefully around these levels, possibly get in long from there or thereabouts.
Trend is still up, no reason to think its changed unless the low at 3080 is breached.
  • #49,511
  • Dec 11, 2008 7:21am Dec 11, 2008 7:21am
Today Euro broke to the upside out of flag pattern which has been forming on daily since October.

If the rule of flag pattern pertains this should go much higher.
  • #49,512
  • Dec 11, 2008 7:25am Dec 11, 2008 7:25am
On October 30th, a similar upside resulted in a spike prior to the resumption of the long term trend... Today also seems to be a long day... but let`s see the pattern of the candlestick at the close of the day...
  • #49,513
  • Dec 11, 2008 7:26am Dec 11, 2008 7:26am
Quoting Driver55

No ... No ....


hedging is one other thing ....


if you are locked then you have 2 opposite positions of equal weight.
In this condition the market may not make you bad, because what you lose by one party gains by the other.


When you are unlocked, then it means you've eliminated one of two positions because you expect that the market goes in one direction


EDIT : for example .. now i will unlock at 3238.. let's see... what happens

Would you mind giving me an idea of how you pick those points to lock and unlock.
  • #49,514
  • Dec 11, 2008 7:29am Dec 11, 2008 7:29am
There was a guest on Bloomberg TV just now (Boris Schlossberg) he thinks the Euro move is a fake-out and that it has only gone up because of yield and there is no other basis for its climb (same with EUR/GBP).
  • #49,515
  • Dec 11, 2008 7:30am Dec 11, 2008 7:30am
hello all, have good trading. do you think those indicators help me to have profit? thanks.
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  • #49,516
  • Dec 11, 2008 7:33am Dec 11, 2008 7:33am
And with those numbers, I am going to bed.

Night.

I will catch up tomorrow on your hedging strategy, maybe there is a forum that explains it in detail?
  • #49,517
  • Dec 11, 2008 7:35am Dec 11, 2008 7:35am
wow... I got stopped at break even in the morning... and then decided to be out until US... I would like to see 1.3320 to short for a retracement...
  • #49,518
  • Dec 11, 2008 7:40am Dec 11, 2008 7:40am
Quoting TradeWell
There was a guest on Bloomberg TV just now (Boris Schlossberg) he thinks the Euro move is a fake-out
tell boris it's working... stopped out of my yoorow short last night... after nailing a long, i got nailed.. oh well.

i willl console myself with the 200 pips on my GY short.

who dosed that yoorow anyways?? bouncing off some long term trendline I don't even remember what it is...

back in an hour or so...

ADD: found the TL... it's from like august 07 weekly low or something. i'll look into it in a little bit.. it's a biggie...
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FUBAR...
  • #49,519
  • Dec 11, 2008 7:42am Dec 11, 2008 7:42am
Quoting TradeWell
There was a guest on Bloomberg TV just now (Boris Schlossberg) he thinks the Euro move is a fake-out and that it has only gone up because of yield and there is no other basis for its climb (same with EUR/GBP).
Boris Schlossberg...formerly a currency analyst with DailyFX. One of those sites i visit to get an opinion.
  • #49,520
  • Dec 11, 2008 7:46am Dec 11, 2008 7:46am
fake...
could be... COT still reports more short positions... but of course that was last week. It will be interesting to see this week report.
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