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  • #49,401
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:16pm Dec 10, 2008 3:16pm
Quoting SpecialEd
So AK4X and Emda, do you not do anything at all with 0000gmt Open and 2359gmt Close?
in my case I don't use central pivot. only pivot point.
  • #49,402
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:18pm Dec 10, 2008 3:18pm
hope we get a little dollar strength tonight.. uy pair 11 trades since yesterday eve.. all possitive.. for 287 pips... eu 65 ...all gren.. auto trader lost 40 pips but they were micro chf/jpy..testing strategy... still got a few trades running currently in the red.. but all in all a good 24 hours... only lost 2 trades this week thus for. one auto trade and the other a over the weekend trade, both small trades.. i got big money on my yen trades and if it goes agaist me i already have enough pips to cover my sl. also i will add to my long if it nears any of todays lows..or pivots. i think this support is super strong for the near term futur..and will play ping-pong on it till proved wrong...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #49,403
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:21pm Dec 10, 2008 3:21pm
it would be a shame with all the effort to reach this level.. not to push it a little more to stop all those who have stops at 1.3100 ... then we could resume the downtrend...
  • #49,404
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:25pm Dec 10, 2008 3:25pm
Quoting egkid
Looks like same as 25 November, I use blue shadow on that date and today.
Is it double top?
its tripple top if you also count november 5th although price didnt quite close at this level it was very damn close and actualy went higher during that day.
  • #49,405
  • Edited 4:00pm Dec 10, 2008 3:26pm | Edited 4:00pm
Quoting SpecialEd
Add: That said, am I wrong in assuming that not many fibs have been respected over the past few days?.. Am I wasting my time with these or is do you think this time period is just an anomaly?
If something doesn't work, i always look for the thing that is. This whole market is very fluid right now and nimbleness is rewarded more often than not... i'm constantly tweaking certain things to reflect those changes while holding to the core principles that have proved successful, and keeping it simple is the only way my pea brain can manage all that.

I mostly look at either a 1 or 2 hour swing fib myself and then a daily swing as well that doesn't change all that often. Some traders I really respect use a new daily fib every day that anchors the previous hi/lo. i usually do that but rarely keep it on my charts.

I lean more towards something I'll call "completed price cycles". those would be the same or very similar to the typical swing cycle. In other words I look for the previous high and low before the current one for that TF that have not been violated more than once since they were made.

Then I look at the extensions for that fib both positive and negative, whichever apply. The current eu 1hr is a good example of this. I always fib the current hi/lo but i really like the swing concept for now. It tends to filter out very recent spikes that may not hold water. If price proves the move will hold, then I simply move to the next swing point.

ScottyB has done some great work on this concept and I've probably butchered the explanation(sorry scotty) but for me it's simpler and less frantic than trying to keep too many fibs on the table at once. That said, I'll fib anything in sight to see if something jumps out at me, but they usually don't last long.

ONE NOTE: I'll fib a ranging session on the 20m chart sometimes for reference, but in those cases I'm usually using my bollinger bands for the bounces. the fib extensions can come in handy in those cases where there's a spike outside the band. if it respects the fib extensions, no worries... if not, i reevaluate.
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FUBAR...
  • #49,406
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:30pm Dec 10, 2008 3:30pm
i am inclined to believe this puppy has run out of steam. the whole run up did not feel like strong bullish movement either...instead it felt more of a "push it up as high as we can so we can load massive shorts said one market maker to another". I will be even so bold as to say..we will see a new low below 1.2300 by the end of next week, probably on the same day Feds cut rates to .50 (ironic right?)

speculation aside...the uptrend spotted a few days ago has held up incredibly strong. the upper wall has been tapped several times now and for it to be tapped again it would mean not going much higher then the current high. the ultimate question now is what happens when the middle wall gets reached again as has happened after every tap of the upper wall. And further...can we even break 23.6% retracement from this low to high uptrend? If we can break that...there is room for further retracement up to the lower wall (50% fibs). We break that lower wall as well..my above statement will not be so speculative anymore. Interesting days are ahead and I am clearly biased short while treating that middle wall as a sharp edge of a sword until it is broken. Good pippin all

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #49,407
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:37pm Dec 10, 2008 3:37pm
Quoting SpecialEd
So AK4X and Emda, do you not do anything at all with 0000gmt Open and 2359gmt Close?
nothing at all.

don't even know that it happened except ibfx opens a new daily candle, which i also ignore.
FUBAR...
  • #49,408
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:40pm Dec 10, 2008 3:40pm
Quoting ak4x
If something doesn't work, i always look for the thing that is. This whole market is very fluid right now and nimbleness is rewarded more often than not... i'm constantly tweaking certain things to reflect those changes while holding to the core principles that have proved successful, and keeping it simple is the only way my pea brain can manage all that.
As always my man, this was an excellent, informative post. I'm breaking for dinner, but will get back to fully absorb it in an hour or so.

Thanks to you and Emda for a refresher on the basics.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #49,409
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:41pm Dec 10, 2008 3:41pm
Quoting psiholog
i am inclined to believe this puppy has run out of steam. the whole run up did not feel like strong bullish movement either...instead it felt more of a "push it up as high as we can so we can load massive shorts said one market maker to another". I will be even so bold as to say..we will see a new low below 1.2300 by the end of next week, probably on the same day Feds cut rates to .50 (ironic right?)

speculation aside...the uptrend spotted a few days ago has held up incredibly strong. the upper wall has been tapped several times now and for...
you could be right...
but when price went up like crazy... it went down like crazy soon too... but sometimes... I consider that a spike or stop hunting. When a trend keeps going and going... eating pips slowly... it can be more powerful than a spike. I've been there many times... seeing that price is oversold or overbought.... just to see that then at the end, it explodes in the same direction instead of retracing.
  • #49,410
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:41pm Dec 10, 2008 3:41pm
Quoting emda
in my case I don't use central pivot. only pivot point.
most folks don't. i learned it from the dove alliance as a yen trading tool. it's somewhat less useful on the yoorow imo, but the principle still applies often enough that i find it useful.

i include it on the pivot posts out of habit now as some folks who don't get a 5pm daily candle used to pm me for it. i guess they never realized you just take your 5pm hourly open instead...
FUBAR...
  • #49,411
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:54pm Dec 10, 2008 3:54pm
Quoting psiholog
instead it felt more of a "push it up as high as we can so we can load massive shorts
Well feelings aside, the question is where is "as high as we can?" and my charts are showing some upside yet. The 31.xx level is as high as I can see w/o getting a crik in my neck atm...

It's far enough away from the 3000 level that everyone will be onboard by that time.

Right now just barely over the 30.xx threshold, OF COURSE it has to retrace to go higher.... right. I'd go long before I'd go short, or I'd stay out. Currently still long from the low 90's.

On the other hand. it's no big deal to clean out all the stops just below 30.xx before blasting off again. Crap. I've talked myself out of everything.
FUBAR...
  • #49,412
  • Dec 10, 2008 4:00pm Dec 10, 2008 4:00pm
Quoting ak4x
nothing at all.

don't even know that it happened except ibfx opens a new daily candle, which i also ignore.

ak, i'm on the west coast too, & curious as to whether you have regular hours that you trade. do you just do the asian & european sessions, or do you just trade "when the spirit moves you"?
  • #49,413
  • Dec 10, 2008 4:05pm Dec 10, 2008 4:05pm
Quoting ak4x
Well feelings aside, the question is where is "as high as we can?" and my charts are showing some upside yet. The 31.xx level is as high as I can see w/o getting a crik in my neck atm...
That question is beyond me to be honest. We can slowly ride this uptrend all the way to 1.3300..maybe. Nothing is for certain now and will treat each tap of the upper wall as a selling opportunity. As things stand each time the middle wall is tapped it should be viewed as a buying opportunity but I wont do that..the way i see it...it has to break eventually and when it does...id rather be flat or in another trade selling from the upper wall. Today did make a double top though on the daily charts (november 25) which is why i consider the possibility this thing could break down during london session or ny session
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #49,414
  • Dec 10, 2008 4:08pm Dec 10, 2008 4:08pm
In response to a PM about finding the right places to fib from, scottyb had a great suggestion once to try using the Bill Williams Fractal tool under the Insert>Indicators tab on the MT4 Toolbar until you get the feel for your fib anchors.

Suntrader had something to say once concerning fib points that i thought was very good as well and was almost similar to how I do it, but I forgot to bookmark the post. ((I think it was fibs, it may have been TD trendlines))
FUBAR...
  • #49,415
  • Dec 10, 2008 4:15pm Dec 10, 2008 4:15pm
Quoting shotshell
ak, i'm on the west coast too, & curious as to whether you have regular hours that you trade. do you just do the asian & european sessions, or do you just trade "when the spirit moves you"?
lately, it's been whenever I think i know what's going on, and that hasn't been very often.

I'm getting alot more normal TF sleep these days and spending more time with my honey. honestly, I'll be probably pulling the plug soon for the season.

i used to be hardcore late asia, frankenstein and london open, then done till early asia setting up charts and all. lately i'm just tired. that's my sign. also dinner bell is ringin..
FUBAR...
  • #49,416
  • Dec 10, 2008 5:51pm Dec 10, 2008 5:51pm
Quoting ak4x
Suntrader had something to say once concerning fib points that i thought was very good as well and was almost similar to how I do it, but I forgot to bookmark the post. ((I think it was fibs, it may have been TD trendlines))
Everything I know (probably not much) I give credit to Tom DeMark's three excellent trading books. Who'd thunk it, books, you mean people actually read nowadays.

Anyway TD says at a low (point#1) to look for upside resistance draw fibs by looking for the last time price traded lower (point#3) and then find the highest high in between (point#2). Then draw up from point#1 to point#2. Vice versa for downside support.

Here is something TD also talks about, a double retracement. On Monday (bar with asterisk) it blew through actually 3 levels -38.%/50%/61.8%. At the very minimum a consolidation and/or pullback or even a exhaustion reversal might happen.

It happens, naturally, more often moving through 2 levels in a day than 3 but even then it is not common for a double retracement so when it does it is a good short term predictor of next day's price movement. 23.6% level is not really used for this indicator.
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  • #49,417
  • Dec 10, 2008 5:52pm Dec 10, 2008 5:52pm
Ok, so is this a stop run ?
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #49,418
  • Dec 10, 2008 5:55pm Dec 10, 2008 5:55pm
I was also going to draw on the above chart additional fib retraces from further back but the chop will have been in (which I think is an EW Wave#4) really doesn't add anything to the analysis.
  • #49,419
  • Dec 10, 2008 5:59pm Dec 10, 2008 5:59pm
Quoting SunTrader
Maybe a head and shoulder - not shoulder(s)

Unless you want to post a chart showing a complete H&S pattern?
I see a head, a shoulder and a waving lifted arm to the sky?
  • #49,420
  • Dec 10, 2008 6:05pm Dec 10, 2008 6:05pm
Quoting SunTrader
Everything I know (probably not much) I give credit to Tom DeMark's three excellent trading books. Who'd thunk it, books, you mean people actually read nowadays.
There is a new book out on the subject of DeMark indicators. Strangely it is called "DeMark Indicators". The author is Jason Perl. It is a bit easier to understand than DeMark's books, especially if you are new to his way of thinking.
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