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Spud's Predictive MTF Stochastics

  • #1,281
  • Dec 10, 2008 10:07am Dec 10, 2008 10:07am
Just to keep you all updated,

I haven't been posting because I have been working on a trend buster/identifier that should be of great help. It is at least looking very promising but I do have some work with regards to writing it up and making chart pics....which as you probably know is very time consuming. Oh...and it is pretty simple to use.

So, I'm still here working away.
  • #1,282
  • Dec 10, 2008 10:13am Dec 10, 2008 10:13am
thank you spud
waiting for the new updates
  • #1,283
  • Edited 11:30am Dec 10, 2008 10:59am | Edited 11:30am
Hey Spud just interested to know if you personally take much fundermental information into account when you're trading
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,284
  • Dec 10, 2008 11:50am Dec 10, 2008 11:50am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Hey Spud just interested to know if you personally take much fundermental information into account when you're trading
I'm always listening, if I use it then it is subconciously for trading. I find it can influence me in a most negative way. Stoch's line up for the fundamentals, it is probably telling us the true market intention and that is why it is more reliable...in my humble opinion.

I'm more likely to exit or avoid an entry if things are contradictory but I'm usually in an out, so to say I trade them or let them influence me would be a no....I prefer to trade where the money is rather than where people say they will put their money.
  • #1,285
  • Dec 10, 2008 11:56am Dec 10, 2008 11:56am
Quoting Spudfyre
I prefer to trade where the money is rather than where people say they will put their money.
Good words of wisdom to trade by....
  • #1,286
  • Dec 11, 2008 1:51am Dec 11, 2008 1:51am
just a thought
all what i want from the forex market is a daily 10 pips 99% safe
thats all i want thats enough for me
i dont dream about chasing a trend or a 100 dailly pips
but still the stop positions eats my profitable trades
  • #1,287
  • Dec 11, 2008 4:37am Dec 11, 2008 4:37am
Quoting Spudfyre
I'm always listening, if I use it then it is subconciously for trading. I find it can influence me in a most negative way. Stoch's line up for the fundamentals, it is probably telling us the true market intention and that is why it is more reliable...in my humble opinion.

I'm more likely to exit or avoid an entry if things are contradictory but I'm usually in an out, so to say I trade them or let them influence me would be a no....I prefer to trade where the money is rather than where people say they will put their money.
Ah Ok Thanks Spud -
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,288
  • Dec 11, 2008 4:53am Dec 11, 2008 4:53am
Quoting sarah2002
just a thought
all what i want from the forex market is a daily 10 pips 99% safe
thats all i want thats enough for me ...

hi sarah2002, it's ok to have high dreams and wishes as all of us. BUT ...


99% safe trades ( one Entry a day 10 pip TP - assuming 250 trading days a year)


* In 2 years you would have had: 500 Trades

- 495 Trades Winner each 10 PIPS: 495 * 10 PIPs = 4950 PIPs

- 5 Trades Looser (setting StopLoss 990 PIPs away): 5 * 990 PIPs = 4950 PIPs

So the real Question is: Can you do that:

500 Trades TakeProfit 10 PIPs, StopLoss 990 Pips: do you have just 5 looser? Maybe but ?

Some other thoughts: even if you have in the end just 5 looser !! you MUST enter a new trade each day -- Do you have enough Margin to do that and make a meaningful Profit by 10 PIPs TakeProfit setting?


No offence sarah2002 - I think 99% safe trades (one each day) is not realistic - except you don't trade at all. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

But we all try to get closer to that.

wish all of us good trading.

MJ



Even if we could achieve this success rate there are at least 2 major problem I see:
- NOT enough margin (for meaningful Profit) in a time where a couple of trades turn against us (by 990 PIPs StopLoss setting) to enter each day a new trade.

- What about if we have the five first trade the StopLoss of 990 Pips hit ?

- this leaves us only with setting the Stop Losss much closer - and than it is even harder to achieve such success rate 99 % safe trade.




There are still some other thoughts: if in case we make sometimes more then 10 PIPs profit ? would be a very positive influence. etc.......

What is the optimal StopLoss setting to win???
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,289
  • Dec 11, 2008 7:24am Dec 11, 2008 7:24am
Well I did manually on my live account.

I did not have the guts to stay in for an escalator or so - closed manually on the first negative sign.

Still a nice profit in %.

MJ
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__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,290
  • Dec 11, 2008 7:38am Dec 11, 2008 7:38am
Glad I took the Profit and ran!


properly exactly what Spud means: predict the short retracement

- or was it luckhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Happy Trading
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__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,291
  • Edited 11:01am Dec 11, 2008 8:29am | Edited 11:01am
Hi All

Just thought I'd share with you something I've been playing around with the last few days while trying to get some more consistant entries with this combination technique

Below is an example of using divergence as another signal to confirm trades - Just something you could play around with as with everything its not 100% perfect and I posted a perfect day for doing it this way.

The chart below is Tuesday there were trades gallore - There were easily 300+ pips AVAILABLE in these examples alone but of course we cant always buy at the bottom and close at the top for maximum pips

If you don't know much about divergence is there is a good explanation of it here:
http://www.babypips.com/school/divergence_trading.html

The 3rd example (red lines) the PL wasn't actually in the right position to trade the combination but for examples purposes I put it in there

I guess in the end it's waiting for a sort of double top or bottom to form instead of jumping straight in on the first signal and then of course confirming it with the divergence. I hope it can help some of you. As Spud said you need to know which signal is the RIGHT signal - this could possibly give a better clue

Just an idea

Anyway keep eye out for it and post some example in here too if you see anything worth noting

Cheers
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Time hides Nothing
  • #1,292
  • Edited 11:02am Dec 11, 2008 8:56am | Edited 11:02am
Heres a couple more examples of the divergence in action but also shows another filter I've been using whereby instead of entering right on the close of the signal candle, waiting until the low is broken... This filters out a few bad trades too.

Particularly those annoying ones that reverse right on entry and never even bring you into profit like the first one.

We had the signal and normal procedure would be to enter straight away but waiting to make sure the low gets broken would of kept us out of this bad trade.

You might also notice the hidden divergence straight after this bad entry where by the price makes a slightly Higher low but the %K makes a much much lower low - this is a bullish signal.
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Time hides Nothing
  • #1,293
  • Edited 11:02am Dec 11, 2008 9:02am | Edited 11:02am
These are just some Ideas I wanted to share guys maybe you could test some of this out yourself - or maybe it will trigger some ideas of your own

Cheers
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,294
  • Dec 11, 2008 9:07am Dec 11, 2008 9:07am
Quoting CindyXXXX
These are just some Ideas I wanted to share guys maybe you could test some of this out yourself - or maybe it will trigger some ideas of your own

Cheers
Have the filters been working pretty good for you?
  • #1,295
  • Edited 9:10am Dec 11, 2008 9:09am | Edited 9:10am
Cindy I think those are good ideas. I'm wondering if the "waiting for the low to be broken" in your trade is the equivalent of the M1 being under 23.6???

In divergence when the price diverges from the indicator, in this case stochs, is it the stochs that trump the price or vice versa. From your examples looks like price won.

FW
Isolate yourself from the herd
  • #1,296
  • Edited 9:25am Dec 11, 2008 9:10am | Edited 9:25am
Quoting jdcompute
Have the filters been working pretty good for you?
Yes actually waiting for the divergence has kept me out of a lot of bad entries but there have still been some bad ones - can't win them all!

and waiting for the low or high to be broken is just and extra security measure that also filters out a few - you only miss a couple of pips from where you would normally get in
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,297
  • Dec 11, 2008 9:13am Dec 11, 2008 9:13am
Quoting forexweasel
Cindy I think those are good ideas. I'm wondering if the "waiting for the low to be broken" in your trade is the equivalent of the M1 being under 23.6???

In divergence when the price diverges from the indicator, in this case stochs, is it the stochs that trump the price or vice versa. From your examples looks like price won.

FW
No its not the same because often ive entered with the combination rules and M1 has to be under 23.6 ATTHE TIME OF ENTRY for a short and still the low hasn't been broken of the trigger candle - instead M1 and price just bounced up right on entry...

As for the divergence question I don't really understand what you're asking I'm no expert on divergence but have lately grown a liking to it. In the link I posted above theres a really good explanation of the 2 different types of divergence.

the examples I showed above were all the same type where for example price makes a higher high (swing high) but the stoch makes a lower high - this is bearish Divergence

Or where price makes alower low but the stock makes a higher low - Bullish divergence

Then thers Hidden divergence but I wont go into that you can read about it if you want to at the link I posted above
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,298
  • Edited 9:41am Dec 11, 2008 9:22am | Edited 9:41am
Quoting CindyXXXX
No its not the same because often ive entered with the combination rules and M1 has to be under 23.6 ATTHE TIME OF ENTRY for a short and still the low hasn't been broken of the trigger candle - instead M1 and price just bounced up right on entry...
the examples I showed above were all...the examples I showed above were all the same type where for example price makes a higher high (swing high) but the stoch makes a lower high - this is bearish Divergence
thanks for both answers which make sense. I think this could be useful. Especially if it worked for you during these trendy days.

re: the M1 bounce, I think waiting for that low/high of the trigger to be broken helps confirm the direction of the trade. Thanks for investigating this.

FW
Isolate yourself from the herd
  • #1,299
  • Edited 10:57am Dec 11, 2008 9:40am | Edited 10:57am
Quoting forexweasel
thanks for both answers which make sense. I think this could be useful. Especially if it worked for you during these trendy days.

FW
Well it worked in a sense that it wasnt there so stopped me looking for trades - When it did exist there was usually a small but profitable bounce until it hit the top and had the big bounce....

on the other hand there was also lots of hidden divergence that played well with elasticity trades going WITH the trend - this is where for example for a bullish hidden divergence the price makes a HIGHER LOW butt he stoch make a much LOWER LOW (chart below)

its slightly confusing at first but very easy to getthe hang of theres only 4 divergence signals

1- Price HH - Stoch LH - Bearish (normal divergence)
2- Price LL - Stoch HL - Bullish (normal divergence)
3-Price HL - Stoch LL - Bullish (Hidden divergence)
4 -Price LH - Stoch HH - Bearish (Hidden Divergence)

It wasnt my intension to turn this thread into a divergence lesson sorry Spud just wanted to throw some ideas out there but maybe we can build something around this im not sure
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Time hides Nothing
  • #1,300
  • Dec 11, 2008 11:14am Dec 11, 2008 11:14am
Quoting sarah2002
just a thought
all what i want from the forex market is a daily 10 pips 99% safe
thats all i want thats enough for me
i dont dream about chasing a trend or a 100 dailly pips
but still the stop positions eats my profitable trades
I think what Sarah means is, she wants to know that she can walk away today with 10 pips.

We'll never have 99% trade accuracy..the markets will never allow us. It is the same reason there will never be a perfect EA...the markets work on a zero sum bases losers=winners...so the market will always change to keep this ratio.

However, it doesn't mean we can't walk away with 10 pips everyday..even with a bad win ratio..it's just a whole lot easier if we won all the time.
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