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Spud's Predictive MTF Stochastics

  • #1,221
  • Dec 7, 2008 8:29am Dec 7, 2008 8:29am
Quoting sarah2002
i beleive that the word thank you isnt enough to express myself
spud you are making an amazing work really a wonderfull thread
also i want to tell you that i am totally convinced with the idea of huntting for 10 pips even 5 as long as i feel safe and away of blood presure trades i ll keep doing it and practice it to perfecting no matter how much time it ll take me
thanks you
thank you
thank you
Hello, I have not previosusly posted to thread, but I want to second all what sarah2002 says above. I really appreciate your amazing work spud. Thank you very much.
  • #1,222
  • Edited 9:18am Dec 7, 2008 8:34am | Edited 9:18am
Quoting Spudfyre
As a visual tool , yes I would agree the rope is the best tool to use and learn. It is also the hardest to learn. All I did since The Rope V2 (Sonic Indicator) was break it down and add a few nechanicals to perhaps show what we are doing. The common thread (sorry for the pun) is still the same.
thanks Spud.

I have a big question now: I think in my programming I'm past the simple mechanical approach.

as I implemented the basic mechanical approach last week (not well tested yet) I check again your threads.

And for me the time has come to move on a bit further. I want the 'whole meat' http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif Not just a few selected bites.


Of course I must use defined rules -- but more advanced. - so I basically implemented a new bot. added the whole Rope into it. (not all the different pictures but some.


NOW: if you would choose without simplified for a mechanical system:



How would you describe the best SHORT ENTRY.

I came up with such:

* ESSENTIALS
M5: PriceLine_M5, OrigLine_M5 Stoch_M5 (14,1,1), Rope_M5 (18 Stoch)
M15: OriginLine_M15

* PEAKED all together above PeakLevel same time (PossibleTrade Initial Trigger) e.g 90%
PriceLine_M5, OrigLine_M5, Stoch_M5 (14,1,1), Rope_M5

* PriceLine_M5 stayed above: its Defined Level e.g 80%
* OriginLine_M5 crossed below and stayed below: its Defined LevelLevel e.g: 76.4%

* Stoch_M5 (14,1,1) below OriginLine_15

* Stoch_M5 (14,1,1) below defined distant to OriginLine_M5 -- measures also a bit the strength of the expected movement

* Rope_M5 Order_Low_to_High: meaning close together or orderly spread: no net

Trade will only be executed if all Essentials are met

* Confirmation_RISK= 11
M15: PriceLine_M15, OriginLine_M15 (each counting 3 more important)
M30: PriceLine_M30, OriginLine_M30 (each counting 2 less important)
M1: Filter_M1 (counting 1 least important)

* PriceLine_M15 above defined Level. e.g 76.4%

* OriginLine_M15 above defined Level. e.g 76.4%

* PriceLine_M30 above defined Level. e.g 76.4%

* OriginLine_M30 above defined Level. e.g 76.4%

* Filter_M1 below below defined Level. e.g 23.6% (does the filter still make sense with the Rope ? )


Trades will be executed only when ESSENTIALS are met -

UnitSize will be reduced base on Confirmation_RISK


* e.g Confirmation_RISK 11 - will be using just 5% of the normal Unitsize



Do you have any comments, improvement ideas - did I cover most of the MTF Stochastic ?

waiting patently for your comments

MJ

PS: that what I describer above I have basically already programmed (it's faster now as I have a base to build on)
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,223
  • Dec 7, 2008 10:49am Dec 7, 2008 10:49am
This is how I would define a short entry.

The essential checklist for a safe short entry:

Check 1 (M5 Chart – Pending Trade Warning):
Price Line (100,3,3) must have peaked above 76.4
“Peaked” means we do not have a higher PL stochastic level previous to our current PL stochastic level since the PL crossed 76.4 (up)
Origin Line (14,3,3) crosses 76.4 (down)
The OL must cross down from above 76.4 after our Peak


Check 2 (M5/M15 Stochastic Crossover):
M5 stochastic (14,1,1) must cross (down) below the M15 stochastic either before or at point of entry and stay below the M15 at point of entry.

Check 3 (M5 below 80):
M5 (14,1,1) must be below 80 at point of entry
This is not the same as the Origin Line (14,3,3) below 76.4 as this is the (14,1,1) stochastic below 80.

Check 4 (M1 Filter – Point of Entry):
M1 (14,3,3) must be below 23.6. When Checks 1-3 are true, enter at first close of M1 where the M1 filter is true.

Trading:
Progress through the time frames looking for the same checklist completion or that the longer time frames are moving in a way that the checklist can be completed. Use a large hard stop and peak plus 10 mental stop. Target for set pips or exit when the checklist will not be fulfilled in a larger time frame….or cannot be supported in a lesser time frame. Trade the time frame that supports the checklist.

Mechanical Trading:
Check 1 is the main entry point (use 83.6, 80 or 76.4) of OL cross for entry. The peak, OL and PL must be above 83.6. Look to M1 Filter (Check 4) to focus entry point. Use Check 2 and 3 to confirm entry for a more conservative approach.
Set a grid at even 10’s, 20’s or 25’s of price chart, exit/or stop on second grid line reached from point of entry. Exception is starting on the grid, then exit/stop on next grid line.
Only enter 1 trade where PL is above 83.6. Cannot enter a new trade until PL falls below 76.4 and rises above 83.6 (this protects against trends in an over market condition).

Safety Belt:
To ensure you are trading off the peak, you can wait for the Price Line to dip close to the 83.6 line so long as there is a higher price line point prior to this. You will need the Origin Line to be separated from the Price Line to some degree, or appear they are separating at point of entry. Use M1 Filter and remainder of checklist to support an entry this way. This is a late entry and as such you should tighten your target profit or be alert to what other time frames are doing. And follow the other time frame checklists from here on. This works better entering on M15 rather than M5 as it will give you more possible opportunity for pips that exist in a wider ranged price market. If you are fluent in using the multiple time frames, this is a very safe method for entry on M5 as log as you are targeting an escalator or sniping pips.
  • #1,224
  • Dec 7, 2008 11:22am Dec 7, 2008 11:22am
Very nicely put together Spud. Thanks.

Do you think in such an setup as your defined Short Entry - the Rope would make any improvement and in which way ?
Personally do you still use the Rope or Sonic indicator or did you get rid of it in the mean time?
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,225
  • Dec 7, 2008 11:58am Dec 7, 2008 11:58am
Quoting M_j
Very nicely put together Spud. Thanks.

Do you think in such an setup as your defined Short Entry - the Rope would make any improvement and in which way ?
Personally do you still use the Rope or Sonic indicator or did you get rid of it in the mean time?
Personally, I use the rope all the time on my charts. It's very easy for me to visualize what is happening with it. It's a lot harder to teach the rope than use it.
  • #1,226
  • Dec 7, 2008 12:15pm Dec 7, 2008 12:15pm
Quoting Spudfyre
Personally, I use the rope all the time on my charts. It's very easy for me to visualize what is happening with it. It's a lot harder to teach the rope than use it.
you are doing a good job - just the student is slow ;-)

anyway with using the rope - do you still thing the M1 Filter improves the Entry or would you say it is obsolescent when using the Rope yourself.
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,227
  • Dec 7, 2008 12:33pm Dec 7, 2008 12:33pm
Quoting M_j
you are doing a good job - just the student is slow ;-)

anyway with using the rope - do you still thing the M1 Filter improves the Entry or would you say it is obsolescent when using the Rope yourself.
Do you need M1....no. I use M1 much more like the tick....for example, I wouldn't exit a long with M1 in the oversold, that would likely be the worst exit...vs waiting until it climbed up and exiting in the over bought. Of course, it depends on what everything else is doing...but on a general basis.
  • #1,228
  • Dec 7, 2008 12:44pm Dec 7, 2008 12:44pm
Quoting Spudfyre
Do you need M1....no. I use M1 much more like the tick....for example, I wouldn't exit a long with M1 in the oversold, that would likely be the worst exit...vs waiting until it climbed up and exiting in the over bought. Of course, it depends on what everything else is doing...but on a general basis.
Thanks - one thing more to the rope:

When you live trade do you use also just closed Candles (also for the discernment of the Rope) or do you use the Rope 'kind an the current live Candle ?
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,229
  • Dec 7, 2008 12:57pm Dec 7, 2008 12:57pm
Quoting M_j
Thanks - one thing more to the rope:

When you live trade do you use also just closed Candles (also for the discernment of the Rope) or do you use the Rope 'kind an the current live Candle ?
It depends what the rope is doing...I try to stay on closed candles as I find playing live candles tends to bite you more.
  • #1,230
  • Dec 7, 2008 1:47pm Dec 7, 2008 1:47pm
Quoting sarah2002
i feel confused about the new information here
are the filter and the crosses delaying the entry or confirming it?
i hope we can ve a final system to stick with and practice because every time i manage to understand the new changings we swich to a new one
thanks
hi Spud,

After all what is said so far - and in the light of the quote above:

I would find it most useful: when you just would take key screen shots of your trades (not all rules we made up to simplify it but your real trades and trade setup) maybe with some explanation why and at what you look.

basically a window into your current trading. (not any simplified rules - but following the Masters example)

hope you get what I try to say

thanks MJ
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,231
  • Dec 7, 2008 2:00pm Dec 7, 2008 2:00pm
Quoting chehab
Hi Lulalabo
Thank u for for the nice job u added to this startegy
It could be thru your indicators, modifications or logical interpretation.
------------------------------
My question is about using crossover on your " Stoch Visual...
Hi chehab,

Each column represents the combination as according to the Spud rules, ie for example:
M5 column:
Price set to TF 5
Origin set to TF 5
cross1 set to TF 5
cross2 set to TFf 15
filter set to TF 1
M15 column:
Price set to TF 15
Origin set to TF 15
cross1 set to TF 15
cross2 set to TFf 30
filter set to TF 5

an so on fo the other column.

These are the combinations that had already described in a previous post:

Price:
- price above 76.4 & price < price prev : color red
- price below 23.6 & price < price prev : color green
Origin:
- origin below 76.4 & < origin prev : color red
- origin above 23.6 & > origin prev : color green
Stoch Cross:
- stoch cross1 < 20 & stoch cross1 < stoch cross2 & stoch cross1 < stoch cross1 prev : color red
- stoch cross1 > 20 & stoch cross1 > stoch cross2 & stoch cross1 > stoch cross1 prev : color green
Filter
filter < 23.6 : color red
filter > 76.4 : color green

When this combinations aren't meet : color neutral.

Now I am working to make the indicator more closed to spud rules and easier to reading.
I will post it once completed, is not an easy job.

Meanwhile later I attach another indicator that shows the all stochastic lines for combinations of chart TF in a single window, and when you change TF automatically changes the settings of stochastic.

I just have to finish some details.
The following is an anticipation picture.



Cheers.

Lubo
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: stochcomblimit.gif Size: 18 KB
If I know how, I tell You!! Few but Good!!
  • #1,232
  • Dec 7, 2008 2:38pm Dec 7, 2008 2:38pm
Quoting LuboLabo

Meanwhile later I attach another indicator that shows the all stochastic lines for combinations of chart TF in a single window, and when you change TF automatically changes the settings of stochastic.

I just have to finish some details.
The following is an anticipation picture.




Cheers.

Lubo
Your doing some great work!
  • #1,233
  • Edited 7:42pm Dec 7, 2008 5:07pm | Edited 7:42pm
Quoting Spudfyre
Your doing some great work!

Hi spud,

many thanks for your feedback.

It's time to attach my indicator, it seems ready, indeed, maybe I add too many future.

In this indi there are all 5 stocahstic line for the combination in the same window.

It is initially set:
- to show 3 sepate quadrants,
Three_Quadrants_Mode = true
Two_Quadrant_Mode = false
first: origin line & price line
second: stoch cross
third: filter

- to show last bar
Last_Bar = true

- to show 35 bars line.
Max_Bars = 35

You can choise if u want
to show 2 sepate quadrant
Three_Quadrants_Mode = false
Two_Quadrant_Mode = true
to show all line in the same quadrant
Three_Quadrants_Mode = false
Two_Quadrant_Mode = false
to not show last bar
Last_Bar =false
increase or decrase number of bars to calculatas line
change Max_Bars value.

The other setting concerning the stochastic parameters and I think it is quite obvious.

Available for any clarification.

Cheers

Lubo.

P.s. I hope you enjoy.

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3quandrants.gif Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2quandrants.gif Size: 13 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1quandrants.gif Size: 15 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 #Stoch Comb Limit Bars.ex4   24 KB | 683 downloads
If I know how, I tell You!! Few but Good!!
  • #1,234
  • Dec 7, 2008 6:44pm Dec 7, 2008 6:44pm
Bug fixed.

I have re-attached indicator to previous post.

Lubo
If I know how, I tell You!! Few but Good!!
  • #1,235
  • Dec 8, 2008 6:11am Dec 8, 2008 6:11am
hi lubolabo

awsome work thanks

regards lodol
  • #1,236
  • Dec 8, 2008 8:46am Dec 8, 2008 8:46am
just got stopped out on this trade. the orange stoch is m5 14,3,3 the green 14,1,1 the purple 100,3,3 and the red is the M15 14,3,3. It turned around quickly and bit me for 25 pips taking out the stop loss at the peak. Did ok on the first tradewhich was a long, but lost it back plus more on the second trade.

whoops, picture to follow
Isolate yourself from the herd
  • #1,237
  • Dec 8, 2008 8:47am Dec 8, 2008 8:47am
chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: stopped.gif Size: 23 KB
Isolate yourself from the herd
  • #1,238
  • Dec 8, 2008 9:19am Dec 8, 2008 9:19am
Quoting forexweasel
chart
Yes its days like these we get burnt by the trend - I'm still looking for a filter for this - all I got so far is trend lines

Butthere was news at the time: ECB President Trichet Speaks... And looks like we just got another short entry that isn't looking so hot either. I'm still behind that TL so haven't taken either of these 2 trades
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,239
  • Dec 8, 2008 9:29am Dec 8, 2008 9:29am
Cindy, I did it again!

seriously, I think I'm going to stick to waiting until the M15 closes under 80 in my direction next time!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: stopped2.gif Size: 23 KB
Isolate yourself from the herd
  • #1,240
  • Dec 8, 2008 9:30am Dec 8, 2008 9:30am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Yes its days like these we get burnt by the trend - I'm still looking for a filter for this - all I got so far is trend lines

Butthere was news at the time: ECB President Trichet Speaks... And looks like we just got another short entry that isn't looking so hot either. I'm still behind that TL so haven't taken either of these 2 trades

Hey, show us your trend line!
Isolate yourself from the herd
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