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Trend statistics

  • #1
  • First Post: Dec 5, 2008 3:42pm Dec 5, 2008 3:42pm
Does anyone know where I can find some statistics about trends? I had an article some years ago but I've lost it.. I need data like: if the price moved 100 pips up the chances that it will go another 30 pips are 85%.
  • #2
  • Dec 5, 2008 10:16pm Dec 5, 2008 10:16pm
interesting, but the current market conditions kinda wreaks havoc on that historical data. volatility as determined by daily range is up an insane percentage from just last year.
  • #3
  • Dec 5, 2008 10:29pm Dec 5, 2008 10:29pm
Nod. Might be best to phrase it in terms of ATR.

Have you ever considered doing the calculations yourself? It's not hard, and is a priceless skill to learn.
  • #4
  • Dec 6, 2008 3:01am Dec 6, 2008 3:01am
Thanks for replies. You are right; I should try figuring this out by myself. I guess I should start with Excel, historical data and adding the formulas... Anyway, I'll post what I find out here so someone can verify. Thanks again.
  • #5
  • Dec 6, 2008 3:48am Dec 6, 2008 3:48am
You might be interested in this post

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...6&postcount=20
  • #6
  • Dec 6, 2008 7:12am Dec 6, 2008 7:12am
If you search on GoodThings profile you'll find lots of stuff on stats for each pair.

Here's a start

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ght=goodthings
  • #7
  • Dec 6, 2008 10:43am Dec 6, 2008 10:43am
Thank for the links, both were very helpful. I've spent some time on my one as well, and here's what I've got:
I chose gpb/jpy since it's one of the most volatile currency pairs. If the rate moves 150 pips (doesn’t matter up or down) during the day (open price +150/-150 pips) the chances that it will continue for example another 30 pips in the same direction by the end of the day are 100%. But I think some minor adjustments are to be maid to provide accurate data. This’d been calculated based on one month data. I know, not the most relevant sample but it's a start, since I have the formulas and I should just get the historical data inserted.
  • #8
  • Dec 6, 2008 11:10am Dec 6, 2008 11:10am
Quoting fastbusiness
Thank for the links, both were very helpful. I've spent some time on my one as well, and here's what I've got:
[color=black]I chose gpb/jpy since it's one of the most volatile currency pairs. If the rate moves 150 pips (doesn’t matter up or down) during the day (open price +150/-150 pips) the chances that it will continue for example another 30 pips in the same direction by the end of the day are 100%. But I think some minor adjustments are to be maid to provide accurate data. This’d been calculated based on one month data....
cool. These days, GJ can yield 300-800 pips on an average, given the volatility.
  • #9
  • Last Post: Dec 6, 2008 11:33am Dec 6, 2008 11:33am
Quoting Rabid
Nod. Might be best to phrase it in terms of ATR.

Have you ever considered doing the calculations yourself? It's not hard, and is a priceless skill to learn.
Is ATR calculations a preferred method compared to ADR?
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