Disliked1.2714 is the daily pivot when you use 12PM EST as the start/stop time is what i am saying.
Your probably using 5PM EST or GMT+2 or possibly even GMT 0 since those two are at the same place. The asian one i agree its a weak pivot. I find the other 3 are are all valid.
GMT +2 is probably the strongest. I am guessing thats the one you use?Ignored
- #48,641
- Dec 5, 2008 2:42pm Dec 5, 2008 2:42pm
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Let the market come to you | 2,670 Posts
- #48,642
- Dec 5, 2008 2:48pm Dec 5, 2008 2:48pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #48,643
- Dec 5, 2008 2:54pm Dec 5, 2008 2:54pm
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Let the market come to you | 2,670 Posts
- #48,644
- Dec 5, 2008 3:00pm Dec 5, 2008 3:00pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #48,645
- Dec 5, 2008 3:04pm Dec 5, 2008 3:04pm
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Let the market come to you | 2,670 Posts
Have a great weekend! 
- #48,647
- Dec 5, 2008 7:39pm Dec 5, 2008 7:39pm
- Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Trade the reaction not the news! | 10,359 Posts
1.2714 is the daily pivot when you use 12PM EST as the start/stop time is what i am saying.
Your probably using 5PM EST or GMT+2 or possibly even GMT 0 since those two are at the same place. The asian one i agree its a weak pivot. I find the other 3 are are all valid.
GMT +2 is probably the strongest. I am guessing thats the one you use?
I don't know about you but when you consider pivots (daily/weekly/monthly), support and resistance and fib levels - that enough for my brain.
- #48,648
- Dec 5, 2008 10:08pm Dec 5, 2008 10:08pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: TARFU... | 7,015 Posts
Crikey!! Set my stops, took one last long look at the charts, left to go pick up my wife from work, came back and found my entire grand plan had gone south to Stopsville... 
Took another short look at everything and went to bed for a few hours after probably being up for too long. Crash investigation will probably find "operator error..."
Oh well, that's what stops are for i guess but it still bites. What in the blazes that runup was, and where it came from is what I'll be trying to sort out before Monday. I have no plans to trade the sunday open at this point but will certainly be watching it with a hairy eyeball...
Basically funded my losers this day with my winners from yesterday ((or something like that..)) so it came out something of a wash with a good bite to the downside when all said and done... Working really hard for free and a generous donation to boot...
At first blush, since I just woke up all groggy ((and out of sych)) I'm wondering what I missed, and/or if the plan was good but simply premature ((Simplest answer is it was a bad plan at any time...
))
I'm chatting with some guys ((all smarter than me)) who have some technical theories I'm not sure I fully understand so I'm sort of waiting to see what the squints say about the bigger picture they seem to be all excited about... Whatever. I just try to trade my charts.
I do feel we're at a "more critical than usual" juncture (every day seems to be one now) and the ice is getting extremely thin under us. The economics of the world are like it's blood, and that bloodflow has some issues getting worse that go beyond the reach of those who think they're in control of it all imo. "Deny all" is a serious flaw in the scheme of things.
I'd hope I find out my plan was sound but premature, as the opening sessions next week will decide and I'll be mostly sitting it out instead. Oh well. My favorite famous last words are "It seemed like a good idea at the time..." The truth is sometimes the plan just sucked.
I had a couple STELLAR days this week, took it light for a day as is my custom after a haul, traded thursday night and all thru NFP with GREAT results... then got killed crossing the road back to the house. What a bizness...
Said all this to say anybody here who EVER thinks they have it figured out is seriously deceived on multiple levels and a crash and burn is just a'rd the corner. Today was a good whack for me in several ways, but at least the burn days are all behind me and I can drive the thing home. Been there done that before.
See everybody sunday evening.
Took another short look at everything and went to bed for a few hours after probably being up for too long. Crash investigation will probably find "operator error..."
Oh well, that's what stops are for i guess but it still bites. What in the blazes that runup was, and where it came from is what I'll be trying to sort out before Monday. I have no plans to trade the sunday open at this point but will certainly be watching it with a hairy eyeball...
Basically funded my losers this day with my winners from yesterday ((or something like that..)) so it came out something of a wash with a good bite to the downside when all said and done... Working really hard for free and a generous donation to boot...
At first blush, since I just woke up all groggy ((and out of sych)) I'm wondering what I missed, and/or if the plan was good but simply premature ((Simplest answer is it was a bad plan at any time...
))I'm chatting with some guys ((all smarter than me)) who have some technical theories I'm not sure I fully understand so I'm sort of waiting to see what the squints say about the bigger picture they seem to be all excited about... Whatever. I just try to trade my charts.
I do feel we're at a "more critical than usual" juncture (every day seems to be one now) and the ice is getting extremely thin under us. The economics of the world are like it's blood, and that bloodflow has some issues getting worse that go beyond the reach of those who think they're in control of it all imo. "Deny all" is a serious flaw in the scheme of things.
I'd hope I find out my plan was sound but premature, as the opening sessions next week will decide and I'll be mostly sitting it out instead. Oh well. My favorite famous last words are "It seemed like a good idea at the time..." The truth is sometimes the plan just sucked.
I had a couple STELLAR days this week, took it light for a day as is my custom after a haul, traded thursday night and all thru NFP with GREAT results... then got killed crossing the road back to the house. What a bizness...
Said all this to say anybody here who EVER thinks they have it figured out is seriously deceived on multiple levels and a crash and burn is just a'rd the corner. Today was a good whack for me in several ways, but at least the burn days are all behind me and I can drive the thing home. Been there done that before.
See everybody sunday evening.
FUBAR...
- #48,649
- Dec 5, 2008 11:12pm Dec 5, 2008 11:12pm
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Let the market come to you | 2,670 Posts
Crikey!! Set my stops, took one last long look at the charts, left to go pick up my wife from work, came back and found my entire grand plan had gone south to Stopsville...
Took another short look at everything and went to bed for a few hours after probably being up for too long. Crash investigation will probably find "operator error..."
Oh well, that's what stops are for i guess but it still bites. What in the blazes that runup was, and where it came from is what I'll be trying to sort out before Monday. I have no plans to trade...
There was some kind of support there that I couldn't figure out at the time. I am curious to see what you find. Your "generous donation" includes the rest of us as recipients - not of pips but of your commentary. - #48,650
- Dec 5, 2008 11:13pm Dec 5, 2008 11:13pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: TARFU... | 7,015 Posts
The 5 minute EJ chart shows BB pinch and what could become a break up ....possible trade.
FUBAR...
- #48,651
- Dec 5, 2008 11:17pm Dec 5, 2008 11:17pm
Crikey!! Set my stops, took one last long look at the charts, left to go pick up my wife from work, came back and found my entire grand plan had gone south to Stopsville...
Took another short look at everything and went to bed for a few hours after probably being up for too long. Crash investigation will probably find "operator error..."
Oh well, that's what stops are for i guess but it still bites. What in the blazes that runup was, and where it came from is what I'll be trying to sort out before Monday. I have no plans to trade...
DireXiv
Make it happen, no one
else is going to do it for you...
- #48,652
- Dec 6, 2008 12:15am Dec 6, 2008 12:15am
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: TARFU... | 7,015 Posts
There was some kind of support there that I couldn't figure out at the time. I am curious to see what you find.
I have a screen shot from midday thursday ((no news events at all ) of a 31 pip EJ spread where the ASK shot up above the figure from the mid 70's at the end of 6-8 pip 5m candle that closed and then dropped 20 -25 pips... while remaining at 12 to 18 pips for nealry half an hour. That move took out alot of stops or trailers I'm sure. The bid price never moved and so the candle doesn't show it. It was pure dumb luck I caught it with my "instant on" screen capture program.
I called ibfx and took them to task about it, the answer officially being the EJ pair only is a "floating pair tfn and is subject to extreme spreads at any time for no reason..", their liquidity providers being the originators of those spreads, they say.
So unfortunately my stops reflected that potential and being gone, it was a "perfect storm" of circumstance. On any other day they'd have kept me in the trade and I'd be fat pips at the bottom somewhere.
To your point tho, it seems like there are several things that may have contributed to this move, but at this point, i doubt i'm going to figure it out. There was a FED release ((but not something you'd get on any calendar)) that gives notice of the FED printing new paper in apparently extraordinary volumes and the time stamp happens to closely coincide with the initially explosive move back up after the first climb where my entries got hit then dropped. I'm still trying to decipher it tho and frankly that kind of thing is not my strong suit.
I've since found out a couple of the "volume watcher" geppy traders have found some clues from their systems that they think helps to understand the move as well. Honestly it could be all, some or none of the above.
One thing I'm learning tho is that futures ((which I don't watch)) apparently sold off right at the close again similar to a couple of previous large gap down openings on sunday, so that will bear watching unless that anticipated follow thru collapse is delayed into NY or so to add "confirmation" the bottom is in and it's all bullish from here on... right before the very large boot drops hard.
I can easily see that scenario playing out and that sort of sentiment was behind my trade direction today but for different reasons. That's what systems and plans are for tho. None of them are perfect, the market rules, I just look for crumbs and get stepped on if I spend too much time looking down, plus I tend to abandon ship reluctantly unless scalping.
Someday I'll be smarter maybe and jump sooner but that's tomorrow and I only know one way to get there. Keep trading...!!
FUBAR...
- #48,653
- Dec 6, 2008 12:47am Dec 6, 2008 12:47am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Sharpen the Scalper Razor | 4,704 Posts
ADD:
Phase one complete...
all entries in and locked, now please dear God make this drop and I promise i'll never bother jaywalker again.
BTW: I'm in the same sh$t (almost)
- #48,654
- Dec 6, 2008 1:17am Dec 6, 2008 1:17am
Poor Jay, you gonna bother him double now?
BTW: I'm in the same sh$t (almost)
....anyways according to the chart analysis i think the buying point should be at 1.2751; based on a strong demand in the market.
and the selling point is at 1.2590; based on a break of a strong support.
All The Best!!!
{Promotion Removed}
- #48,655
- Dec 6, 2008 2:17am Dec 6, 2008 2:17am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Self-proclaimed psychologist | 3,179 Posts
I have taken into great consideration all that has happened this past week. I have come to realize that cobra has been right all along. I am just like him in the sense that I contribute freely to this thread purely because it is within my nature to be giving, it gives me great pleasure to be of help when possible.
Before anything else, I must apologize to everyone for I have disrespected myself and in turn everyone else with my "hard times". This week has been more of a wake up call of certain things needing a change in my life that I will greatly take into account. Somehow I managed to pull off another winning week with all buy orders..but enough about me..lets get down to business.
Fundamentally I will keep my opinions my owns for now as each day presents a great new challenge and wild speculation is something we can all do and be wrong. There are just too many forces at work which none of us can fully comprehend and as day traders it is not worth bothering with. Until signifcant improvement is made in the economy these are uncertain times with the pending question "how bad can it get" always looming overhead. Until then 2 things are clear...1) the long term bias has been short for some time now and will take a significant move to the upside to change this. 2)intraday bias changes day by day, hour by hour, all it takes is a "he said that or she said this or even some crazy data as Fridays NFP which was amazing by all standards.
Technically we are in one of the most uncertain times I have encountered in my short forex career. Since the end of October we have entered a consolidation period that may not end any time soon. This is represented through a wedge(triangle on daily charts) which is slowly reaching the end. Fridays price action was wild at best. The initial reaction to the NFP was a selloff which was followed by a return to pre selloff levels at the close. This adds even more to the consolidation period and confusion as the 1.2720 is the halfway point in this massive wedge we have seen for over a month. The way the market closed leaves room for any possibility and any new positions should be considered carefully..scalping is king until a decisive break of this wedge, 1.2450 to the downside (new low is ideal) and 1.2950 or more to the upside. Naturally...within the wedge as 1.2720 is the halfway point..pa above it indicates a bullish bias and below a bearish bias.
Before anything else, I must apologize to everyone for I have disrespected myself and in turn everyone else with my "hard times". This week has been more of a wake up call of certain things needing a change in my life that I will greatly take into account. Somehow I managed to pull off another winning week with all buy orders..but enough about me..lets get down to business.
Fundamentally I will keep my opinions my owns for now as each day presents a great new challenge and wild speculation is something we can all do and be wrong. There are just too many forces at work which none of us can fully comprehend and as day traders it is not worth bothering with. Until signifcant improvement is made in the economy these are uncertain times with the pending question "how bad can it get" always looming overhead. Until then 2 things are clear...1) the long term bias has been short for some time now and will take a significant move to the upside to change this. 2)intraday bias changes day by day, hour by hour, all it takes is a "he said that or she said this or even some crazy data as Fridays NFP which was amazing by all standards.
Technically we are in one of the most uncertain times I have encountered in my short forex career. Since the end of October we have entered a consolidation period that may not end any time soon. This is represented through a wedge(triangle on daily charts) which is slowly reaching the end. Fridays price action was wild at best. The initial reaction to the NFP was a selloff which was followed by a return to pre selloff levels at the close. This adds even more to the consolidation period and confusion as the 1.2720 is the halfway point in this massive wedge we have seen for over a month. The way the market closed leaves room for any possibility and any new positions should be considered carefully..scalping is king until a decisive break of this wedge, 1.2450 to the downside (new low is ideal) and 1.2950 or more to the upside. Naturally...within the wedge as 1.2720 is the halfway point..pa above it indicates a bullish bias and below a bearish bias.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
- #48,656
- Dec 6, 2008 7:34am Dec 6, 2008 7:34am
- Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Are you sure this is how its done? | 2,331 Posts
I was just sitting hear playing the what if game. I am not saying that I believe in any way that my chart is predicting future price moves. I was just wondering if Doblece mite be looking at something like this with her Wolf Wave indicator. Doblece if you check in anytime soon, please tell use if this fits your WW rules Best I can tell, it should.
Best I can tell, it should.
- #48,659
- Dec 6, 2008 7:55am Dec 6, 2008 7:55am
- Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Are you sure this is how its done? | 2,331 Posts
see.
A little help would be nice. Are you trying to point out three patterns or one sequence of waves. Please just a little more information for those of us in the cheap seats.
