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Elliott Wave Counting with EG

  • #21
  • Mar 9, 2007 5:11pm Mar 9, 2007 5:11pm
Actually, as I recall, the 5 waves are detirmined by the next larger scale set of waves. So for example, if you are in a 3rd wave of a larger wave, the set of five waves that make up that third wave, the ones that are in the same direction as the 3rd wave are primary or 5 wave patterns and the ones that are counter to the 3rd wave are corrective 3 wave patterns. It is not a matter of up or down.
  • #22
  • Mar 9, 2007 9:20pm Mar 9, 2007 9:20pm
need some faith to count E.W.
  • #23
  • Mar 11, 2007 7:00pm Mar 11, 2007 7:00pm
I do not have any update on my EW count as of now except....

My Wave 4 has expanded. Although it is supposed to go down further for the wave 5, my other indicators are telling me something else.

Unless we can cover the Wave 5 ground in 2-3 hours during the Asian Session..... then we might just finish this Wave 5.

Because I am looking at seeing Cable reach or aim for the following Targets soon:
1.9412 1.618 Level Retrace
1.9505 2.618 Level Retrace

EG
  • #24
  • Mar 11, 2007 7:12pm Mar 11, 2007 7:12pm
Quoting AmatPro
A newb question perhaps: it seems Elliot Wave means that when the market goes up (long) you get 5 waves and when the market goes down (short) you get 3 waves.

What I do not understand is how in FX there can be an 'up' or a 'down', since up for one currency of a pair means down for the other and vice versa.
Let us see if this will help you.

It is true that :

1. we say we Buy the Cable when it is up and we Sell the USD because it is down
2. we say we Sell the Cable when it is down and we Buy the USD because it is UP

Above is describing the status of each Currency and why we Buy or Sell the particular currency .

However, when we refer to the currency PAIR as a WHOLE like GBPUSD
Then we can say that GBPUSD is UP when the Cable is UP
and we say that the GBPUSD is DOWN when the Cable is DOWN.

Note that we are referring to the Status of the Currency in the FIRST POSITION.

The other scenario which is not usually used is when people use the term USDGBP. then everything I believe is referred to the otherway around. ( Please somebody correct me if I got this all wrong ). I will not expound on the USDGBP is this is not the STANDARD.

You can focus on the GBPUSD Pair reference for better illustration.

I hope this helps.

As to the wave being a 5 waves or 3 waves, it is best that you read on Robert Prechter's Book on " Elliott Wave Principles ".
There are are 3 waves within a Long wave which is normally a a corrective wave inside an Impulse wave and there are also 5waves in a corrective wave which is basically a 3 wave move. But a wave in the corrective 3 waves can have its wave still divided into a 5 wave move. This can happen to a wave a or or a wave c. It depends on various factors and the time frame you are looking at.


EG
  • #25
  • Edited 11:45am Mar 12, 2007 11:33am | Edited 11:45am
Attached is a chart adjusting y5.4 to correct something I missed out on my analysis.

Time factor was supposed to have been incorporated and it would have shown that we were not yet finished with y5.4

And now that y5.4 is a complex wave, then wave y5.5 should take less time than y5.4

If y5.4 was simple and not complex then it would take y5.5 longer to finish.

If you want to know where I got the rules, PM me.
Attached Image
  • #26
  • Mar 12, 2007 12:13pm Mar 12, 2007 12:13pm
If Price and Time was taken into consideration together..... This could have been anticipated.

Price y5.4 > 23.6% < 50% of y5.0 - y5.3
Time y5.4 was a complex wave structure so it is supposed to take longer than y5.0 - y5.3
y5.0 - y5.3 = 26 candlesticks on the 4H Chart
y5.3 - y5.4 = 30 candlesticks actual. I should have expected it to last more than the 26 and if I incorporated the Price factor, then I could have gotten closer to the Peak of y5.4

It was just staring straight at me and I missed that earlier..

EG
Attached Image
  • #27
  • Mar 12, 2007 12:49pm Mar 12, 2007 12:49pm
I just rec'd the "Elliot Wave Principle" book by Frost and Prechter that I ordered from eBay last week.
it looks like a very good one, I will read it as soon as I have time (and energy)... Then I'll join your forecasts to discuss a bit the current situation with an "EW-glass" in front of our eyes if you don't mind, El Grande .
  • #28
  • Edited 1:30pm Mar 12, 2007 1:18pm | Edited 1:30pm
I tried looking at lower time frame to see how the y5.52 is unfolding.

And this is how I see it based on what I am following.

That large plunge is thought to be y5.51 and y5.52 is supposed to unfold based on the following considerations:

Price y5.52 = 50% to 78% of y5.51
Time y5.52 at the minimum should be more than 50% of y5.51
But often , it is from 62% to 162% of y5.51

Analysis:
Price : Target Range for y5.52 is in the Orchid Color Range which is 50% to 78.6% of y5.51

Time :
y5.51 is 6 bars from y5.50
y5.52 from y5.51 should be from 3 to 10 bars]

By the looks of things, we still have time to achieve y5.52 position in the Target Zone

EDIT Addition
***SIC*** Here I go again, I just noticed it now that we have actually reached the 10th bar and yet we only achieved 38.2% Retrace. I actually exited 4 positions at a LOSS when I thought I saw the 50% - 78% Tsrget Zone Rule.

Looking at Technical Indicators now for Direction.... it would seem that m30 and m60 are exibiting a move down.

So I will have to revise my position that now we have finished y5.52 in what I think is a Zigzag corrective wave.

OR I WILL STAY ON THE SIDE AND WAIT ............ FOR ASIAN SESSION LATER or Better if just to Start Trading when Euro Session opens.



EG
Please note that I am still learning EW Analysis. The opinions here are just opinions and are not recommended to be used as basis for your LIVE Trades.
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  • #29
  • Mar 12, 2007 1:47pm Mar 12, 2007 1:47pm
Quoting MarkGavalda
I just rec'd the "Elliot Wave Principle" book by Frost and Prechter that I ordered from eBay last week.
it looks like a very good one, I will read it as soon as I have time (and energy)... Then I'll join your forecasts to discuss a bit the current situation with an "EW-glass" in front of our eyes if you don't mind, El Grande .
Mark

I will look forward to being able to discuss EW count on the Cable with you.

EG

PS.
A Summary / Outline is Found in the EWI site. You might want to go thru that before the details in the book.
  • #30
  • Mar 12, 2007 3:05pm Mar 12, 2007 3:05pm
If y5.2 is a failure in following the rule.....

Could it be that the whole count for this wave Y is wrong?

How about considering the OLD y0 to y3 as just Y0 to Ya Then we should see this current y5.2 as the new Yb which should still see an expansion as a 3 wave move.

If this becomes Yb, then
Price : 50% to 78.6% of Ya
Time : 50% to 100% of Ya

But then again this fails the Time Rule for wave B to UNFOLD as it is already on its 32 bar compared to the 26 bars of A.

...... just a thought

trying to check possible scenarios.

EG
  • #31
  • Mar 12, 2007 3:43pm Mar 12, 2007 3:43pm
Hey nice thread U have started & i was looking for one like this.........well i do not know complete Elliot wave theory but i know bit..........even i m new here in forex.
Monthly chart labelling which u have shown is great to look but i m not able digest it................& from yestraday the moment i show ur chart which is given by ur broker made me confuse & i trying to make myself clear...........sure we will have ball time here with U...............Thanks & go ahead
"Trade for sake of trading & not for winning or Lossing"
  • #32
  • Mar 12, 2007 5:27pm Mar 12, 2007 5:27pm
Quoting HonaForex
Hey nice thread U have started & i was looking for one like this.........well i do not know complete Elliot wave theory but i know bit..........even i m new here in forex.
Monthly chart labelling which u have shown is great to look but i m not able digest it................& from yestraday the moment i show ur chart which is given by ur broker made me confuse & i trying to make myself clear...........sure we will have ball time here with U...............Thanks & go ahead
Hona, do you look at higher timeframes too? I know you trade the M5 mostly. I think it's better to have only 2-3 timeframes, the more Waves and Subwaves we have, the more possibilities where something can go wrong!
  • #33
  • Mar 12, 2007 8:21pm Mar 12, 2007 8:21pm
Quoting MarkGavalda
Hona, do you look at higher timeframes too? I know you trade the M5 mostly. I think it's better to have only 2-3 timeframes, the more Waves and Subwaves we have, the more possibilities where something can go wrong!
Mark, I agree, in fact we must only trade based on 1 timeframe (both entry and exit), never change timeframe in the middle of trade! I remember a senior trader told that in a chatroom somewhere. However in EW count, having counts at larger timeframes is fine too to tell us about the big picture/trend (but they're not to be used to decide a trade on smaller tf of course).
I'm keeping my own wave counts at larger timeframes (from monthly), it's abit different than EG's counts here tho, but it's oke.
Tra-X
  • #34
  • Edited 11:56pm Mar 12, 2007 11:30pm | Edited 11:56pm
Friends....

Choice of particular TF to check on EW Count is a traders personal choice and level of comfort.

In my experience working and studying EW these last 6 months, I find using EW on monthly, weekly, daily and down to 4hrs too risky to trade as is. Too many things happen in the lower time frame.

I am working on maximizing potential of GBPUSD's volatility by looking at the lower TF too. For me, smaller TF are the building blocks of the higher TF. so if I look at the lower TF too and find discrepancies, then I can work back to the higher TFs and re evaluate my counts.

If I maintain looking at the higher TFs only, then it will take sometime for me to see if there is a discrepancy with the actual counts.

Anyway.... this is a personal choice. Trade and practice what you are comfortable with for as long as you make money using that system.

These are all just tools which are supposed to enhance your level of analysis. Much is still left to a trader's experience, perception and keen understanding of Price, Time and the market.

EG
  • #35
  • Mar 13, 2007 12:17am Mar 13, 2007 12:17am
Quoting HonaForex
Hey nice thread U have started & i was looking for one like this.........well i do not know complete Elliot wave theory but i know bit..........even i m new here in forex.
Monthly chart labelling which u have shown is great to look but i m not able digest it................& from yestraday the moment i show ur chart which is given by ur broker made me confuse & i trying to make myself clear...........sure we will have ball time here with U...............Thanks & go ahead
Thank you Hona.

I would look forward to us all sharing our EW insights and counts for the Cable here with Mark too and hopefully Traex.

As to the EW count on the monthly, you can isolate the markings based on the Color and the size of the characters.

Time frames are :

Cycle - red abc wxyz - Quarter Cycle
Primary - Green [ABCD WXYZ] - Monthly Cycle

Then in the weekly and Daily charts you have the
Intermediate or the weekly Cycle and the
Minor or the Daily Cycle.

I have further broken up the waves in the 4H and the Hourly and sometimes even on the m30 charts. Most brokers would stop at 8H, 2H and just sometimes 1H Charts.

Me for now..... I would like to check as far down the Timeframe as I think is needed for me to get an idea as to where the prices are about to go to. It is a lot of work and time. But I want to do it so that I leave no doubts in my mind as to "what if's" had I checked the lower TFs. If later I do not see any significant advantage in checking the lower TFs, then I can get convinced as a Trader not to waste my time doing the lower TFs.

EG
  • #36
  • Edited 4:08am Mar 13, 2007 2:27am | Edited 4:08am
Quoting el grande
Thank you Hona.

I would look forward to us all sharing our EW insights and counts for the Cable here with Mark too and hopefully Traex.

As to the EW count on the monthly, you can isolate the markings based on the Color and the size of the characters.

Time frames are :

Cycle - red abc wxyz - Quarter Cycle
Primary - Green [ABCD WXYZ] - Monthly Cycle

Then in the weekly and Daily charts you have the
Intermediate or the weekly Cycle and the
Minor or the Daily Cycle.

I have further broken up the waves in the 4H and the Hourly and sometimes even on the m30 charts. Most brokers would stop at 8H, 2H and just sometimes 1H Charts.

Me for now..... I would like to check as far down the Timeframe as I think is needed for me to get an idea as to where the prices are about to go to. It is a lot of work and time. But I want to do it so that I leave no doubts in my mind as to "what if's" had I checked the lower TFs. If later I do not see any significant advantage in checking the lower TFs, then I can get convinced as a Trader not to waste my time doing the lower TFs.

EG
Lol u have great Attitude,offcourse this is wat Elliot wave ask form us..............its difficult but someone have to do it & great u have taken responsibilty...........well U R not alone no more even i m there & let us unfold the cable wave.
Lol i had my won Elliot wave chart as even Travex has.........so i studied ur waves & it took me two days,so that i can speak in ur language to unfold wave.
Well i believe ur y552 is in process................but for me ur y552 is finished & y553 is in process................where y5531,y5532 & y553 finished right now & i m looking ur y5534 to 1.9305/10 right now
"Trade for sake of trading & not for winning or Lossing"
  • #37
  • Mar 13, 2007 2:56am Mar 13, 2007 2:56am
Quoting MarkGavalda
Hona, do you look at higher timeframes too? I know you trade the M5 mostly. I think it's better to have only 2-3 timeframes, the more Waves and Subwaves we have, the more possibilities where something can go wrong!
Lol 1m,5,5m,15 are watching fromula one car race from the camers of cars which are fast & really trill watching them or we can say front veiw, where we r going & wat is in front than wat is ahead,but higher time are like watching formula one sitting on helicopter or top veiw of market in Engeering terms.
Elliot wave behaves diff in diff time frame there4 according to me,to make urself clear & confident about trading better to to see as much time frame requried..........wat I seen sometime wave r correct in one time frame & wrong in other.
Trading is all about dicovering urself than the market bcos market & Money is only reason to discover ourself ...............this is my philoshopy towards the market
"Trade for sake of trading & not for winning or Lossing"
  • #38
  • Edited Mar 14, 2007 12:15am Mar 13, 2007 11:23pm | Edited Mar 14, 2007 12:15am
Based on the chart on Post # 28, I am more inclined to go for a LONG trade now for at least

1st TP @ 1.9374
2nd TP @ 1.9435 but this 2nd TP will revice our y5.4B and y5.4C counts...\


SL @ 1.9276 for the BRAVE ONES

SL @ 1.9046 for the faint @ heart )

Happy Trading Everyone. Hoping to increase my DEMO acct today.

EG

PS entered @ 1.9296

1st SL taken
2nd SL is the "relaxed " SL but expensive to hold.
  • #39
  • Mar 15, 2007 2:03am Mar 15, 2007 2:03am
If you took the 1st SL, then you would have lost that trade.

But if you were not necessarily faint at heart... you would have opted for the 250pip SL. Or you could have watched your trade and removed the SL or just added money to cover additional SL.

Then you would have sustained that slight Fall and then recover to the Upside and still profited from the move to the Target Price Zone as forecasted.

EG
  • #40
  • Mar 15, 2007 2:35am Mar 15, 2007 2:35am
What a good effort u putting in, el_grande. Keep it up man. I'm backing you up since I do trade using EW.
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