AUD/USD

'The conclusion is clearly that further easing of policy can

be expected over coming months to take policy to accommodative

settings,' said ANZ senior currency strategist Tony Morriss.

The market is pricing in a cut of at least 75 basis

points at the RBA's December policy meeting and a further easing

to around 3.5 percent by March.

Morriss noted that with so much easing already priced in, an

actual cut in December might not be so negative for the Aussie,

especially if it was seen supporting economic growth.

However, the weakness of the global economy, and lately

China, meant commodity prices could fall yet further, with grim

repercussions for a resource exporter like Australia.

'We now see the Aussie staying weaker for longer in light of

the global slowdown,' said Morriss. He predicted a drop below 60

cents in 2009 and even a move toward 54 by year-end.

The November minutes also suggested the RBA would not try and

stand in the way of further falls. The central bank made the

point that its intervention of recent weeks was not intended to

defend any particular level of the Aussie but rather to provide

liquidity in disorderly markets.

HS South just Formed.
Perhaps post too late to profit from but 0.6368 in view.

long until spring?

These are just my thoughts so please plan your trade and trade your plan.

I agree with this report:

"Aussie and Kiwi remained within recent ranges but these currencies remain on a
weak footing as commodity prices slide and are not expected to rally in the near
future. Meanwhile the Rudd government will set up a special $2 billion fund to keep
the nation’s fledging auto industry on its foot amid the global auto crisis. If the fears
of a severe slowdown in China come true, then this would act as the biggest catalyst
to push the Australian economy well and truly in recessionary mode.

What Next?

It is just a matter of time when the Aussie goes down below 60 cents and Kiwi slips
below 50 cents. Housing industry is the next major focus in Australia and New
Zealand as activity falls to record low levels. U.S. Payrolls is eyed to provide further
direction."

Plus there is still a strong chance that the RBA will cut rates again early next year, my target if we get a good close under .6330 on the 1 Hr or 4 Hr is .6080 region and long term i would be looking for the FE 61.8 from the drop down from .9848 which is at .5560 on this monthly chart.

http://i136.photobucket.com/albums/q...ts/FE618-1.jpg

Big Wave Rider made a good point on the other Aussie thread:

"Could be priced in. We have blown past almost every support level possible in a very short amount of time. I doubt it will go any lower plus central banks are starting to intervene in almost all currencies. I have this feeling we will either range for the rest of this year and a few weeks into 2009 before anything else happens. But I could be wrong."

GP

Agree with the analysis - we (Australia) could possibly be the last of the G10 to enter into a recession - and if that is the way it will play out - our recession will be a shallow one.

AUD seems to be a fair value at the moment, could certainly go below 60c and stop anywhere between there and 37c - but i dont think a drop that big will stay for very long.

the AUD has been the only currency which hasnt fallen as bad as some of the others - and the USD is already being said as "due for correction".

Though i am only playing the AUD on othe AUD/NZD (long) and GBP/AUD (short) crosses.

looking to long above 0.6566, as long the 0.6492 holds, otherwise market is widening and wouldn't trust a breakout as much anymore

closed a good portion of the long position now that London closes and letting the rest run

daily chart with descending triangle pattern, if plays out could see this pair trade down to 0.5000 as a minimum.... timing is the key for a 20-30% decline

Needs to build some more mo mo.

It been a laggard past couple days.

Needs a real catalyst and some decent news out of china / india.

PS: I am buying on this dip

will it catch a bid on the rate cut or fall further?

The Aussie does some great work and seems to me to be more predictable than many of the majors, particularly the GBP and EUR, as there are fewer factors acting on it. So just like the very excellent Cable Update (GBPUSD) thread and the EURUSD thread, I thought I would try to keep this AUD/USD thread a bit more current and keep the thoughts flowing about what this pair might be up to.

Hope it works! I trade this pair all the time, along with EURUSD and EURAUD.

I like it long..been creeing up consistantly, but waiting because of bearish divergence on some longer timeframes. It's getting pinched between the 20 and 100 SMA on teh daily, with the 60 SMA not far below. Not sure I'll get a chance to buy cheaper, looks poised to breakout.

hi i like AUD/USD it is one of the best pairs to trade

I tend to trade on the fundamentals, but of course it is not the fundamentals that buy and sell the pairs, it is the people, and traders seem to go on their charts, certainly in these forums. Any Chartists' thoughts on what the Aussie might do would be great.

The Reserve bank of Australia (RBA) is due to meet next month, 3rd Feb with the results being released at 2:30pm Eastern Australian Time (3:30am 3rd Feb London time). Because of the continuing credit crisis and the much worse than expected housing approval figures, there are preliminary expectations of further rate drops.

Since the low of November 20, 2008 (0.61017) there has been a steady recovery of 1017 pips. With no real news risk events due to occur until the Feb rate announcement, I wouldn't expect the Aussie to drop before about a week out from the announcement. The anticipation of a rate cut is likely to act as a resistance to further falls in the mean time as traders wait for the right entries for short positions.

Since the temporary drop induced by the housing approvals announcement the Aussie has begun to rise again (see graph below). I would predict a trading range of 0.710 - 0.718 today (9th Feb, 2009) based on these considerations.

Yeah. I have been targeting .78 myself. Seems like it's been holding back on a substantial bull move.

I am long from 0.71072 at the moment. I have a limit at 0.717 incase it doesn't quite make the 0.718. Pair is a bit sluggish though. Still, not as stressful as the wild swings this pair is sometimes capable of.

May take a while to reach .77.

I hope NFP tomorrow doesn't get played the opposite by the street. we know it's going to be bad, we need tit to be REAL BAD.

I am thinking oil sell off today is just in prep for oil surge tomorrow on weaker dollar. Gold will likely soar, too.

Hmm, some AUD/USD discussion going on in the james16 Chart Thread.

Nice charts. I don't quite follow what all the acronyms are:

PB, PF, PPZ, TBH?? Also what does SMA mean TIckerShuffl?

SMA = Standard Moving Average

See you later...heading out soon catch some live music with some old friends and have some drinks.