Cable Update (GBPUSD) @ Forex Factory

Qu|cksilver · #1 Nov 18, 2006 11:16pm

Hi,
Does anyone agree cable may go up to 1.9050 area? or will continue bearish when the market open on monday?

AhmedFouad · #2 Nov 18, 2006 11:57pm

It's very risky now.
It might have bottomed near term at 1.8834/36 and managing to rally beyond 1.90 again. And if someone expects this, he may not be wrong because stochastic made a positive cross, a doji plus a bullish candle but thats not too enough.

Someone else might come.. and say no, It's going down. and he also has good reasons. Why? GBPUSD almost touch the 1.8967-65 resistance, and it might be a place to find plenty of sellers. Also the bullish candle didn't close above 1.8953 bearish candle open. rather closed at 1.8946

All in all..Bullish trend is not confirmed, it has to make a close above 1.8967, things are pretty much trapped within 1.8834/36 low / bottom and 1.8965/67 high / top. And only IF bears enter to take control now and push prices lower again, most likely we will break the 1.8834.

I am staying out until either side is broken.

Qu|cksilver · #3 Nov 19, 2006 12:17am

Thanks for your reply.
My strategy when the market open above 1.8950 i will set long because the market open above the resistance.

fingotrader · #4 Nov 19, 2006 8:13am

Hi, I join the tread started by Day Trader and ask you guys the same question about GBPUSD the coming week, any views on where we are going?

Thanks

FT

ghitz · #5 Nov 19, 2006 9:26am

Quote:

Originally Posted by fingotrader

Hi, I join the tread started by Day Trader and ask you guys the same question about GBPUSD the coming week, any views on where we are going?

Thanks

FT

move down stops at 50% retrace from 85 to 9170.

apparent continuation up stalls at 38% retrace from last weeks move down.

me thinks there is a higher probability of this being a pullback for the continuation on the way down rather than a move up. we shall see monday.

Qu|cksilver · #6 Nov 19, 2006 9:27am

Just simple, if the trend tomorrow bullish you buy if bearish you sell

im i correct? Hahahah..

Quote:

Originally Posted by fingotrader

Hi, I join the tread started by Day Trader and ask you guys the same question about GBPUSD the coming week, any views on where we are going?

Thanks

FT

Qu|cksilver · #7 Nov 19, 2006 9:29am

Yes it may pullback but also it may continue bullish..

Quote:

Originally Posted by ghitz

move down stops at 50% retrace from 85 to 9170.

apparent continuation up stalls at 38% retrace from last weeks move down.

me thinks there is a higher probability of this being a pullback for the continuation on the way down rather than a move up. we shall see monday.

ghitz · #8 Nov 19, 2006 10:00am

Quote:

Originally Posted by Qu|cksilver

Yes it may pullback but also it may continue bullish..

that is the other scenario. i am at odds with that one. you could well be right, and the most likely scenario i see contains both.

think monday will be up, and will reverse (between 8990-9020) for continuation down. we will see.

open to both scenarios, up or down.

shahfx · #9 Nov 19, 2006 10:00am

Quote:

Originally Posted by Qu|cksilver

Yes it may pullback but also it may continue bullish..

Hi,the bull and the bear still fighting..

Will follow the winner of that fight... Rite now..me just stand aside..i just wanna trade when the easiest part of PIPS happen..maybe on tuesday..hehehe

africanpip · #10 Nov 19, 2006 10:44am

Quote:

Originally Posted by Qu|cksilver

Yes it may pullback but also it may continue bullish..

You've been reading way too many FX editorials in the Sunday papers

Hellava inciteful.

stealth_hunterz · #11 Nov 19, 2006 8:35pm

well, to me it looks like the bears had been pinned down by the bear not going anywhere further but only hunting for their fishes just right within the perimeter (range bound). It's been struggling too hard. However, it's hard to say for sure and it will eventually break on either sides during the London session. We'll see. I think it would go on to the upside.

Qu|cksilver · #12 Nov 19, 2006 10:50pm

I have done alot of analysis since last friday and it shows cable can go up to 1.9033 maybe.. and i don't think today the price will hit that level because today not much news for gbp and usd.

dukeofdents · #13 Nov 19, 2006 11:34pm

Okay, screw all the fundamentals, right? Everyone is flipping about this big move off housing starts but before that the charts said to go long on USD, right? I don't care what anyone says, I'm a patriotic American and I'm holding my USD longs!

I will throw all of my heart, soul, and money at American hegemony until I can throw no more, then I will borrow it!

In the meantime I'm going long on Yen!

Takisd · #14 Nov 19, 2006 11:41pm

I think we will find lower levels tested again before any trend change. There is too much need to sell in the market. The offers are lower than expected, and the buyers are already all in. 1 surge of sellers and stops are gone. The market is way overbought right now. Entering short with very low margin and just holding it, could land you 300 pips in the long run.(providing you can handle about 100 up max).

NFP will be the deal breaker, and FOMC should move the market also. As the market has been priced at a interest rate decrease. Due to early comments made this month.

I Have short orders in for a break of range. Nothing else. A quick 20 pips. But the price started ontop of the range today, which means it is overbought, and struggling. And the price action looks the same also.

goodthings · #15 Nov 20, 2006 12:34am

The following data is based on this years price movement with the Gbp/Usd

It has moved a 100 pips the difference between the high and low 75% of the time 170/227days
The average distance between the High and Low is 138 pips.
It moves an average of 32 pips against the trend from the opening then reverses and moves 106 pips with the trend above or below its opening price.
The 23.6%retracement has been hit 96.4% of the time 219/227 days
The 38.2% retracement has been hit 82.88% of the time 188/227 days
The 50.0% retracement has been hit 70.4% of the time 159/227 days
The 61.8% retracement has been hit 57.7% of the time 130/227 days.
These retracements are based on either the same day or next day movement.

The average distance between high and low on the first day of the week is 89 pips

On the first day of the week the distance between high and low has been 100 pips are more 38% of the time 17/45 days

The Gbp has move 120 to 140 pips(which it did last Friday) 29 times on Friday with the following first day of the week having a 100 pip movement 9 times 31% of the time

The average day after the Gbp has moved 120-140 pips is 114 pips not including the high of 325 pips and the low of 73 pips.

Taking all this into consideration and looking at the price movement JUST FOR FUN I have purposed the following scenareio. An 82.8 % probability of the cable retracing to 1.8915 which is the 38.2 fib level as well as the daily pivot of last friday's high low close which gives us confluence at that point. It reverses up a max of 100 pips to the 1.9015 level meeting resistence at 1.8957 the MR1P (Middle resistence point between pivot and R1) . Next resistence at the 1.8977 level the previous weeks pivot point and 1.8997 the daily R1. Any thoughts on this and others is appreciated.