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Spud's Predictive MTF Stochastics

  • #1,161
  • Dec 4, 2008 10:07am Dec 4, 2008 10:07am
Quoting jdcompute
I think the priceline was at 90

yep, but priceline doesn't have to follow the origin down, cause spud sez when they separate = a bigger move.

Anyway, I think its just a failed trade. It happens. Get back on the horse and say Giddyap!
Isolate yourself from the herd
  • #1,162
  • Dec 4, 2008 10:07am Dec 4, 2008 10:07am
That eurusd pair is probably due for a little retracement down the fib ladder..38.2 or 50. I'll probably grab the move back up instead of shorting it. We'll see how it goes.
  • #1,163
  • Dec 4, 2008 10:25am Dec 4, 2008 10:25am
Quoting forexweasel
not the cross, just the 5 trigger with the 15 pointing down and closing below 80 (isn't that the original PMTF trade?) It closed at like 78.3 - should have been a warning. Oh well.

I looked at one week of trades with SL at peak and entering every trade triggered by the priceline hitting 90 or 10. There were 24 winners and 4 losers. I didn't count up the pips of the 4 SL's hopefully its way less than the (at least) 200 pips made by the 20 winners. I may look at that again.

maybe spud can analyze the trade to see if was just a bad one or one we...
Ok interesting comments - I'd almost forgotten about the PMTF entry rules thanks for reminding me... Might have to read the PDF again

It seems we enter a lot of these trades though when the 15m hasnt crossed down or up yet and if we wait for it I'm guessing it would have moved well beyond our initial combination entry signal
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,164
  • Dec 4, 2008 10:28am Dec 4, 2008 10:28am
I went long for some quick pips and I'm banking..no real method behind that long entry..just saw how this thing is moving.
  • #1,165
  • Dec 4, 2008 11:12am Dec 4, 2008 11:12am
Alright..maybe we NOW we can stalk a short opportunity. That was a wild ride up.
  • #1,166
  • Dec 4, 2008 11:16am Dec 4, 2008 11:16am
Quoting KudzuFX
ditto
just thot i'd echo weasel's request
good idea to have an email alert for 90/10 cross by 100%K if Lubo could do it
thanks
Here's the indicator again. It puts an arrow on the chart and sends an email when the 100,3,3 crosses 10 or 90. The arrows keep coming. The email hopefully only once (seems to be working so far). don't forget to set the timeframe to 5M or you'll get lots of other signals.

Thanks Lubo

FW

Priceline in extremis
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Priceline In Extremis.mq4   4 KB | 526 downloads
Isolate yourself from the herd
  • #1,167
  • Dec 4, 2008 11:42am Dec 4, 2008 11:42am
well, I had my first couple of fully automatically traded PMF Trades.

I checked one completely through.

Good thing: found a non essential bug (still to solve) but otherwise it performed exactly as it should.

SHORT 1: EUR/USD TRADE ENTRY ca. 15:15:05 GMT

RISK Situation at time of Entry:
SHORT_RISK ! Pair: EUR/USD, TimeFrameLevel: TimeFrameLevel1, SHORT_RISK: 0
SHORT_RISK ! Pair: EUR/USD, TimeFrameLevel: TimeFrameLevel2, SHORT_RISK: 5
SHORT_RISK ! Pair: EUR/USD, TimeFrameLevel: TimeFrameLevel3, SHORT_RISK: 4
SHORT_RISK ! Pair: EUR/USD, TimeFrameLevel: TimeFrameLevel4, SHORT_RISK: 4

LONG_RISK ! Pair: EUR/USD, TimeFrameLevel: TimeFrameLevel1, LONG_RISK: 4
LONG_RISK ! Pair: EUR/USD, TimeFrameLevel: TimeFrameLevel2, LONG_RISK: 3
LONG_RISK ! Pair: EUR/USD, TimeFrameLevel: TimeFrameLevel3, LONG_RISK: 1
LONG_RISK ! Pair: EUR/USD, TimeFrameLevel: TimeFrameLevel4, LONG_RISK: 1



MUST EXIT:
EXIT: CHANGE TO SHORT_RISK:

!!! Using Last_FilterTimeFrame_UTCDateTime: 2008-12-04 15:24:00. Pair: EUR/USD, TimeFrameLevel: TimeFrameLevel1
SHORT_RISK ! Pair: EUR/USD, TimeFrameLevel: TimeFrameLevel1, SHORT_RISK: 3
SHORT_RISK ! Pair: EUR/USD, TimeFrameLevel: TimeFrameLevel2, SHORT_RISK: 5
SHORT_RISK ! Pair: EUR/USD, TimeFrameLevel: TimeFrameLevel3, SHORT_RISK: 4
SHORT_RISK ! Pair: EUR/USD, TimeFrameLevel: TimeFrameLevel4, SHORT_RISK: 4

LONG_RISK ! Pair: EUR/USD, TimeFrameLevel: TimeFrameLevel1, LONG_RISK: 2
LONG_RISK ! Pair: EUR/USD, TimeFrameLevel: TimeFrameLevel2, LONG_RISK: 2
LONG_RISK ! Pair: EUR/USD, TimeFrameLevel: TimeFrameLevel3, LONG_RISK: 1
LONG_RISK ! Pair: EUR/USD, TimeFrameLevel: TimeFrameLevel4, LONG_RISK: 1

MUST MOVE TRADES to other TimeFrameLevel OR CLOSE TRADES !!! Pair: EUR/USD: SHORT_RISK is 3,4 or 5. We got SHORT_RISK: 3

closing market order...


Bad thing: until now all trades are negative.



BUT: The real positive thing is that the basic check for TF group switching worked so far as well as the MUST Exit.


Below my EUR/USD pic with 2 SHORT ENTRIES - and MUST Exit
and one new SHORT still open.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot-2.png Size: 13 KB
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,168
  • Dec 4, 2008 11:48am Dec 4, 2008 11:48am
Quoting forexweasel
Here's the indicator again. It puts an arrow on the chart and sends an email when the 100,3,3 crosses 10 or 90. The arrows keep coming. The email hopefully only once (seems to be working so far). don't forget to set the timeframe to 5M or you'll get lots of other signals.

Thanks Lubo

FW

Priceline in extremis
nice
many pips to ya



.
  • #1,169
  • Dec 4, 2008 11:53am Dec 4, 2008 11:53am
Should we expect the priceline to fall or the origin line to trade back to the price line?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.jpg Size: 98 KB
  • #1,170
  • Dec 4, 2008 12:05pm Dec 4, 2008 12:05pm
Quoting jdcompute
Should we expect the priceline to fall or the origin line to trade back to the price line?

I think its actually a valid entry short right now, but my mouse finger is still singed from the last trade ... I think the 15 may close down however at the next candle.

the peak is about 50 pips away....not too comforting for a SL
Isolate yourself from the herd
  • #1,171
  • Dec 4, 2008 12:18pm Dec 4, 2008 12:18pm
Quoting forexweasel
I think its actually a valid entry short right now, but my mouse finger is still singed from the last trade ... I think the 15 may close down however at the next candle.

the peak is about 50 pips away....not too comforting for a SL
Yeah, I hear you. I'm standing aside right now.
  • #1,172
  • Edited 12:42pm Dec 4, 2008 12:31pm | Edited 12:42pm
Nice NZD/USD short about 40 + PIPs

Will see where the Must Exit hits.


Real nice - I checked: it has moved up and trades now at TF_group M15.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif


--
Attached Image
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,173
  • Dec 4, 2008 12:48pm Dec 4, 2008 12:48pm
Quoting jdcompute
Should we expect the priceline to fall or the origin line to trade back to the price line?
This is a really good question. I've been trying to figure this out myself.
Just focus on the pips. The rest is insignificant.
  • #1,174
  • Dec 4, 2008 1:23pm Dec 4, 2008 1:23pm
Quoting ayaz
This is a really good question. I've been trying to figure this out myself.
This is where you need MTF. However, it is far more likely for Origin to rebound to price, rather than Price to fall to the Origin.

Of course, there are always exceptions. The most obvious is if the Origin stays in the oversold (below 23.6). This will likely draw the price down. Hence you want a breakout of the overmarket to trade the Origin back to price. In cases where the Origin falls away from price to below 23.6, I'd be far more tempted to ride out the Origin below the 23.6, 20 or 15 to catch the oversold dive...if price does fall.

In general, the Origin cycles away from price line and back up to price line (remember smaller stochs oscillate faster)...as the top range weakens, price will start to come down with each move of the origin until it is so weak it follows the origin down or collapses and drops to the origin.

Eventually the price is going to move...our earlier time frames should give us a heads up when this is going to happen.
  • #1,175
  • Edited 7:30pm Dec 4, 2008 5:27pm | Edited 7:30pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Ok Lubo thanks very much it was worth a try

Cheers
Ok,

I coded an indicator where you can choose the number of bars to be calculated and whether the last bar. You can also choose to set a specific TF.

I hope it can be useful.

cheers.

Lubo

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: stochlimit.gif Size: 14 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 #Stoch Limit Bars.ex4   6 KB | 604 downloads
If I know how, I tell You!! Few but Good!!
  • #1,176
  • Dec 4, 2008 8:44pm Dec 4, 2008 8:44pm
Quoting LuboLabo
Ok,

I coded an indicator where you can choose the number of bars to be calculated and whether the last bar. You can also choose to set a specific TF.


I hope it can be useful.


cheers.


Lubo

Thanks lubo that was nice of you thanks - I will check it out
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,177
  • Dec 4, 2008 10:39pm Dec 4, 2008 10:39pm
Quoting LuboLabo
Ok,

I coded an indicator where you can choose the number of bars to be calculated and whether the last bar. You can also choose to set a specific TF.


I hope it can be useful.


cheers.


Lubo


Lubo man you are prolific - another nice one
  • #1,178
  • Dec 4, 2008 11:37pm Dec 4, 2008 11:37pm
Quoting Spudfyre
Ok, let me simplify this....

The chart below identifies the 5 last most obvious, and most reliable trade entries today. I am only looking at the Origin line crossing above 23.6 or below 76.4 and the Price Line with the Origin line. Whether we enter these trades depends on 3 other criteria.....our M5/M15 cross, our M1 filter, and our M5 cross 20/80. Again, this is the pickiest of picky trade entry situations. The 3 other criteria are there to confirm the "off peak" trade developed by the Origin Line and the Price Line.

So, the first criteria...
This MM post has to be one of the most important in this thread IMHO. For me it actually puts the goal of trading for a living into perspective and to be honest, gives me a little hope. I have had the misfortune of chasing those huge pip gains with equally huge drawdowns on my demo accounts for too long. When I think of how many trades I have let slip from positive pips to a stop loss, it makes me sick. These are pips that I earned and let slip away...it drives me absolutely nuts!

Anyhow, lately I've been practicing what Spud has been preaching about the 20 a day with some better success. In and out like a pip sniper...feels good to see the account grow, albeit very slowly. I hope 99% of us do not ignore this important info because this is what all these posts and stoch indicators all over our charts are for; keeping your hard earned pips!

Just my two cents,

JMC
  • #1,179
  • Dec 5, 2008 1:15am Dec 5, 2008 1:15am
Question to all?

I have run some bots over night on multiply pairs (EURUSD,GBPUSD,USDCHF,EURJPY,NZDUSD,AUDJPY,EURGBP,USDTRY,XAGUSD,EURCAD,USDSGD)

and have seen there are plenty of entries.

I'm using Spuds 5 point mechanical Risk assessment - and would like to Filter out even more of the bad signals.




I wanted to ask you - who trade MTF already for some time: In your opinion what would be the best addition to do that:

I could think of some things like:

Quoting jdcompute
Spud, Cindy and I were talking and she is only entering trades once the price line has peaked at 90 or 10. This filters out a lot of trades but pretty much ensures that price is changing direction. ?
or the Rope ?
in what direction M5 points?


would love to hear from you.

MJ
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,180
  • Dec 5, 2008 1:31am Dec 5, 2008 1:31am
Hi MJ another filter I was experimenting with was only taking trades when the rope (red and blue lines) have peaked out at 0 or 100 - Obviously I'm no veteran of this system so cant really give you any long time stats but something to play around with !

Also maybe waiting for the 15m to flatten out or better still be in your direction. But Spud said the other day the way he explained is being the pickiest we could possibly be...

So perhaps going by that you could experiement with the higher TF stochs and making sure they are in better positions to add more weight to your trade - instead of only focusing on the 1m/5m/15/

For example I have noticed is when like there is an obvious Elasticity type set up on the 30m or 15m - where the price line is below 23.6 and the OL is up at 76.4 for example and the 5m is giving a short signal - this seems to be a much stronger signal than blindly following the 1m/5/15m entry rules

Some things to think about - I will be intereted in your findings
Time hides Nothing
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