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EURUSD

  • #48,241
  • Dec 4, 2008 4:16am Dec 4, 2008 4:16am
Quoting SpecialEd
Good morning Driver55.
Morning SpecialEd
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #48,242
  • Dec 4, 2008 4:22am Dec 4, 2008 4:22am
Hi all,
do you know at what time ECB is going to give it's rate decision?
  • #48,243
  • Dec 4, 2008 4:29am Dec 4, 2008 4:29am
8:45am EUR http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif Minimum Bid Rate
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...etail_star.gif
2.75% 3.25%
it's 2 hours and 18 minutes from now...

Quoting Edvardass99
Hi all,
do you know at what time ECB is going to give it's rate decision?
Money management is good for your health...
  • #48,244
  • Dec 4, 2008 4:30am Dec 4, 2008 4:30am
Quoting Edvardass99
Hi all,
do you know at what time ECB is going to give it's rate decision?

13:30 GMT
08:30 EST
  • #48,245
  • Dec 4, 2008 4:30am Dec 4, 2008 4:30am
Quoting Edvardass99
Hi all,
do you know at what time ECB is going to give it's rate decision?
it depend what time you have now. For me the time now is 11:30 and the rate decision will be at 1:45 so 2 hours and 15 minutes from now
  • #48,246
  • Dec 4, 2008 4:31am Dec 4, 2008 4:31am
Quoting 13thheaven
8:45am EUR http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif Minimum Bid Rate
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...etail_star.gif
2.75% 3.25%
it's 2 hours and 18 minutes from now...
thanks a lot
  • #48,247
  • Dec 4, 2008 4:32am Dec 4, 2008 4:32am
Greetings to all fellow traders.

From logical standpoint, this market behaviour today - stocks up, euro down - is telling me that 100bps rate cut is calculated.

As patterns and formations are considered, there are several on different timeframes that will hopefuly bring some pips in this volatile market.

5M gives us a double bottom with bottom of 1,2579 and neckline of 1,2613.

30M gives us a downward channel dating from November 25 which has showed strength so far. Low at the moment is 1,245 and high is 1,2715.

1H gives the breaking of the triangle since Dec2. No retracement has been seen to the lower line of the triangle so far. I studied behaviour of 1,26 mark on the 1H for some time and it showed me that two closes in red below the line will make further gains in the short position.

The best and most reliable formation is looking to be one on the 4H with current low of 1,247 and high of 1,272.


Scalpingwise, I will enter on break of 1,2613 targeting a 1,2635.

On the swing position side, I will buy near 1,247 all the way to the 1,244. Selling will be made near 1,27 to the 1,273.


Good luck!
  • #48,248
  • Dec 4, 2008 4:32am Dec 4, 2008 4:32am
isn't it should be 12:30 GMT?
sorry i mean 12:45 GMT...
Quoting Dazzer
13:30 GMT
08:30 EST
Money management is good for your health...
  • #48,249
  • Dec 4, 2008 4:36am Dec 4, 2008 4:36am
Quoting 13thheaven
isn't it should be 12:30 GMT?
I think its 12:00GMT according to FF.
  • #48,250
  • Dec 4, 2008 4:43am Dec 4, 2008 4:43am
Quoting Dazzer
I think its 12:00GMT according to FF.

lol...
i think u're thinking of the ECB Press conference?
sorry if i'm wrong
Money management is good for your health...
  • #48,251
  • Dec 4, 2008 4:45am Dec 4, 2008 4:45am
Quoting StefanoProdi
Greetings to all fellow traders.

On the swing position side, I will buy near 1,247 all the way to the 1,244. Selling will be made near 1,27 to the 1,273.


Good luck!
Thanks for the assessment, Stef. Easy to get thru and logical, I think.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #48,252
  • Dec 4, 2008 4:54am Dec 4, 2008 4:54am
Quoting 13thheaven
lol...
i think u're thinking of the ECB Press conference?
sorry if i'm wrong
You're probably right. Goin home in a min to watch Bloomberg. They should know
  • #48,253
  • Dec 4, 2008 5:00am Dec 4, 2008 5:00am
Hello everybody,
[IMG]file:///C:/Users/Sergei/AppData/Local/Temp/moz-screenshot-1.jpg[/IMG]
what do you think about 1H double top.

If forecast that ECB is going to cut interest rates 50 point will confirm, I think there we can see the EUR further sharp fall for sure
  • #48,254
  • Dec 4, 2008 5:12am Dec 4, 2008 5:12am
Quoting chuvaki
Hello everybody,
[IMG]file:///C:/Users/Sergei/AppData/Local/Temp/moz-screenshot-1.jpg[/IMG]
what do you think about 1H double top.

If forecast that ECB is going to cut interest rates 50 point will confirm, I think there we can see the EUR further sharp fall for sure
When the last GBP/USD interest rate drop came out, the GBP strengthened, even through its rate fell, therefore, don't jump in too early. Be prudent.
Probability Professor
  • #48,255
  • Dec 4, 2008 5:16am Dec 4, 2008 5:16am
Quoting Shadowfx
I'm long @1.260 with a SL @1.258

Reason:

A. My earlier mentioned retrace...
B. The following can be a possibility:

"ECB and its president always seems to disappoint, they did last month after the BOE slashed rates by 150bp and they probably might again today.
Possible 50bp ECB rate cut with an outside chance of 75bp, the former will likely trigger a snapback in EUR/USD"

T1 @1.2632 (s1) T2 @ 1.266 (ms1) T3 @ 1.2687 (daily pivot)

Just my 2 cents...
Just closed my long position...market is ranging tight around 1.260 awaiting the BOE and ECB rate decisions.

Staying on the sideline till after both been announced, depending on the outcome, this can go both ways....will look for entry point in second wave.

Time to relax a bit...just my 2 cents...
  • #48,256
  • Dec 4, 2008 5:18am Dec 4, 2008 5:18am
Quoting Shadowfx
Just closed my long position...market is ranging tight around 1.260 awaiting the BOE and ECB rate decisions.

Staying on the sideline till after both been announced, depending on the outcome, this can go both ways....will look for entry point in second wave.

Time to relax a bit...just my 2 cents...
I agree, best to stay out until after the decision. (You will experience a lot less stress )
Probability Professor
  • #48,257
  • Dec 4, 2008 5:19am Dec 4, 2008 5:19am
These rate decisions today are worst for trading ever I think. No fundie calls for me, just technical today. From one stand point, you have economy falling, needing a stimulus to revive. Bigger rate cut means better(?) economy. Good economy - strong currency. But, on the other side, with a big rate cut, comes more money which should cause the currency depreciation. Vicious circle it is.
  • #48,258
  • Dec 4, 2008 5:27am Dec 4, 2008 5:27am
Quoting StefanoProdi
These rate decisions today are worst for trading ever I think. No fundie calls for me, just technical today. From one stand point, you have economy falling, needing a stimulus to revive. Bigger rate cut means better(?) economy. Good economy - strong currency. But, on the other side, with a big rate cut, comes more money which should cause the currency depreciation. Vicious circle it is.
In the long term it is projected that the EURO/USD will drop another significant drop, along with the GBP/USD, however, it's a matter of timing the trade right. It's not the best trade to jump in right this second for a long term trade if the rates come out and then there is a retracement, probably to Fibo 38.2 or 50. Let everybody else run around like headless chickens, but us, no, let us wait for the best opportunity and take their coin
Probability Professor
  • #48,259
  • Dec 4, 2008 5:30am Dec 4, 2008 5:30am
Quoting Galation
In the long term it is projected that the EURO/USD will drop another significant drop, along with the GBP/USD, however, it's a matter of timing the trade right. It's not the best trade to jump in right this second for a long term trade if the rates come out and then there is a retracement, probably to Fibo 38.2 or 50. Let everybody else run around like headless chickens, but us, no, let us wait for the best opportunity and take their coin
What is the longer term and what is the significant drop to you?
  • #48,260
  • Dec 4, 2008 5:37am Dec 4, 2008 5:37am
Quoting Shadowfx
Just closed my long position...market is ranging tight around 1.260 awaiting the BOE and ECB rate decisions.

Staying on the sideline till after both been announced, depending on the outcome, this can go both ways....will look for entry point in second wave.

Time to relax a bit...just my 2 cents...
Well...guess I was to impatient..T1 just reached...lady FX never gives you time to relax...
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