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  • #48,001
  • Dec 3, 2008 5:22am Dec 3, 2008 5:22am
Quoting -TryToTrade-
Ho visto che sei italiano di dove sei?
I live in Latina....please speak english in this forum and talk about forex matters regarding eur/usd,it's just a way to be respectful towards other people reading,sorry nothing personal but this is the rule here.
  • #48,002
  • Edited 5:51am Dec 3, 2008 5:26am | Edited 5:51am
Quoting 13thheaven
thx caroline,
but that's not a free site
i can't afford to pay him that sum of money...
but thx anyway
The rules, explanations and chart examples are free... check the menu down on the main page

Here's a direct link to the rules and basic structure:
http://www.wolfewave.com/an_illustra..._the_rules.htm

Another link (simpler):
http://www.nobletrading.com/blogs/20...g-pattern.html
  • #48,003
  • Dec 3, 2008 6:01am Dec 3, 2008 6:01am
wow thx very much sis...
you've been a great help to me

btw anyone still believe that we're going down? i got a sell at 2645... (stop BE)

thx

Quoting doblece
The rules, explanations and chart examples are free... check the menu down on the main page

Here's a direct link to the rules and basic structure:
http://www.wolfewave.com/an_illustra..._the_rules.htm

Another link (simpler):
http://www.nobletrading.com/blogs/20...g-pattern.html
Money management is good for your health...
  • #48,004
  • Dec 3, 2008 6:05am Dec 3, 2008 6:05am
Quoting doblece
Here's the Wolfe chart... sometimes it is not easy to spot the pattern and sometimes also there is simply NO pattern at all... but I have been following up all which I've been seeing and it is pretty much accurate 9 out of 10 times. I wouldn't trade based on this only, though, but it is good to have it as a confirmation of other instruments, like pivots, fibs, etc..

The "timing" thing is what amazes me the most.
Now, I had just spotted another one just before this one (a bullish one and I don't remember on which timeframe) which was giving me...
Doblece, would you consider this a valid pattern on the 15 EJ chart?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej 15 minutes #1 on 12-03-2008.gif Size: 50 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ej 15 minutes #2 on 12-03-2008.gif Size: 50 KB
  • #48,005
  • Dec 3, 2008 6:08am Dec 3, 2008 6:08am
Quoting doblece
Here's the Wolfe chart... sometimes it is not easy to spot the pattern and sometimes also there is simply NO pattern at all... but I have been following up all which I've been seeing and it is pretty much accurate 9 out of 10 times. I wouldn't trade based on this only, though, but it is good to have it as a confirmation of other instruments, like pivots, fibs, etc..

The "timing" thing is what amazes me the most.
Now, I had just spotted another one just before this one (a bullish one and I don't remember on which timeframe) which was giving me...
Shouldn't the point 3 be above point 1?
  • #48,006
  • Dec 3, 2008 6:15am Dec 3, 2008 6:15am
Quoting SunTrader
Shouldn't the point 3 be above point 1?
I browsed thru some of his examples at the url you posted. No, some show #3 below........actually, a chart of a long trade setup showing #3 above #1, a situation similar in that respect to the chart I posted.

Do you know if it is a hard and fact rule that #3 be "outside" #1...?
  • #48,007
  • Dec 3, 2008 6:22am Dec 3, 2008 6:22am
Quoting traderathome
I browsed thru some of his examples at the url you posted. No, some show #3 below........actually, a chart of a long trade setup showing #3 above #1, a situation similar in that respect to the chart I posted.

Do you know if it is a hard and fact rule that #3 be "outside" #1...?
From the WW website - rules:

The 1 point is the bottom (vice versa top) prior to point 2 (top), that 3 has surpassed.

Meaning point 3 is a lower low than point 1 (or vice versa 3 is HH than 1) .
  • #48,008
  • Dec 3, 2008 6:25am Dec 3, 2008 6:25am
Man forex market has been less than exciting compared to summer/fall.

Don't feel like I am missing much. The big question remains...will USd get slammed on all the debt and stimulus monies or will all currencies remain in check due to shared weakness?
  • #48,009
  • Dec 3, 2008 6:30am Dec 3, 2008 6:30am
Quoting SunTrader
Shouldn't the point 3 be above point 1?
Well, tonight (or this morning, actually) is the first I have heard of Wolfe Charts. I've seen posts with these crazy triangle and lines intersecting before, but never paid attention.

Unless I miss my guess, the jist of it is....
1) find 3 points in a line (lows or highs), and
2) find 2 points in a line (highs or lows), and
3) find that the two lines (1-3-5 extended, and 2-4 extended) converge, meaning you have a sort of pennant out of them, and
4) join pt 1 to pt 4 and extend = target line, or EPA, and
5) draw vertical from convergence pt of first two extended lines, to the target line to get the ETA.

Would you say this is correct? If not, I am going to have to start learning this from somewhere.....
  • #48,010
  • Dec 3, 2008 6:36am Dec 3, 2008 6:36am
Quoting SunTrader
Shouldn't the point 3 be above point 1?
Indeed, it should. I'm still learning and this is something that I wonder about (perfect measures "by the book", as well as in Elliott waves... is this a hard and absolute rule? I still don't know...) In fact I had paid more attention to the regular pattern of the "v"s and overlooked the fact that the channel should be climbing (both walls)... I guess I got this confused when I read that post and started trying to spot patterns everywhere... because even after reading the example charts and so on, I still had the (wrong) idea that the result of lines was more like a triangle (waves 3 and 4 both "inside" the previous ones, so the timing cross would happen somewhere near (I had found more accurate ones but the almost parallel channel bothered me a lot as I didn't understand why it seemed to cross so far in the future... I'll have to go back to that post to try to understand why I got the idea so wrong.)

I guess I'll have to start again all over.
Thanks so much for bringing this to my attention, and sorry for the mistake. Though it apparently worked... this means to me that there are maybe other similar patterns that align with the wolfe wave rules.
I'll keep on researching...
  • #48,011
  • Dec 3, 2008 6:47am Dec 3, 2008 6:47am
Quoting traderathome
Doblece, would you consider this a valid pattern on the 15 EJ chart?
Given the above rectifications, I wouldn't think so.
Additionally, even without them, one of the things that I consider important in the wolfe wave is that the point 5 has to be much lower (or much higher in a bearish wolfe) than the line formed by points 1 and 3. Point 5 is also the entry point which will go "straight" to the target and on your charts there is a huge fall after the point...

If I hadn't reconsidered what SunTrader pointed to my attention, I would take the base of the fall as point 5, but now I really think I have to ponder all the details in depth.

The "by the book" waves are clear here:
http://www.nobletrading.com/blogs/20...g-pattern.html

Something I found on another page:
Quote
It is also important to note that Wolfe Waves, along with most pattern trading strategies, are highly subjective. (For further reading on this kind of subjectivity, see Launching Elliott Wave into the 20th Century.) The key to profiting is accurately identifying and exploiting these trends in real time, which can be more difficult than it sounds.

Source: http://www.investopedia.com/articles.../05/040405.asp

This is not to justify anything, but confirms the fact that we might not always find "exact and perfect by the book" (as neither for Elliott waves) patterns. Another quote of the same page:

Quote
The overriding factor in identifying the Wolfe Wave pattern is symmetry. ... the most accurate patterns exist where, between 1-3-5, there are equal timing intervals between wave cycles.

Which is what pointed out to me the possible pattern on my former chart (the "v"s practically equal).
So maybe it's a little from here and a little from there... and if not, maybe we'll be discovering something else
  • #48,012
  • Dec 3, 2008 6:53am Dec 3, 2008 6:53am
I don't look for Wolfe Waves on a regular basis but I made the mistake in the past of assuming that the rules mean this or mean that.

But there are really just as they are written.

Bullish w/w:

Point 2 is a top

Point 3 is bottom after first decline (from point 2 naturally)

Point 1 is the bottom prior to point 2 that 3 has surpassed (making point 3 lower than point 1)

Point 4 is top of the rally after point 3 (deosn't say if this can be higher than point 2 though but I would think not)

Point 5 is bottom after point 4 and is likely to exceed extended line of points 1 to 3.

Pattern forming of a flat or declining, narrowing wedge.

Bearish w/w:

everything the reverse.
  • #48,013
  • Dec 3, 2008 7:05am Dec 3, 2008 7:05am
Quoting doblece
Given the above rectifications, I wouldn't think so.
Additionally, even without them, one of the things that I consider important in the wolfe wave is that the point 5 has to be much lower (or much higher in a bearish wolfe) than the line formed by points 1 and 3. Point 5 is also the entry point which will go "straight" to the target and on your charts there is a huge fall after the point...

If I hadn't reconsidered what SunTrader pointed to my attention, I would take the base of the fall as point 5, but now I really think I have to ponder...
You question the great fall to #5. But the Wolfe site clearly points out that #5 is LIKELY to breach the 1 to 3 extension line! In other words, #5 DOES NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENT A THRID POINT ON THAT LINE, and in fact most often DOES NOT.
  • #48,014
  • Dec 3, 2008 7:13am Dec 3, 2008 7:13am
More rules:
Quote
Here are some key points to remember for identifying Wolfe Waves:

  1. Waves 3-4 must stay within the channel created by waves 1-2.
  2. Waves 1-2 equal waves 3-4 (showing symmetry).
  3. Wave 4 revisits the channel of points established by waves 1-2.
  4. There should be regular timing intervals between waves.
  5. Waves 3 and 5 are usually 127% or 162% (Fibonacci) extensions of the previous channel point.

Funny thing is that point 5 in my chart IS a 162% fib extension... but point 3 is definitely NOT

traderathome, I'm not questioning your point 5, but the textbook pattern shows a direct path from the point 5 to the target. Maybe you put the number too far from the point then? because I see it precisely aligned with 1 and 3... and that's what seemed weird because additionally you're taking a point in the middle of a wave... I guess this was the misunderstanding then, by what you say now I get that point 5 is the bottom of the fall?

Anyway, what seems more interesting to me is to discover if this still works even if only half of the conditions are met... and why.
  • #48,015
  • Dec 3, 2008 7:17am Dec 3, 2008 7:17am
Quoting doblece
What seems more interesting to me is to discover if this still works even if only half of the conditions are met... and why.
Coincidental.

A coin flip is right 50% of the time.
  • #48,016
  • Dec 3, 2008 7:22am Dec 3, 2008 7:22am
Good Morning all, did I get in on the EW forum?

Glad to see you drop by TIckerShuffl. Yes it hasn't quite been the same market past few days.
  • #48,017
  • Edited 7:37am Dec 3, 2008 7:27am | Edited 7:37am
Quoting SunTrader
Coincidental.

A coin flip is right 50% of the time.
That's the point... 50% but not 90%? This was the reason I finally posted one of the patterns that I noticed... I've been following this over a dozen and only one failed the target and went completely opposite, and one went in the direction given but didn't reach as far. All the other (including this one which is not the best BTW) went over the target point... some ahead some delayed as to timing but 90% accuracy in a wrongly conceived pattern can't just be plain luck... (or maybe the previous ones were indeed "by the rules" and I happened to post the wrong one, LOL...).

Anyway this has given to me the opportunity to reassess and learn better all the subject so I am really thankful for it. Sometimes it's right to be wrong!

P.S.: I think Wolfe wave is a particular form of M and W patterns:
http://www.articlesbase.com/finance-...ern-83990.html
  • #48,018
  • Dec 3, 2008 7:43am Dec 3, 2008 7:43am
Tha

Quoting doblece
Here's the main website where it's all explained:

http://www.wolfewave.com/

Regards
Caroline
  • #48,019
  • Dec 3, 2008 8:51am Dec 3, 2008 8:51am
Quoting SunTrader
I don't look for Wolfe Waves on a regular basis but I made the mistake in the past of assuming that the rules mean this or mean that.

But there are really just as they are written.

Bullish w/w:

Point 2 is a top

Point 3 is bottom after first decline (from point 2 naturally)

Point 1 is the bottom prior to point 2 that 3 has surpassed (making point 3 lower than point 1)

Point 4 is top of the rally after point 3 (deosn't say if this can be higher than point 2 though but I would think not)

Point 5 is bottom after point 4 and is likely...
Isn't it just a elliot wave??
Well I am new to wolfwave...

Sonic
  • #48,020
  • Dec 3, 2008 9:43am Dec 3, 2008 9:43am
Quoting sonicdeejay
Isn't it just a elliot wave??
Well I am new to wolfwave...

Sonic
No nothing to do with EW at all.
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