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  • #47,741
  • Dec 1, 2008 2:55pm Dec 1, 2008 2:55pm
Quoting emda
that dow sell is doing nicely psiholog
and considering that drop in dow and in oil (49.075 now) and in gold (771.70). I'm am very impressed of EURUSD today... why didn't drop?
my honest opinion...today was needed..the stock market had to do this to finally get rid of all those shorts. i think the true stock bull rally starts tommorow and it will be nothing but up from here. the eur/usd enforces this "thought" as a new low was not made..instead it feels more of an "iceberg order" as mikkom said long ago...stocking up on long positions at the low to start the eur/usd rally up. still this is only speculation...lets break todays range first before making any concrete assumptions
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #47,742
  • Dec 1, 2008 2:57pm Dec 1, 2008 2:57pm
Quoting Shadowfx
I just love it when a plan comes together....
I saw that...good call.
  • #47,743
  • Dec 1, 2008 3:01pm Dec 1, 2008 3:01pm
Time to sit back and watch for a few... I was a scalping machine today

I even scalped a few points on the DOW as it tanked just before NY close..
  • #47,744
  • Dec 1, 2008 3:10pm Dec 1, 2008 3:10pm
If you ask me.. I see a bottom at 1.2500... am I off? Ignore the triangle, Im sure it will break the top easily.

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  • #47,745
  • Dec 1, 2008 3:10pm Dec 1, 2008 3:10pm
Quoting Shadowfx
I just love it when a plan comes together....
Can I borrow your crystal ball for a few days?
  • #47,746
  • Dec 1, 2008 3:11pm Dec 1, 2008 3:11pm
Quoting psiholog
my honest opinion...today was needed..the stock market had to do this to finally get rid of all those shorts. i think the true stock bull rally starts tommorow and it will be nothing but up from here. the eur/usd enforces this "thought" as a new low was not made..instead it feels more of an "iceberg order" as mikkom said long ago...stocking up on long positions at the low to start the eur/usd rally up. still this is only speculation...lets break todays range first before making any concrete assumptions
yes untill the cc companies pull back on the credit because the larger banks are pulling them back.. when this shoe drops i would rather be short.. in stock market
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #47,747
  • Dec 1, 2008 3:15pm Dec 1, 2008 3:15pm
Quoting gatorinla
yes untill the cc companies pull back on the credit because the larger banks are pulling them back.. when this shoe drops i would rather be short.. in stock market
speaking of the credit freeze....when is the perfect time to unfreeze and allow people to borrow money....in my opinion there is no better time to do this then the holidays when people buy gifts and so on...specifically christmas and what time of year is it now?...its that time of year
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #47,748
  • Dec 1, 2008 3:26pm Dec 1, 2008 3:26pm
Quoting psiholog
speaking of the credit freeze....when is the perfect time to unfreeze and allow people to borrow money....in my opinion there is no better time to do this then the holidays when people buy gifts and so on...specifically christmas and what time of year is it now?...its that time of year
i hear ya.. im just skeptical as you know. all these credit card we owe are bundled up just like the home loans.. and sold just like the home loans were in the market.. when this dries up retail is in trouble. cc for those living on them will dry up.. along with everything connected to it.. for instance retail, commercial realestate and so on.. this plus what is already going on will be a hard row to hoe.. i think we are worse off then they atre saying.. like what is ben gonna say? "we are in the worst shape ever?" no he cant.. im saying we here in the currency market are in the best place to be..i would not bet my best goat in stock market long..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #47,749
  • Dec 1, 2008 3:31pm Dec 1, 2008 3:31pm
Quoting gatorinla
i hear ya.. im just skeptical as you know. all these credit card we owe are bundled up just like the home loans.. and sold just like the home loans were in the market.....
I don't have much of a bias one way or the other..

BUT they say when people are the most pessimistic about the market and predicting and thinking the worst is when we are finally near / at the bottom. And the best buying op. Thats what history shows at least.. I still haven't seen too many wall street types jumping out of windows yet.. so probably not quite there yet..
  • #47,750
  • Dec 1, 2008 3:34pm Dec 1, 2008 3:34pm
Quoting gatorinla
i hear ya.. im just skeptical as you know. all these credit card we owe are bundled up just like the home loans.. and sold just like the home loans were in the market.. when this dries up retail is in trouble. cc for those living on them will dry up.. along with everything connected to it.. for instance retail, commercial realestate and so on.. this plus what is already going on will be a hard row to hoe.. i think we are worse off then they atre saying.. like what is ben gonna say? "we are in the worst shape ever?" no he cant.. im saying we here...
what you say is the problem all of us have and fully agree. the problem is knowing when have we hit rock bottom?...whoever holds the answer to this question and is capable of investing for the longer term will come out ahead of all of us. Why am i inclined to believe we have reached that time? The strongest reason of all is today it has been officially announced we have been in a recession since december 2007. This was reinforced by the 650 point drop in the dow. I also recall from long ago "not sure where i heard or if it is historically true which is why im only skeptical at best now" that the announcement of a recession usually happens after the recession is over. Now I am not saying it is over but from what i do know...the markets usually move ahead of the data which may lead to a strong bull rally for the rest of the year.

Here is a question for you and anyone else willing to answer. What is the average length of a recession since we have been in one for a year now?
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #47,751
  • Dec 1, 2008 3:45pm Dec 1, 2008 3:45pm
Quoting Dansnali
I don't have much of a bias one way or the other..

BUT they say when people are the most pessimistic about the market and predicting and thinking the worst is when we are finally near / at the bottom. And the best buying op. Thats what history shows at least.. I still haven't seen too many wall street types jumping out of windows yet.. so probably not quite there yet..
i agree.. but usually its mostly opinion not fact.. like were are now officially in recession 1 year. ... china.. deflation.. we all felt this before it was official.. yes there is blood in the street i agree.. but is it enough blood yet?.. look cc are gonna get cut off for most because cc bonds are harder to sell now.. if the banks cant sell them they will pull back on the cc.. most people live check to check without the cc. things will slow.. the question is how much.. then if they are already at the max.. and now they have to pay cash 100% of purchase.. little money left over to pay cc bill.. this will then sowball. remember amex is now a bank gaurenteed by the fdic. we saved all the big boys who issued cc.. 700 billion will not fill a crack..we are in the best market in currency, as long as we are on the right side of trade.. after the dust settles and the rain washes the blood maybe that will be a good time to enter that market..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #47,752
  • Dec 1, 2008 3:46pm Dec 1, 2008 3:46pm
According to a stock market analyst on CNBC Europe. the stock market rally will begin around 15th December and possible last until July 2009.

This will be followed by a pull back to new lows.

This recession is not like any other - it is a global financial disaster and is far from over. Many top economists are predicting that deflation will evolve into hyperinflation - so stock up on the soup tins.
  • #47,753
  • Dec 1, 2008 3:51pm Dec 1, 2008 3:51pm
Quoting psiholog
Here is a question for you and anyone else willing to answer. What is the average length of a recession since we have been in one for a year now?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recessi..._of_recessions

"In the 16 U.S. recessions since 1919, the average length has been 13 months, although the recent recessions have been shorter. Thus if the 2008 recession is an average one, the downturn in the stock market should bottom around November of 2008. However some economists fear that this recession may last longer".

Don`t know if this is the answer you were looking for...

Felix
  • #47,754
  • Dec 1, 2008 3:53pm Dec 1, 2008 3:53pm
Quoting FXfelix
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recessi..._of_recessions

"In the 16 U.S. recessions since 1919, the average length has been 13 months, although the recent recessions have been shorter. Thus if the 2008 recession is an average one, the downturn in the stock market should bottom around November of 2008. However some economists fear that this recession may last longer".

Don`t know if this is the answer you were looking for...

Felix
its exactly what i wanted...thank you

lmao we did see a bottom in november...hmm...these next few weeks will be truly interesting...im only 22 and i get to experience america at its worst...wooo!...will i ever experience it at its best?...to be seen haha
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #47,755
  • Dec 1, 2008 3:55pm Dec 1, 2008 3:55pm
this is why i say buy a mule, and salt petter, hard alcohol stocks.. you cant go wrong.. *L*
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #47,756
  • Dec 1, 2008 3:58pm Dec 1, 2008 3:58pm
Quoting psiholog
its exactly what i wanted...thank you

lmao we did see a bottom in november...hmm...these next few weeks will be truly interesting...im only 22 and i get to experience america at its worst...wooo!...will i ever experience it at its best?...to be seen haha
kinda ironic the stock market was almost at its peak when this recession started..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #47,757
  • Dec 1, 2008 3:58pm Dec 1, 2008 3:58pm
Quoting psiholog
its exactly what i wanted...thank you

lmao we did see a bottom in november...hmm...these next few weeks will be truly interesting...im only 22 and i get to experience america at its worst...wooo!...will i ever experience it at its best?...to be seen haha
Well theoretically, out of textbook, an economy will complete it cycle of recession and peak in around 10 years. You'll have plenty of them. lol

And don't flame me. This is something I learn in MICROeconomics years ago. Real world is nothing like textbook example anyways.
  • #47,758
  • Dec 1, 2008 4:02pm Dec 1, 2008 4:02pm
Quoting Shadowfx
I just love it when a plan comes together....
Boffin
Probability Professor
  • #47,759
  • Dec 1, 2008 4:03pm Dec 1, 2008 4:03pm
Quoting c2v4l
Well theoretically, out of textbook, an economy will complete it cycle of recession and peak in around 10 years. You'll have plenty of them. lol

And don't flame me. This is something I learn in MICROeconomics years ago. Real world is nothing like textbook example anyways.
no flaming...fundamentals is why i joined this forum in the first place "warrenforex"....while he got banned it is something that truly interests me. as forex =fundamentals and technical analysis intertwined forever....having a broad knowledge of both is crucial for me. So your post along with all other fundamentals posts i greatly appreciate. It was only fate that i started giving my input on technical analysis as it is my strongpoint haha
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #47,760
  • Dec 1, 2008 4:03pm Dec 1, 2008 4:03pm
Quoting psiholog
its exactly what i wanted...thank you

lmao we did see a bottom in november...hmm...these next few weeks will be truly interesting...im only 22 and i get to experience america at its worst...wooo!...will i ever experience it at its best?...to be seen haha
today was the worst day for stocks since 1932 percentage wise.... we had a depression back then.. i heard about it watching the Waltons..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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