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Spud's Predictive MTF Stochastics

  • #1,021
  • Dec 1, 2008 12:12am Dec 1, 2008 12:12am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Next 1 hour close at 06:00 (05:00 candle) and sticking to the 1 hour chart and hoping for the 30m to get above 80 on the next close so we can jump up another TF.

Risk is still at 20% with the 30m filter under 80% so hold trade -

(sorry just realised this is the 8th chart in this trade I've posted maybe next time I will some how fit it all into 1 smaller post)
Cindy, Where is your Stop Loss at this point in time?

Tks/Harry
  • #1,022
  • Dec 1, 2008 12:21am Dec 1, 2008 12:21am
Quoting Harry123
Cindy, Where is your Stop Loss at this point in time?

Tks/Harry
BE for me - I'm hoping to jump up a TF and can then work out from there the risk % and close it if I have to - I think if I stay on this TF by the time a 60% risk is reached it will have depleted a lot of profits...

Fingers crossed - Perhaps also I will exit if I get a 5m/15m/30m short signal - if you look at the 15m chart also it looks very elastic so I'm a bit worried right now = )
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,023
  • Dec 1, 2008 12:56am Dec 1, 2008 12:56am
The 15m just gave a 0% risk signal short so I exited here for +25 pips based on the fact that the 30m is also looking very elastic.
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Time hides Nothing
  • #1,024
  • Edited 1:36am Dec 1, 2008 12:58am | Edited 1:36am
Quoting Spudfyre
No indicator yet I don't think it is a easy as we non-programmers think to make it.
Don't know how MT4 works - but only an indicator should not be too hard.

The only think is: how to decide to keep track of the 2 crosses.



for anyone interested: my own process is getting quite complicated by now. (well just Spud's system has about 1000 lines of code - properly the 50% is documentations and explanation)

As I implemented also the automatic TimeFrameGroup Switching as well as possible many new entries while we still have trades on other TimeFrameGroups.

In Short:
* I decided to keep Track of all TimeFrameGroups Conditions for Short and Long all the time (reassess at Filter Candle close as this is the lowest interval in a TimeGroup)
* additionally I keep track of each Trade - on which TimeFrameGroup it trades at the moment and switch it accordingly.


It still needs some bits until I can let it loose. hope to get this far today or by tomorrow for a first test run. And then the fun - looking for bugs.

* still not sure what to do when for instance there is a problem (like restart of PC / power failure etc.)
At the moment I keep my tracking in memory so I would not know on which TimeFrame a open trade is. maybe I write it in a file or small database later ....




Quoting CindyXXXX
I personally think it's good without an indicator because it makes you think through whats happening and get a good feel for whats going on instead of blindly following what a bunch of flashing lights may be telling you to do
By the way CindyXXXX makes surely a good point here if one wants to understand the relations within the system.
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,025
  • Dec 1, 2008 1:09am Dec 1, 2008 1:09am
Quoting CindyXXXX
At 01:45 (01:30 candle) No conditions are met for the 15m trade so the thought is to close at +5 pips

BUT... my brain indicator tells me that the trade has only been open for 5m and the 5m 14,1,1 hasn't reached (come close to) 90 yet so SL is set to BE and trade is given another 15m...

hi CindyXXXX,

just some small things I noticed: When you switch TF - should you not adjust your Stoch also: which means the M5 Filter (14,3,3) and the M15(14,1,1)

just some hints ??

nice presentation of your trade

MJ
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__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,026
  • Dec 1, 2008 1:15am Dec 1, 2008 1:15am
Quoting M_j
hi CindyXXXX,

just some small things I noticed: When you switch TF - should you not adjust your Stoch also: which means the M5 Filter (14,3,3) and the M15(14,1,1)

just some hints ??

nice presentation of your trade

MJ
No MJ as far as I'm aware the 5m always stays at 14,1,1 and the rest 14,3,3 but you've got me wondering and I will double check

Thanks
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,027
  • Edited 1:39am Dec 1, 2008 1:27am | Edited 1:39am
CindyXXXX just consider if M5 stays always the same and we apply the same rules to higher TF groups - what about TimeFrame M30 group there we dropped already M5?



one reason why I find it easier to name it like that:

# TimeFrameLevel1: TimeFrame M5 group
FilterTimeFrame=M1 (Stoch_Filter)
MainTimeFrame=M5 (PriceLine, OriginLine, Stoch_Main)
HighTimeFrame=M15 (Stoch_HighFrame)

# TimeFrameLevel2: TimeFrame M15 group
FilterTimeFrame=M5 (Stoch_Filter)
MainTimeFrame=M15 (PriceLine, OriginLine, Stoch_Main)
HighTimeFrame=M30 (Stoch_HighFrame)

# TimeFrameLevel3: TimeFrame M30 group
FilterTimeFrame=M15 (Stoch_Filter)
MainTimeFrame=M30 (PriceLine, OriginLine, Stoch_Main)
HighTimeFrame=H1 (Stoch_HighFrame)

# TimeFrameLevel4: TimeFrame H1 group
FilterTimeFrame=M30 (Stoch_Filter)
MainTimeFrame=H1 (PriceLine, OriginLine, Stoch_Main)
HighTimeFrame=H3 (Stoch_HighFrame) # well others might have H4 - my broker does not supply


AND Stoch_Main has always(14,1,1) all others: (14,3,3)

well just what I do -- not absolutely sure what Spud does - but I understood it lick that - and it makes sense and is consistent.
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,028
  • Dec 1, 2008 1:30am Dec 1, 2008 1:30am
Quoting CindyXXXX
No MJ as far as I'm aware the 5m always stays at 14,1,1 and the rest 14,3,3 but you've got me wondering and I will double check

Thanks
Interesting question raise by MJ.
I change the setting to 14.1.1 for the M30 trigger on the 1H timeframe and it went passed the 76.4 which giave 0% risk. Just for testing purposes after MJ raise the question.
  • #1,029
  • Dec 1, 2008 1:41am Dec 1, 2008 1:41am
Quoting Harry123
Interesting question raise by MJ.
I change the setting to 14.1.1 for the M30 trigger on the 1H timeframe and it went passed the 76.4 which giave 0% risk. Just for testing purposes after MJ raise the question.
It is interesting only Spud can silence our queries here but I'm just going by what Spud says to do I've never seen him change any other TF to 14,1,1 other than the 5m - from what I remember him saying once you can use 14,3,3 on the 5m chart but he personally just prefers the 14,1,1 for that particular TF.

But what you say MJ about consistancy does make logical sense.
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,030
  • Dec 1, 2008 1:46am Dec 1, 2008 1:46am
Quoting Harry123
Interesting question raise by MJ.
I change the setting to 14.1.1 for the M30 trigger on the 1H timeframe and it went passed the 76.4 which giave 0% risk. Just for testing purposes after MJ raise the question.
Do you also know that Spud does not have the Trigger set to (14,1,1)
but the Stoch wich CrossOver the Higher TimeFrame ?

CindyXXXX is right that if you look at most of Spuds pic they do not show any changes in higher time frames - I suppose this is not on purpose but just a human error (we just change the Time but forget easily the Stoch because it would be not confortable ;-)
MJ
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,031
  • Dec 1, 2008 1:55am Dec 1, 2008 1:55am
Quoting M_j
Do you also know that Spud does not have the Trigger set to (14,1,1)
but the Stoch wich CrossOver the Higher TimeFrame ?

CindyXXXX is right that if you look at most of Spuds pic they do not show any changes in higher time frames - I suppose this is not on purpose but just a human error (we just change the Time but forget easily the Stoch because it would be not confortable ;-)
MJ
What brings you to this conclusion MJ I can't find one post where Spuds tells us to change any settings - Have you heard this from the man himself?
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,032
  • Dec 1, 2008 2:04am Dec 1, 2008 2:04am
hi cindy
is it a good entry this one ??
can u please give me the chat room address , i lost it .
thanks
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  • #1,033
  • Edited 2:56am Dec 1, 2008 2:08am | Edited 2:56am
Quoting CindyXXXX
What brings you to this conclusion MJ I can't find one post where Spuds tells us to change any settings - Have you heard this from the man himself?
No, not heard anything else than you ;-)

I just understood it always like that: All settings are (14,3,3) except the one Stoch which crosses the Higher Stoch.

As we apply the same rules to higher TT groups - well it was quite clear that we can not:

* first M5 group: Filter (14,3,3 -- M1) ,Stoch cross higher one (14,1,1 -- M5)

* second M15 group: Filter (14,1,1 -- M5) ,Stoch cross higher one (14,3,3 -- M15)

* third M30 group: Filter (14,3,3 -- M15) ,Stoch cross higher one (14,3,3 -- M30)


Which would give us 3 times a different combination.


well I might be mistaken - but I don't think so and believe it would be a human mistake(lazyness) and not a system design.

But only Spud knows what he really meant. But Spud said somewhere you can set each to 14,3,3 but he prefers the Stoch cross higher one with 14,1,1 - because it lags less. anyway 3 times a different combination would be surely not constant - it would near random http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,034
  • Dec 1, 2008 2:09am Dec 1, 2008 2:09am
Quoting imad
hi cindy
is it a good entry this one ??
can u please give me the chat room address , i lost it .
thanks
Yes Imad thats a nice entry - The chat room address is http://www.chatzy.com/576273330576 all is welcome
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,035
  • Dec 1, 2008 2:09am Dec 1, 2008 2:09am
Quoting M_j
Do you also know that Spud does not have the Trigger set to (14,1,1)
but the Stoch wich CrossOver the Higher TimeFrame ?

CindyXXXX is right that if you look at most of Spuds pic they do not show any changes in higher time frames - I suppose this is not on purpose but just a human error (we just change the Time but forget easily the Stoch because it would be not confortable ;-)
MJ
Hope Spud can clarify this. As usual your questions always havest more infos from Spud. Good for all.
  • #1,036
  • Dec 1, 2008 2:19am Dec 1, 2008 2:19am
Quoting Harry123
Hope Spud can clarify this. As usual your questions always havest more infos from Spud. Good for all.
HAHA so true....you're like a computer MJ must be all that EA programming
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,037
  • Dec 1, 2008 2:22am Dec 1, 2008 2:22am
hi cindy


I personally think it's good without an indicator because it makes you think through whats happening and get a good feel for whats going on instead of blindly following what a bunch of flashing lights may be telling you to do

It's very easy to do without an indicator

we just have 5 catogories all worth 20% each

1 - Price line -
2 - Origon line -
3- 14,3,3 line -
4 - Filter -
5 - the cross -

Just count them on your fingers and if there are more than 3 that we dont have (60%+ risk) in the right position - red light


right but if you remember spud first trade on 3 combination than you also remember that you sit 24 hours or something like this infront of the computer if you want to trail it till the 4 hour timeframe.......

and with an indicator this would get easier because you also could set alarms or better than an indicator write an trailing ea...which give you alarms when timeframe change ...but however if no one is intrested in this than also there will not appear an indicator or wathcing ea for this.

lodol
  • #1,038
  • Dec 1, 2008 3:36am Dec 1, 2008 3:36am
Quoting lodol2
hi cindy
right but if you remember spud first trade on 3 combination than you also remember that you sit 24 hours or something like this infront of the computer if you want to trail it till the 4 hour timeframe.......

and with an indicator this would get easier because you also could set alarms or better than an indicator write an trailing ea...which give you alarms when timeframe change ...but however if no one is intrested in this than also there will not appear an indicator or wathcing ea for this.
lodol
True
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,039
  • Edited 6:36am Dec 1, 2008 3:54am | Edited 6:36am
hi Spudfyre,

I know you want us post trades - ... but

I came to the point (theroretically) where I moved a nice SHORT Trade all TF groups up. So, I just had Risk 0 on TF group M30 and moved it up to TF group H1. Risk 20 % -

and than Risk 0% - seems we need an exception here http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif (talking in a way of mechanical rules)

Can not move higher - and no point to exit with a Risk 0 isn't it. (seems the brain indicator works - or I'm really mistaken ;-)


MJ


And here I rumble again: if you don't think it would be wiser to trade on each time frame until we get 60% and than move higher.

It would be nice consistent all through the way:

SO Basically: Simply Rule: Stay on current TF-group until Risk reaches 60% or more --> re-asses immediately next higher TF-group - if Risk below 60 % move Trade up otherwise close --> when Last TF-group Risk reaches 60% or more always exit.


E.g: PERFECT Trade
* enter PERFECT Trade on TF-group M5 (Risk 0%) -- Stay on TFG M5 until we reach 60%

* Re-Asses immediately next TF-group M15: - (if we wait we might stay in a bad trade as we have already reached Risk 60% on the previous TF-group.)

TF-group M15 Risk is 20% move Trade up Stay on TFG M15 until we reach 60%


* and so on.. till we Reach the Last TFG H1 - Stay TFG H1 until we reach 60% FINAL Exit.


E.g: NOT SO PERFECT Trade
* enter NOT SO PERFECT Trade Trade on TF-group M5 -- Stay an TFG M5 until we reach 60%

* Re-Asses immediately next TF-group M15: - (if we wait we might stay in a bad trade as we have already reached Risk 60% on the previous TF-group.)

TF-group M15 Risk is 80% we can not stay on TF-group M5 (Risk60%) we can not move Trade up to TF-group M15 (Risk 80%) - only choice exit.



What do you think - I do not have the experience if there would be a difference to switching TF-groups at Risk 0.


logically I would say it should be quite the same - but your expertise is needed.

SO Basically: Simply Rule: Stay on current TF-group until Risk reaches 60% or more --> re-asses immediately next higher TF-group - if Risk below 60 % move Trade up otherwise close --> when Last TF-group Risk reaches 60% or more always exit.


MJ


my own addition for Multi-Trades rule: First TF-group M5 - may just have one Trade at the time - all others are allowed to have multiple Trades.

my own addition only for Enter Rule: at the actual time of a new Trade Entry The Stoch_Main (which is on TF-group M5 the (14,1,1 on M5 Chart) must have a min distance(maybe 30 or so) to 0 (SHORT) or 100 (LONG) (I need something to ride on don't I ;-)


 Would also eliminate what CindyXXXX asked a few post before - waiting till the next Higher TF-groups candle as finished to re-asses. and maybe mechanically staying in a trade which might go bad and we do not know yet)

Well, the only thing I see which really speaks against it is that our current Rule: TF-group M5 is special and is only used to define Entries ?? But some of your points my speak for what I suggested:

Quoting radoslaw
Hi Spudfyre,

I have a question similar to M_J's question.... if we have 0% risk on M5 do we have to change timeframe to M15? If someone is looking for some small profit with low risk isn't it better to stick to M5 and trade what it offers?
Quoting Spudfyre
YES! Of course you can. Those Brain Indicators are kicking in early and quickly. I presented to you the fundamentals of the MTFS Machine V1....any deviation of that is V2, etc. and you can tweaked and shape it all you want.

Just keep the combination rules in effect...
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,040
  • Dec 1, 2008 5:50am Dec 1, 2008 5:50am
Quoting M_j
hi CindyXXXX,

just some small things I noticed: When you switch TF - should you not adjust your Stoch also: which means the M5 Filter (14,3,3) and the M15(14,1,1)

just some hints ??

nice presentation of your trade

MJ

Hello M-j,

If you read post No 985 you will have your answer.
TTFN Merlyn
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