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Spud's Predictive MTF Stochastics

  • #1,001
  • Nov 30, 2008 8:51pm Nov 30, 2008 8:51pm
Quoting lodol2
hi ok thank for your quick answer

maybe someone can program this for us

would be a great help

because its really much to look at the same time

thanks
I personally think it's good without an indicator because it makes you think through whats happening and get a good feel for whats going on instead of blindly following what a bunch of flashing lights may be telling you to do

It's very easy to do without an indicator

we just have 5 catogories all worth 20% each

1 - Price line -
2 - Origon line -
3- 14,3,3 line -
4 - Filter -
5 - the cross -

Just count them on your fingers and if there are more than 3 that we dont have (60%+ risk) in the right position - red light
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,002
  • Nov 30, 2008 9:03pm Nov 30, 2008 9:03pm
First there was the 1/5/15m entry at 01:40 (01:35 candle)

All conditions met 0% risk...

Now switching to the 15m TF to see asses where things are at 01:45
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Time hides Nothing
  • #1,003
  • Nov 30, 2008 9:12pm Nov 30, 2008 9:12pm
At 01:45 (01:30 candle) No conditions are met for the 15m trade so the thought is to close at +5 pips

BUT... my brain indicator tells me that the trade has only been open for 5m and the 5m 14,1,1 hasn't reached (come close to) 90 yet so SL is set to BE and trade is given another 15m...
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Time hides Nothing
  • #1,004
  • Nov 30, 2008 9:20pm Nov 30, 2008 9:20pm
at 02:00 (01:45 close) we almost have a 0% risk signal on the 15m but the 5m 14,1,1 is opnly at 79% so stay on the 15m chart and wait for the next candle close
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Time hides Nothing
  • #1,005
  • Nov 30, 2008 9:24pm Nov 30, 2008 9:24pm
at 02:15 (2:00 candle) things are now giving a 0% risk signal on the 15m chart so switching to the 30m and waiting for the half hour close
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Time hides Nothing
  • #1,006
  • Nov 30, 2008 9:29pm Nov 30, 2008 9:29pm
At 02:30 (2:00 candle) we get a 20% risk signal with the only condition not met being the 15m filter so hold trade until the next half hour close and continue to ride the escalator
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Time hides Nothing
  • #1,007
  • Nov 30, 2008 9:39pm Nov 30, 2008 9:39pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
At 02:30 (2:00 candle) we get a 20% risk signal with the only condition not met being the 15m filter so hold trade until the next half hour close and continue to ride the escalator
I'm just getting to my computer and I see that I missed that entry. Oh well, I'll wait around until the next one. By the way, it seems like that trade should've worked out if you took it.
  • #1,008
  • Nov 30, 2008 9:43pm Nov 30, 2008 9:43pm
Quoting jdcompute
I'm just getting to my computer and I see that I missed that entry. Oh well, I'll wait around until the next one. By the way, it seems like that trade should've worked out if you took it.
Hi JD Yep still going not much to show between 2:30 and 3:30 just waiting for the next close...
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,009
  • Nov 30, 2008 9:45pm Nov 30, 2008 9:45pm
Quoting Spudfyre
It's been quiet here without ya
Nice to know that I'm noticeably missed. :-) I'm back in the saddle though.
  • #1,010
  • Nov 30, 2008 10:05pm Nov 30, 2008 10:05pm
So now at 04:00 our m15 filter has triggered this 30m trade in to a 0% risk continuation signal and so we switch to the 1hour chart and ride this next hour out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Time hides Nothing
  • #1,011
  • Nov 30, 2008 10:06pm Nov 30, 2008 10:06pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Hi JD Yep still going not much to show between 2:30 and 3:30 just waiting for the next close...
How much are you up? I can't enter right now..risk is 60%.. I love this new risk percentile gauge. That really puts things in perspective..like there's an 80% chance that I'll be donating my money to some guy on the other end of the table :-) Spud said it perfectly, in this we can stack the odds in our favor as opposed to gambling.
  • #1,012
  • Nov 30, 2008 10:14pm Nov 30, 2008 10:14pm
Thanks Spud for all your valuable threads and teachings -
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Spuds MTF Stochastic Combination.pdf   1.3 MB | 1,205 downloads
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,013
  • Nov 30, 2008 10:18pm Nov 30, 2008 10:18pm
Quoting jdcompute
How much are you up? I can't enter right now..risk is 60%.. I love this new risk percentile gauge. That really puts things in perspective..like there's an 80% chance that I'll be donating my money to some guy on the other end of the table :-) Spud said it perfectly, in this we can stack the odds in our favor as opposed to gambling.
Up 24 pips JD its quite funny actually cause things are certainlly consolidating and even though things haven't even picked up yet I find myself in this controlled trade. - Todays range so far is only 50 pips

For an escalator I guess its a pretty pathetic one lol but pips aside its a great example of how this works.. and yes this %risk is fantastic - It's quite genius actually
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,014
  • Nov 30, 2008 10:40pm Nov 30, 2008 10:40pm
good morning cindy
pls can you clarify how we calculate the risk% in your posts
thanks
  • #1,015
  • Nov 30, 2008 10:53pm Nov 30, 2008 10:53pm
Quoting sarah2002
good morning cindy
pls can you clarify how we calculate the risk% in your posts
thanks
Hi Sarah certainlly...

lets take the first example where we had the 1m/5m/15m signal... The risk here is calculated as 0% so immediatly change our 1m/5m/15m set up to a 5m/15m/30m set up, wait for the next 15m close and then assess the risk at that time...

How did we get a 0% calculation on the first entry?....

Think of it in 5 parts and each part is worth 20% (5x20% = 100%)

The 5 parts of our long trade:

1 - The Price line - Is it above 76.4% or below 23.6% ? In this case the Price line is below 23.6% - Our risk is still 0%

2 - The Origion line - Has it crossed above 23.6%? It has so our risk remains 0%

3 -The 15m 14,3,3 - Has it gone above 20? It has so our risk remains at 0%

4 - Has the 5m crossed the 15m in our direction? It has so our risk remains 0%

5 - Is our 1m filter where we want it to (above 80) ? It is so our risk remains at 0%

That means our total risk = 0% and we can now enter the trade and switch to the 15m - wait for the close and do the same risk assesment on the 15m

So I guess to summarise - If one of the 5 conditions above are not met then we add 20% to our risk

For example...
If 3 conditions are not met it would make our risk 60% (3x20%)

If 2 are not met our risk becomes 40% (2x20%)

Hope this helps it's a lot easier than I might have made it sound here
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,016
  • Edited 11:15pm Nov 30, 2008 11:05pm | Edited 11:15pm
So now the 1 hour candle has closed and the risk is 20% so we hold the trade.

20% risk is because the only condition of our 5 that was not met was our 30m Filter has not crossed 80%

everything else was met...

30m filter has not crossed 80% + 20%
the H1 has crossed the H4, + 0%
The Price line is below 23.6, + 0%
The 30m 14,3,3 has crossed 20, +0%
and the origion line has crossed 23.6 +0%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR7.jpg Size: 131 KB
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,017
  • Nov 30, 2008 11:29pm Nov 30, 2008 11:29pm
I hope to be jumping in on a short opportunity before too long. Seems like the price line is wanting to come up above 76.4..


Quoting CindyXXXX
So now the 1 hour candle has closed and the risk is 20% so we hold the trade.

20% risk is because the only condition of our 5 that was not met was our 30m Filter has not crossed 80%

everything else was met...

30m filter has not crossed 80% + 20%
the H1 has crossed the H4, + 0%
The Price line is below 23.6, + 0%
The 30m 14,3,3 has crossed 20, +0%
and the origion line has crossed 23.6 +0%
  • #1,018
  • Nov 30, 2008 11:36pm Nov 30, 2008 11:36pm
thanks cindy
its very clear now
nice trade and an exellent life trade
my best wishes
  • #1,019
  • Nov 30, 2008 11:49pm Nov 30, 2008 11:49pm
Quoting sarah2002
thanks cindy
its very clear now
nice trade and an exellent life trade
my best wishes
No worries Sarah I'm glad I could help
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,020
  • Dec 1, 2008 12:04am Dec 1, 2008 12:04am
Next 1 hour close at 06:00 (05:00 candle) and sticking to the 1 hour chart and hoping for the 30m to get above 80 on the next close so we can jump up another TF.

Risk is still at 20% with the 30m filter under 80% so hold trade -

(sorry just realised this is the 8th chart in this trade I've posted maybe next time I will some how fit it all into 1 smaller post)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Time hides Nothing
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