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  • #47,541
  • Edited 9:27pm Nov 29, 2008 8:50pm | Edited 9:27pm
Quoting SunTrader
You did see the chart I posted with correlation indicator in bottom graph showing how it is not correlated or inversely either, right? Correlated is very close to 1 or negatively correlated is very close to -1.

And not here or there or 1 day out of the last x number of bars.
Yes I saw your chart.
However, EURUSD and USDCHF have been of all times the most negatively correlated pairs.

I see a pretty much negatively correlated (mirror) situation in the following 1H chart.
And they just crossed each other... so maybe there will still be some uptrend for USDCHF and relative downtrend for EURUSD.

Both of them seem to behave with greater intensity when falling than when rising, this gives some differences, but one can't deny the fact that when one is rising, the other is falling. And vice versa. Doesn't have to be "to the pip" either.

In the daily chart, we can see that the behaviour has changed only from the beginning of November, where EURUSD has gone sideways while USDCHF kept climbing, but is not the usual correlative pattern as former months can testify of. However, it is interesting to point this out as to keep on the watch of a possible future change in the usual relationship of those pairs?
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  • #47,542
  • Nov 29, 2008 8:51pm Nov 29, 2008 8:51pm
Quoting SunTrader
Ok, last response for the night. My chart (down below) with EMA 250 looks a lot different than yours. Don't know why that is but with all the other EMA's on your chart, looks like 8 of them, I can't tell what is what. But are you telling me that a signal that comes along very infrequently is what you are using and therefore you plan trades to last for weeks?
Actually 7-8 weeks then TP and reverse for years.Monthly momentum established uptrend.

1.05/06 area is key level if broken then new lower low if bounce off then we should be able to break monthly wedge. Target of this uptrend is around 1.75
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  • #47,543
  • Nov 29, 2008 9:33pm Nov 29, 2008 9:33pm
Quoting 5ysfx
Actually 7-8 weeks then TP and reverse for years.Monthly momentum established uptrend.

1.05/06 area is key level if broken then new lower low if bounce off then we should be able to break monthly wedge. Target of this uptrend is around 1.75
im having trouble understanding this. You actually think usd/chf will go up another 5000pips knowing the direct correlation to eur/usd which would mean eur/usd would drop another 5000pips all the way to pretty much all time lows???? this also implies the dow for example would go down another 2000points easily from the lows this year and usd/jpy would go well below 90...im having trouble comprehending this without explaining the fundamentals behind it...when it comes to such long term views technicals is not enough
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #47,544
  • Nov 29, 2008 10:27pm Nov 29, 2008 10:27pm
Quoting psiholog
im having trouble understanding this. You actually think usd/chf will go up another 5000pips knowing the direct correlation to eur/usd which would mean eur/usd would drop another 5000pips all the way to pretty much all time lows???? this also implies the dow for example would go down another 2000points easily from the lows this year and usd/jpy would go well below 90...im having trouble comprehending this without explaining the fundamentals behind it...when it comes to such long term views technicals is not enough
IMHO
upside is limited to 1.23 for now.
downside is limited to 1.05 for now.


dont care about fundies
Fundies will adapt to the chart jk
  • #47,545
  • Nov 29, 2008 10:33pm Nov 29, 2008 10:33pm
5ysfx is trying to tell us that USD is going to be weak.. and it is time to sell it..... but that doesn't mean that EURUSD will go up.. it could.. but it depends if EUR is even weaker than USD... I agree that some fundamentals have changed this week.. with all the citigroup mess... maybe it is really time to sell USD. To me.. USD is not at all a safe investment right now... it has been cliimbing for 6 months... enough. But wait... christmas is very important for consumers... and I don't expect USD falling until christmas is done. Remember last year .. many interesting positions happened in the middle of the holidays and new year... where less people are trading. Take care.
  • #47,546
  • Nov 29, 2008 10:59pm Nov 29, 2008 10:59pm
i dont see any sudden strenght of the euro in term of thousands pips fundamentally, even the correlation with dow if still exist when looking at the DJI charts, it climbed with the decreasing volume.Well the stock market climbing while the job market is deteriorating.
Here is link of the eurozone
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/11/...iness/euro.php
"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" leonardo da vinci
  • #47,547
  • Nov 30, 2008 1:12am Nov 30, 2008 1:12am
Who was saying last week that large speculators were "net long" on Euro on COT report?

Here the charts up to 18.11.08 for EC and BP (Euro Fx and British Pound) = Big Boys were net short...

Is it possible to get last week? 18.11 is the most recent I've been able to find...

I don't know if anyone already brought this Kathy Lien's 4 pages article on COT reports, but I found it to be quite interesting:

http://www.investopedia.com/articles...ort.asp?Page=1
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  • #47,548
  • Nov 30, 2008 1:47am Nov 30, 2008 1:47am
Found the recent ones:
http://www.timingcharts.com/index.php

Now, notice how large traders have been slowly reducing their short commitment since approximatively the middle of september... however there is no extreme move and though approaching the crossing point, the majority are still on the short side, and it coincides with the evolution of the EURUSD.

What I find interesting for a change is the Dow Jones Index Composite, where we can see how the large traders have been consistently longing the Dow since August, while it was going down with greater force... quite contradictory?

If anyone can explain better what is possibly happening there, the only thing that I know is that when the large traders commitment reaches a peak and the commercials the contrary peak, it's usually a sign for a trend reversal, now I don't know how to interpret this if the evolution of the trend goes contrary to the large traders commitment...
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  • #47,549
  • Nov 30, 2008 1:55am Nov 30, 2008 1:55am
doblece im the last person to comment on fundies as we all know im highly inexperienced and a scalper by nature. I will say this though..maybe it fits into the bigger picture...you mentioned the overall positions being long in the stock market while we went lower. I think its worth noting this was all done on very low volume..in other words most of the big players have either secretly been stocking up for a longer term picture or not playing at all. Maybe this all fits into your observations

Edit:im under the impression alot of the big players migrated to commodities and currencies for some reason...this is all speculation of course
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #47,550
  • Nov 30, 2008 2:04am Nov 30, 2008 2:04am
Quoting psiholog
doblece im the last person to comment on fundies as we all know im highly inexperienced and a scalper by nature. I will say this though..maybe it fits into the bigger picture...you mentioned the overall positions being long in the stock market while we went lower. I think its worth noting this was all done on very low volume..in other words most of the big players have either secretly been stocking up for a longer term picture or not playing at all. Maybe this all fits into your observations
What I can see is that except for the DJIC, all the currencies are pretty much "flat", that is, a little up and down but no extremes. I'm no fundie either but I find this COT report an interesting tool for analysis and spotting possible strong reversals...

For example this chart on crude oil, though not having reached a top extreme, seems to be preparing a rebound? What do you all think?
Note that I am not thinking about immediate or short term, probably at the beginning of the new year, for now with near holiday season, for me market is pretty much "dead" as to volume and consistency...
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  • #47,551
  • Edited 3:11am Nov 30, 2008 2:26am | Edited 3:11am
Quoting doblece
For example this chart on crude oil, though not having reached a top extreme, seems to be preparing a rebound? What do you all think?
Note that I am not thinking about immediate or short term, probably at the beginning of the new year, for now with near holiday season, for me market is pretty much "dead" as to volume and consistency...
long term we went from 150 to 50 in 6months...less. That to me is moving from one extreme to another. The only difference is we never actually tapped 150 while we did tap 50...even went below a few dollars. This tells me that while I do expect a rebound in the next few months at any time as you also suggest (to what levels is beyond me)...short term trying to pick bottoms is pretty much anyones guess at this point as 50 has not proven itself as a strong support yet. The only thing clear right now is the opec meeting decided to not cut production which may fuel another oil selloff sunday/monday which may influence eur/usd to drop a bit as well...maybe even a gap down. Off topic...do you know if black friday results usually have an impact on anything...whether its the ny stock market session or even currencies? I dont recall from last year


Edit: rereading this revealed to me a powerful correlation which is a strong fundamental analysis. When oil prices are high consumers arent buying as we have seen which means the distributors have no choice but to raise prices to meet their profit targets as we have seen with the rise in oil related commodity stocks during the uptrend up to 147. When oil prices are low more people are buying but distributors have to increase production to meet their profit targets. This is very interesting because obviously oil demand affects the health of an economy. If people are not buying gas it means their not going out which means cinemas suffer, restaurants suffer, fast foods suffer, clothings store suffer, everyone suffers except whole sale distributors who sell things in bulk which is exactly what consumers go to buy the cheapest stuff possible to make ends meet. When oil demand increases to a point where its well beyond opecs abilities to produce they start rising prices again achieved through oil production cuts which should be one of the earliest signs of "rebound". The "interesting" part of it while it sounds and is bad...the real story here is the trucker industry. Every place that sells something relies on supplies being delivered to them and we all know what gaz guzzlers trucks are. Cargo ships for the seas. I shall add this observation to my fundies knowledge hehe.


Double Edit: i know this stuff is probably common knowledge if i had read some book or took economics classes but i have done neither so please dont laugh at me if im saying the obvious...my methods of learning is seeying things for myself.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #47,552
  • Nov 30, 2008 2:46am Nov 30, 2008 2:46am
In fact a gap down is what I am expecting.

About "Black Friday"... it usually has some impact, I donīt remember much last year as I wasnīt actively trading on that period, but the previous one - 2006 - was particularly extreme.
  • #47,553
  • Nov 30, 2008 3:22am Nov 30, 2008 3:22am
another off topic comment....if i was rich and did stocks i would heavily invest in all shipping companies stocks...drys, tbsi, exm, and so on lmao....keep those positions for at least a year
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #47,554
  • Edited 6:55am Nov 30, 2008 4:38am | Edited 6:55am
We are going to continue down, at least till we get to the bottom of this Daily Triangle. Approx. 1.2480 - 1.2450 area. Did anyone see the Daily divergence at the top of the triangle? Bearish Hidded Divergence on all three of my main pairs E/U, E/J and G/U which hasn't started to drop yet...Hint, Hint. I am currently short E/U and E/J and as soon as G/U drops below the 15 Min 89 SMA I will be short there also.

Jim
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  • #47,555
  • Nov 30, 2008 9:26am Nov 30, 2008 9:26am
read opec news this weekend...
We tested fib (arrow) and we are headed to next fib (1)
if oils prices drop again to 30 levels.... euro can drop to next fib level (2)

When all this crisis started? In year 2001. Market should correct to 2001 levels... that means parity, which is also a very well known fib (3) for eurusd. And then we will see. That's a critical fib.
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  • #47,556
  • Nov 30, 2008 10:05am Nov 30, 2008 10:05am
Quoting doblece
Yes I saw your chart.
However, EURUSD and USDCHF have been of all times the most negatively correlated pairs.

I see a pretty much negatively correlated (mirror) situation in the following.........
Well you are eyeballing it and I am using an indicator that actually calculates the two pairs and now you mention on a H1 basis so we are really comparing apples to oranges so I will leave it at.
  • #47,557
  • Edited 11:13am Nov 30, 2008 10:10am | Edited 11:13am
Quoting doblece
Yes I saw your chart.
However, EURUSD and USDCHF have been of all times the most negatively correlated pairs.
Correlation of EURUSD/USDCHF is actually called EURCHF. It would be flat or ranging all the time if the two first mentioned currencies would be correlated.
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  • #47,558
  • Nov 30, 2008 10:23am Nov 30, 2008 10:23am
Funny how most traders look for tops and bottoms. Why not just go with the flow?
  • #47,559
  • Edited 11:20am Nov 30, 2008 10:46am | Edited 11:20am
Quoting SunTrader
Well you are eyeballing it and I am using an indicator that actually calculates the two pairs and now you mention on a H1 basis so we are really comparing apples to oranges so I will leave it at.
No problem.
I am most probably wrong, anyway.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles...lationship.asp

http://fxtradeinfocenter.oanda.com/c...elations.shtml

http://forexautomaton.com/research/3...t-correlations
  • #47,560
  • Nov 30, 2008 11:36am Nov 30, 2008 11:36am
Quoting SunTrader
Well you are eyeballing it and I am using an indicator that actually calculates the two pairs and now you mention on a H1 basis so we are really comparing apples to oranges so I will leave it at.
maybe u need eye doctor ?

eur/usd and chf/usd
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