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  • #47,481
  • Nov 28, 2008 11:58am Nov 28, 2008 11:58am
Forex US session ends today in 4h 2min....



Quoting dengzhi
i know the stock markets close early today (in 10min) but how about the US forex trading session? when does it close today?
  • #47,482
  • Nov 28, 2008 12:00pm Nov 28, 2008 12:00pm
@ suntrader ... that wave count is right traded today based on that .. so looking forward to monday .. while it's always tough to tell if and when wave 4 ends ...
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #47,483
  • Nov 28, 2008 12:15pm Nov 28, 2008 12:15pm
Quoting psiholog
hmm from what ive observed a flag..in this case bear flag would need to go against the trend...so if the trend is down this flag should be moving up...but its not..so its difficult for me to make that assumption..just my 2cents...i do think 1.2825 is a very strong support and we will not break it any time soon which may lead to a clearer flag..
i want to stress how important it is to not mix bussiness with pleasure. while this friday has been profitable to me...a nice gain in a mix of scalping and going short at the tip of the second shoulder last night..the M....it could have been a much bigger gain. the reason i say this is because yesterday was thanksigiving...and such a holiday suggests i was quite drunk. either i get drunk and have fun or i work...i cannot do both. when the above post was posted i decided to close my short that i had been holding onto when i had full intentions to let it run for 250pips more. What happened next is i passed out like any drunkard does...and closed prematurely a very profitable trade. When i woke up out of frustration of being right this whole week and not benefiting from the eventual drop... i tried picking out bottoms. as doblece put it a long time ago...revenge trading. maybe it was luck maybe it was skill i do not know...i profited. anyways the point of this whole story is...do not mix bussiness with pleasure...things are guaranteed to take a bad turn eventually. I have made this mistake at least 10 times now but hey im young right...22..plenty of time to learn. Real money is not a game
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #47,484
  • Nov 28, 2008 12:18pm Nov 28, 2008 12:18pm
never even attempt to look at anything chart-related when being on some sort of drug .. hah made that mistake often enough too..
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #47,485
  • Nov 28, 2008 12:25pm Nov 28, 2008 12:25pm
Quoting psiholog
i want to stress how important it is to not mix bussiness with pleasure. while this friday has been profitable to me...a nice gain in a mix of scalping and going short at the tip of the second shoulder last night..the M....it could have been a much bigger gain. the reason i say this is because yesterday was thanksigiving...and such a holiday suggests i was quite drunk. either i get drunk and have fun or i work...i cannot do both. when the above post was posted i decided to close my short that i had been holding onto when i had full intentions to...
Yeah, the big money boys took their time keeping it in higher range while they offloaded their longs and took on shorts. But when they were ready.....
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  • #47,486
  • Nov 28, 2008 12:31pm Nov 28, 2008 12:31pm
Quoting traderathome
Yeah, the big money boys took their time keeping it in higher range while they offloaded their longs and took on shorts. But when they were ready.....
it may not be over either. while we are in a consolidation period at the moment...a bear flag (the green lines) seems to be developing with current resistance at a previous support. while any triangle can break in any direction...this does look like it has potential to continue the journey south making a new low...

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #47,487
  • Nov 28, 2008 12:34pm Nov 28, 2008 12:34pm
Quoting psiholog
i want to stress how important it is to not mix bussiness with pleasure. while this friday has been profitable to me...a nice gain in a mix of scalping and going short at the tip of the second shoulder last night..the M....it could have been a much bigger gain. the reason i say this is because yesterday was thanksigiving...and such a holiday suggests i was quite drunk. either i get drunk and have fun or i work...i cannot do both. when the above post was posted i decided to close my short that i had been holding onto when i had full intentions to...
psi, I don't like to get into people's personal lives, especially on a forum. But I think the relative anonymity of this place gives me a little liberty. We care about you here; yes, maybe somewhat selfishly because we can gain from your uncanny ability to understand forex without formal training, especially at a young age. I know I could risk being put on the ignore list, but here goes.

This is the second time I have seen you post about being drunk while trading. Although we talk about liquor here and have fun with it, it should be reserved for those times - having fun. I know you are already admitting that fault and to your credit you post it here for others to learn from (and maybe for you to learn from your own post).

However, if you don't get a hold of the problem now it could haunt you for a long time. Habits developed at a young age can stick with you your whole life if you don't master them. It's not only real money that you are dealing with - it's your life, which is even more important than money. As you know, forex is very "serious intensive" and you can't afford distractions. Many here can tell you that as you get older, you can't get away with the things you do when younger. My son is only 30 but already he can't stay up all night anymore partying, etc. because he is "older" now. Lord knows I've had my wild and crazy days too and I survived, but through moderation.

You are likely doing fine and I may be just blowing hot air; but I would rather say something than just assume.

So enough of the serious stuff. The weekend is about to begin, so now is play time. I will enjoy that extra glass of wine myself. Have a great weekend!
  • #47,488
  • Nov 28, 2008 12:38pm Nov 28, 2008 12:38pm
Quoting psiholog
...this does look like it has potential to continue the journey south making a new low...

Attachment
I was thinking that also because my rough calculations show we haven't yet moved the full length of head-top to neckline. I'm still rough at figuring that out. I get about 2570 as a target. You too?
  • #47,489
  • Nov 28, 2008 12:46pm Nov 28, 2008 12:46pm
Quoting TradeWell
I was thinking that also because my rough calculations show we haven't yet moved the full length of head-top to neckline. I'm still rough at figuring that out. I get about 2570 as a target. You too?
honestly...im done trading..i try to avoid the last few hours of friday trading as most often technicals dont apply too much...only the whipsaw. add on top of that the fact the ny session closed early...we may be rangebound for the rest of the day. i still hold a very strong bear bias though with a new low this year most likely...nothing has changed fundamentally. note that today while the stock market had gains the dollar got stronger..second time this week...breaking a pattern we have come to know so well these past few months...stock market weakness...dollar strength and vice versa.

if you take a look at that chart i drew though...note the 61.8% blue fib line...that is based on last fridays low to this weeks high...so if we break that decisively...1.2570 may only be a pit stop before the road goes south further
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #47,490
  • Nov 28, 2008 12:55pm Nov 28, 2008 12:55pm
Quoting TradeWell
I just noticed this on the weekly. The 34 SMA has now crossed the 60 SMA. So that's a confirmed trend down. Just letting you know in case anyone wasn't aware of the trend change.
lol the cross happened right near dead bottom. Time to retrace 30 - 50%
  • #47,491
  • Nov 28, 2008 12:59pm Nov 28, 2008 12:59pm
Quoting TradeWell
I was thinking that also because my rough calculations show we haven't yet moved the full length of head-top to neckline. I'm still rough at figuring that out. I get about 2570 as a target. You too?
Seems the 1H will close with a bear flag, we *may* tap 1.27 once again then head south. . .
  • #47,492
  • Nov 28, 2008 1:04pm Nov 28, 2008 1:04pm
Fair Market Making:

Since late October 2008, market makers are required to be on the bid as much as they are on the offer AND FOR LIKE AMOUNTS OF STOCK! This “fair market making” requirement is designed to prevent market makers from manipulating stock prices…….

I hope this is not a "too little, too late" regulation with already enough loopholes so as to be meaningless.....like so much that comes from the SEC. This is like the SEC and the Thieves of Wall Street had a meeting over a year ago, with the SEC saying to its friends....."Ok guys, we will put this into place AFTER you have stolen these hundreds of billions of dolloars you have in mind to steal."
  • #47,493
  • Nov 28, 2008 1:08pm Nov 28, 2008 1:08pm
Quoting big_pipin
lol the cross happened right near dead bottom. Time to retrace 30 - 50%
Since I don't have much experience I can't say that is not possible. However, my bias is short, with some variability, based on fundamentals rather than technicals (can't believe I said that). I don't expect the market to go in a straight line, but I don't see us making that kind of retracement until we hit a real bottom, which I believe is yet to come. I honestly don't have alot to back what I say, but I will continue to trade intraday so that bias won't affect my trading so much. And, btw, I agree about the cross. That really shows you how MA's are lagging - in this case seriously lagging.
  • #47,494
  • Nov 28, 2008 1:16pm Nov 28, 2008 1:16pm
Quoting traderathome
Ok guys, we will put this into place AFTER....
Isn't that how American government works?

We had commercial banks and investment banks separated since the 1930's with the Glass-Steagall Act, after the BIG fact of that era. It was repealed a decade ago, probably because there weren't enough people living from that time to remember and warn us of the danger. So we will likely bring the act back in some form - at least until 60 years from now.
  • #47,495
  • Nov 28, 2008 1:20pm Nov 28, 2008 1:20pm
My small personal victory this week has been not trading (having open positions) since Tuesday. I closed my position held and then just took my time.

I haven't had the urge to hold a position just for being in the market and it feels just fine - somewhat kind of liberated.

I admit I have a long bias but won't get in unless my trading setup is fulfilled. If it gets fulfilled I will watch it closely and know that I got in there for a reason, so I made the best effort to have some sort of edge.

If not, well than MM and volatility based stops come in play.

Anyway, I wanted to share this with you all hope it makes sense!

Have a nice weekend and good trading pips!

All the best,


B.
  • #47,496
  • Nov 28, 2008 1:21pm Nov 28, 2008 1:21pm
Moving to higher TF chart, the 4 hour now, and putting the fib extensions on the outer, standard BB, it shows this run down is a totally normal 100%'er.

And there is more potential to the downside.....to 162%, or 262% is not that big a deal. Now, 400%, that will take some serious manipulation!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 4 hour #1 on 11-28-2008.gif Size: 44 KB
  • #47,497
  • Nov 28, 2008 1:31pm Nov 28, 2008 1:31pm
Quoting BGrigore
I admit I have a long bias

B.
out of curiosity..why the long bias?..your opinion like everyone elses is much respected
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #47,498
  • Nov 28, 2008 1:44pm Nov 28, 2008 1:44pm
Quoting traderathome
Moving to higher TF chart, the 4 hour now, and putting the fib extensions on the outer, standard BB, it shows this run down is a totally normal 100%'er.

And there is more potential to the downside.....to 162%, or 262% is not that big a deal. Now, 400%, that will take some serious manipulation!
It looks like 162% would put us right on the trendline that began from the Oct 28 low.
  • #47,499
  • Nov 28, 2008 1:46pm Nov 28, 2008 1:46pm
Quoting psiholog
on a larger timeframe then my previous post ...h&s is something i mentioned quite a bit this week. a traditional h&s has a clear right and left shoulder. This is clearly not the case. Because of the break in action given due to thanksgiving though...i am willing to overlook the fact that the right shoulder is a double...as long as the neckline for this whole movement does indeed get broken. In other words...if we break 1.2800 ...i still think well see a nice 250pip fall at least

keep in mind...ONLY if we break 1.2800

Attachment
nice call and of course the move I've been waiting for all week happens when i am not at the computer.. I guess i'll have to start setting alerts or text alerts to my cell or something.. Was a pretty big down but probably not over yet.. the martket is still going up and EU STILL dropped so the correlation is looks to be pretty broken and confirmed.. imagine the drop when the DOW drops as well.. I need to do some analysys now on my charts to figure out the next stop.. i have a longer term fib at 1.2671 that seemed to stop the last run down from the other long term fib i had at the start of the drop at 1.2881.. i guess thats my quick answer.. If we break below 1.2671 then next stop down is 1.2333.

Now time to dig deeper.. and look for patterns etc I'm sure psi has found some more Was watching the same head and shoulder pattern all week as well (for 2-3 days to be exact)
  • #47,500
  • Nov 28, 2008 2:04pm Nov 28, 2008 2:04pm
Quoting Dansnali

Now time to dig deeper.. and look for patterns etc I'm sure psi has found some more Was watching the same head and shoulder pattern all week as well (for 2-3 days to be exact)
nothing concrete. just exploring the different possibilities on the daily chart observing the longer term trend. the only conclusion so far is we are rangebound between the 1.2400 area and 1.3340 for some time to come...how things develop on an intraday basis from here...waiting for sunday market open before analyzing pa carefully

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