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Spud's Predictive MTF Stochastics

  • #921
  • Nov 27, 2008 4:13am Nov 27, 2008 4:13am
Quoting M_j
hi skyline,

good seeing you again - any process in programming it???

Well, eve with only implementing the M1 Filter it get's already a bit more complicated as one has to keep track of all conditions after a successful EntryCross signal.

Well - my current state is this:

1. at the moment I do not bother with exits - want first the 'perfect' entry http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif

2. Otherwise I implemented already the most important things.[indent]Combination 1 - Crossovers
PLUS
Combination 2...
Hi MJ,
nice to see you again too
No I'm not planning to automatize this system, I prefer to trade it manually to refine my understanding of this system.
Btw I guess with some work it could be possible to code a 'perfect' entry signal, at least using mql language.

Cheers,
Skyline
  • #922
  • Nov 27, 2008 4:20am Nov 27, 2008 4:20am
I honestly don't understand why you would wanna make an EA for this it's great and simple enough trading manually anyway.

All I do (automated wise) is set an alarm so I know when the price line as well as the origion line both hit an extreme and it sends me a text message to my phone.
Time hides Nothing
  • #923
  • Nov 27, 2008 4:28am Nov 27, 2008 4:28am
Quoting CindyXXXX
I honestly don't understand why you would wanna make an EA for this it's great and simple enough trading manually anyway.

All I do (automated wise) is set an alarm so I know when the 100,3,3 (price line) is at the extremes as well as the 14,3,3 (origion line) and it sends me a text message to my phone.
What I guess is that MJ like many other fellow trader (including me), has still a daily job and cannot follow the market continuously.

Personally after have coded so much EA during these past years I'm not anymore an EA fan and I have still to see an EA that is profitable after 1 year live trading (just look at past winners in the metaquotes EA championship they fail miserable after few trading months after championship was ended).

Maybe some large hedge fund with a lot of programmer/researcher are making tons of money trading automated trading system and of course you'll not find those sophisticated algorithm over this or other forex forum.
What I do now is to use my ability to code to help me not substitute me in trading (like setting alarm , trail my trail automatically), this is why I code this tiny indicators more than EA now.
  • #924
  • Nov 27, 2008 4:31am Nov 27, 2008 4:31am
Quoting skyline
..
No I'm not planning to automatize this system, I prefer to trade it manually to refine my understanding of this system.

Cheers,
Skyline
what a shame - even though the intention is honourable http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Anyway - what we could do - tell me which Pair you follow and I set up a bot like that. than we just cross check your manual entries with that from my bot - ( I write quite full log infos at the moment too)

So you might see where you went wrong or late and I might see what bugs are in my system http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon4.gif

would be fun -- CHALLENGE Man against Machine !!!


I do not expect you to stay up 24 hours - just compair what you got and what I got.


I have to say that my overall system is not 100% stable at the moment as I finished rewrite about 80 % of it just a few weeks ago. Complete new outlay and logic - with much improved execution speed. I also do not enable my auto-restarter when Price feed fail or connection fails - to track new bugs in a better way. ... well this are the shortcommings of my system at the moment.

So anyone ready for an educational:
CHALLENGE Man/Woman against Machine for finding the perfect EntrySignal


Just let me know which pair we use!

For Fun and learning

MJ


ps: if you use a other brocker than OANDA - our price feeds (and spreads) might slightly differ - but never mind.
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #925
  • Nov 27, 2008 4:39am Nov 27, 2008 4:39am
(thats me punching your bot)
Time hides Nothing
  • #926
  • Nov 27, 2008 4:48am Nov 27, 2008 4:48am
Quoting M_j
what a shame - even though the intention is honourable http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Anyway - what we could do - tell me which Pair you follow and I set up a bot like that. than we just cross check your manual entries with that from my bot - ( I write quite full log infos at the moment too)

So you might see where you went wrong or late and I might see what bugs are in my system http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon4.gif

would be fun -- CHALLENGE Man against Machine !!!


I do not expect...
eheh MJ thank but I have to decline your invite , mostly because it would mess the whole thread. However it could be a good idea to open a new thread related to automatization of mtf stochastics.

Cheers,
Skyline
  • #927
  • Nov 27, 2008 4:50am Nov 27, 2008 4:50am
Quoting CindyXXXX
I honestly don't understand why you would wanna make an EA for this it's great and simple enough trading manually anyway.

.
hi CindyXXXX,

I fully agree with you that his it's great and simple enough trading manually anyway.

I also do not have any more a daily job.

But I don't think that just because a presented system is simple (in fact I think Spud just succeed to present a more complicated system in a very nice and simplified way)it is not worthy to automatize it.


I can tell you why I do it:

1. watching charts a long time might be very good for further learning and understanding - but in the end most people trade to make a money (for me the learning and understanding is not the end but a means to the end)

2. I actually learn quite a bit when starting to debug the mistakes of my system afterwards http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

3. I believe there are not too many 'near perfect entries' - in each pair.
so being able to track as many pairs as wanted at the same time will increase this potentially.

4. having traded already for a couple of years - I do not always love to hang my eyes to charts all day long.


well this are some of my reasons why I like automatic systems - but as skyline said - there are also missing parts which just a - brain indicator can do.


what I like most on Spud's system is really how he is gifted to present it - that was the reason it caught my attention.


Well - I think each one should try to find a own way

Good trading to you too CindyXXXX no bunching any more ;-)

MJ
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #928
  • Nov 27, 2008 4:53am Nov 27, 2008 4:53am
Quoting skyline
eheh MJ thank but I have to decline your invite , mostly because it would mess the whole thread. However it could be a good idea to open a new thread related to automatization of mtf stochastics.

Cheers,
Skyline
MJ it wouldnt be too hard to let your EA run for without watching the results and you trade manually at the same time on demo or something to comare your own results - Just an idea
Time hides Nothing
  • #929
  • Nov 27, 2008 4:56am Nov 27, 2008 4:56am
Quoting skyline
eheh MJ thank but I have to decline your invite , mostly because it would mess the whole thread. However it could be a good idea to open a new thread related to automatization of mtf stochastics.

Cheers,
Skyline
well - do not indent to mess up Spud's thread. But we could open a new one just with short explanations of 'our perfect' entries - no programming discussion (not sure anyway if there are many who want that)
just our perfect entries with short explanation.

this could be thought of as additional graphic description of Spud's method.

Hey and when Spudfre writes his book: "MTF Stochastic Unleashed ! " he is very kindly permitted to use our perfect entries as illustration.

MJ
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #930
  • Nov 27, 2008 5:26am Nov 27, 2008 5:26am
find attached: Spud_sPMTFStochasticsCombinedCrossTrading_v1.pdf
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Spud_sPMTFStochasticsCombinedCrossTrading_v1.pdf   892 KB | 1,258 downloads
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #931
  • Nov 27, 2008 7:04am Nov 27, 2008 7:04am
I think instead of an EA which I think is way to complicated, that an indicator is a far better endeavor.

I think merely an information bar for each time frame group would be the easiest for:

M5/M15 Cross M1 Filter M5 Price Chart
M15/M30 Cross M5 Filter M15 Price Chart
M30/H1 Cross M15 Filter M30 Price Chart
H1/H4 Cross M30 Filter H1 Price Chart

Simply group and show the stochastic levels for each including Price Line and Origin Line

Nice features might be to create a list of true/false lights for:
Trade direction (based on Origin line and Price Line)
Crossover
Mx Cross (below 80 or above 23.6 depending on trade direction)
Filter Cross (below 23.6 or above 76.4 based on trade direction)
Origin Cross (below 76.4 or above 23.6 based on trade direction)
Price Line Cross (below 76.4 or above 23.6)

Start with a light on M5 Price Chart and when all conditions are true the light moves to M15 Price chart and so on..so we know what we are trading.

I'm probably missing a few items but that's a good start

Technically we only need to worry at each time frame the group of stochastics we use...until we switch time frames. As such I think coding based on those groups would be easiest rather than trying to group it all together...but group each individual time frame group together.
  • #932
  • Nov 27, 2008 2:04pm Nov 27, 2008 2:04pm
Quoting Spudfyre
This trade starts at EST +7 Chart time 23:20 November 25th.

At Point 2, our M1 filter finally hit below 23.6% and so we enter short. The Price chart is M5, the stochastic to the right is M5, further right is M15 and the chart at the bottom is the M1.

Spudfyre - I was looking once more at your charts - and have a question about your Filter Entry and M5 and Origin Line direction.

We got a proper EntrySignal and then At Point 2, our M1 filter finally hit below 23.6%. At this time it seems that the M5 is pointing upward - would you consider that not as a warning ?

(M5 and Origin Line must be pointed down)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: PIC0005a.gif Size: 67 KB
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #933
  • Nov 27, 2008 3:59pm Nov 27, 2008 3:59pm
Quoting M_j
Spudfyre - I was looking once more at your charts - and have a question about your Filter Entry and M5 and Origin Line direction.

We got a proper EntrySignal and then At Point 2, our M1 filter finally hit below 23.6%. At this time it seems that the M5 is pointing upward - would you consider that not as a warning ?

(M5 and Origin Line must be pointed down)
The requirement for M5 pointing down has been replaced by the M1 filter...we are entering on the M1 filter and not relying on which way M5 is pointed. Albiet, you could wait for M5 to point down ...this would certainly be more ammunition for the short entry. Having said that we have to expect that with M1 down low we will see bumps in the price against us...if M1 rises. The point of the M1 filter is to help us not get caught in an overmarket.

The only time I would stick to the M5 pointed down is if the filter and crossover occur at the same time.

Let's put it another way...we may have an M1 filter signal and M5 may be pointed up. We've already had the crossover so our more significant entry signal is that M5 stays below M15. We are in an overbought market and because M5 draws up shouldn't concern us too much unless it starts to go into the overbought market again and crosses up over M15. Then we are out and back to a no trade until we get our signal again.

You'll find the M1 filter weed out so many bad trades given our crossover and price/origin line positions that it is the position of M1/M5 and M15 relative to each other that counts more now. If you remove the M1 filter to try and obtain say an earlier entry, then you need M5 pointed down on entry.
  • #934
  • Nov 27, 2008 4:34pm Nov 27, 2008 4:34pm
Hello spudfyre

genius work here thanks

i looked at the charts.

I think its also important to not get to many false signals for entry is how to define more concrete how long you can stay in the trade.

the exemple you gave on combnation 3 was a perfekt trade because all stochastics were in the overbought area.

So how important it is when i switch time frame lets say from 1,5,15
to 5,15,30 where the origin and price line are? for instance if suddenly on the m30 chart the price line is around 50 and the origin has not crossed in our direction of favor.? how i decide then if i should stay in the trade or not?
i saw that the cross of 14.3.3.(M5/M15 or M15/M30) often change direction......

i hope i get not too confusing with this question

thank you for your astonishing work here

regards

lodol
  • #935
  • Nov 27, 2008 6:29pm Nov 27, 2008 6:29pm
Quoting lodol2
Hello spudfyre

genius work here thanks

i looked at the charts.

I think its also important to not get to many false signals for entry is how to define more concrete how long you can stay in the trade.

the exemple you gave on combnation 3 was a perfekt trade because all stochastics were in the overbought area.

So how important it is when i switch time frame lets say from 1,5,15
to 5,15,30 where the origin and price line are? for instance if suddenly on the m30 chart the price line is around 50 and the origin has not crossed in our direction...
I will address exits, money management and stop losses shortly. I have provided some exit startegies to work with, however I want to finish the entry part first.
  • #936
  • Nov 27, 2008 7:30pm Nov 27, 2008 7:30pm
hello spud

thanks for quick answer

because i thought the whole combination 3 was about how long can i stay in a trade................

ok thanks for your work again

maybe you really write a book one day

regards lodol
  • #937
  • Nov 27, 2008 8:41pm Nov 27, 2008 8:41pm
Quoting lodol2
hello spud
thanks for quick answer
because i thought the whole combination 3 was about how long can i stay in a trade................
ok thanks for your work again
maybe you really write a book one day
regards lodol
I think the whole Combination 3 was about entries and when things go right - I guess next is knowing what to do when things don't quite go to plan.
Time hides Nothing
  • #938
  • Nov 27, 2008 11:00pm Nov 27, 2008 11:00pm
We are edging closer to the revealing of our Ultimate MTF Stochastic Chart.
I'm going to diagram the entire November 27th trading day using the combination rules. I think you will see that when we put the pieces of the puzzle together the entire trade is before us.

The chart below is our first entry opportunity on Nov 27th (EST +7). The left side is our M1/M5/M15 combo....I'm going to call this the M5 Trade, the right side shaded is the M5/M15/M30 combo...I'm going to call this the M15 Trade. Do you see where we are at?
Our M5 Trade is a typical short trade setup to enter.
Our M15 trade is at nowhere.
Our expectation is that to trade this short the M5 Trade will move the Origin Line (14,3,3 Stochastic) down. This should logically then move the Origin Line on the M15 down. Ths is the only way our trade can be a success. It also means that the Price Line should move down on both the M5 and M15 Trade.
In order to build an escalator, it will need to be an escalator up, so the M5 Trade will have to move down, go oversold and draw the price way down to move the Price on the M15 Trade back below 23.6%.
If the M15 is to move up, the M5 Trade will simply reverse into the overbought market and we are out.
Obviously this trade has a high risk of being a false entry. The risk would be much lower if the M15 Trade Price Line was below 23.6%.
Unless things really move in the price line on the way down we know this is going to be a short fast trade...no escalator down here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: PIC0006a.gif Size: 63 KB
  • #939
  • Nov 27, 2008 11:22pm Nov 27, 2008 11:22pm
Here is the trade a mere 10 minutes later and it is time to exit. We are up about 12 PIPs. So how do we know to exit?
So, we already completed the M5 Trade because we met all the rules of the Combination 1 & 2 when we entered. So at the next thing we are looking for on the M15 Trade chart is:
M15/M30 crossover (YES M15 crossed M30 down)
The Price Line above 76.4% (NO)
The Origin Line crossing below 76.4 % (NO)
The M15 Stoch crossing below 80% (NO)
M5 Filter (NO)

In otherwords we are not close to a short entry here, so we exit. Why here? This is the next M15 update and there is no possibility that we will meet our short entry on the M15 Trade anytime soon.

Here's some more clues on the M15 Trade. In order for the M15 Stoch to cross below 80 it will have to recross the M30 stoch upwards....that is not a short entry signal. In order for the Origin Line to cross below 76.4% it must rise first above 76.4%...again not a short entry signal. For the Price Line to fall straight below 23.6% we will not satisfy our short entry rules. So exit already!

There is one thing to notice here back to our original M5 Trade short entry. USE ONLY THE M15 TRADE TO DETERMINE RISK OF THE M5 ENTRY. In otherwords..trade the M5 Trade because we do have a short signal. Don't ignore the M5 Trade because of the M15 position because the M15 Trade Price Line could have plummeted on the M5 entry to below 23.6% and yes the M15 Trade Origin Line could have popped over 76.4%. In that circumstance we'd have a great upcoming short and make some nice PIPs.

Ah well, here we made 12 Pips and we wait for the next trade, there is nothing happening with M15 that will support our short entry continuing. (In fact it only had 6 PIPS left to go down if we kept following the price.)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: PIC0006b.gif Size: 63 KB
  • #940
  • Nov 27, 2008 11:24pm Nov 27, 2008 11:24pm
Since the Americans are on holiday, I'll be posting slowly the remainder of the Nov 27th trades over the next 3 days. I need to run out and enjoy some of this Canadian winter and take a break from trading
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