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  • #47,321
  • Nov 27, 2008 8:49am Nov 27, 2008 8:49am
I adjusted the top of my channel because of the DPP to .2928. It is now a 52 pip channel. See Below.

Jim

Quoting hard1head1
Its called a Holiday. Nice channel though. Made 72 on the way down and now I am up 28 on the buy. Until something changes I will buy at 2876 and sell at 2954.

Jim
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 50 pip channel.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #47,322
  • Nov 27, 2008 8:56am Nov 27, 2008 8:56am
Quoting 7one
Head and shoulder on 1h chart...

http://www5.picfront.org/picture/rQN...mg/2271108.gif

Euro will go down, if we see a trendlinebreak in 15 minutes on 4h cart...

http://www5.picfront.org/picture/HUf...mg/1271108.gif
Yes I've been watching that one.
  • #47,323
  • Nov 27, 2008 9:02am Nov 27, 2008 9:02am
Its a nice one, but with Thanksgiving, I don't believe we are going to get a push to break what needs to be broken, and that is the 2800 support. Just aint gonna get the volume to do it.

Jim
Quoting 7one
Head and shoulder on 1h chart...

http://www5.picfront.org/picture/rQN...mg/2271108.gif

Euro will go down, if we see a trendlinebreak in 15 minutes on 4h cart...

http://www5.picfront.org/picture/HUf...mg/1271108.gif
  • #47,324
  • Nov 27, 2008 9:03am Nov 27, 2008 9:03am
Quoting hard1head1
I adjusted the top of my channel because of the DPP to .2928. It is now a 52 pip channel. See Below.

Jim
On my 1HR I see it as an ascending channel; if so, you may have to adjust your bottom and top upwards.
Attached Image
  • #47,325
  • Nov 27, 2008 9:06am Nov 27, 2008 9:06am
hi guys, this morning looks like yesterday morning except the range looks like about half what it was then... still whistling "home on the range..."

have fun.great bollinger band trading if nothing better to do. i have better to do and am going off to do it. everyone take care wherever you are...

especially all you turkeys.
FUBAR...
  • #47,326
  • Nov 27, 2008 9:20am Nov 27, 2008 9:20am
Due to the current financial crisis facing the world at the moment, the
light at the end of the tunnel will be switched off to save on electricity
costs, until further notice.

Sincerely,
GOD
  • #47,327
  • Nov 27, 2008 9:36am Nov 27, 2008 9:36am
I can see that, but there is a reason why I havent done that. Its because the DPP is in the mix. If it breaks the DPP to the high side and tests and stays there, then yes, I agree. But until that happens, I got to stick with this setup, I did move my bottom up to 2884, though.

Jim


Quoting TradeWell
On my 1HR I see it as an ascending channel; if so, you may have to adjust your bottom and top upwards.
  • #47,328
  • Nov 27, 2008 9:44am Nov 27, 2008 9:44am
Some nasty words out of Trichett and we could see some Dollar gains.
  • #47,329
  • Nov 27, 2008 10:07am Nov 27, 2008 10:07am
One thing we can not ignore, is this 4 Hr Triangle. Your Head and Shoulders can be seen here also with the support at 2800 neckline.

jim
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 4 hr.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 4 hr1.gif Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 4 hr2.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #47,330
  • Nov 27, 2008 10:10am Nov 27, 2008 10:10am
Didnt see the tweezers here, guys. That H & S may follow through after all.

Jim
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 4 hr2.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #47,331
  • Nov 27, 2008 10:30am Nov 27, 2008 10:30am
Quoting ak4x
hi guys, this morning looks like yesterday morning except the range looks like about half what it was then... still whistling "home on the range..."

have fun.great bollinger band trading if nothing better to do. i have better to do and am going off to do it. everyone take care wherever you are...

especially all you turkeys.
Who you calling turkey - turkey.



Well I guess I will be stuffed in a couple of hours.

Happy, happy all.
  • #47,332
  • Edited 10:45am Nov 27, 2008 10:30am | Edited 10:45am
finally the right shoulder is nearing completion...i underestimated the power of the ranging market on this holiday. In my relatively small forex experience compared to the history of the markets I have seen many holidays where market makers took advantage of the light volume to push things 200pips at a time just because they can. This holiday is different

Anyways...technically...we finally broke the 61.8% retracement support for this most recent upmove...1.2818-1.2968. Now we should see full retracement to 1.2818 followed by a rangy market for a while between 1.2800 and 1.2875(the 61.8% which was strong support and now should be resistance). After that..when 1.2800 gives in (1.2800 being the psychological neckline of this h&s)...here comes 1.2450 area...possibly before market close tommorow. Careful with false spikes out. My strategy is...only sell at the peaks and avoid picking bottoms as i feel sentiment is bearish. only 130pips locked in (mostly while i slept on a limit order off 1.2950) but hey...its thanksgiving..better then nothing right. Good pippin all and happy thanksgiving to those who celebrate it

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: current.gif Size: 40 KB


sidenote: looking at pa again...even that 1.2818 may take the whole day to get reached...hah

another sidenote: i left out what i define as peaks in my scalper strategy for selling. note the red line...each tap =sell..once its broken by even a few pips...its not a peak anymore and my strategy will be reevaluated
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #47,333
  • Nov 27, 2008 11:10am Nov 27, 2008 11:10am
Quoting SunTrader

Well I guess I will be stuffed in a couple of hours.

.
  • #47,334
  • Nov 27, 2008 11:15am Nov 27, 2008 11:15am
Quoting TradeWell
On my 1HR I see it as an ascending channel; if so, you may have to adjust your bottom and top upwards.
This ascending channel now appears to have become a descending channel.
Attached Image
  • #47,335
  • Nov 27, 2008 11:24am Nov 27, 2008 11:24am
Quoting hard1head1
Didnt see the tweezers here, guys. That H & S may follow through after all.

Jim
Targets 1.2700 area
  • #47,336
  • Nov 27, 2008 11:31am Nov 27, 2008 11:31am
Quoting psiholog
finally the right shoulder is nearing completion...i underestimated the power of the ranging market on this holiday. In my relatively small forex experience compared to the history of the markets I have seen many holidays where market makers took advantage of the light volume to push things 200pips at a time just because they can. This holiday is different

Anyways...technically...we finally broke the 61.8% retracement support for this most recent upmove...1.2818-1.2968. Now we should see full retracement to 1.2818 followed by a rangy market...


Nice!

Before reading your post I had put a buy order at 1.2849 TP1.2820. So we're thinking alike.

If it breaks the 1.2800 neckline, I'm a bear, but isn't 1.2450 too large? I'm still not sure if this is the start of an uptrend.

This holiday ain't helping. Looks like the market is sleeping..

Cheers!
Chasing Livermore...
  • #47,337
  • Nov 27, 2008 11:38am Nov 27, 2008 11:38am
Quoting osyrius
Nice!

Before reading your post I had put a buy order at 1.2849 TP1.2820. So we're thinking alike.

If it breaks the 1.2800 neckline, I'm a bear, but isn't 1.2450 too large? I'm still not sure if this is the start of an uptrend.

This holiday ain't helping. Looks like the market is sleeping..

Cheers!
If this pattern truly develops into a head and shoulder (like you said ONLY confirmed by a break of the neckline..until then its all speculation)...h&s rules say the average move down after a break of the neckline is equal to the distance from the tip of the head to the neckline. Since the tip is at 1.3080 and the neckline is 1.2800/20...thats at least 350 pips potential to the downside. 800-350=450. Again...like you said...only confirmed by a break of the neckline which we may or may not see

Edit: lmao!!!!!...wow im so bad at math my apologies..i just realized its 250-280 pip potential which puts us at 1.25 or so again...OOPS
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #47,338
  • Nov 27, 2008 12:24pm Nov 27, 2008 12:24pm
Quoting psiholog
If this pattern truly develops into a head and shoulder (like you said ONLY confirmed by a break of the neckline..until then its all speculation)...h&s rules say the average move down after a break of the neckline is equal to the distance from the tip of the head to the neckline. Since the tip is at 1.3080 and the neckline is 1.2800/20...thats at least 350 pips potential to the downside. 800-350=450. Again...like you said...only confirmed by a break of the neckline which we may or may not see

Edit: lmao!!!!!...wow im so bad at math my apologies..i...

psiholog,

€$ broker the 5m TF.
It's back already, but dancing around it.

Have you changed in any way your strategy?

Cheers!
Chasing Livermore...
  • #47,339
  • Nov 27, 2008 12:38pm Nov 27, 2008 12:38pm
Quoting osyrius
psiholog,

€$ broker the 5m TF.
It's back already, but dancing around it.

Have you changed in any way your strategy?

Cheers!
na...im just not scalping anymore since that downtrend wall was broken...im just holding to whats left of my position from 1.2950. since h&s seems to be the theme this week...i see a mini one on 5min chart with neckline at 1.2875 and shoulders at 1.2935...further confirming my bear bias. fibs is useful too..while 61.8% still acts as strong support...we cant even get past 50% to the upside anymore...theres no doubt in my mind we will reach 1.2818 sometimetoday....if im wrong...slap psiholog your cocky again and take a break and eat some turkey legs

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: current.gif Size: 38 KB
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #47,340
  • Nov 27, 2008 12:40pm Nov 27, 2008 12:40pm
I would confirm the beginning of a new uptrend with a return to 1.26 area and a bounce of resistance, 1.25 area and bounce off triple bottom trendline, or an upwards breakout of of the current triangle/h&s

My best guess is bounce off of 1.26 if the h&s breaks down
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