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  • #47,181
  • Nov 26, 2008 9:07am Nov 26, 2008 9:07am
not just yet, we gotta listen to Obama now!
If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
  • #47,182
  • Nov 26, 2008 9:09am Nov 26, 2008 9:09am
Quoting Dansnali
Dow is up 100 points in the past 20 mins or so..

maybe someone knows something we dont..

waiting for after actual release and spike.....
Remember, that is a new home sales report. Existing home sales is probably a better leading indicator. When existing home supplies start diminishing, then more new home sales should follow.
  • #47,183
  • Nov 26, 2008 9:17am Nov 26, 2008 9:17am
German Prelim CPI m/m -0.5% -0.3% -0.2% is this data will affected?
  • #47,184
  • Nov 26, 2008 9:22am Nov 26, 2008 9:22am
Quoting SimonK
not just yet, we gotta listen to Obama now!
Looks like you're right - lots of indecision now, must be waiting on what he has to say.
  • #47,185
  • Nov 26, 2008 9:22am Nov 26, 2008 9:22am
Quoting sragen_boy
German Prelim CPI m/m -0.5% -0.3% -0.2% is this data will affected?
Good question, hopefully someone knows the answer.
I need to learn more about the EURO factors, I mostly just keep in tune with the USD.
  • #47,186
  • Nov 26, 2008 10:04am Nov 26, 2008 10:04am
EU dropping and DOW is going up? different than what we have seen for a while..
  • #47,187
  • Nov 26, 2008 10:08am Nov 26, 2008 10:08am
This is why I never trade against the master trend, you never know when it'll snap back in the market to show it who's boss, and why it's safer to find a position that matches the master trend.

To me - this reaffirms the fact the dollar is still in an uptrend, posturing the E/U to drop back down to the 1.2100 area. The economic news was against the dollar, but it still gains strength? If we were indeed in a reversal, this news would have tanked the dollar - making E/U jump up, which would have gave more credence to a reversal, and even then we need to see a good resistance form on the dollar, which has yet to form. A 6 month old trend isn't going to give up quickly and I don't understand how some in here think we are in a reversal right now, there is nothing long-term to back it up. But to each his own I suppose.

I just wish I still had my shorts on. But other opportunities will come
  • #47,188
  • Nov 26, 2008 10:14am Nov 26, 2008 10:14am
I agree with you. and said the same thing about 12 hours ago when a couple people in the thread were saying its a reversal.. said same thing almost word for word.. heh.. a few days 2-3 doesn't mean a trend lasting months and quite possibly to go one a year or so.. has changed.. takes a month or more to prove a bottom and reversal

Quoting dwildes
This is why I never trade against the master trend, you never know when it'll snap back in the market to show it who's boss, and why it's safer to find a position that matches the master trend.

To me - this reaffirms the fact the dollar is still in an uptrend, posturing the E/U to drop back down to the 1.2100 area....
  • #47,189
  • Nov 26, 2008 10:14am Nov 26, 2008 10:14am
Lots of staying up and hardcore analyzing going on for something stuck in a slowly descending but slightly fluid range. Great range trading ops here tho.

Look at last night as a example. If you're only trading breakouts of hard S/R lines in this environment you'll see them everywhere... Price doesn't always break out tho, sometimes it just drifts between the guardrails until it fakes you out and eats your account up.

Price ran up at close of NY to stall at previous R levels (left edge of chart)... no news there.

Price then held there until the 5pm session open when it sort of drifted down from the central pivot (green) towards the first QP (aqua) and my first (posted) TP. As I've stated before, that opening direction from the Central usually sets my bias for asia. It eventually managed to drift down to the DP (my second posted target) and in a spurt of mania driven search for identity flopped back and forth a couple dozen pips each way between the DP and the 2957 QP.

Apparently the frankies finally poked it and managed a nice bounce off M2 at the London open (my hopeful but not convinced it would ever get there posted 3rd target) all the way back to the 3026 QP.

SHIELDS UP SCOTTY!! as the yoorow gone wild then blew back thru all supports to bounce again at the 2907 QP... and so on until we are now bouncing off S1 as I blab away.

Unfortunately, there is a rash of tough support on the 1h/4h to dig thru and i think the old girl is about tuckered out here after a night of wild and reckless partying... Breaking any of the various significant S levels however could easily paint a new picture for the day, but I would expect it to continue inline with the current bearish direction and not bounce off them looking for new breakout highs again...

I however am fresh as a morning dew kissed daisy and off to get some air, while whistling the old favorite... "Home on the Range". Pips to all.
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #47,190
  • Nov 26, 2008 10:17am Nov 26, 2008 10:17am
it moved during obamas speach.. he's got new ecomomic board in the works. new thinking is the theme
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #47,191
  • Nov 26, 2008 10:18am Nov 26, 2008 10:18am
Quoting Dansnali
I agree with you. and said the same thing about 12 hours ago when a couple people in the thread were saying its a reversal.. said same thing almost word for word.. heh.. a few days 2-3 doesn't mean a trend lasting months and quite possibly to go one a year or so.. has changed.. takes a month or more to prove a bottom and reversal
I bid you caution, we're around the 200 ema on charts all the way to 4-hr time frame now, it's been a while since the market has bent this far...the market needs to pick a clear direction at this point.

Regards.
"The markets are the greatest chess match ever played."
  • #47,192
  • Nov 26, 2008 10:23am Nov 26, 2008 10:23am
Quoting Dansnali
I agree with you. and said the same thing about 12 hours ago when a couple people in the thread were saying its a reversal.. said same thing almost word for word.. heh.. a few days 2-3 doesn't mean a trend lasting months and quite possibly to go one a year or so.. has changed.. takes a month or more to prove a bottom and reversal
People will ultimate make their own choice (as they should), all you can do is give a logical reason with real data behind it. They will choose to read it, do some research on their own and possibly learn from it, or discard it.

It doesn't affect me either way, but I do like to post my argument and sometimes you get a smart individual who actually knows a thing or 2 and can either give you a realistic counter-point, which can help you. We all make mistakes, and I could possibly be missing something. That is the advantage of these forums. However, I've yet to see anything to change my mind (no charts - they are for the actual trading, not for positioning)
  • #47,193
  • Nov 26, 2008 10:28am Nov 26, 2008 10:28am
Just noticed something I haven't seen iin a while now...

UJ climbing and EJ trying to climb, while EU/Gu dropping, and GY seems to be torn between the forces. At first glance, this could be dollar strength asserting itself with UJ being the driver here. Haven't seen that in some time as UJ was stuck between the yen pull of EJ/GY and their cousins.

Interesting to see if this plays out or not.

How do you get dollar strength after the numbers this morning? what a nutjob planet we're on.
FUBAR...
  • #47,194
  • Nov 26, 2008 10:32am Nov 26, 2008 10:32am
Quoting ak4x
Just noticed something I haven't seen iin a while now...

UJ climbing and EJ trying to climb, while EU/Gu dropping, and GY seems to be torn between the forces. At first glance, this could be dollar strength asserting itself with UJ being the driver here. Haven't seen that in some time as UJ was stuck between the yen pull of EJ/GY and their cousins.

Interesting to see if this plays out or not.

How do you get dollar strength after the numbers this morning? what a nutjob planet we're on.
I know - USD should be going down to $84. Messed up my plans for today.
  • #47,195
  • Nov 26, 2008 10:33am Nov 26, 2008 10:33am
It,s just profit taking before the holiday
we shuld here from Tiger Hunter soon
Trade less make more!
  • #47,196
  • Nov 26, 2008 10:40am Nov 26, 2008 10:40am
Quoting Tradester
I bid you caution, we're around the 200 ema on charts all the way to 4-hr time frame now, it's been a while since the market has bent this far...the market needs to pick a clear direction at this point.

Regards.
Maybe.. I do watch the 200 on all my time frames.. but we went above and now back below.. candle hasn't closed yet.. But we could continue to range a while yet. We have been consolidating for what... a couple weeks? Fairly big range we have been in but seems like no real break outs or moves quite yet.

I still think over all direction is south but would feel much more comfortable piling on shorts at about 1.32 for the medium-longer term.

I think the EU splitting off from the DOw like it has in the past couple hours shows more of a indecision.. and the EJ looks to be caught in the middle going sideways.
  • #47,197
  • Nov 26, 2008 10:46am Nov 26, 2008 10:46am
Quoting doughnut
It,s just profit taking before the holiday
we shuld here from Tiger Hunter soon
I don't hear from him (ignore list for his bigass charts and screaming font size) unless someone refers to him. So please don't quote his post.
  • #47,198
  • Nov 26, 2008 10:54am Nov 26, 2008 10:54am
Quoting SunTrader
I don't hear from him (ignore list for his bigass charts and screaming font size) unless someone refers to him. So please don't quote his post.
I here ya i was saying that cause he is anoying
Trade less make more!
  • #47,199
  • Nov 26, 2008 10:55am Nov 26, 2008 10:55am
EU breaking from corelation from equities, today, looks anything but indecisive.
  • #47,200
  • Nov 26, 2008 10:56am Nov 26, 2008 10:56am
Quoting doughnut
I here ya i was saying that cause he is anoying
Yes indeed. You would be wise to put him on ignore too.
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