Spud's Predictive MTF Stochastics | Page 45 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Spud's MTF FIB Breakout System 383 replies

MTF Stochastics 1,485 replies

MTF Stochastics into MTF Stoch Histogram 8 replies

Trading MTF STochastics Manual 13 replies

Journal related to: Spud's MTF Stochastics 178 replies

Attachments: Spud's Predictive MTF Stochastics
Exit Attachments

Spud's Predictive MTF Stochastics

  • #881
  • Nov 25, 2008 9:51pm Nov 25, 2008 9:51pm
Quoting Spudfyre
Actually the same thing. Notice on your chart the M5 and M15 are in an oversold position with the price in an oversold position. What is going to happen in the immediate is that M5 will rise first and much quicker than M15. In this case, we would wait for the M15/M30 crossover and enter when M5 is in the overbought territory.
If M1 was in your picture, we'd wait for M5/M15 to crossover and M1 to be in the overbought area to enter.
The net result is that M5,M15 and M30 would rise as diagramedby the balls.

If we had a Price Line, Origin Line....we'd...
Great explanation thanks Spud
Time hides Nothing
  • #882
  • Edited 11:51pm Nov 25, 2008 11:26pm | Edited 11:51pm
Sorry Spud just one more question...

If you get a strong signal on the PMTF Stochs like the "Combination" examples you posted above, but the rope is all messed up...

Do you ignore the entry? Or is the PMTF signal alone strong enough to ignore what the rope may or may not be doing?

Thanks

BTW - I just noticed this live example of the combination entry and filter you posted above so thought I would post it... Will post results later - this would qualify under the 2nd entry rule - Price line is pointing upwards which is a bonus
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR.JPG Size: 170 KB
Time hides Nothing
  • #883
  • Nov 26, 2008 12:03am Nov 26, 2008 12:03am
Exit when the Origion line crossed 76.3 and the 5m hit 90 would have been +19 pips -minus spread
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR2.JPG Size: 140 KB
Time hides Nothing
  • #884
  • Nov 26, 2008 12:39am Nov 26, 2008 12:39am
im following your posts spud but it takes me lots lots of time to understand all that amount of information due to my english
i understood that the combination 1 and 2 are ultimate perfect conditions for any entry in order to seek a perfect trade am i right?
i just wanted to thank you for all the amazing work in that thread and everyone who helps here to make things easier
  • #885
  • Nov 26, 2008 2:20am Nov 26, 2008 2:20am
can someone pls explain me the stop loss in a more simple way using a visual method on a chart pls
i read it more than 5 times but its not clear to me
sorrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrry guys but i really need some help here


Stop Loss:
Hit or Miss. Use high of close of entry candle or previous entry candle as Stop or add 5-20 PIPS maximum to this. Never exceed 50 Pips. Bring Stop Loss down to break even on 5-10 PIP gain, chase at 50% of gains, never exceed 20 PIPS on the chase always leave yourself profit PIPS once they exceed 10 Pips.
  • #886
  • Edited 6:45am Nov 26, 2008 3:01am | Edited 6:45am
here is a trade from the combination 1(entry2) but a buy entry
original line14 way under 23.6% as well as price line100
14 line over 100 line crossed 23.4 up
5-15m crossed up
all pointing up
but can someone clarify where the stop must be ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 40 KB
  • #887
  • Nov 26, 2008 3:20am Nov 26, 2008 3:20am
Quoting sarah2002
can someone pls explain me the stop loss in a more simple way using a visual method on a chart pls
i read it more than 5 times but its not clear to me
sorrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrry guys but i really need some help here


Stop Loss:
1) Hit or Miss. Use high of close of entry candle or previous entry candle as Stop or add 5-20 PIPS maximum to this. Never exceed 50 Pips.

2) Bring Stop Loss down to break even on 5-10 PIP gain, chase at 50% of gains, never exceed 20 PIPS on the chase always leave yourself profit PIPS once they exceed 10 Pips.
Hey Sarah -

1) Stop loss is the red horizontal line(s) on the chart below. If it's still not clear let me know

2) So the second bit he is saying put your stop loss to breakeven once you are up 10 pips... then when you are up 20 pips move your stoploss to +10 pips - once you are up 30 pips move your stop loss to +15 pips

I think tats what Spud means by 50% of gains
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR.jpg Size: 126 KB
Time hides Nothing
  • #888
  • Nov 26, 2008 4:58am Nov 26, 2008 4:58am
Sarah in the chart you posted above...

If your entry was at the open of the candle you have the arrow pointing at... Then the stop loss would be under the LOW of the candle to the left of it.

Or you can add 5 - 20 pips to that to give it some room.
Time hides Nothing
  • #889
  • Nov 26, 2008 5:07am Nov 26, 2008 5:07am
thanks a milion cindy for your help
you are really a nice and helpfull person
  • #890
  • Nov 26, 2008 5:43am Nov 26, 2008 5:43am
Quoting sarah2002
thanks a milion cindy for your help
you are really a nice and helpfull person
No problem
Time hides Nothing
  • #891
  • Nov 26, 2008 6:20am Nov 26, 2008 6:20am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Sorry Spud just one more question...

If you get a strong signal on the PMTF Stochs like the "Combination" examples you posted above, but the rope is all messed up...

Do you ignore the entry? Or is the PMTF signal alone strong enough to ignore what the rope may or may not be doing?

Thanks

BTW - I just noticed this live example of the combination entry and filter you posted above so thought I would post it... Will post results later - this would qualify under the 2nd entry rule - Price line is pointing upwards which is a bonus
In the Combinations 1 and 2, I've eliminated the rope and went with the M1 Filter (it serves the same purpose but is much easier to understand and target in a fixed black and white environment)
  • #892
  • Nov 26, 2008 6:31am Nov 26, 2008 6:31am
The entry is correct.
Depending on how you exited would determine a positive or negative outcome. In this case following the Origin Line or the Price Line through the Fib Levels would have been the best choice.

Quoting sarah2002
here is a trade from the combination 1(entry2) but a buy entry
original line14 way under 23.6% as well as price line100
14 line over 100 line crossed 76.4 up
5-15m crossed up
all pointing up
but can someone clarify where the stop must be ?
  • #893
  • Nov 26, 2008 7:49am Nov 26, 2008 7:49am
another entry long
combination1 (entry 2)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 37 KB
  • #894
  • Nov 26, 2008 7:53am Nov 26, 2008 7:53am
Saw that one too Sarah up 40 pips already nice one
Time hides Nothing
  • #895
  • Nov 26, 2008 8:32am Nov 26, 2008 8:32am
Ok heres a question for ya spud.

what do you think about an "Escalator of Combos", where once we are in a trade, we look at the next timeframe up using the same rules.

For example, we get a setup that satisfies our entry rules and while we are in the trade, then we get a price/orgin cross on the 15m chart, an M15/M30 crossover and 5 is in overmarket, so we stay in the trade and ride the escalator. Then after that we look at the 30m chart, same rules except M30/1h crossover, m15 in overmarket.

Does ths make any sense to do it this way? Or do you think we are better to get in and out of trades and just keep nailing the M5 chart every time it sets up, and minimize drawdown by doing so?
Just focus on the pips. The rest is insignificant.
  • #896
  • Nov 26, 2008 9:30am Nov 26, 2008 9:30am
hi Spudfyre,

very nice indeed - instead of the ropes: Combination 1 Crossovers with Combination 2 Filter.


QUESTIONS:


1. would you apply such a filter also to your 3rd Enter setup:

SHORT:

Quoting Spudfyre
3. Price Line is below 23.6%. Origin Line was above 76.4% and has moved down across the 76.4% level. M5 must have crossed down below M15. M5 is below 80%. M5 and Origin Line must be pointed down, M15 and Price Line can be pointed in any direction, but better if either or both are pointed down as well.
or only when the Price Line is above 76.4%

2.
Quoting Spudfyre
..
We must remember that when we finally get the M1 signal that our M5 must still be below our M15 and that the M5 never crossed the M15 upwards.
....
What about the other conditions: for instance the Price Line was above 76.4% when we got the EntrySignal - but until our M1 filter allows us to enter the trade the Price Line has move below 76.4% (or below and back up again) would you disqualify such trade entry?


Anyway thanks a lot - through the Filter some of my previous questions are already answered.

MJ
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #897
  • Nov 26, 2008 9:30am Nov 26, 2008 9:30am
Quoting ayaz
Ok heres a question for ya spud.

what do you think about an "Escalator of Combos", where once we are in a trade, we look at the next timeframe up using the same rules.

For example, we get a setup that satisfies our entry rules and while we are in the trade, then we get a price/orgin cross on the 15m chart, an M15/M30 crossover and 5 is in overmarket, so we stay in the trade and ride the escalator. Then after that we look at the 30m chart, same rules except M30/1h crossover, m15 in overmarket.

Does ths make any sense to do it this way?...

You are so in the zone! That's is very close to where we are headed with Combination 3, in using the MTF (Escalator) to stay in the trend and to find exits using the same rules as we move up the time frames. Well done
Some minor tweaks to know where we are and whether to continue or exit, but overall you are right on the PIPing.
  • #898
  • Nov 26, 2008 9:49am Nov 26, 2008 9:49am
Quoting M_j
hi Spudfyre,

very nice indeed - instead of the ropes: Combination 1 Crossovers with Combination 2 Filter.


QUESTIONS:



1. would you apply such a filter also to your 3rd Enter setup:

SHORT:




or only when the Price Line is above 76.4%


2.

What about the other conditions: for instance the Price Line was above 76.4% when we got the EntrySignal - but until our M1 filter allows us to enter the trade the Price Line has move below 76.4% (or below and back up again) would you disqualify such trade...
Answer to 1: Yes. Remember in a short trade we want to take advantage of M1 being in the oversold area to make sure we increase our odds of not getting stuck in an overbought market when we enter a short trade. Price can move up to the Origin Line and that of course would kill our trade. This will only happen if we are in an overbought market. The M1 Filter substantially reduces our risk of false entries or getting into a trade too early. Aslo, we are not relying only on M1, our M5 and M15 positions are telling us something and using the cross of M5/M15 and that M5 remains below M15 (in the short) will usually keep us safe. Typically if M5 reverses and goes back up to an overbought market it will recross M15 and kill the trade...for good reason.

Answer 2: Here we need our Brain Indicator. The question is do you want to risk that entry or wait for the better entry? Taking such an entry can be both risky and fruitful, it just a much higher risk of failure. I think you'll have a better answer when Combination 3 comes out in using the other time frames. But simply recognize that such a trade isn't necessarily bad, it just carries more risk of failing from the start. There are a host of "options" but for now I am keeping this to a "on"/"off" trade format and trying to narrow us to specific entries and exit rules. Once we get this established and played with it a bit, you can decide if you want to bother (or if it is even worth while) with the riskier options or not. Bottom line is, the more textbook our entry the better off we are.
  • #899
  • Nov 26, 2008 10:26am Nov 26, 2008 10:26am
Thanks - waiting eagerly for Combination 3.
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #900
  • Nov 26, 2008 10:39am Nov 26, 2008 10:39am
Quoting M_j
Thanks - waiting eagerly for Combination 3.
Same here loving these combination posts I bet I'm not the only one
Time hides Nothing
0 traders viewing now