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  • #47,001
  • Nov 25, 2008 12:52pm Nov 25, 2008 12:52pm
Quoting psiholog
that is a most disturbing picture indeed that i see. the flag that was mentioned is of great importance now as it could push this pair up for another 100 pips...even though a break to the downside is more likely. in any case im sticking to my position..the 25% thats left of it anyways and reloading short in the 1.3100 if strong resistance is noticed (1.3100 is where the upper wall of the current uptrend is). careful pippin all or dont pip at all

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That triangle has morphed.
  • #47,002
  • Nov 25, 2008 12:54pm Nov 25, 2008 12:54pm
Quoting TradeWell
So then, what IS the definition of scalping? I have seen it defined as "quick" trades, varying from minutes to seconds; or, as trading the spread, to make the difference between bid and ask. It sounds like it can be quite subjective. How do traders define it?
welll all you say is correct... I think scalping is everything trading between 1 pip and 10 pips profit. But with this volatility it can be from 10 to 50. LOL
  • #47,003
  • Nov 25, 2008 12:57pm Nov 25, 2008 12:57pm

I did scalping for many years, but believe me this thing can you do for a maximum of 4-5 years.
I personally believe that the evolution of a trader , over the years, is to pass to trade positions .
At the beginning my charts were 1-5-15 min.
Today depart and arrive from 15 to monthly.

By the time I realized that I had become too stressful and also made me lose sight of the important things I started many years ago to change my mind.
It's a normal evolution.

The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #47,004
  • Nov 25, 2008 1:01pm Nov 25, 2008 1:01pm
Quoting Driver55

I did scalping for many years, but believe me this thing can you do for a maximum of 4-5 years.
I personally believe that the evolution of a trader , over the years, is to pass to trade positions .
At the beginning my charts were 1-5-15 min.
Today depart and arrive from 15 to monthly.

By the time I realized that I had become too stressful and also made me lose sight of the important things I started many years ago to change my mind.
It's a normal evolution.

I have a friend who taught me trading who is coming now to this same realization. It would be nice because I don't want to spend all my time, later, in front of the computer (now is OK - I'm still gaining experience).
  • #47,005
  • Nov 25, 2008 1:02pm Nov 25, 2008 1:02pm
Quoting geojams
Could you post the option symbols for the puts you bought? I am interested in tracking them? Thanks.

Btw, are you worried about a drop in IV wiping out your premium?
No, I think that we are at key resistance, definitely don't expect the rally to move past 1.34 in the near future. And I can sell the option back and close out my posifition if need be at any time for a profit or a loss before the 18th of December. But in this way I don't have to worry about being whipped out of the trade. The price could indeed touch 1.34 but as long as my option expires in the money, I make money. And I'm pretty sure in the next 23 days, that the eur/usd will be back down to 1.2450. I will probably exit my position before expiration and get much of the premium back. And as for symbols I trade with a Forex options platform. The symbols are simply eur/usd. The price of the put @ 1.30 was $2,940. And I received $2,000 for selling my call at 1.33. I can message you when I exit my position.
  • #47,006
  • Nov 25, 2008 1:04pm Nov 25, 2008 1:04pm
Quoting TradeWell
So then, what IS the definition of scalping? I have seen it defined as "quick" trades, varying from minutes to seconds; or, as trading the spread, to make the difference between bid and ask. It sounds like it can be quite subjective. How do traders define it?
scalping to me is taking a quick trade based on a certain range. for example..if that range is 50 pips...id try to buy at the low lets say and sell at least in the middle for 25 pips. this can take 1minute or 10minutes depending on how fast pa is (asian session would take alot longer usually). however...if the range is 200pips...a quick scalp to me can be anywhere from 50-100pips...this trade may take 1minute to 1hour...but it is still scalping to me because im still playing the range on the larger timeframe. these days...i rarely try more then 50pips gain per trade. so yea..scalping is what you interpret it as. i know to cobra scalping is 1pip to 15pips and hes a happy happy guy...this variable also relates to leverage of course...the bigger the equity..the less pips needed (cobra)...the smaller the equity...the more pips i need to satisfy my needs
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #47,007
  • Nov 25, 2008 1:06pm Nov 25, 2008 1:06pm
Quoting emda
welll all you say is correct... I think scalping is everything trading between 1 pip and 10 pips profit. But with this volatility it can be from 10 to 50. LOL

I scalp for 1 + using the small envelope. It can be a trade of seconds.

But only when in real tight range. I consider scalping part of a method ,not a strategy. Why always scalp ,when at most times there is sync of pa for bigger moves? That if you know how to look at s/r. Not indicators. Indicators will definitely make someone use scalping as a complete strategy ,capturing 90 pips in 30 - 50 trades ,when at the same first entry could capture 150 pips with a tight stop loss and no more entries.


Capture the big move and if you like to play because that's a style for u ,then do it.

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  • #47,008
  • Nov 25, 2008 1:12pm Nov 25, 2008 1:12pm
I know you all love triangles. me too. but more and more. recently... almost all the breakouts of the triangles... at the end reversed to test the other trendline... so there could be a good long level at 1.2980 now
  • #47,009
  • Nov 25, 2008 1:13pm Nov 25, 2008 1:13pm
requoted 6 times and missing 20 pips down
"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" leonardo da vinci
  • #47,010
  • Edited 1:26pm Nov 25, 2008 1:15pm | Edited 1:26pm
Quoting Maxsmart
No, I think that we are at key resistance, definitely don't expect the rally to move past 1.34 in the near future. And I can sell the option back and close out my posifition if need be at any time for a profit or a loss before the 18th of December. But in this way I don't have to worry about being whipped out of the trade. The price could indeed touch 1.34 but as long as my option expires in the money, I make money. And I'm pretty sure in the next 23 days, that the eur/usd will be back down to 1.2450. I will probably exit my position before expiration...
Thank you for the reply. I have an options account and the only symbol I could find was XDE. The 130 put is around $310 and the call is around $210 for the DEC expiration. I did an analysis of the probability of expiring in the money. It is here: http://screencast.com/t/reHdkMUd

I hope I don't sound negative about your trade. I am just trying to understand your reasoning behind it. Personally, I like to sell vertical spreads about 30 days before OE. This seems to be a sweet spot for getting the most from theta decay. I also don't have to worry about open interest if I am making money. I can just let the options expire worthless and keep the premium. The only downside is the limited reward.

...I just realized you sold the call. Now it all makes sense. LOL
  • #47,011
  • Nov 25, 2008 1:17pm Nov 25, 2008 1:17pm
Quoting emda
I know you all love triangles. me too. but more and more. recently... almost all the breakouts of the triangles... at the end reversed to test the other trendline... so there could be a good long level at 1.2980 now
well.. seems it is not going to test the other trendline... but to break it... so . no trade...

oh wait... seems supporting it...
  • #47,012
  • Nov 25, 2008 1:24pm Nov 25, 2008 1:24pm
Quoting emda
I know you all love triangles. me too. but more and more. recently... almost all the breakouts of the triangles... at the end reversed to test the other trendline... so there could be a good long level at 1.2980 now
heres a tip when it comes to triangles that works fairly well lately. when a wall is about to be crossed...looked at the horizontal support/resistance...see if that value has any importance. in other words you are not only looking for a break of the triangle...but also a break of an important support/resistance. this is a perfect example. the nature of a triangle is to narrow its range before big breakout. but by doing so we can clearly see the break out points. note the black horizontal resistance/support. how do you identify a breakout?...15minute candlestick close outside the known walls and support or resistance. the only thing remaining is to determine whether its false or not...this..i dont know how to explain

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note that the horizontal support/resistance may further narrow down to just 20pips maybe before we see a big move happen..or..we may not see a move at all...im keeping the current horizontal lines though as they act as strong support/resistance on larger timeframes
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #47,013
  • Nov 25, 2008 1:25pm Nov 25, 2008 1:25pm
Quoting geojams
Thank you for the reply. I have an options account and the only symbol I could find was XDE. The 130 put is around $310 and the call is around $210 for the DEC expiration. I did an analysis of the probability of expiring in the money. It is here: http://screencast.com/t/reHdkMUd

I hope I don't sound negative about your trade. I am just trying to understand your reasoning behind it. Personally, I like to sell vertical spreads about 30 days before OE. This seems to be a sweet spot for getting the most from theta decay. I also don't have...
I don't neccesarily think that the put is going to expire in the money. but i'm pretty sure it's going back down to 1.2450 in the next 23 days. Like i said I'll probably exit my position before expiration as soon as my profit target is hit at 1.25 and get alot of the premium back that I paid for the option plus the pips. And as for my call that I sold I still think it will expire worthless. I guess we'll see.
  • #47,014
  • Nov 25, 2008 1:32pm Nov 25, 2008 1:32pm
Quoting Maxsmart
I don't neccesarily think that the put is going to expire in the money. but i'm pretty sure it's going back down to 1.2450 in the next 23 days. Like i said I'll probably exit my position before expiration as soon as my profit target is hit at 1.25 and get alot of the premium back that I paid for the option plus the pips. And as for my call that I sold I still think it will expire worthless. I guess we'll see.
Yeah, sorry about that. I thought you bought the call and the put and my options brain was thinking, why would you do that so close to expiration? Selling the call and buying the put makes more sense.
  • #47,015
  • Nov 25, 2008 1:43pm Nov 25, 2008 1:43pm
Heres another perspective, and why i wont go long here. EU tested its 50% daily fib, and just 90 pips away from its mothly fib resistance level....you might get a nice pop of around 90 pips, but myself as a swing trader, am going to stay away from it, unless im scalping for 20 or so pips.
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  • #47,016
  • Nov 25, 2008 1:54pm Nov 25, 2008 1:54pm
yes... putting some monthly and weekly fibs... I see some fibs around 1.3250 area I see that if it breaks up 1.3080.. it could easily go to 1.3250.

which also I see now that it is the target of the flag.
  • #47,017
  • Nov 25, 2008 1:57pm Nov 25, 2008 1:57pm
Quoting emda
yes... putting some monthly and weekly fibs... I see some fibs around 1.3250 area I see that if it breaks up 1.3080.. it could easily go to 1.3250.

which also I see now that it is the target of the flag.
illustrated:
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  • #47,018
  • Nov 25, 2008 2:10pm Nov 25, 2008 2:10pm
Quoting psiholog
i know to cobra scalping is 1pip to 15pips and hes a happy happy guy...this variable also relates to leverage of course...the bigger the equity..the less pips needed (cobra)...the smaller the equity...the more pips i need to satisfy my needs
Yes, you are right, with a 10 pip gain I’m able to buy a Johnny Walker blue label Scotch.

Things changed with the volatility that we experience lately and I lowered my pip value, take a higher Sl and look for more than 10 pips now.

Also a good scalp entry that you projected to TP after some minutes can be a good day trade, observing that the trend is continuing strong, in that cases I switch from 1M to 5M and let it run till I get a TP signal.

I second what Driver said that scalping the 1M TF is a lot of stress and you can't do that all live long.

Below the today’s trade
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  • #47,019
  • Nov 25, 2008 2:14pm Nov 25, 2008 2:14pm
I am seeing turning slowly up.

I too wait for a break of 1.3100 and a movement up to 1.3300.
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  • #47,020
  • Nov 25, 2008 2:16pm Nov 25, 2008 2:16pm
Hello fellow traders,

I'm still here.

Just busy.

I started a hedge fund and I've been contacted to work on a book.

The book will be trading pivots in the currency markets... the majors only.

Whew... a lot of work but it's a great learning experience.

The book will target those with a fundamental understanding of trading these markets.

Moving on...

This current environment is junk.

I wouldn't put to much weight on anything.

Novembers usually suck.

Mike
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