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  • #46,981
  • Nov 25, 2008 10:47am Nov 25, 2008 10:47am
just going through the daily charts, interesting to note that just before diving to new lows, the eur/usd swings high, which is where we are at now
  • #46,982
  • Nov 25, 2008 10:50am Nov 25, 2008 10:50am
Quoting Dansnali
Almost had me convinced.. set wide stop went short walked away came back to find it hit.. there goes my scalping profits for the day.. seems like scalping is the only way i can find consistantcy with this kind of volitility
Hate forums ?????

We each are giving our opinions.

We each are right and wrong at different times.

We each make our own trade decisions and are responsible alone for what happens.
  • #46,983
  • Nov 25, 2008 11:03am Nov 25, 2008 11:03am
Quoting SunTrader
Hate forums ?????

We each are giving our opinions.

We each are right and wrong at different times.

We each make our own trade decisions and are responsible alone for what happens.
its hard NOT to let what you are reading infuence decisions though.
And its definatly better to learn your own system and own methods for the most part. And I know this and know I should follow my own rules only and maybe look to get new perspectives and second opinions here. But once in a while when I should be Standing aside I let someone elses opinion be the deciding factor... heh.. Thats basicly what I meant about hating forums sometimes..

I guess I lack dicipline some what still
  • #46,984
  • Nov 25, 2008 11:17am Nov 25, 2008 11:17am
Quoting Dansnali
its hard NOT to let what you are reading infuence decisions though.
And its definatly better to learn your own system and own methods for the most part. And I know this and know I should follow my own rules only and maybe look to get new perspectives and second opinions here. But once in a while when I should be Standing aside I let someone elses opinion be the deciding factor... heh.. Thats basicly what I meant about hating forums sometimes..

I guess I lack dicipline some what still
if i influenced you to take a decision you shouldnt have...please do whatever it takes in the future to use my opinion only as a second opinion...if your gut feeling or indicators or strategy do not see an entry do not take a trade...period. if you find it too difficult to not do this i see you have 3 options. one stop coming to this forum although it is quite a beneficial tool in one's development as a trader. 2..put me on ignore list as i know i am quite a charismatic individual who can make snakes dance! (kidding about dance part but my strong conviction is quite influential..more then i want sometimes). 3..follow a call service that works but you learn nothing that way and yes im reffering to algirdas

today is one of the fastest moving markets ive seen in a while for eur/usd...interprations change from one minute to the next...me psiholog as a scalper give the most likely outcome for the near future but that does not mean it will complete to its entirety...my strategy adapts on the spot given the conditions.... in other words...my opinion...your opinion...anyones opinion...good as any opinion...the only thing that matters is listening to yourself to get your own best entries/exits. im just providing my interpretations thats all which may point out something you may already be seeying

Note the chart...thats the 1minute timeframe....it was starting to look like inverted h&s...but now we broke south...thats how fast things change right now
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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #46,985
  • Nov 25, 2008 11:26am Nov 25, 2008 11:26am
Yah all the volitility has me overtrading a bit.. but at the same time scalping usually involves a lot of trading.. You might have sold near the top for a bit of a longer term trade.. but seeing more sideways movement than anything right now. A triangle is forming on the five min. I'm not real interest in a signal service. I think forex trading is one of those things that you should never stop learning about and I probably never will.

Quoting psiholog
if i influenced you to take a decision you shouldnt have...please do whatever it takes in the future to use my opinion only as a second opinion...if your gut feeling or indicators or strategy do not see an entry do not take a trade...period. if you find it too difficult to not do this i see you have 3 options. one stop coming to this forum although it is quite a beneficial tool in one's development as a trader. 2..put me on ignore list as i know i am quite a charismatic individual who can make snakes dance! (kidding about dance part but my strong...
  • #46,986
  • Nov 25, 2008 11:29am Nov 25, 2008 11:29am
Quoting Dansnali
Yah all the volitility has me overtrading a bit.. but at the same time scalping usually involves a lot of trading.. You might have sold near the top for a bit of a longer term trade.. but seeing more sideways movement than anything right now. A triangle is forming on the five min. I'm not real interest in a signal service. I think forex trading is one of those things that you should never stop learning about and I probably never will.
yep right from all aspects. honestly at this point in time im not even following pa anymore...i just have stop loss where i entered that trade and following pa for the dow...it looks alot cleaner today then eur/usd...a very nice potential head and shoulders right at the very top on 5min/15min chart with neckline at 8350...we break below that...it should drag eur/usd down too..big time...thats my only indicator right now lol
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #46,987
  • Nov 25, 2008 11:30am Nov 25, 2008 11:30am
Quoting psiholog
...my strategy adapts on the spot given the conditions....
And this is the key to a good trader. If you follow signals, the market can often change faster than the signaler can disseminate. Algirdas has this problem. Even on one of his last buy calls it did not hit his target exactly, which required the TRADER to make the decision. So a trader is a filter of all incoming information, and must be to be successful.
  • #46,988
  • Nov 25, 2008 11:40am Nov 25, 2008 11:40am
Quoting psiholog
yep right from all aspects. honestly at this point in time im not even following pa anymore...i just have stop loss where i entered that trade and following pa for the dow...it looks alot cleaner today then eur/usd...a very nice potential head and shoulders right at the very top on 5min/15min chart with neckline at 8350...we break below that...it should drag eur/usd down too..big time...thats my only indicator right now lol
I agree with you that taking call from forum especially in this fast paced environment.. its an unwise impulsive trade. And thank you for your kind unselfness when you take time off the screen to post your insight! and many thanks also to others that make regulars post in this forum. i'm a little bit ahead of time in my learning process because of you all. good pippin all
"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" leonardo da vinci
  • #46,989
  • Nov 25, 2008 11:45am Nov 25, 2008 11:45am
Quoting ak4x
Not any time soon...Yesterday's pa was my confirmation that the weirdness factor is looking to strengthen this week (as usual for this time of year and will likely get worse...)

Forget the fact we're on the functional verge of having two presidents at once, only one of which has been sworn into office and the country/world will go schizo trying to decipher the sound that crazy two headed thing will be making. Add to that extraordinary surprise announcements that change whole economic landscapes in a moment, old deals get swapped for new deals...
ak4x Thanks for your post,when i read ur name of the post it's came to my my mind Picture of Wise man By the way i'm now trading only 2 pairs as you advice me before 10 days and that improving my performance.

psiholog I like your analysis enhancing my point of entry, Also i read ur name of the post it's came to my mind Smart guy

I have sell limit order [email protected], it's very tempting at this level
we will see if it reach there
  • #46,990
  • Nov 25, 2008 11:50am Nov 25, 2008 11:50am
I'm buying a put @1.30 to expire on the 18th of December. My target is 1.25 for 1.2450 for 550 pips. If the pair moves up to 1.32-34 area I'll buy another put targeting 1.25 for 700-900 pips. With the high levels still on the Vix I don't expect a break to the upside with this pair too quickly without a move back down to the 1.2450 region and possible channeling for a bit. In fact, I favor a breakout to thedownside below 1.23. Also I'm selling a call @ 1.33 to expire the 18th as well.
  • #46,991
  • Nov 25, 2008 11:59am Nov 25, 2008 11:59am
Quoting psiholog
i may start doing that as well. until recently...this kind of volatility was scalper paradise..lots of money to be made but now...the noise is just that...no words can be made out...no patterns can be noticed...no scalps can be attempted without knowing the win/loss ratio is terrible compared to even just 2 weeks ago...my trades are purely gut feeling off visible support/resistance lines and much more planned out...like that 1.2815...thats what im watching for carefully...to the upside...1.2905 is quite relevant (current 61.8% for move from 1.2960...

I think this is an environment to use low leverage in and be very selective with trades. Also, even on the daily, it makes little sense to counter-trend trade. Think about it, we are probably in one of the biggest credit bubble burstings EVER and the market has chosen the EUR as its wipping boy and it is now pretty clear that the US deficit had very little to do with the EUR bubble. Going long the EUR now would be like going long Cisco in Septemeber 2000. Don't do it. .8000 is not out of the question at all.

Look at the arguments for each of these bubbles: Not one of these statements is false, but did not qualify as a reasonable arugment for the respective market movement. Facinating.

IT in 2000: Computers will change the world. (And they did!)
Housing: God isn't making any more of it.
AG (POT, MOS, etc.): People have to eat.
USD: US can't repay its debt.
  • #46,992
  • Edited 12:08pm Nov 25, 2008 12:01pm | Edited 12:08pm
Hmm...last period we clearly closed above the 200 EMA on a 4-hr chart, this period we've stayed above it. The last time we've been above it was back at the end of September.

I will only consider long entries while it remains above.

Regards.
"The markets are the greatest chess match ever played."
  • #46,993
  • Edited 12:14pm Nov 25, 2008 12:01pm | Edited 12:14pm

Hi guys,
I'm back now and I see that the market has done a wonderful target.
Today I slept all day because last night (in Europe) I had to work to develop my working plan. I think if I were left in front of the monitor would have ruined several things.
I was tired and then I was in hedging all day to unlocking 3060.
I'm always short with full load and with an averageprice at 3051.
This is my way of defending difficult positions and also the demonstration that continually watch the market .. drunk the mind.



Edit: On daily basis area 2960-50 is the high level of a the descending channel from 1.640.... it's very important to break this area for a reentrance in the down channel

The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #46,994
  • Nov 25, 2008 12:19pm Nov 25, 2008 12:19pm
that is a most disturbing picture indeed that i see. the flag that was mentioned is of great importance now as it could push this pair up for another 100 pips...even though a break to the downside is more likely. in any case im sticking to my position..the 25% thats left of it anyways and reloading short in the 1.3100 if strong resistance is noticed (1.3100 is where the upper wall of the current uptrend is). careful pippin all or dont pip at all

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #46,995
  • Nov 25, 2008 12:27pm Nov 25, 2008 12:27pm
Quoting psiholog
that is a most disturbing picture indeed that i see. the flag that was mentioned is of great importance now as it could push this pair up for another 100 pips...even though a break to the downside is more likely. in any case im sticking to my position..the 25% thats left of it anyways and reloading short in the 1.3100 if strong resistance is noticed (1.3100 is where the upper wall of the current uptrend is). careful pippin all or dont pip at all

Attachment

I believe that if we go up, the next step for this week is in area 3340-3400.

For my part I go back to hedging at 3060. (I will sleep tonight)

The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #46,996
  • Nov 25, 2008 12:37pm Nov 25, 2008 12:37pm
Quoting Dansnali
Yah all the volitility has me overtrading a bit.. but at the same time scalping usually involves a lot of trading.. I think forex trading is one of those things that you should never stop learning about and I probably never will.
If you're "scalping" while posting on this forum or even reading this forum, then you're not scalping... you're probably getting scalped tho.

I personally think there's not very many genuine scalpers here, and the ones that are here aren't scalping and posting at the same time. You guys know who you are, and please tune me up and correct me if you think I'm wrong.

I know I haven't genuinely "scalped" in some time now, becuz there's not been much need to what with the trend being what it's been recently , but I know I'd be a little rusty if I did. When I'm in "scalp mode" the door to the man cave is closed and everyone knows not to even knock much less come in, unless the house is on fire... I tried posting and scalping one time for a "this is how I do it post..." Scared myself to death and said "never again".

Just sayin... lots of what gets called scalping is probably just short term trading, and there's nothing wrong with that at all, it's just not scalping. Point is the term gets used too loosely long enough and everyone thinks any trade that opens and closes in the same hour or two is a "scalp".
FUBAR...
  • #46,997
  • Nov 25, 2008 12:38pm Nov 25, 2008 12:38pm
Quoting Maxsmart
I'm buying a put @1.30 to expire on the 18th of December. My target is 1.25 for 1.2450 for 550 pips. If the pair moves up to 1.32-34 area I'll buy another put targeting 1.25 for 700-900 pips. With the high levels still on the Vix I don't expect a break to the upside with this pair too quickly without a move back down to the 1.2450 region and possible channeling for a bit. In fact, I favor a breakout to thedownside below 1.23. Also I'm selling a call @ 1.33 to expire the 18th as well.
Could you post the option symbols for the puts you bought? I am interested in tracking them? Thanks.

Btw, are you worried about a drop in IV wiping out your premium?
  • #46,998
  • Nov 25, 2008 12:41pm Nov 25, 2008 12:41pm
Quoting ak4x
If you're "scalping" while posting on this forum or even reading this forum, then you're not scalping... you're probably getting scalped tho.

I personally think there's not very many genuine scalpers here, and the ones that are here aren't scalping and posting at the same time. You guys know who you are, and please tune me up and correct me if you think I'm wrong.

I know I haven't genuinely "scalped" in some time now, becuz there's not been much need to what with the trend beinbg what it's been recently , but I know I'd be a little rusty...
before anything else...have you noticed the correlation between oil and gold and the dollar is all out of sync today?..whats up with that.

second...i know your probably reffering to me as well...when i post i do not have any trades other then the ones i mentioned. when im not posting...lets just say ive had close to 200 trades this month haha...with at least half of them not lasting more then 30minutes...its really about what the definition of scalping is
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #46,999
  • Nov 25, 2008 12:50pm Nov 25, 2008 12:50pm
Quoting psiholog
before anything else...have you noticed the correlation between oil and gold and the dollar is all out of sync today?..whats up with that.

second...i know your probably reffering to me as well...when i post i do not have any trades other then the ones i mentioned. when im not posting...lets just say ive had close to 200 trades this month haha...with at least half of them not lasting more then 30minutes...its really about what the definition of scalping is
So then, what IS the definition of scalping? I have seen it defined as "quick" trades, varying from minutes to seconds; or, as trading the spread, to make the difference between bid and ask. It sounds like it can be quite subjective. How do traders define it?
  • #47,000
  • Nov 25, 2008 12:52pm Nov 25, 2008 12:52pm
about scalping..... in my case I have been trying to learn to scalp for a long time... have tried a lot of systems... but has been a failure... I gave up... I wanted to be scalper... but maybe I was forcing myself to do something I can't... I prefer the good H1 and H4 charts... and will continue with them... I have destroyed two small scalping sub accounts and it is enough to learn that I won't be a scalper. Or maybe one day...
I prefer now to say that I am a currency investor... lol.
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