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  • #46,661
  • Nov 22, 2008 12:45pm Nov 22, 2008 12:45pm
Quoting sphinx
hello all,

My strategy is based on trend following on multi-time frames but these weeks has gone badly.
has it happened before? i mean large moves up and down. E/U used to be trendy. will those times when e/u moved 50-70 pips a day will be back?
You should have a second strategy for sideways markets... or take a vacation

Large moves up and down have occurred all throughout E/U's "life" but I convene that these last months' ranges have been particularly huge.

Open a daily chart and look into the details.
  • #46,662
  • Nov 22, 2008 1:19pm Nov 22, 2008 1:19pm
Quoting doblece
...45 M.P.H. = Micro Pips per Hour)
What an incredible and exhaustive post that was. My head almost exploded halfway thru leading me to wonder if your analysis was too big, or my head is too small...

One thing is clear to me tho. We are indeed at a turning point of some sort, whether it is taking the next step down into the global abyss, or the first step up out of this mess back into the light...

Time will tell, but if ever there was a time to know who has your back, and whose back you have in this day, it's now. I'm speaking about re-evaluating the whole spectrum of our lives and all the thiings that pertain to them.. from the things we hold near and dear to the things we keep at arms length, to the things we keep at a great distance away on the other side of the "No Trespassing" signs.

Things being all the various components of our lives from people, stuff, and our relationships to each. I always try to make sure the effort I put into trading and related issues is less than I "invest" into the things that really count....

Need to say it once more... incredible post with only one complaint... You stopped at the 1hr TF, can you do something for us on the 1-3m TF please?
FUBAR...
  • #46,663
  • Nov 22, 2008 6:08pm Nov 22, 2008 6:08pm
Quoting ak4x
One thing is clear to me tho. We are indeed at a turning point of some sort, whether it is taking the next step down into the global abyss, or the first step up out of this mess back into the light...
...
I'm speaking about re-evaluating the whole spectrum of our lives and all the thiings that pertain to them.. from the things we hold near and dear to the things we keep at arms length, to the things we keep at a great distance away on the other side of the "No Trespassing" signs.

Things being all the various components of our lives from people,...
You are absolutely right. And it is happening everywhere in the world, maybe even neither "down" nor back to what we've always believed was light and could only be a reflection of an illusion... Maybe it's indeed the
time for a totally new perspective and reconsideration of everything under a new and (this time) true light.
  • #46,664
  • Nov 22, 2008 6:33pm Nov 22, 2008 6:33pm
Quoting ak4x
Need to say it once more... incredible post with only one complaint... You stopped at the 1hr TF, can you do something for us on the 1-3m TF please?
Thanks
Here the second part then... Oh-hum. Let's see:

Price is presently above the daily pivot (1.2548) and barely below weekly pivot (1.2606).

M1 = ascending triangle
Down to the daily pivot with or without gap, then bounce up to the weekly pivot (or viceversa)
Could go as far as 61.8% retrace to the LTL of the lower upchannel (around 1.2530).

M5 = upwards/sideways
If wave 3, will go to the weekly pivot and maybe to next top at about 1.2620 - 1.2640. Can start testing the daily pivot though, or even the LTL of the upchannel (around 1.2530) 38.2% fib.
Crossed SMA34, retested and continued.

M15 = sideways with what I call the "reversal bird" (would almost be a 12 hour pinbar - with a 20 pips body and a 147 pips wick) but what bothers me here is that the bottom is "inside" - didn't come from a lower low)
Has to break that triangle thing. Can go first to 50% retrace at 1.2530...

M30 = descending wedge - same birdie.
I've never liked this timeframe... If I watch it with H1 it seems almost exactly the same to me, and if with M15, it's no more than a zoom out... so I don't usually take it into account. Included it here just not to leave anybody out...
If breaks the triangle, could go to a 61.8% retrace at 1.2660.

So, for small timeframes:
lower target = 1.2530
most probable target = daily pivot 1.2550
higher target = 1.2630 - 1.2660
most probable target = weekly pivot 1.2600-1.2615

Finally, M3 chart shows "Da Bird" in all its splendor...

I don't like to pre-analyse in depth smaller timeframes because they develop "on-the-go"... and changes in trend are too fast. That's why I usually stop my weekly task at H1.
(I don't analyse the noise, I just trade it )

Now I wonder... (just made a 12 hour chart out of curiosity for that pinbar... and what I see there almost invalidates the reversal idea... is it a small-poled bullish flag? or continuation of the strong downtrend? is it a bearish pennant? Only time will tell. Maybe if monthly ends as a doji... (or, better, a tweezer bottom) we're indeed going up. Or maybe I have to re-read that William James quote, just in case... (do I see a small birdie nested in that wedge, hmmm... )
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  • #46,665
  • Nov 22, 2008 7:09pm Nov 22, 2008 7:09pm
Trying to understand the logic behind last friday's "inside pinbar" on M12...

On the last three previous fridays, bears most probably left their shorts open for the week-end. Even when the inmediately previous candle (7.11) or previous day (14.11) was quite bullish (this one even with a pinbar).

Now we see a strong reaction which can only be explained by bears closing all their shorts for this week-end (usually few people would open a position a few hours before friday close).

This means to me that at the present moment bears are not so sure as before that the downtrend will continue so they go to the sidelines and wait for the break... and if bears aren't around...
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  • #46,666
  • Nov 22, 2008 9:09pm Nov 22, 2008 9:09pm
Quoting doblece
Trying to understand the logic behind last friday's "inside pinbar" on M12...

On the last three previous fridays, bears most probably left their shorts open for the week-end....
doblece, I have to second ak4x's quandary; it's great to have the information, but my head is going to explode! I guess I have to re-read it a few times. It's like a doctorate thesis! ...but really, thanks. Good homework for the weekend...the work never stops in forex.
  • #46,667
  • Nov 22, 2008 10:35pm Nov 22, 2008 10:35pm
Somali Pirates in Discussions to Acquire Citigroup 21-Nov-08 01:30 pm Somali Pirates in Discussions to Acquire Citigroup


November 20 (Bloomberg) -- The Somali pirates, renegade Somalis known for hijacking ships for ransom in the Gulf of Aden, are negotiating a purchase of Citigroup.

The pirates would buy Citigroup with new debt and their existing cash stockpiles, earned most recently from hijacking numerous ships, including most recently a $200 million Saudi Arabian oil tanker. The Somali pirates are offering up to $0.10 per share for Citigroup, pirate spokesman Sugule Ali said earlier today. The negotiations have entered the final stage, Ali said.

"You may not like our price, but we are not in the business of paying for things. Be happy we are in the mood to
offer the shareholders anything," said Ali.

The pirates will finance part of the purchase by selling new Pirate Ransom Backed Securities. The PRBS's are backed by the cash flows from future ransom payments from hijackings in the Gulf of Aden. Moody's and S&P have already issued their top investment grade ratings for the PRBS's.

Head pirate, Ubu Kalid Shandu, said: "We need a bank so that we have a place to keep all of our ransom money. Thankfully, the dislocations in the capital markets has allowed us to purchase Citigroup
at an attractive valuation and to take advantage of TARP capital to grow the business even faster."

Shandu added, "We don't call ourselves pirates. We are coastguards and this will just allow us to guard our coasts better."

*CITI IN TALKS WITH SOMALI PIRATES FOR POSSIBLE CAPITAL INFUSION

*WILL REQUIRE ALL CITI EMPLOYEES TO WEAR PATCH OVER ONE EYE

*SOMALIAN PIRATES APPLY TO BECOME BANK TO ACCESS TARP

*PAULSON: TARP PIRATE EQUITY IS AN `INVESTMENT,' WILL PAY OFF

*KASHKARI SAYS `SOMALI PIRATES ARE 'FUNDAMENTALLY SOUND' '

*Moody's upgrade Somali Pirates to AAA

*HUD SAYS SOMALI DHOW FORECLOSURE PROGRAM HAD `VERY LOW' PARTICPATION

*SOMALI PIRATES IN DISCUSSION TO ACQUIRE CITIBANK

*FED OFFICIALS: AGGRESSIVE EASING WOULD CUT SOMALI PIRATE RISK
  • #46,668
  • Nov 22, 2008 10:45pm Nov 22, 2008 10:45pm
Quoting Turhovach
Somali Pirates in Discussions to Acquire Citigroup 21-Nov-08 01:30 pm Somali Pirates in Discussions to Acquire Citigroup


November 20 (Bloomberg) -- The Somali pirates, renegade Somalis known for hijacking ships for ransom in the Gulf of Aden, are negotiating a purchase of Citigroup...
This is hilarious
Not all sins are created equal
  • #46,669
  • Nov 23, 2008 1:09am Nov 23, 2008 1:09am
I took a fresh look at the monthly chart and tried to be objective about formulating my own opinion about it. So I sat, and stared. What a way to spend a Saturday night...

I put a simple fib on the chart.The PA seems to have been hanging out in the 38.2 to 61.8 area more, relative to the higher and lower areas. I thought that seemed normal. Then I noticed that the time the price spends in that middle area can be for years at a time.

I added a pivot (H+L+C)/3. Note that the pivot is at about the 50% fib area. Also note how price has bounced off of it nicely.

I also noticed that there were periods of around 4 or so months at a time where price does not fluctuate very much (200-500 pips). This seems to have happened quite a few times, relatively speaking.

I could make some conclusions, but they would resemble ak4x's road sign (http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1227301445). More importantly, I want to know if I am analyzing appropriately:
- Is this time frame too large to be able to apply concepts and experiences, that I have, that are based on very small TF's?
- Is it acceptable to use price history prior to the introduction of the Euro?
- Is making an "all-time" pivot this way invalid?

OK, I stared at it long enough. Homework finished. Can I go out and play now?

side note: I used the online java charts from fxcm. Since I was on the Mac side of my computer, I couldn't use MT4. This is my first chart posting, having downloaded jing.
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  • #46,670
  • Nov 23, 2008 2:23am Nov 23, 2008 2:23am
Quoting TradeWell
More importantly, I want to know if I am analyzing appropriately:
- Is this time frame too large to be able to apply concepts and experiences, that I have, that are based on very small TF's?
- Is it acceptable to use price history prior to the introduction of the Euro?
- Is making an "all-time" pivot this way invalid?
Although I am no authority to dare judge your analytical processes, my opinion is that:

1. Concepts and experiences (and cycles, chart behaviour, etc...) are almost exactly the same in any timeframe, and usually the higher, the most accurate it will be (years - months - days) because of the recurring patterns those timeframes form due to the division of time (activity - inactivity, etc.) Noise is out of the picture. There will be more randomness in smaller timeframes, but cycles are made themselves of smaller cycles inside, which in turn have even smaller cycles, etc.

2. I found here that data for the Eurozone series prior to 1998 is the weighted average of country data rates, as monthly averages. http://europa.eu.int/estatref/info/s.../irt_st_sm.htm
So, in my opinion, and as Euro value is built upon all those countries interaction, it should be valid (if it wasn't, I guess they wouldn't either be showing in the charts...)

3. Independently of the above, as High and Low values have occurred after 1998 (thus the previous data wouldn't be of influence in the calculation of the pivot) and given the fact that we are almost at the end of the month so the difference on a monthly chart (even if for example we went up or down a thousand pips) wouldn't be much greater than 300 pips to the actual calculation, I think it can be taken as valid. This on a monthly chart is not much.

Of course I could be wrong but this is what I think at the present moment.
  • #46,671
  • Nov 23, 2008 2:31am Nov 23, 2008 2:31am
Quoting sphinx
will those times when e/u moved 50-70 pips a day will be back?
Let's hope not. That would really suck...
  • #46,672
  • Nov 23, 2008 7:39am Nov 23, 2008 7:39am
Quoting Turhovach
November 20 (Bloomberg) -- ... renegade Somalis known for hijacking ships for ransom in the Gulf of Aden, are negotiating a purchase of Citigroup.
I laughed until I cried and was wheezing... people started coming into my man cave to check on me. since i couldn't talk, all i could do was point at the screen... Turvo, my wife thinks it's sad that there are apparently two of us on the planet at the same time.

I'll be cleaning things up till the session open at least swabbing out the keyboards, squeege off the monitors, etc.

Coffee everywhere, including places it's never been blown yet.
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #46,673
  • Nov 23, 2008 2:28pm Nov 23, 2008 2:28pm
Has anyone looked at this from a divergence front. I am thinking we may see some weakening of the $. Not set in stone and am willing to hear anything contrary to this. But when it comes to nesting dolls, Doblece, I dont see one in that wedge, if I am missing something please let me know?

Jim
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  • #46,674
  • Nov 23, 2008 2:31pm Nov 23, 2008 2:31pm
Quoting hard1head1
Has anyone looked at this from a divergence front. I am thinking we may see some weakening of the $. Not set in stone and am willing to hear anything contrary to this. But when it comes to nesting dolls, Doblece, I dont see one in that wedge, if I am missing something please let me know?

Jim
Exactly
  • #46,675
  • Nov 23, 2008 2:42pm Nov 23, 2008 2:42pm
We also have a nice Bullish Engulfer on the E/J Daily to end last week, almost like it wanted a kiss goodbye to the inside bottom from 10/27/2008. This is a pair that I believe needs to be watched when trading the E/U and sometimes you will get a sign that will point the direction before you get it on the Euro. Failing to break that Daily UTL and solid top on the reversal candle to boot. This is looking very Bullish to me Guys and I know only time will tell, but that is one huge failure there.
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  • #46,676
  • Nov 23, 2008 2:44pm Nov 23, 2008 2:44pm
Quoting hard1head1
But when it comes to nesting dolls, Doblece, I dont see one in that wedge
Wasn't speaking of nesting dolls in the H12 wedge (not H4) but a smallish "bird" pattern with 13.11 00:00 pinbar as its beak... However there are those two identical patterns on H4, one smaller than the other.

The reverse bullish divergence you're showing is slightly offset but indeed could be. My divergence indicator shows it on M30.
  • #46,677
  • Nov 23, 2008 2:48pm Nov 23, 2008 2:48pm
Gotcha, Thanks.
Quoting doblece
Wasn't speaking of nesting dolls in the H12 wedge (not H4) but a smallish "bird" pattern with 13.11 00:00 pinbar as its beak... However there are those two identical patterns on H4, one smaller than the other.

The reverse bullish divergence you're showing is slightly offset but indeed could be. My divergence indicator shows it on M30.
  • #46,678
  • Nov 23, 2008 4:02pm Nov 23, 2008 4:02pm
Looks like it could be ready for a break soon, both daily and 1H patterns suggest a retrace upwards before the big move.. We will have to wait todays open and tomorrows action to see if it will be proven or not as we still remain in bear market. In mid term the weekly chart is creating bearish flag that if broken will send the pair lower.
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  • #46,679
  • Nov 23, 2008 5:00pm Nov 23, 2008 5:00pm
Quoting Turhovach
Somali Pirates in Discussions to Acquire Citigroup 21-Nov-08 01:30 pm Somali Pirates in Discussions to Acquire Citigroup


November 20 (Bloomberg) -- The Somali pirates, renegade Somalis known for hijacking ships for ransom in the Gulf of Aden, are negotiating a purchase of Citigroup.

The pirates would buy Citigroup with new debt and their existing cash stockpiles, earned most recently from hijacking numerous ships, including most recently a $200 million Saudi Arabian oil tanker. The Somali pirates are offering up to $0.10 per share for Citigroup,...
*LMAO*
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #46,680
  • Nov 23, 2008 5:07pm Nov 23, 2008 5:07pm
Quoting Turhovach
Somali Pirates in Discussions to Acquire Citigroup 21-Nov-08 01:30 pm Somali Pirates in Discussions to Acquire Citigroup


November 20 (Bloomberg) -- The Somali pirates, renegade Somalis known for hijacking ships for ransom in the Gulf of Aden, are negotiating a purchase of Citigroup.

The pirates would buy Citigroup with new debt and their existing cash stockpiles, earned most recently from hijacking numerous ships, including most recently a $200 million Saudi Arabian oil tanker. The Somali pirates are offering up to $0.10 per share for Citigroup,...

thanks for the laugh
Happy pipping
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