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  • #46,641
  • Nov 21, 2008 11:54am Nov 21, 2008 11:54am
Quoting Turhovach
Second guessing the market is a very dangerous pastime.
excellent post.

i look at loser trades as an opportunity to find out what i didn't know about what i thought i knew, or as an opportunity to find out what i thought i knew wasn't what the market "knew", or finally as an opportunity to find out i just don't understand everything I think i know.

added: also winners are simply confirmation that i was in synch with the market on several levels... timing, direction, etc. i'm not my losers, but i'm not my winners either... (probably should use the word "gain or gainers" instead of winners... different implications there)

along that line, here's a great post i saw a few weeks ago from a trader i don't know, but bookmarked anyway. the first comment from Trout is what turned me onto the posting. I've followed his (Trout) postings here pretty closely since I first joined this thing. i'm out for the day now...

One thing, if you take the time to read the post, i think you'll find it worthwhile to read ALL the comments.

cheers and a good weekend all. watch out for the closing...

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php...91#post2309693
FUBAR...
  • #46,642
  • Nov 21, 2008 11:56am Nov 21, 2008 11:56am
Quoting psiholog
there is a quote by aristotle that i absolutely love

"to avoid criticism say nothing, do nothing, and be nothing"

it would be very easy for me to do that. but in doing so....my voice is silenced and my opinions which from feedback i have received have helped others understand the markets better. I still remember when i first joined this thread...channels were virtually non existent from other posters. now...it seems to me many have adapted this into their strategy...with the exception of "old timers" who have mastered their strategy over...
Good post, Psiholog. We have to toot our own horn, too, because nobody else is going to do it for us (he, he). All kidding aside, prayerfully most posts have "sharing" as their underpinning, and any "jabbing" at another is not meant in a vicious way, but is a totally unintended but possible by-product of voicing a different viewpoint. We are all in this for the same reason. Sharing is intended to help..........always, I would assume.
  • #46,643
  • Nov 21, 2008 12:01pm Nov 21, 2008 12:01pm
Quoting psiholog
Does that mean I should be like aristotle says and say nothing or keep posting my opinions as crazy as they may sometimes sound which may help at least one person out there? Quite the dilema here as this is pro bono work which I enjoy doing but when sharply criticized...not so fun anymore..hmm
No way.
Keep posting.
Criticism is just another learning opportunity.
When trading (or posting) try to leave egos (and emotions) at the door (and lock it, just in case).
Your insights and analysis are valuable to many (if not everyone) of us.
And besides...
Criticism is just another learning opportunity.
Be thankful for it, and only keep the learning part. Let go of the rest.
If you don't agree with what's being said, it means there's a WHY to find out.
Today is Friday.
Enjoy!
Here's a hug:
  • #46,644
  • Nov 21, 2008 12:17pm Nov 21, 2008 12:17pm
Quoting doblece
No way.
Keep posting.
Criticism is just another learning opportunity.
When trading (or posting) try to leave egos (and emotions) at the door (and lock it, just in case).
Your insights and analysis are valuable to many (if not everyone) of us.
And besides...
Criticism is just another learning opportunity.
Be thankful for it, and only keep the learning part. Let go of the rest.
If you don't agree with what's being said, it means there's a WHY to find out.
Today is Friday.
Enjoy!
Here's a hug:
thanks for double posting the bold statement. it has made me realize my stubborn nature of hating to be wrong. ah brings back memories of my younger school days when i was insulted id pick a fight..literally..at which point my "opponents" backed down or got a whooping. your right. i shall try to broaden my acceptance of what is helpful criticism but i currently view as a personal attack. as far as check out emotions...never...it is what makes me successful in my trading and will keep posting full of emotions as it gives great insight into my methods. a post from when i was drunk will further elaborate on this..thank you for opening my eyes
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #46,645
  • Nov 21, 2008 12:21pm Nov 21, 2008 12:21pm
Quoting doblece
No way.
Keep posting.
Criticism is just another learning opportunity.
When trading (or posting) try to leave egos (and emotions) at the door (and lock it, just in case).
Your insights and analysis are valuable to many (if not everyone) of us.
And besides...
Criticism is just another learning opportunity.
Be thankful for it, and only keep the learning part. Let go of the rest.
If you don't agree with what's being said, it means there's a WHY to find out.
Today is Friday.
Enjoy!
Here's a hug:
Yes I agree. Psi and Turhovach are great traders. They obviously have different styles. You two could learn alot from each other. psi, I agree you are very successful; your trades prove it. But no matter how good you are, you could always be better. So maybe there could be something gained in every comment, even if it was from a newbie. Turhovach can be a little rough around the edges, but I know sometimes his comments have rattled my brain to make me think harder. And yes, keep the comments flowing. There will always be disagreement, but like Doblece says, "If you don't agree with what's being said, it means there's a WHY to find out."
  • #46,646
  • Nov 21, 2008 12:27pm Nov 21, 2008 12:27pm
Quoting psiholog
Watching pa so much it is not the candlesticks themselves that matter...it is not the supports or resistances themselves that matter...it is not the pivot or the he said this or they said that. It is the psychology behind the move...not why it was done but how it was done...was it decisive..was it panicky...was it full of fear or greed...was it a trap...was it justisified....was it right. Forget about the no emotions taboo that is so strongly advised by most experts. . just know fully to make the distinction of which emotion to apply at the correct time
ah there it is...a moment of lucidity in a moment of excessive alcoholism haha
full post is too long to post but it goes back to either sunday or monday if anyone is interested
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #46,647
  • Nov 21, 2008 12:41pm Nov 21, 2008 12:41pm
my final post until sunday.

we are at a major crossroads. there is a high possibility that we end today with a doji on the weekly charts. that would mean 4weeks in a row with no lower close. since the start of this downtrend at 1.6 we have not seen yet 4 weeks in a row where the 4th week did not close at a new low. Next week's close is crucial as it marks the end of the month and based on how things stand...we may see a reversal in the making or at least a longer period of consolidation. There probably wont be a gap in between market close and open unless some major economic event happens. Have a nice weekend all

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: current.gif Size: 34 KB
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #46,648
  • Nov 21, 2008 12:43pm Nov 21, 2008 12:43pm
Anyone seen Gold price, It shoot up to 796.50
Break 750 strong R!!
  • #46,649
  • Edited 12:53pm Nov 21, 2008 12:43pm | Edited 12:53pm
Quoting psiholog
my stubborn nature of hating to be wrong
I for sure can relate... and is something quite dangerous in forex.
That's how I lost 99,5% of one account some time ago... and that's also why I'm "still here"!

Quoting psiholog
as far as check out emotions...never...it is what makes me successful in my trading and will keep posting full of emotions as it gives great insight into my methods.
I knew you were going to say this
But... emotions are to be treated like horses: use their horse-power without letting them run wild. Let them think they're free so they maintain their purity ("gut feelings") but have a couple of reins handy and timely (discipline and rules).
Trim and shape your natural giftedness like you would for a diamond.

Finally, try to keep a chart of your daily profit/loss and analyze it the same way as a forex chart.

Quoting psiholog
emotion is very much part of the game..whether its fear or greed or this extra sense. just know fully to make the distinction of which to apply at the correct time...if fear overrides all others..close your positions...if greed overrides all others...downsize your position...if your extra sense or "gut feeling" says something...place stop loss accordingly. forget the taboo
Exactly. If you are able, at least 80% of the time, to make the distinction between the "extra sense" and the other two (hint: it usually speaks much less louder), then I have nothing else to say to you on this chapter
BTW, if you are able to identify fear or greed and act accordingly, you're in fact using the "extra sense" = awareness
  • #46,650
  • Nov 21, 2008 12:49pm Nov 21, 2008 12:49pm
Quoting psiholog

we are at a major crossroads.

Attachment
It seems like we are frequently coming back to a crossroads....
  • #46,651
  • Nov 21, 2008 2:55pm Nov 21, 2008 2:55pm
Quoting TradeWell
It seems like we are frequently coming back to a crossroads....
i don't think we ever left it yet, we're still trying to decide if we're going to cross the road...
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #46,652
  • Nov 21, 2008 3:07pm Nov 21, 2008 3:07pm
Have a great weekend everybody!
  • #46,653
  • Edited 7:33pm Nov 21, 2008 7:22pm | Edited 7:33pm
MONTHLY
********
50% fibo from LL to HH = 1.2131
Price is presently sitting slightly lower than mid-point between 38.2% and 50% so it's quite near.
EW = Wave 1, could retrace to 1.3203 (23.6%) 1.3745 (38.2%)
Shoulder level (horizontally taken) at 1.3667 for a right shoulder if H&S pattern in process.
Uptrend LTL at 1.1209 which is also 61.8% retracement of the upmove (0.8347 - 1.6037)

WEEKLY
*******
50% at 1.4182 (downmove 1.6037 - 1.2328)
EW = possible prolongation of wave 5 or breakout upwards for starting of corrective wave A.

DAILY
*****
50% at 1.3599 (downmove 1.4864 - 1.2328)
38.2% at 1.3297
Triple (sextuple) bottom (strong support at around 1.2450)
Descending triangle inside a descending wedge (most likely to break to the downside?)

Downtrend LTL of small descending channel inside the wedge, at about 1.2150 at the end of next week (presently 1.2260, which is also 138.2% extension of this week's high to low downmove - 161.8% extension is at 1.2181).

H4 (november)
*************
Diminishing fractal pattern = possible downtrend exhaustion:

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f2...ctalssmall.gif

Double bottom at about 1.2450.
Sideways with a possible turn up.
Waiting for the breakout of the triangle.
Possible targets at 1.3115 (100%)
1.2842 50% fibo which can be retested and broken leading to 1.2949 61.8%
138.2% extension is at 1.3643
(still considering the 1000 pips sideways channel between 1.23-1.33)

H1 (this week's hig/low)
********************
Retest of the high at 1.2813 if support at around 1.2600 holds (inverted H&S shoulder continuation) and triangle broken to the upside. If not, down to the lower wall (see Daily).

If bottom support broken, I would see a primary target at around 1.2260, making a new low and bounce back to 1.2400 - 1.2450.

If it gaps down to 1.2500, bounce at pivot and back up to 1.2740, or continuation down to lowest low which is roughly the 161.8% extension of friday's high to low move, and possible double bottom going back up to fill the gap at 1.2600 - 1.2650.

If it gaps up to 1.2660 (fib 61.8% of this week's downmove), continuation and retest of UTL at around 1.2750, then down again to 1.2600 - 1.2550 to fill the gap. If no consistent gap, I would see a continuation upwards to 1.2660 - 1.2750.

****************

Ok.
After all this rambling, this is my preferred medium term view: I am still bullish with my last week's view of starting the upwards corrective A wave:

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f2...chartsmall.gif

Potential target at around 1.3390 (compare both double bottoms, this week's and last month's end) making an ABCD pattern. (AB = CD = 968 pips; 1.2422+968 = 1.3390)

Keeping an eye on a downward break, though, for the possible prolongation of weekly wave 5 to the 161.8% extension at 1.2181 - 1.2150 if bears very enthusiastic.

Or, as ak4x said:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1227301445

(M.P.H. = Micro Pips per Hour)
  • #46,654
  • Nov 21, 2008 7:27pm Nov 21, 2008 7:27pm
Quoting Turhovach
... Second guessing the market is a very dangerous pastime.
But only for a Short Time. Because You Will Be Extingushed.

Quoting Turhovach
One of the most important things I've learned in my many years at this game is to ALWAYS respect the market and what it does, no matter how "illogical" it may seem to me. There is a purpose for everything that happens, and the sooner you accept that, the sooner you'll be successful at this game...
I think this is worth repeating.
  • #46,655
  • Nov 21, 2008 8:04pm Nov 21, 2008 8:04pm
I think this is worth repeating.[/quote]

your right !!!!

The more I read turhovach the more I like him. Your posts on the other hand are just great Please give us as much as you can stand

Please lord let me have as great a twisted sense of humor as Bemac.
  • #46,656
  • Nov 22, 2008 4:39am Nov 22, 2008 4:39am
Hi there.

The U.S. dollar fell against the euro yesterday, speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and flood the financial system with cash in a recession leads to falling prices. Yesterday EURUSD opened and closed at 1.2447 to 1.2496 after a stormy day in this pair that was high in the low 1.2577 and 1.2443. At the beginning of today's session is getting stronger euro against the U.S. dollar.

Regards
{Promotion Removed}
  • #46,657
  • Nov 22, 2008 9:40am Nov 22, 2008 9:40am
Quoting psiholog

the only problem i have which i am still struggling is the startup capital...i intend to win the ibfx contest in november though with a mini account start value 250$ so that will be my startup capital....50cent pips for the first week and 1dollar pips for the last 3 weeks...that increases a 250dollar account to 2850 in 4 weeks and probably the highest gain that contest ever saw...i know i can do it
Hows the contest going for you this month?
USD Est Non Mortuus
  • #46,658
  • Nov 22, 2008 10:07am Nov 22, 2008 10:07am
hello all,

My strategy is based on trend following on multi-time frames but these weeks has gone badly.
has it happened before? i mean large moves up and down. E/U used to be trendy. will those times when e/u moved 50-70 pips a day will be back?
  • #46,659
  • Nov 22, 2008 10:50am Nov 22, 2008 10:50am
Quoting sphinx
hello all,

My strategy is based on trend following on multi-time frames but these weeks has gone badly.
has it happened before? i mean large moves up and down. E/U used to be trendy. will those times when e/u moved 50-70 pips a day will be back?
I can't imagine that the volatility will cease. Read doblece's post below, and you can easily deduce that anything can happen (and probably will!). Some days will be slow, and some days will be highly volatile, imo. If you follow trends, you may not see medium or long-term trends but only short ones. If you don't trade those, you may want to develop a secondary strategy on demo. Here is one tool many of us have been working with:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...91&postcount=1

Hope that helps.
  • #46,660
  • Edited 12:53pm Nov 22, 2008 12:30pm | Edited 12:53pm
Quoting doblece
MONTHLY
********
50% fibo from LL to HH = 1.2131
Price is presently sitting slightly lower than mid-point between 38.2% and 50% so it's quite near.
EW = Wave 1, could retrace to 1.3203 (23.6%) 1.3745 (38.2%)
Shoulder level (horizontally taken) at 1.3667 for a right shoulder if H&S pattern in process.
Uptrend LTL at 1.1209 which is also 61.8% retracement of the upmove (0.8347 - 1.6037)

WEEKLY
*******
50% at 1.4182 (downmove 1.6037 - 1.2328)
EW = possible prolongation of wave 5 or breakout upwards for starting of corrective wave A.

DAILY
*****
50% at 1.3599 (downmove 1.4864 - 1.2328)
38.2% at 1.3297
Triple (sextuple) bottom (strong support at around 1.2450)
Descending triangle inside a descending wedge (most likely to break to the downside?)...
Thanks great analysis. Agree with you "Daily- will short here 1.3297 if it goes that high"
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