DislikedSure my friend,
The gold line 122.72 broke, i had my order 10 pips away (always) and hold it up to 124.
Look how the retracement supported on the blue 123.57.
May the ride continue... hopefully.Ignored
- #6,165
- Edited 8:50am Nov 19, 2008 8:41am | Edited 8:50am
- | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Gartley_Trader | 170 Posts
GW,
OK, so my previous tounge-in-cheek fell flat. Sorry.
What we have here is called a triangle in a downtrend. There are many different patterns like this; triangles, descending and ascending triangles, descending and ascending wedges, flags, pennants, etc. Here is a good source for information: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/triangle.asp.
A triangle is basically a horizontal pattern. A descending triangle will have a flat lower edge and an ascending triangle will have a flat upper edge.
Many people have attributed a bias one way or another to these different patterns. Descending triangles are considered bearish and ascending triangles are considered bullish. If I remember correctly, the straight triangle, such as we have here, can be considered as a trend continuation pattern. But, my experience says to expect the unexpected; don't bet the farm on any bias holding true.
Hope this helps.
P.S. Nice example of ascending wedge on the 4H Swissy.
OK, so my previous tounge-in-cheek fell flat. Sorry.
What we have here is called a triangle in a downtrend. There are many different patterns like this; triangles, descending and ascending triangles, descending and ascending wedges, flags, pennants, etc. Here is a good source for information: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/triangle.asp.
A triangle is basically a horizontal pattern. A descending triangle will have a flat lower edge and an ascending triangle will have a flat upper edge.
Many people have attributed a bias one way or another to these different patterns. Descending triangles are considered bearish and ascending triangles are considered bullish. If I remember correctly, the straight triangle, such as we have here, can be considered as a trend continuation pattern. But, my experience says to expect the unexpected; don't bet the farm on any bias holding true.
Hope this helps.
P.S. Nice example of ascending wedge on the 4H Swissy.
GW,
OK, so my previous tounge-in-cheek fell flat. Sorry.
What we have here is called a triangle in a downtrend. There are many different patterns like this; triangles, descending and ascending triangles, descending and ascending wedges, flags, pennants, etc. Here is a good source for information: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/triangle.asp.
A triangle is basically a horizontal pattern. A descending triangle will have a flat lower edge and an ascending triangle will have a flat upper edge.
Many people have attributed...
seattle, thanks for taking the time to explain. I enjoy your posts. You don't post much but when you do its always something good. I had shorted swissie up here based on an h2 near upper channel tap. gunning for that lower trend line at 1.2000 or so
- #6,176
- Nov 19, 2008 11:47am Nov 19, 2008 11:47am
ALL those pairs broke trendlines and had huge moves upon breaking the trendlines, before completely retracing them. Again, to me that signals that it was a technical move NOT supported by fundamentals. The fundamentals are down (stocks getting killed again), so what fundamental reason was there for the E/U or G/U to bounce up? None. Traders covered profits and the move reversed to get back in line with the fundamentals. That is my take on what happened.
And for further evidence that it was a purely technical move: note that the USDJPY did NOT...
Well, still, every other USD pair did that move at the very same time. as i see it JPY has been gaining weight for some time now, so might that be if we look at psychology aspect in here that U/J would have been worst pair to trade for those news? even so, i do not disagree that it did break trendline in those pairs, i still believe it was a tandem effect. but as i see it we both can keep our opinions and be happy as i dont think we will ever get to know the absolute truth
- #6,178
- Nov 19, 2008 12:09pm Nov 19, 2008 12:09pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,522 Posts
It was a clean breakout. It broke 1.2650 and accelerated and rose 150 pips in a few minutes. 150 pips in 40 minutes is no joke. Any time I have the opportunity get 150 pips in less than an hour, I'm ecstatic.
The fact that it has no come all the way back down almost as fast as it rose indicates to me that in no way are the fundamentals driving this trade, because the fundamentals don't change that fast. If it was just the fundamentals that caused the EURUSD to go up, why is it back down already? If anything, I'm reading it as a purely technical...
first of all,
doesn't a CLEAN breakout mean that the price actually BREAKS the wedge and at least temporarily change course ???? What do we call a false breakout then ???
If it were a clean breakout and everybody was noticing and actually taken it into account then the price would have found a support at someplace while coming down. if anything that was a CLEAN FALSE breakout, that could only be traded as a scalp trade and you were lucky that the price went that far at all.
Secondly, about fundamentals, if you thought that i was talking about general conditions and that breakout meant that the credit crisis is over, people are getting their jobs back, banks lending money at zero libor and so on then you must be thinking that i'm a total noob
...maybe i am though
no i wasn't talking about general conditions but a certain news event.
now you want me to note that dow is down
come on dude, you have seen what the dow have been doing past several days haven't you...so that note doesn't mean a damn thing. Note that the dow went up almost 200 points at the time when it actually had a lower high and a lower low before that spike. So, TECHNICALLY what made it go up from nowhere ??? Certainly not the "King" technical analysis.i don't mean to step into conflict with anybody here just to let the newbies (pretty new myself) know that technical analysis itself, i dare to say, is pure crap...it is only the trigger. But newbies treat, just like i used to, technical analys as gold and this is where they fail (coupled with emotions). Everybody wants an easy way out and technical analysis seem at first to provide that.
Technical analysis work well when you got the direction/sentiment right. That is why some people here have mentioned that even BRV support and resistance are crap....that's only because they use plainly that....In my opinion there is no better TA than s/r levels and buckets but the thing is that YOU NEVER KNOW which one will hold.
- #6,180
- Nov 19, 2008 12:28pm Nov 19, 2008 12:28pm
By understanding or thinking that you understand why price made certain things at certain time helps you to be better prepared to make even more pips (or stay as far as you can, as i did) when similar kind of conditions are met. surely, i bet that someone made a nice chunk of money in there, but someone lost that same ammount allso.. and i am stepping aside in future when some important news are coming out, too much rumble in the jungle at those times usually but again, if you are doing great by only trading from Tech, be very happy, much less stress and things to take in account. 
but again, if you are doing great by only trading from Tech, be very happy, much less stress and things to take in account.