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'Try to Lose Money' Experiment

  • #21
  • Mar 5, 2007 7:28am Mar 5, 2007 7:28am
Quoting Igrok
You are an individual and thus represent only yourself. I was talking about the actual statistics of the company that has thousands of retail clients.
If avg spread = 3, 3=40% that means their avg loss outside of the spread is 7,7.5 pips? All these folks must be scalping, there are few with that skill. No wonder 90% of traders lose their money.
The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
  • #22
  • Edited 8:05am Mar 5, 2007 7:37am | Edited 8:05am
Quoting StockKJay
If avg spread = 3, 3=40% that means their avg loss outside of the spread is 7,7.5 pips? All these folks must be scalping, there are few with that skill. No wonder 90% of traders lose their money.
Some time ago I have already posted some statistical numbers in this thread:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=12733
It is described in more details on my amazon blog. The statistics is NOT about the scalpers only. It is general.
  • #23
  • Mar 5, 2007 4:38pm Mar 5, 2007 4:38pm
If you really are serious about losing money, just take every trade i take and you will be well on your way!

Forex signal companies give me the same look a buffet manager gives a 400 pound man!!
I could take the best forex signals from the best signal company and somehow the market knows I entered and then it says" OK, Rick has entered a trade so it's time we go in the opposite direction now!"

The above may be a little "over the top", but don't you ever feel this way?

PS. This is all going to change now...I have drastically changed my view on how to trade plus I have purchased Igroks book!
  • #24
  • Mar 5, 2007 6:13pm Mar 5, 2007 6:13pm
Quoting RickW00716
I could take the best forex signals from the best signal company and somehow the market knows I entered and then it says" OK, Rick has entered a trade so it's time we go in the opposite direction now!"
Hahahaha , I hear you brother, it really seems that way sometimes.http://forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
  • #25
  • Edited 7:14pm Mar 5, 2007 6:31pm | Edited 7:14pm
Quoting Igrok
Those numbers I took directly from the back office of a major London based dealing company. It was their actual statistics. That time I offered them a new joint venture project that would generate trading signals based entirely on the sentiment of their retail clientele. Each retail customer position had to be mirrored, reversed and then sent into the real market automatically. Eliminating the spreads was one of the problems we had to deal with.
Please keep in mind that "reversing" losing trades from consistent losers in the forex market will NOT give you any special mathematical advantage.

Over the years I backtested hundred of forex systems. Most of them are losing systems. Now you would think : "Hey, just take a losing system, reverse it and voila! you now have a winning system!"

I can assure you that nothing could be further from the truth !!

Here is an example: System A gives you a total loss of 5000 pips after 1000 day-trades, 5 pip spread included. Now you would normally think that by reversing the system (go long when the system gives a SELL signal and short when the system generates a BUY signal) your total profits would now be +5000 pips, right?

Well wrong, in this particular example, if you "reverse" system A (assuming a stop loss of 25 pips and 75 pip limit target) you will still get a loss of 5000 pips: 5000 - (1000 * 10) = 5000 - 10000 = -5000. The problem with reversing trades is that you CANNOT reverse the spread too, unfortunately.

So taking the opposite position of "forex losers" will get you nowhere Igrok, if this is indeed what you are trying to accomplish.
  • #26
  • Mar 5, 2007 7:51pm Mar 5, 2007 7:51pm
if you put all of the lot in 1 trade, whatever the methode it is, and it is hard to lose money, with only a 0.5-1%equity put into play whatever methode it is

0 spread & swap right?
  • #27
  • Mar 5, 2007 8:06pm Mar 5, 2007 8:06pm
i'm trading forex for a gwhile and trust me, If u have made a good analysis and did a good entry, then psychology has only a small role to play. If your trade is losing and your SL is hit, then that's it. if your SL is ridiculous then that's psychology right there and you probably need to see a forex psychiatrist. Just kidding, but just follow a good system and expect losses....sometimes 3 or more in a row.
  • #28
  • Mar 5, 2007 8:14pm Mar 5, 2007 8:14pm
Quoting Gwan
if you put all of the lot in 1 trade, whatever the methode it is, and it is hard to lose money, with only a 0.5-1%equity put into play whatever methode it is
This is another trading myth, the idea that you cannot lose if each trade (bet) represents only a small portion of your total trading balance (let's say 1% maximum on each trade).

In real life, if you don't know what you are doing (random trading) you will STILL lose in the long run, no matter how small you bet/trade, the ruin theory will make sure of that.

Still not conviced?

Go to Las Vegas with $10,000 and play the $0.25 slot machines long enough and you WILL end up losing your entire bankroll, even though each bet (trade) represents only 0.000025% of your capital.

Casinos operators make billion of dollars a quarter at a time. In the forex market, if you don't have a trading system that gives you a statistical edge, you will lose all your money after a while, one pip at a time, just like in a casino.
  • #29
  • Edited 9:29pm Mar 5, 2007 9:16pm | Edited 9:29pm
Quoting FXTerminator
Please keep in mind that "reversing" losing trades from consistent losers in the forex market will NOT give you any special mathematical advantage.

Over the years I backtested hundred of forex systems. Most of them are losing systems. Now you would think : "Hey, just take a losing system, reverse it and voila! you now have a winning system!"........
My dear, after making living in FX trading for almost 14 years, I have eventually figured out the difference between "the system" and "the statistics". Hope you will also get the idea one day. Present your findings to the dealers and brokers. They will not laugh in your face only because they would want to keep you as a customer for a bit longer. GL
  • #30
  • Edited 9:56pm Mar 5, 2007 9:46pm | Edited 9:56pm
Quoting Igrok
My dear, after making living in FX trading for almost 14 years, I have eventually figured out the difference between "the system" and "the statistics". Hope you will also get the idea one day. Present your findings to the dealers and brokers. They will not laugh in your face only because they would want to keep you as a customer for a bit longer. GL
I am not sure I quite understand your post, even though I do sense some unnecessary sarcasm. What are you trying to say, in short? Forex dealers and brokers make money because, like casino owners, they have a statistical edge, the spread, no reverse trades are ever needed in their case like your post is implying (or not), I think you are confusing the issue here.

Also, why are you interested in losing systems and losers in general, if you are already so successful in the FX market, like you claim?
  • #31
  • Mar 5, 2007 9:58pm Mar 5, 2007 9:58pm
Quoting FXTerminator
I am not sure I quite understand your post, even though I do sense some unnecessary sarcasm. What are you trying to say, in short? Forex dealers and brokers make money because, like casino owners, they have a statistical edge, the spread, no reverse trades are ever needed in their cases, I think you are confusing the issue here.

Also, why are you interested in losing systems and losers in general, if you are already so successful in the FX market, like you claim?
OK. I will try. If losers don't lose then dealers and their families will die out because of hunger and the retail FX will cease to exist. Is it clear enough?
  • #32
  • Mar 5, 2007 10:13pm Mar 5, 2007 10:13pm
Quoting Igrok
OK. I will try. If losers don't lose then dealers and their families will die out because of hunger and the retail FX will cease to exist. Is it clear enough?
What?? Are you for real ??

FX brokers make money from the losers AND the winners, via the spread, they do not care who is winning or losing, they just collect the spread from both sides.
  • #33
  • Edited 10:47pm Mar 5, 2007 10:18pm | Edited 10:47pm
Quoting FXTerminator
What?? Are you for real ??

FX brokers make money from the losers AND the winners, via the spread, they do not care who is winning or losing, they just collect the spread from both sides.
You're definitely one of the funniest FX related persons I have ever seen. Please, try not to tell this not so smart thing to any dealing company's employee. Poor guy might even die just laughing at you.
  • #34
  • Mar 5, 2007 10:28pm Mar 5, 2007 10:28pm
Quoting Igrok
You're definitely one of the funniest FX related persons I have ever seen. Please, try not to tell this no so smart thing to any dealing company's employee. Poor guy might even die just laughing at you.
Well if you think that winners (like losers) do NOT pay the spread on each trade they are initiating, then there is nothing else I can do for you.

By the way, where are the backtest results of your so called "High percentage market" patterns in your "Beat the odds in forex" trading book?

Or do we just have to take your word for it and trade these setups blindly?
  • #35
  • Mar 5, 2007 10:53pm Mar 5, 2007 10:53pm
Quoting FXTerminator
Well if you think that winners (like losers) do NOT pay the spread on each trade they are initiating, then there is nothing else I can do for you.

By the way, where are the backtest results of your so called "High percentage market" patterns in your "Beat the odds in forex" trading book?

Or do we just have to take your word for it and trade these setups blindly?
You make me laugh over and over again. Tell me a single reason why I should care about it? Try and figure it out whether it works for you or not.
  • #36
  • Mar 5, 2007 11:05pm Mar 5, 2007 11:05pm
.......has officially lost me. Entertaining though.
Show me the PIPS!
  • #37
  • Mar 5, 2007 11:51pm Mar 5, 2007 11:51pm
Quoting Igrok
You make me laugh over and over again. Tell me a single reason why I should care about it? Try and figure it out whether it works for you or not.
No Sir, it is YOUR duty to prove to us the profitabilty of your patterns, that's why we paid $60 each for your book.

Take the simple pattern on page 148, could you tell us how profitable this setup is ? How many pips can we make (or lose!) per year with this day-trade pattern, what drawdown to expect, etc...

You simply cannot put a bunch of patterns in a book and tell your readers " Hey, try it out and see if it is working". YOU are the expert, YOU created these patterns, YOU tell us.
  • #38
  • Mar 6, 2007 12:10am Mar 6, 2007 12:10am
Quoting StockKJay
If avg spread = 3, 3=40% that means their avg loss outside of the spread is 7,7.5 pips? All these folks must be scalping, there are few with that skill. No wonder 90% of traders lose their money.
Even an awesome trend following system will generate a low "average" pips per trade figure. You have to divide the NET pips by the total number of trades to get that number, so even relativly infrequent huge wins will average down when you account for the frequent small losses.

As an example, spread inclusive, my average take is only 5.89 pips on a 20/20 system. Most scalpers I know only average 0.25 pips per trade...
  • #39
  • Mar 6, 2007 12:14am Mar 6, 2007 12:14am
Quoting FXTerminator
No Sir, it is YOUR duty to prove to us the profitabilty of your patterns, that's why we paid $60 each for your book.

Take the simple pattern on page 148, could you tell us how profitable this setup is ? How many pips can we make (or lose!) per year with this day-trade pattern, what drawdown to expect, etc...

You simply cannot put a bunch of patterns in a book and tell your readers " Hey, try it out and see if it is working". YOU are the expert, YOU created these patterns, YOU tell us.
In the guys defense, I have never seen any trading system book that provided backtest results for the patterns discussed. Your job as a trader is to take the ideas the book provides and find ways of incorporating them into your own trading system.
  • #40
  • Mar 6, 2007 12:16am Mar 6, 2007 12:16am
Quoting Darkstar
Most scalpers I know only average 0.25 pips per trade...
That means you need 100 trades to make 25 pips per day. So how much are they making an hour then?
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