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Spud's Predictive MTF Stochastics

  • #541
  • Nov 16, 2008 9:38pm Nov 16, 2008 9:38pm
sorry for the poor quality. Not sure if I did something wrong saving it or not.


todd
  • #542
  • Nov 16, 2008 9:54pm Nov 16, 2008 9:54pm
Was good for a quick +20. Too nervous to have held onto much longer even though there wasn't a valid short signal.
  • #543
  • Edited 10:37pm Nov 16, 2008 10:23pm | Edited 10:37pm
Looks like an elastic trade here where the 5m and 15m go down to pick up the 30m and H1...

5m just croosed 15m and 1m had "peaked" and is coming down towards 0.

Also the 15m just flattened out and price has closed below the last 5m trigger point.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR.JPG Size: 166 KB
Time hides Nothing
  • #544
  • Edited 10:46pm Nov 16, 2008 10:26pm | Edited 10:46pm
I looked at 11/14 using the m5xm15 indicator to trade. Trades were taken on the open of the next bar immediate after the indicator arrow prints, of course in the direction of the arrow. SL and TP were both set to 10 pips. Here's what I found:

37 trades, 26 winners, 11 losers or net 150 pips

there were 17 consecutive wins between the start of the day GMT 0 and the London close. Then there were losses greater than wins. For today so far, there are 4 wins and 4 losses.

In reality, it is hard to open the trade at the exact open price of the bar, therefore the SL and TP should be based upon the bar opening price +/- 10 pips, not necessarily your actual price +/- 10 pips. I say this because many of the trades just made the 10 pip mark from the opening price. This may reduce pips by say 2 per winning trade and increase losses by 2 per losing trade. so the net pippage would be more like 76 pips or thereabouts. I also wonder if there is an advantage to shutting down trading when London closes. I think the only way to evaluate this properly is to build an EA..anyone...anyone? Until then I plan to go day by day and see if it consistenly yields positive pips.

FW
Isolate yourself from the herd
  • #545
  • Nov 16, 2008 11:31pm Nov 16, 2008 11:31pm
What do you consider to be a loss? Is it when your SL is hit or is it when the stochs and price turn the opposite direction entirely?

Quoting forexweasel
I looked at 11/14 using the m5xm15 indicator to trade. Trades were taken on the open of the next bar immediate after the indicator arrow prints, of course in the direction of the arrow. SL and TP were both set to 10 pips. Here's what I found:

37 trades, 26 winners, 11 losers or net 150 pips

there were 17 consecutive wins between the start of the day GMT...
  • #546
  • Nov 16, 2008 11:37pm Nov 16, 2008 11:37pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Looks like an elastic trade here where the 5m and 15m go down to pick up the 30m and H1...

5m just croosed 15m and 1m had "peaked" and is coming down towards 0.

Also the 15m just flattened out and price has closed below the last 5m trigger point.
This has turned out to be a much longer trade tahn I first anticipated and that big spike up scared the you know what out of me but looking at the chart at the time it seemed like the worst place in the world to go long with the 15m still high and dropping
Time hides Nothing
  • #547
  • Nov 16, 2008 11:46pm Nov 16, 2008 11:46pm
i ve a question about the entry point

if i ve 5m trigger buy+m5 price start to build up+15m starts to follow
do i ve to wait for 15m to close to confirm the up movenand enter with the opening of the next 15m candle?
  • #548
  • Nov 16, 2008 11:55pm Nov 16, 2008 11:55pm
Quoting sarah2002
i ve a question about the entry point

if i ve 5m trigger buy+m5 price start to build up+15m starts to follow
do i ve to wait for 15m to close to confirm the up movenand enter with the opening of the next 15m candle?
You wouldn't know that the 15M is starting to follow unless you are waiting until the candle closes to see where the stoch is, right? Remember, you must wait for candle closes to judge/know the position of the stochs.
  • #549
  • Nov 16, 2008 11:58pm Nov 16, 2008 11:58pm
Quoting sarah2002
i ve a question about the entry point

if i ve 5m trigger buy+m5 price start to build up+15m starts to follow
do i ve to wait for 15m to close to confirm the up movenand enter with the opening of the next 15m candle?
I know we did when using the 5m 15m 30m H1 and H4 Sarah but in the previous examples Spud posted with the 1m etc he entered that short when the 15m was still up so sounds like a question for Spud to me

Wish I could be more help
Time hides Nothing
  • #550
  • Nov 17, 2008 12:01am Nov 17, 2008 12:01am
Man this trade is stressing me out Closing at 22 pips - Don't know if I was meant to exit any earlier here my original plan was to trade the 15m down tto the 30m. hm
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Click to Enlarge Name: EUR.JPG Size: 175 KB
Time hides Nothing
  • #551
  • Nov 17, 2008 12:02am Nov 17, 2008 12:02am
Quoting jdcompute
What do you consider to be a loss? Is it when your SL is hit or is it when the stochs and price turn the opposite direction entirely?

each trade either hit SL or TP. They are stricltly m5xm15 without the usual spud m5 trigger signal with m15 follow-through.
Isolate yourself from the herd
  • #552
  • Nov 17, 2008 12:08am Nov 17, 2008 12:08am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Man this trade is stressing me out Closing at 22 pips - Don't know if I was meant to exit any earlier here my original plan was to trade the 15m down tto the 30m. hm
If I get a valid signal to go short, I will enter. Right now it seems like a rubberband trade but I'm waiting on the 5M to peak over 90%. If the 15m continues to follow, then I'll enter short for a few quick pips.
  • #553
  • Nov 17, 2008 12:11am Nov 17, 2008 12:11am
Looking at the m5m15 stoch crossover signal for 11/13, there were 42 trades, 22 winners and 20 losers. If figure you lose 2 pips to slippage per trade, hence -60 or so on that day. Wonder is there's an easy way to filter out the bad trades?
Isolate yourself from the herd
  • #554
  • Nov 17, 2008 12:15am Nov 17, 2008 12:15am
Quoting forexweasel
Looking at the m5m15 stoch crossover signal for 11/13, there were 42 trades, 22 winners and 20 losers. If figure you lose 2 pips to slippage per trade, hence -60 or so on that day. Wonder is there's an easy way to filter out the bad trades?
There sure is weasel - Instead of looking down the traiin track with binoculars why not get a birds eye view instead
Time hides Nothing
  • #555
  • Nov 17, 2008 12:32am Nov 17, 2008 12:32am
Quoting CindyXXXX
There sure is weasel - Instead of looking down the traiin track with binoculars why not get a birds eye view instead
Agreed, I always do better entering a true MTF trade using Spud's new M5 entry. But he did also bandy about entry based upon m5xm15 stoch crossover. After looking at three days worth of backtesting now, I'd say I'm going to stick to the original plan! But I still wonder if an EA were used, if it would reduce slippage enough to make it a viable system.

It's way past my bedtime (EST) and I have to get up before 6am! Goodnight!
Isolate yourself from the herd
  • #556
  • Nov 17, 2008 3:49am Nov 17, 2008 3:49am
i found 2 interesting stochasic indicators if anyone wants to try them
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Perintis[DIGISTOCH].ex4   17 KB | 399 downloads
File Type: mq4 Perintis[DIGISTOCH].mq4   20 KB | 490 downloads
File Type: ex4 OnChart_Stochastic_Channel_(FL_MTF).ex4   8 KB | 448 downloads
File Type: mq4 OnChart_Stochastic_Channel_(FL_MTF).mq4   7 KB | 582 downloads
  • #557
  • Nov 17, 2008 7:14am Nov 17, 2008 7:14am
Quoting forexweasel
I looked at 11/14 using the m5xm15 indicator to trade. Trades were taken on the open of the next bar immediate after the indicator arrow prints, of course in the direction of the arrow. SL and TP were both set to 10 pips. Here's what I found:

37 trades, 26 winners, 11 losers or net 150 pips

there were 17 consecutive wins between the start of the day GMT...
You can't simply trade the indicators.
You have to determine if you are trend trader or a scalper in each trade...i.e. what is your goal.
For example....if you trend trade without S/L, you'll find eventually almost evey indicating arrow is a winner (for 10 pips)...except that is an insane way to trade.
You could use money management and exit and then double up on the next entry and so on....crazy too.
You could use MTF Stochastics as your guide and think your way through each trade...very profitable but difficult.

So, here's something simple to try in scalper mode:

Play each indicating arrow as either it will win you 10 pips, break even, or exit with + pips.

What we want is quick trades....I'd say if we pass 60 mins we are looking for breakeven or close to it (lose the spread) and get out....but don't get out until we reach that.

We exit when we are + pips and we get an opposite candle...so in a long we want straight long candles and exit on the first short candle as long as we are + pips (net)...if it goes too long take breakeven.

If we are up 10 pips exit.

If we take a breakeven or loss..double up on next trade entry...recoup loss and be + pips according to above rules...but take only +10 pips max (i.e. 5 pips because we doubled).

You may have to tweak (recognize a ranging market, trend and oversold) and you can't be greedy but I think you'll find it easy to pick off 20 pips a day like this.
  • #558
  • Nov 17, 2008 7:28am Nov 17, 2008 7:28am
Hi guys, nice updates this weekend this thread looks always really interesting, with those new indicators and all those examples of Spud this system sound's easier to understand,
I'm looking for some good opportunties to sell today, now I see that m1 is below m5 and I'm waiting that m5 cross down m15 and get the signal from the stochm5+15m indicator..let's see after Manufacturing Index how goes
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  • #559
  • Nov 17, 2008 7:29am Nov 17, 2008 7:29am
Quoting Spudfyre
You can't simply trade the indicators.
It doesn't hurt to try! (backtest)


Spud thanks for explaining that, for you insight, and for the best system(s). So far my best results are trading your PMTF stochs with a decent longer term MTF behind it.

FW
Isolate yourself from the herd
  • #560
  • Nov 17, 2008 7:47am Nov 17, 2008 7:47am
ok guys, I got the alert, I'm short at 1.2647..let's see how this trade develop
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