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  • #45,661
  • Nov 16, 2008 5:53pm Nov 16, 2008 5:53pm
I believe not to base your analysis on low volume during the Asian session. However, with the trend still down, I would not bother trying to pick bottoms here and rather wait for retracements to sell.

I'm short from Friday 1.2712
  • #45,662
  • Nov 16, 2008 6:06pm Nov 16, 2008 6:06pm
This Market is so totally messed up but it appears to me that 1.2250 is within reach...
  • #45,663
  • Nov 16, 2008 6:10pm Nov 16, 2008 6:10pm
Quoting tulient
Panic sell?
I dont see what the panic would be about.
Price hit 1.285 which was a 50% fib retracement as well as the top of a downward channel and parity. It is a perfect place to short. So perfect that I am angry I wasnt able to get it.
2850 was also a 1597 EMA (F17 Fibonacci sequence number) on my 15M chart. This EMA has provided strong resistance going back to the end of Sept, which was then end of the counter trend correction.

Whole bunch of EMA's congested around the pivot right now create resistance around 2650 that PA has to punch through. Will be interesting to see what direction PA takes.
  • #45,664
  • Nov 16, 2008 6:14pm Nov 16, 2008 6:14pm
Asia equity markets feeling very vulnerable and weak.... should see eurusd slide down abit towards end of asian session. Wait for HK equity to get direction...

if short term trading, i believe you have to trade the downside bias in this!
  • #45,665
  • Nov 16, 2008 6:14pm Nov 16, 2008 6:14pm
Quoting Bemac
This Market is so totally messed up but it appears to me that 1.2250 is within reach...
My vote for post of the week and the week just started... who's gonna try to top that one? At least in the "succinct" category...
FUBAR...
  • #45,666
  • Nov 16, 2008 6:47pm Nov 16, 2008 6:47pm
EurUsd H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu h4.PNG Size: 23 KB
  • #45,667
  • Nov 16, 2008 7:13pm Nov 16, 2008 7:13pm
1597 length EMA, wooooo
  • #45,668
  • Nov 16, 2008 7:13pm Nov 16, 2008 7:13pm
Quoting habibFx
EurUsd H4
Seeing this chart, it looks like PA will be going to 1.23xx in the next 20 hours or so..
I am currently looking to short around 1.2650...
  • #45,669
  • Nov 16, 2008 7:41pm Nov 16, 2008 7:41pm
The 50% retracement of the current swing high at 1.285 to 1.25 just happens to be right at the weekend gap

Funny how these things happen.

Shorting at 1.2675
  • #45,670
  • Nov 16, 2008 7:53pm Nov 16, 2008 7:53pm
Quoting tulient
The 50% retracement of the current swing high at 1.285 to 1.25 just happens to be right at the weekend gap

Funny how these things happen.

Shorting at 1.2675
How is it right at the weekend gap?

Closed Friday at 1.2602 and opened today at 1.2531

What connection does 1.2675 have to these prices, other than 50% retracement of whole move?
  • #45,671
  • Nov 16, 2008 7:54pm Nov 16, 2008 7:54pm
Quoting SunTrader
1597 length EMA, wooooo
Only 16.64 days on a 15M chart. I look at it mainly for trend change and extreme price action not necessarily for trade entries.

That being said, it made for a very nice short entry that just so happened to coincide with the daily R3, a psych level (2850), and that EMA (1597).

I just trade what I see. I took my exits at 2598 off a bounce of M2 right before Friday's close to avoid holding a position into the weekend.
  • #45,672
  • Nov 16, 2008 7:57pm Nov 16, 2008 7:57pm
Quoting SunTrader
1597 length EMA, wooooo
Pippilot, my accucharts maximum is 1439, I tried it in Mt4 and my pc exploded. I'll have to take your word for it...

Anyway, I've been looking back on the EU 2hr and ginned this up from Friday. As it says on the chart, the turn down for the cross on the pdi and slow_k was already well in progess by the late morning/early PM friday runup to the UTL before the collapse... which is why I let a couple trades go underwater for a bit before they popped back up into profit in the final hour before the close. Was never an "if" for me but "when".

I left them open for the same reason. I don't believe the drop Friday was panic driven so much as it was simple profit taking on a DOW (and related issues) driven spike in the midst of strong downtrend that carried over in to the currency markets. Typical Friday imo, just a little more power than usual maybe.

The Thursday mini rally confused the issue for awhile, but the trail reappeared after a bit. I always worry I missed something important when those things happen and it does accelerate my heart rate sometimes... but that's trading.

That's how I see the trend, and part of the way I trade it.

NOTE: Notice that 2560ish is the 38% fibo, watching to see if it breaks there or no...
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #45,673
  • Nov 16, 2008 8:05pm Nov 16, 2008 8:05pm
Quoting ak4x
Pippilot, my accucharts maximum is 1439, I tried it in Mt4 and my pc exploded. I'll have to take your word for it...
...
See attached image. I use TradeStation for my charting, and can use any value or formula.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU-15M-16NOV08.jpg Size: 201 KB
  • #45,674
  • Nov 16, 2008 8:12pm Nov 16, 2008 8:12pm
Quoting PipPilot
See attached image. I use TradeStation for my charting, and can use any value or formula.
ahhh... I want one of those.

A question ... is that TRO Dynamic thingy connected to you know who?
FUBAR...
  • #45,675
  • Nov 16, 2008 8:19pm Nov 16, 2008 8:19pm
GY/EJ just slammed into ever significant MA on my 15m charts and EU came to within 8 pips of the 15m Bemac 288. Atho these gaps always screw a'rd with them (MA's) for awhile, I'm hazarding a couple small shorts w/30-40 pip sl's for a ride back down aways... (3:1 rr)
FUBAR...
  • #45,676
  • Nov 16, 2008 8:25pm Nov 16, 2008 8:25pm
Quoting PipPilot
Only 16.64 days on a 15M chart. I look at it mainly for trend change and extreme price action not necessarily for trade entries.
Extreme price action I can see and trend change only of a looong term nature. But maybe that is your trading horizon?

When I even look at a MA, which is rarely, I like the 89 EMA.
  • #45,677
  • Nov 16, 2008 8:43pm Nov 16, 2008 8:43pm
Quoting ak4x
ahhh... I want one of those.

A question ... is that TRO Dynamic thingy connected to you know who?
That name which you cannot mention on pretty much any forum, yep. Ol' Avery himself.
  • #45,678
  • Nov 16, 2008 8:50pm Nov 16, 2008 8:50pm
but having a little problem here tonight.... would anyone be so kind to post today's / night's daily pivot and S and R's?

Having some issues this evening, and any help from out there would be appreciated.

Good pips to all today!

Sentinel
  • #45,679
  • Nov 16, 2008 8:52pm Nov 16, 2008 8:52pm
Quoting PipPilot
That name which you cannot mention on pretty much any forum, yep. Ol' Avery himself.
Is the Ru+*pled1 banned on here or something?
  • #45,680
  • Nov 16, 2008 8:59pm Nov 16, 2008 8:59pm
Anyone who left their short over the weekend - you are a gutsy guy, but being heavily rewarded now!

I for one was expecting one more exhaustion spike upwards to get in an awesome short position around 1.2850-1.2950 to ride down this week, but I guess E/U just couldn't wait to resume trend downwards.

Bums me out a little - but oh well, will plan for a new short entry. Hopefully it'll form sometime this week.
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