Trade what you see NOT what you expect | Page 2 | Forex Factory

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Why did you start trading and what do you expect from it? 19 replies

How soon after you put on a trade do you expect to be "in the money"? 28 replies

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Trade What You See And Not What You Hope 0 replies

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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #21
  • Nov 7, 2008 1:35pm Nov 7, 2008 1:35pm
damn i never knew u started a thread....i will read this stuff this weekend...good job
  • #22
  • Nov 7, 2008 1:37pm Nov 7, 2008 1:37pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
damn i never knew u started a thread....i will read this stuff this weekend...good job
I've started it, but I haven't added to it. I pulled my back out on Monday and I've been dealing with pain all week long. Today is the longest I've been able to sit in front of the computer. I'll be adding this weekend so stay tuned!
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #23
  • Nov 10, 2008 1:34am Nov 10, 2008 1:34am
Can't wait bro, as soon as your ready again I'kk be here to do some studying. Good luck with it
please DON'T copy my trades I am still learning
  • #24
  • Nov 13, 2008 1:47am Nov 13, 2008 1:47am
Ok everyone! I'm feeling better and I've got my laptop figured out. I was asked a question earlier about my trades on Tuesday and why I took them when I did. I've attached a chart with answers. If anyone has questions on these trades, please let me know.

Trade well everyone!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.jpg Size: 140 KB
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #25
  • Nov 13, 2008 2:38pm Nov 13, 2008 2:38pm
Quoting eohater
Ok everyone! I'm feeling better and I've got my laptop figured out. I was asked a question earlier about my trades on Tuesday and why I took them when I did. I've attached a chart with answers. If anyone has questions on these trades, please let me know.

Trade well everyone!
Thanks bro.......

It helps me learn faster when I actually see charts!!

HOLLA
  • #26
  • Nov 14, 2008 3:03am Nov 14, 2008 3:03am
do you mind a question, eo?
how can you sell when there's three white soldier on the candles, and i't closing above the MA...
and also for the last trade, where u sell when it's only almost nearly touched the blue line...?
thx
Money management is good for your health...
  • #27
  • Nov 14, 2008 3:23am Nov 14, 2008 3:23am
Quoting 13thheaven
do you mind a question, eo?
how can you sell when there's three white soldier on the candles, and i't closing above the MA...
and also for the last trade, where u sell when it's only almost nearly touched the blue line...?
thx
Good question! The first sell order on my chart your refering to is a time of ranging before the DOW opens. When she's ranging like that, I'm not afraid to sell back into it. She closed a full candle through the 35sma with a small wick. My system tells me to go against her when she's just ranging like this with my SL around 20-25 pips depending upon spread. This is hard for many traders to do. You see it moving hard one direction and you go the other direction. Please note: This entry requires the candle to be closed before entering. DON'T TRY AND PREEMPT HER.

The last trade is a nice trade for whenever you've missed the move and just can't find a seat. Notice how she pulled back between the 10sma and 21ema? If it was early in the breakout, she might only pullback to the 10sma, close and go back in the direction of the breakout. The downward angle of the MA's tell me it's safe to go back into the trade also. Again, you have to wait for the candle to close and order on the opening candle.

I hope this answers your question. If not, please let me know and I'll try to explain further.

Happy trading!
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #28
  • Nov 14, 2008 9:21am Nov 14, 2008 9:21am
wow thx for the great explaination...
but i'm still confused with the explaination of the last trade...
did it come from experience?
and if u don't mind, could u please post the chart with the information about the third trade, cause i don't really understand which MA is the 10 MA
TIA

sorry to bother u with those questions
Money management is good for your health...
  • #29
  • Nov 14, 2008 9:42am Nov 14, 2008 9:42am
Quoting 13thheaven
wow thx for the great explaination...
but i'm still confused with the explaination of the last trade...
did it come from experience?
and if u don't mind, could u please post the chart with the information about the third trade, cause i don't really understand which MA is the 10 MA
TIA

sorry to bother u with those questions
Bro, your questions are not a bother. I want to make sure you see what I'm seeing. A lot of it is from experience. I'll post more charts tonight and this weekend and hopeful be able to explain it better.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #30
  • Edited 11:51am Nov 14, 2008 11:50am | Edited 11:51am
Quoting eohater
Good question!...
I put all those MAs as you posted on the 1st page. And, I still at lost how to use it. I tried use MAs before but the entry always late and by the time I entered it moves against me.

Keep those charts coming...
  • #31
  • Nov 14, 2008 12:39pm Nov 14, 2008 12:39pm
I personally want to thank you for starting this thread. I'm hanging on every word so far, and the charts. I guess I've become a bit of an EO groupie of sorts, in that I follow your advice or at least trust it for the most part because I've seen you make some great calls. Now, I haven't taken a trade based on your calls though, but only because I want to know how and why and make the call myself. That's where I'm at right now, trying to learn and stay in the game just another day and another and another. Besides thanking you for your advice, I'm distracting myself from trading this morning so that I can hold on to my small weekly profit. Anyways,thanks again, I'll be observing for the most part and if I have an epiphanies or anything to add, I'll share occassionally.
therealisttruest (FF wouldn't let me put my full ID because of length)
  • #32
  • Nov 14, 2008 12:47pm Nov 14, 2008 12:47pm
Quoting therealist
I personally want to thank you for starting this thread. I'm hanging on every word so far, and the charts. I guess I've become a bit of an EO groupie of sorts, in that I follow your advice or at least trust it for the most part because I've seen you make some great calls. Now, I haven't taken a trade based on your calls though, but only because I want to know how and why and make the call myself. That's where I'm at right now, trying to learn and stay in the game just another day and another and another. Besides thanking you for your advice, I'm...
Welcome the the thread! That's the goal of this, to show you how to make your own calls and not rely upon someone else. I hope I can convey that in the upcoming posts to help you and others understand what I see and what I'm looking for to take a trade. I'm not 100% right and I'm not afraid to admit it when I make a bad trade. This is hard for some traders to grasp. It's ok to be wrong, it's nothing personal, this is business and everyone should treat it as such. When we're wrong in business with a client, we admit it right? This is the same attitude to have, just in this case, our client is the currency pair we're trading not an actual consumer paying us for goods or services.

Happy trading and I hope you find my posts useful!
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #33
  • Nov 14, 2008 12:48pm Nov 14, 2008 12:48pm
Quoting sipekan
I put all those MAs as you posted on the 1st page. And, I still at lost how to use it. I tried use MAs before but the entry always late and by the time I entered it moves against me.

Keep those charts coming...
I'll have some posts upcoming that should shed some light on the MA's. Remember, their just floating support/resistance. Nothing more and nothing magical.

Happy trading!
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #34
  • Nov 14, 2008 2:01pm Nov 14, 2008 2:01pm
Hey eohater,

Just stopping by to say, I love your thread title .

- Navin
  • #35
  • Nov 15, 2008 1:26am Nov 15, 2008 1:26am
Quoting navin44
Hey eohater,

Just stopping by to say, I love your thread title .

- Navin
Thank you! I hope I provide some valuable information. Please ask questions anytime.

EO
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #36
  • Nov 15, 2008 1:33am Nov 15, 2008 1:33am
Attached is the perfect 1h 62ema setup. You've all heard me say it, 'I love the 1h 62ema!' This setup was idealic on how the long candle before entry closed with a little wick and tight to the EMA. Don't ask, don't question why, don't say to yourself, "It's against the trend", just pull the trigger to go short on the opening of the following candle. This draw down on this trade was only 15 pips and she fell over 200 pips. That's a nice risk:reward ratio!

Please note: Not all 1h 62ema's setup like this one did. There are times she will only run up and touch/near the ema value and run back down. I'll take the entry and manage the movement off the 15m charts once I'm in the market.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 62ema.jpg Size: 131 KB
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #37
  • Nov 15, 2008 3:14pm Nov 15, 2008 3:14pm
Attached is the 15m chart leading up to the 1h 62ema price. She was set up on both the 15m chart and the 1h 62ema chart for the fall. These setups scream at me to take them.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15m.jpg Size: 142 KB
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #38
  • Nov 16, 2008 1:51am Nov 16, 2008 1:51am
Hi eo,

I'm new to trading but have turned into a quick fan of S/R and find your MA concept intriguing, not least from your good calls.

Using this concept of floating S/R, with regards to post #24, my interpretation of the charts on your first trade would have been that the MA resistance have been broken and price might possibly move to the horizontal "Level 2 resistance" and as you explained, it was ranging and I would have shorted there instead. In this case however, am I right to say that you shorted ONLY because of the signal candle which is 1)Long and 2)short wick after 3)a strong move up since this came up a couple of times in your charts. If the signal candle which had broken through the MAs had a longer wick on the top, would you also have shorted on the first trade?

Regarding post #37, could you elaborate more on the reasons behind going long on your missed trade? All I can see is the "doji"/spinning top being sandwiched between the MAs and horizontal support. I can't say I'd take a long before the following long candle had closed.

Lastly, for the horizontal resistance on your 15min, are they drawn from visual inspection or based on the higher timeframe MAs, maybe even a combination of both? For example you might place a horizontal line to mark the 1Hr 62ema and other MAs which hold extra significance in your system on the smaller 15min TF.

I apologise for the long post, it's a bad habit and I just like to be sure. Thanks for helping the community.
I need to put up stop losses.
  • #39
  • Nov 16, 2008 5:54pm Nov 16, 2008 5:54pm
Not only is the 62 very powerful on the 1hr charts but so are the 365 and 150 ema. In my experience these levels hold better than traditional s/r levels and function far far better than floor trader pivots
  • #40
  • Nov 16, 2008 11:30pm Nov 16, 2008 11:30pm
Quoting swap
Hi eo,

I'm new to trading but have turned into a quick fan of S/R and find your MA concept intriguing, not least from your good calls.

Using this concept of floating S/R, with regards to post #24, my interpretation of the charts on your first trade would have been that the MA resistance have been broken and price might possibly move to the horizontal "Level 2 resistance" and as you explained, it was ranging and I would have shorted there instead. In this case however, am I right to say that you shorted ONLY because of the signal...
Hi Swap and thank you for the questions.

Regarding my first trade shown on post #24. You are correct that I did like the long full candle that closed with a little wick. Additionally, I liked that it closed through the 35sma. This setup gives me two different trades: First trade is short and tight SL (20 pips +spread). If she closes me out on the next candle for a loss, no worries, now I wait for a pull back and go long on her at the best price I can get in at. Second trade this setup gives me goes back to my reason for the SL of 20 pips +spread. I'll place a pending long order 20 pips higher than the candles closed price (CLOSED PRICE) and let the market take me in. You need to keep your eye on the higher time frames and how the candles are setting up there as well. As to whether I would have shorted if the candle had a longer wick, yes, but I don't want to see a massive wick on her. I like to see the candles be exhausted when she breaks through the 35 or 50 ma to make me want to chase her back to where she came on the next candle's opening.

Regarding the missed long from post #37. I did like the way the candle that closed through the ma's. I can see why you wouldn't enter long until the next candle closed. But this entry also goes back to my first trade on post #24. I like to keep my SL as tight as possible. Nothing makes me happier than to be able to enter a trade and be in profit in 15min.

The hoizontal resistance/support lines on my charts are drawn from my software. It's using the S/R from the 15m chart only. My higher time frames S/R are for those time frames. I understand what your saying about drawing the higher time frames ma's on my charts, but I like to look at those chart independently. I like to see them all line up. These are homeruns when that happens.

I hope I've answered your questions. Please let me know if you have any more or further explaination.

Trade well!

EO
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
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