Aussie Pairs

River,
gotta run now, so just stopped by to say nice call on that long break out!! ill try to post some things later on today.

Hi,
Any advise on AUS/US for today.
thanks

Here's the update. I am still long out of 7872 area. Price moved up nicely today currently around 7910. I am still looking for 7931. There is certainly nothing wrong with taking your profits on the approach to this level.

My thoughts on this are....that there are likely stops just above the highs over 7931. If we do move up to this area, I would watch for the stops to be taken out on a surge up through this level. I would either take profit or sit tight using the 7931 (yellow zone +1) line as a guide. If price moves back below, cover. If you do stay long, look for 7986, then 8013.

Note that River (equilibrium ) is at 7847 today. Odds of price continuing to move strongly away are less. A surge up through 7931 can also be an execellent place to set shorts for aggressive traders, looking for a move back below 7931. Another way to play it would be to wait for confirmation of price moving back below the 7931 level before establishing shorts. If short, target 7872., then River at 7847.

This is a tough call and playing a short is very aggressive in my opinion. I am likely to take the first scenario of taking profit on a possible surge up through the top. Then watching before either re-establishing longs or getting short. I think there is Wage Price Index data at 0:30 GMT which may give you the opportunity to set up. In any case, we can use 7931 level as our guide.

Good luck and let us know how you make out with your decision.

http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-22-2007.PNG

Here's the 60M levels. Remember the magenta lines change every hour.

http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-21-2007.PNG

Hi,
I'm yet learning ,what you've written is very educative. thanks for your help

http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-23-2007.PNGLevels for 2-23

Here are the AUD levels for 2-26.

I hope everyone had a good weekend and spent some time formulating plans for the upcoming week. We are certainly at some key inflection points in many currencies and the AUDUSD is no different.

We were able to get long last week on the move out of 7872 to our current level. I elected to hold this trade for now, but others may have taken profit since we are so close to the first target level of 7931. Nothing wrong with this, I hope some of you were able to make a little money.

Looking ahead. We may test the 7931 level. This will be my focus early on. If we move through this level and settle above, fresh longs can be established and we should see a run up to test the 7990, the 8013 mark. Likely strong option defense here. This is the true test for further upside. My goal will be to be on board this test from the long I establish at 7872 level. This would give me room to watch the action up above.

I am still looking for a surge through the 7931 level. A failure here and we may move down to our River level at 7872, 7849.

I remain bullish at the moment, but we will likely have a key test fairly early in the week. Again 7931 the key to either view at the moment.

Good luck this week mates.

Don't forget to check the website for an update on the longer term price distribution later today. You will see that this pair is at the top end of the monthly curve. This means we have to get some new buyers to push on up. Not an easy task. Don't forget to check this to get a feel for where you are in flow. Don't drift around in the Ocean without a plan, sharks might eat you.


http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-26-2007.PNG

Here are the daily River Levels for 2-27

I am going to post the updates this way from now on. It is much less time consuming for me. We can continue to discuss the set ups here.

Good morning everyone. I regret to inform you that I have been asked to stop the links to the website where I am posting the trades. The people here feel I am leeching prospective traffic awayfrom this website. I am not totally sure what they mean since I made the web to supplement the post here, but none the less I will respect and honor the request.

I will no longer be posting here. It is just too time consuming for me to do it any other way. I do plan to continue my efforts at my blog and I will still keep my journal thread open to help. I just won't be able to post charts all the time.

Good luck to you and I hope I have helped you become a better trader.

All the best,
DRT

Here's a daily chart, showing a double top with a lower close on yesterday's candle, also there is a significant resistance at .7920-40 level. However today's candle is becoming a doji so we might see a retracement to the upside before heading lower to the lower boundary of the expanding triangle. It is possible that price will react to the blue long term trendline. I'll be looking into entering a short once I see some retracement from yesterday's decline. The stop loss will be above the .7920-40 level, making it a small risk trade. What do you think?

My view on this pair remains the same. I am staying long above 7843. Targets are 7910, then 7977. Only a daily close below 7814 would cancel my bullish bias.

I like your thoughts on this though. Go with your views, not mine.

Well, my view could be entirely wrong, and instead, now would be a perfect long entry on this pullback. Therefore nothing is certain right now.

Aud/usd: 1.7830

Exit here at 1.7830(the short at 7890) and as per my calculations...

My expected long around at 1.7813~1.7800 with s/l at around 7770...twt..

AUDUSD 3-2

Please note the changes in both static and dynamic leves for tommorrow and update your charts accordingly. A new River level has been established. We can discuss this further in the forum area.
Yesterday we recommended establishing new longs in the 7843 area. The market gave us the opportunity to buy today. Targets are 7910, then 7977. Our risk would be on a significant daily close below the Trasition Level of 7843.


The current 7853/7843 zone is the key to current demand or further supply here.

A move and below this area would indicate further downside. Aggressive traders can establish shorts on a move through this area with risk above River at 7856. Targets are 7792, then 7740 where shorts should cover.


Only a daily close below Trasition would cancel my short term bullish bias.


BULLISH WHILE TRADING ABOVE TRANSITION AT 7843


http://downrivertrader.squarespace.c...203-2-2007.PNG

Downriver :

Execellent signals --thanks.

However My openion(only mine!!).

Aud should move down upto : 1.7795~75 area and a reversal expected their..Need confirmation to enter long their..further confirmations...

Right now this pair's in an interesting situation. It's at the key support of .7800-15. Depending on whether it will hold or not, we should either see a test of the blue rising trendline (at around .7730-40), or a reversal upwards toward .7940 level. It will be interesting to see which side it will choose.

zawodowiec

Want a little confirmation on the blue line trend?

Try to connect the 12 Nov 06 low, with the 30 Jan 07 low, and the 12 Fev 07 low! What do you see? Perfect Match. Sub Trend leaning towards the Major trend. If the price gets down there at a moderate pace its almost a milimetric thouch between price and the 2 trend lines.

I dont know if you didnt noticed that sub trend but if not, you can drawn it now and show here the probable cross between the two.

Im just in a learning fase, im not telling nothing about market enters, its just an observation training.

Price touched the trendline you mentioned. Interesting to see what happens now.

I entered short at 0.7790 and got out at 0.7740

The price seems to have slowed down, but it could be only profit taking. In the hourly chart it looks like a normal retraction. If someone wants a little more "juice" from the orange, i would advise to get out if the price gets above 0.7750. This is a Titanium level. No one breaks Titanium if doesnt have a major strengh to do it. Remember that we are suposed to be conservative. (trends are up)

Dont get me wrong. I mentioned the trend line for profit taking not for long enters. For now looks good.

The US data at 10 EST will tell us something. I dont rely on fundamentals in my trading but it sure breaks trend lines where they are close to them.

On Thursday and Friday the 7843 buy zone was tested as I set up longs here looking for a move up. This did not occur and Friday closed below River and Transition where longs should have covered.


I commented that the 7843 Transition Level was the key to the next move down. I was looking to establish shorts on a pullback this level, which did not occur. As a result, I missed the entire Zone -1 move down. Price has reached the static Zone -1 level of 7740.


I have established longs on the surge through this level, targeting 7792 and possibly a move to River. My risk is either a significant intraday move through the 7740 area or a significant daily close below this level

I would not set up longs until the 7740 level proves a wrong level for demand and this has not occurred as of yet. We can take a closer look in tommorrow's update.

BEARISH WHILE BELOW RIVER AT 7837


http://downrivertrader.squarespace.c...203-5-2007.PNG

Looks like we may see some resolution in the upcoming weeks as far as this pair is concerned. Either a new high above the resistance line, or break of the trendline which has held pretty well recently. Against further upward action is the fact that a triple top may be forming, while on the other hand the pair is making higher lows, which should result in the upside breakout. Lets see what happens.