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  • #45,341
  • Nov 13, 2008 9:37pm Nov 13, 2008 9:37pm
what i like you can ask for 5 pips and maybe get 30
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,342
  • Nov 13, 2008 9:46pm Nov 13, 2008 9:46pm
a lot of bank orders are turned in at that time. they must get out their positions before days end. i think some of them are banks and it gives a little indication of direction.. for the price to move 10 50 pips in such a short time has to have a lot of cash behind it..but what do i know..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,343
  • Nov 13, 2008 9:48pm Nov 13, 2008 9:48pm
I previously posted the Fibonacci pivots indicator "PriorDayFiboPivots.mq4" which was an enhancement to an indicator posted by another member. I have subsequently further upgraded the indicator. Fibonacci levels (pivots) based solely on the prior day HLC data, are remarkably accurate predictors of areas where price may pause & run, or stop & reverse.

This indicator has added features. The user can select individual line colors, style of lines, thickness of solid lines, color of labels, font size, bold font, and adjustment of labels left & right on the chart. The user can also select to show the prior day OHLC data (off by default). If selected it appears on the line directly below the data for the current day, and in the same format. For use on high timeframe charts, such as the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily the user can select to change the data base from the previous day data to the previous week data. Two additional levels are included.

Solid line thickness choices do not interfere with use of non-solid lines, which can now be selected without having to undo your solid line thickness setting.

The EUR/USD 4 hour chart attached has a "thumbs up" pointing to where the PriorDay OHLC data is displayed, should you choose to do so.

I have renamed the indicator FibLevels.mq4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ed 4 hour #1 on 11-13-2008.gif Size: 43 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 FibLevels.mq4   8 KB | 342 downloads
  • #45,344
  • Nov 13, 2008 9:59pm Nov 13, 2008 9:59pm
Quoting FXraider
Hi Cobra

Just to check with u, why u did not enter based on the previous peak (circle in yellow) since there is also a cross of cyan line on hull and cloud, and PA below cloud?
Also, after you watch for a while, you will get used to the "nice looking" setups. Even if you take one that looks good but turns out to be bad, the indicators quickly tell you that so you can decide to exit, if you want to, before you hit your SL. However, sometimes it turns back favorably, so be attentive.
  • #45,345
  • Nov 13, 2008 10:10pm Nov 13, 2008 10:10pm
Quoting traderathome
I previously posted the Fibonacci pivots indicator "PriorDayFiboPivots.mq4" which was an enhancement to an indicator posted by another member. I have subsequently further upgraded the indicator. ...
Thank you very much!
  • #45,346
  • Nov 13, 2008 10:24pm Nov 13, 2008 10:24pm
Quoting traderathome
I previously posted the Fibonacci pivots indicator "PriorDayFiboPivots.mq4" which was an enhancement to an indicator posted by another member. I have subsequently further upgraded the indicator. Fibonacci levels (pivots) based solely on the prior day HLC data, are remarkably accurate predictors of areas where price may pause & run, or stop & reverse.

This indicator has added features. The user can select individual line colors, style of lines, thickness of solid lines, color of labels, font size, bold font, and adjustment of labels left & right...
Great post TraderatHome. Thanks for the effort, and for sharing.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #45,347
  • Nov 13, 2008 10:25pm Nov 13, 2008 10:25pm
does anyone consider that last spikes failure indication for bearish? or is it to early?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,348
  • Nov 13, 2008 10:34pm Nov 13, 2008 10:34pm
Quoting ak4x
I have a slightly different perspective on that right now.

According to this weekly chart covering the last 3 weeks minus tonite and tomorrow, we are dead in the water neutral within maybe a couple dozen pips. We just had a very exciting adrenaline fueled rush... and need to purge the toxins a little more.

Some bush pilot friends of mine always answer the "what's it like?" tourist questions about flying in the mountains hundreds of miles from anywhere with this answer ... "hours and hours of boredom, interrupted by a few minutes of sheer...
To summarize, hold on to your f'ing hat

And yes AK, I ranted
Not all sins are created equal
  • #45,349
  • Nov 13, 2008 10:35pm Nov 13, 2008 10:35pm
Starting to look the rocket is returning to earth...

Btw, remember those quarter pivots? Ther's one right at 2740, between the DP and M3... slap a line there on the 1hr chart and ask yourself... "how did I forget that?
FUBAR...
  • #45,350
  • Nov 13, 2008 10:40pm Nov 13, 2008 10:40pm
Quoting Jay Walker
To summarize, hold on to your f'ing hat

And yes AK, I ranted
be back in a few then. slap me if this thing does something ill mannered.


GY is tiptoeing on the 15m 50ema right now.Break that and down we go. This evenings move seems to have been GU fueled, and that bus is starting to sputter it looks like, which should let us get back to bizness..

I give it 3 minutes to pip or get off the pot.
FUBAR...
  • #45,351
  • Nov 13, 2008 10:43pm Nov 13, 2008 10:43pm
Quoting ak4x
be back in a few then. slap me if this thing does something ill mannered.


GY is tiptoeing on the 15m 50ema right now.Break that and down we go. This evenings move seems to have been GU fueled, and that bus is starting to sputter it looks like, which should let us get back to bizness..

I give it 3 minutes to pip or get off the pot.
Ill mannered? That thing has been misbehaved enough today but now it's as if it was frozen solid.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #45,352
  • Nov 13, 2008 10:43pm Nov 13, 2008 10:43pm
50ema BUSTED on Gy...

Somebody erase those blasted lines!!
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #45,353
  • Nov 13, 2008 10:49pm Nov 13, 2008 10:49pm
damn i missed the train eur/usd and gbp/usd. thank god for a 67 pip trade on eur/aud..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,354
  • Nov 13, 2008 10:50pm Nov 13, 2008 10:50pm
Traders,

While I was watching the grass grow tonight, I decided to make myself useful checking out some of Acumen's claims. I decided to do some back-testing of his beloved psychological levels. For the purpose of my tests, I used only xx00, xx20, xx50, and xx80. I wanted to determine if I could consistently count on "bounces" for positive PIPs. If so, and if I could establish a reliable Stop Loss number, I figured I could put in some "pending" orders, either buy limits or sell limits usually, set trailing stop loss to 15, and leave the Take Profit paramer blank - meaning that I want to let the trade run until it retreats and gets stopped out by my trailing stop.

Well, I back-tested about 30 occurrences of price hitting one of these four prominent psychs. Results were as follows:
- 26 successful trades (profit ranged from 3 PIPs to 132 PIPS!)
- Reliable Stop Loss seems to be about 15
- 4 unsuccessful trades, meaning that I got stopped out for the entire 15 PIPs

The win/loss and risk/reward ratios were such that I felt comfortable trading a very small lot size on my live account. It's about bedtime here so I only executed three trades tonight. My first trade (looking for bounce off 2750) resulted in a 15 PIP loss. Oh shxt! But - my very next trade (bounce off 2780) resulted in a profit of 30 PIPs; it in fact would have netted me 54 PIPs if I had left the Stop Loss blank, but I had it set at 2750 TP. In the future, I would leave TP blank and rely solely on the Trailer, I think. My next trade netted me 14 PIPs. It did not reach my TSL, but since I was watching it, I closed it out in time, with 14 profit.

Bottom line - I believe that, as Acumen has said many times, these prominent psychs can be "money in the bank" with a great risk/reward ratio. Before you take my advice and start trading them though, make yourself a form, do some back-testing over a few days (suggest that you use M1 timeframe), record your results so that you can review and gain confidence in them - and then if you get the same kind of results I did, supplement your existing system with these psychs.

Key things to remember:
- Use smaller than normal lot sizes (so you'll feel better about the inevitable losses)
- Use no more than 15 Stop Loss
- Use TSL=15
- Don't be afraid to give the trade time to "develop"
- Let profits run, but monitor; so that you can pull the plug if you feel the urge - believe me it's more rewarding to let it run
- Back-test a big sample from numerous days to gain confidence

I don't like to post a lot of recommendations, because I'm afraid that my inexperience might cost traders money, but I did think it safe to corroborate what Acumen's been telling us for months.

I hope this helps someone.
Ed

P.S. Every time I've taken the time to really study price action and back-test ideas, I have become a better, smarter, more profitable trader.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #45,355
  • Nov 13, 2008 11:01pm Nov 13, 2008 11:01pm
Quoting SpecialEd
... Bottom line - I believe that, as Acumen has said many times, these prominent psychs can be "money in the bank" with a great risk/reward ratio...
It's the simple things that people always want to complicate... when you just leave them simple, it's amazing.

great post there short bus...
FUBAR...
  • #45,356
  • Nov 13, 2008 11:08pm Nov 13, 2008 11:08pm
Quoting SpecialEd
Traders,

While I was watching the grass grow tonight, I decided to make myself useful checking out some of Acumen's claims. I decided to do some back-testing of his beloved psychological levels. For the purpose of my tests, I used only xx00, xx20, xx50, and xx80. I wanted to determine if I could consistently count on "bounces" for positive PIPs. If so, and if I could establish a reliable Stop Loss number, I figured I could put in some "pending" orders, either buy limits or sell limits usually, set trailing stop loss to 15, and leave the Take...
Thanks for doing that. I incorporate that strategy in my trading as well. I knew it worked well but those stats are real impressive. Good job!
  • #45,357
  • Nov 13, 2008 11:27pm Nov 13, 2008 11:27pm
EU H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 14Nov08 H1.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #45,358
  • Nov 13, 2008 11:30pm Nov 13, 2008 11:30pm
Here's a great example of some of the GY indi's I'm gradually bring over to my other MT4 charts.

Chart is 15m GY. The light dotted blue line is a 5sma Close.
Black is 200s, red is 50e, and orange is 62e, all the usual cast.

Price busted thru the 50 by 25 pips or so 5.5 minutes after the 10:45 CST candle closed. It then retraced like it often does when the power is low to precisley the 38% level of that last little move down, also the 5sma.

I won't even be shocked if it jumps up to the 50% level before resuming. GY is like that being a GBP thing. I'm looking for the next attempt to ease on thru now that the door is open.

These last few weeks have been so furious, I'm finding it annoying to slow down my expectations for price. The lack of power is a good reason to stay out, unless you're entering at an extreme price level, like a retracement top or dip bottom if you're bullish or whatever.

I've got my stops set and will be back in awhile. this kind of PA is really fatiguing. It's an edge robber. later.
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #45,359
  • Nov 14, 2008 12:01am Nov 14, 2008 12:01am
One more eu chart for the evening, A daily to ponder as tomorrow unfolds. I couldn't fit the word "consecutive" in front of FAILED, so just imagine it.

Should be self explanatory. I forgot to put my bright red arrow on it tho...pointing down. down down.
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #45,360
  • Nov 14, 2008 12:17am Nov 14, 2008 12:17am
Quoting ak4x
One more eu chart for the evening, A daily to ponder as tomorrow unfolds. I couldn't fit the word "consecutive" in front of FAILED, so just imagine it.

Should be self explanatory. I forgot to put my bright red arrow on it tho...pointing down. down down.
Been staring at that thing all day. Don't make me cry
Not all sins are created equal
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