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  • #5,761
  • Nov 13, 2008 1:50pm Nov 13, 2008 1:50pm
Sure, linalm. I'm at work at the moment and won't be home for a few hours, but I will try to scan the page from my notebook last night if I can to give you an idea of what I'm looking at and thinking.

It is a little hectic looking and if it is too hard to read I'll just re-write what I had in another format.

And... wow! The market just went from new 2008 and daily lows, to jumping almost 550 points and being up +240 (on the DOW).
  • #5,762
  • Nov 13, 2008 3:01pm Nov 13, 2008 3:01pm
Find me the guy that saw this one coming today......you know that rule I was talking about 3 consecutive downcloses I would say played out pretty well here.
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  • #5,763
  • Nov 13, 2008 3:05pm Nov 13, 2008 3:05pm
Quoting ernesto
Hi BRV,
one question regarding planning... from your personal experience point of view... how many pairs should a trader focus on planning and trading @ maximum?

Reason for my question: for a period of time I also planned like crazy... for many different pairs. The problem with that is that one (at least me) looses the overview you need to execute the trades... Furthermore one starts heavily thinking about the interdependence of all pairs... when using too many pairs this can be very confusing...
Hi ernesto, Just a handful.....I focus primarily on the major 4, and then EJ if anything is so obvious. I used to regularly monitor more but not really anymore. And set alerts.....they pay off big. You're right....too much and you lose focus. Plenty of opportunities just on 2 of these in any given day. In fact realistically if I just traded EU and GU every single day I probably wouldnt notice much of a big difference. Too much can overwhelm you in terms of daytrading for sure. I agree.
  • #5,764
  • Edited 3:32pm Nov 13, 2008 3:22pm | Edited 3:32pm
Hi all,

I notice a few people have been talking about planning their day by identifying all the relevant price points that may come into play as the day progresses. I fully agree that this is a great habit to get into. It really helps clarify what you need to look for as the day progresses. One other thing that i believe is a great help to new & experienced traders alike; is to have a fully documented trade plan. Just producing a written plan yourself really helps drive home what your strategy includes and also helps clarify what trades you should be looking for day-in day-out.

So with this in mind I thought I would attach one of my old trade plans that I produced when trading a different strategy (quite some time back). I got various images from different websites and I'm sure many people will recognize many of the graphics

The strategy outlined does have some similarities with this thread but it by no means should be considered as a trade plan for "No-Brainer-Trades". It uses MA's & the odd oscillator, so please just use it as an example.

I just want to add to this great thread and hopefully these 2 documents may help people get an idea of how they can document their own trade plan.

I originally started creating the trade plan as a simple 1-2 page document but for some reason I got on a roll and created a much bigger document, so I then followed it up with the 1 pager, hence 2 separate documents.

I hope someone finds this of use and if you do, feel free to pass it on.

Don't forget, once you have produced a plan, read it often to help keep you focused on your trading strategy.

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Supply-Demand AND Trend Trading Detailed Trade Plan.pdf   166 KB | 5,499 downloads


Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Supply-Demand AND Trend Trading Trade Plan Summary.pdf   8 KB | 876 downloads
  • #5,765
  • Nov 13, 2008 3:40pm Nov 13, 2008 3:40pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Find me the guy that saw this one coming today......you know that rule I was talking about 3 consecutive downcloses I would say played out pretty well here.
Well I'm interested in others thoughts/opinions, as here's one of the "theories" I've seen around this big bounce:

The SEC's 13F rule requires money managers with more than $100 million in stocks to disclose all holdings each quarter.
What's the strategy here? Well... all HF managers will examine other HF's to see who has the big long or short positions. They'll add up all the holdings and see who is vulnerable to a short attack or a short squeeze. Then they will figure out the weak hands and pile on against them to push them to bankruptcy.
It's very much of a wolf-pack attack mentality.

Guess we'll see as things hopefully return to a more normal state.
  • #5,766
  • Nov 13, 2008 4:51pm Nov 13, 2008 4:51pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
......you know that rule I was talking about 3 consecutive downcloses I would say played out pretty well here.
What is that rule, BRV? I don't recall reading about it. Thanks.
  • #5,767
  • Nov 13, 2008 7:12pm Nov 13, 2008 7:12pm
I believe the rule is after three consecutive down closes you expect a fairly large bounce.

Don't think anyone expected that after the market started off so poorly, though...

Also, the links Moxy_UK posted were good in terms of in-depth technical execution of a plan... my notes are just some stuff I scribbled on my notebook about key price levels. It's very simple and rudimentary (after all, I'm just trying to write down some thoughts, and "KISS" is a great motto), but I'll try to post it anyways.
  • #5,768
  • Nov 13, 2008 7:52pm Nov 13, 2008 7:52pm
Hi linalm,

Here is a (admittedly messy!) scan of the first page of my notes. There was a second page, but this gives you the basic idea of what I was doing, and what I was thinking.

To give you a little more information: I clear my charts nightly, but some levels obviously get previously redrawn. This is the first thing I do, because this is the framework of my trading. Next, I check out what is going on in the markets: equities, gold, oil, other FX pairs, etc. I also read bloomberg, and check out IFR to see what they're saying, also to see what levels they have marked up.

As for the notes, like I said, they are just some scribbled info that I'm thinking and want to make sure I have in my head when a level approaches. Yes, they're very basic, but they give me an idea of what I want to be looking for when the levels approach, and they also ensure that I be patient and wait for the trades to come to me, instead of going after them. Of course sometimes new levels develop over the day, especially over short time frames, but hopefully this helps.

I also keep the levels on my chart, but I try not to overdue it because clutter sucks. I usually don't keep fibos on my chart, but I do use them when they add to confluence.
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  • #5,769
  • Nov 13, 2008 9:26pm Nov 13, 2008 9:26pm
hi smittens,

thanks alot for sharing.. i wanted to ask u for ur plan too but u disabled e-mail and pm function..

quick question..
- how do u go about determining ur KEY LEVELS and;
- as well as 1st and 2nd TARGETS - a scenario wud b best. briefly explain?

1000x thanks~
  • #5,770
  • Nov 13, 2008 9:56pm Nov 13, 2008 9:56pm
Quoting smittens4212
Hi linalm,

Here is a (admittedly messy!) scan of the first page of my notes. There was a second page, but this gives you the basic idea of what I was doing, and what I was thinking.

....

Thank you so very much!!! A visual is definitely worth more than a thousand words.

THANK YOU, again.
  • #5,771
  • Nov 13, 2008 10:36pm Nov 13, 2008 10:36pm
Quoting Knightz
hi smittens,

thanks alot for sharing.. i wanted to ask u for ur plan too but u disabled e-mail and pm function..

quick question..
- how do u go about determining ur KEY LEVELS and;
- as well as 1st and 2nd TARGETS - a scenario wud b best. briefly explain?

1000x thanks~
My key levels are basically support & resistance levels on the chart drawn up which I think are going to be appropriate given the environment. For example, yesterday I was looking for some retracement from the dying out downtrend, so I highlighted levels below the price to determine where I might want to fade. Then I figure out what I want to see happen when the price is hit-- a strong quick rejection of the price? A quick breakthrough of it? Etc. I look at what further support levels there are to see where I could place stop losses outside, and look to reasonable S&R levels for targets.
  • #5,772
  • Nov 13, 2008 10:54pm Nov 13, 2008 10:54pm
pretty amazing how well price behaves sometimes.I see stuff like this and wonder why I am stumbling threw my trading.I am going to start writing down a trading plan everyday now.The old fashion way.(a piece of paper and a pencil) just as you did smittens.
Being prepared is half the battle,I go in like a loose cannon looking for what ever I can trade.I really do see why there is such a high failure rate.This comes back to one of steves blog posts http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2008/...rading-fx.html

It is just an easy trap to fall into!
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  • #5,773
  • Nov 13, 2008 11:09pm Nov 13, 2008 11:09pm
Hello Steve,
I was out for the day to come back to see the eur on steriods!,missed that one.I am just dropping a quick note to ya.Thanks again for you putting up with a lot of us newbies.You are saving people a lot of time and money in this learning process.I am not trying to sound ungrateful the least bit....but the other day you put up a trade you took. Along with what you were seeing on the chart,your fundie outlook and all that good stuff.
I know for myself that was pretty helpful.I am sure others got some insight from that as well.Maybe you could throw one up ever couple days like that?
LIke I said not being ungrateful the least bit,just think it might help you explain to us little guys what goes on in that head of yours.Something good is going on in there LOL!!!Good trading to you Steve.Have a goodnight.
  • #5,774
  • Nov 13, 2008 11:22pm Nov 13, 2008 11:22pm
Quoting jlmac27
pretty amazing how well price behaves sometimes.I see stuff like this and wonder why I am stumbling threw my trading.I am going to start writing down a trading plan everyday now.The old fashion way.(a piece of paper and a pencil) just as you did smittens....
Nice catch. I just grabbed 50 pips on a small down trendline on the EURUSD H1.
  • #5,775
  • Nov 13, 2008 11:59pm Nov 13, 2008 11:59pm
Good trading and discussions lately. Anyone see some good trades coming up for the London/NY session?
  • #5,776
  • Nov 14, 2008 12:01am Nov 14, 2008 12:01am
Hi,
These are potential bucket trades.
What would be the normal bucket line from which the fade will start in your opinion.
Sometimes if you miss 10 pips you miss the fade.
So give me your winning numbers .


smittens4212,
Thanks for sharing your plan. Learned a lot.
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  • #5,777
  • Edited 12:34am Nov 14, 2008 12:24am | Edited 12:34am
Ady27,

Thanks for screenshots. For the USD/CAD 1.2252 seems to be a good level. It seems to have significance on the hourly as well. I'm no expert and I'm open to criticism, just my thoughts on it.
  • #5,778
  • Nov 14, 2008 1:00am Nov 14, 2008 1:00am
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Hi Libb, you said you welcome remark and this is only one I have time for as am off for while. I like 1.2300 a little more, but really like buy at 1.2007. I can see what you are looking at but am wary of selling usd unless it goes back up to 1.2441 as this is Friday and who knows where they want usd to finish. I am so wary of what usd does that I will wait for the buy lower. I would still look at aussie .6480 bor buy which was last nights area I wanted to buy from, and that is all I am interested in at moment. good luck with your trading tonight. lots of euro announcements coming up later and red alert chattering from various entities as well during NY. another reason I will be careful.
  • #5,779
  • Nov 14, 2008 1:02am Nov 14, 2008 1:02am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Main reason I use them is because I know theyre so heavily monitored by institutional players, market movers......the bigger they are the better. again I got for 'everyone on the same page'....fibs allow you to do that.
Yup, so one must pay attention to them as it's the wise thing to do...
  • #5,780
  • Nov 14, 2008 2:28am Nov 14, 2008 2:28am
Coming up to 650-672 on EURUSD which looks like a good reaction point over the past few weeks. Now it's not steaming through the levels like it did last night, may see a good bounce off this.
Also, 652 is 50% of the mental leg up last night.
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