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  • #5,741
  • Nov 13, 2008 11:25am Nov 13, 2008 11:25am
Quoting Greenhaze
Eur/Usd
Yeah there's a lot of good levels up here if it can ever make it.....the ones you have here being some of them.....selling pressure has been pretty deep though lately - weird day today - spx is consolidated and pairs showing pretty much the same.....but I'm looking for a sell and hold, esp on eur but havent found my footings yet. I keep on getting into these 60-100 pip scalps and seeing it fail again. Wish me luck
  • #5,742
  • Nov 13, 2008 11:39am Nov 13, 2008 11:39am
BRV, last night was the first night I began writing down a plan, highlighting key levels and what I'd be looking for in other markets, targets, contingency plans, everything. Suffice to say it did wonders for my confidence as almost every level I wrote about was hit and followed what I expected given the conditions at the time. I can now see why you do this daily. It got rid of a lot of the clutter in my mind and allowed me to focus on what could be high % trades, not to mention increasing my patience. I only followed and wrote about the EURUSD (of course the Nikkei was a big part of this) to keep things simple for the time being, but hopefully I will expand that into other pairs I feel comfortable with as I improve the efficiency of my analysis and don't get too overloaded with information.
  • #5,743
  • Nov 13, 2008 11:47am Nov 13, 2008 11:47am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Yeah there's a lot of good levels up here if it can ever make it.....the ones you have here being some of them.....selling pressure has been pretty deep though lately - weird day today - spx is consolidated and pairs showing pretty much the same.....but I'm looking for a sell and hold, esp on eur but havent found my footings yet. I keep on getting into these 60-100 pip scalps and seeing it fail again. Wish me luck
This day left me frustrated becouse i gave to the market yesterdays profits trying to scalp intraday. I made 2 trades and both were losers. I ask myself now , why did i enter? becouse of greed instead of clear oportunity. In today market i wasnt able to recognize the best trades and i lost my mindset.

2 Babole:
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  • #5,744
  • Nov 13, 2008 12:06pm Nov 13, 2008 12:06pm
Quoting smittens4212
BRV, last night was the first night I began writing down a plan, highlighting key levels and what I'd be looking for in other markets, targets, contingency plans, everything. Suffice to say it did wonders for my confidence as almost every level I wrote about was hit and followed what I expected given the conditions at the time. I can now see why you do this daily. It got rid of a lot of the clutter in my mind and allowed me to focus on what could be high % trades, not to mention increasing my patience. I only followed and wrote about the EURUSD...

Good stuff....yeah, it does wonders, atleast for me and Ive found for many others. Newer traders overlook it but seriously when I do it my numbers are tenfold. Even if your levels dont pay off immediately you're newer intraday levels get executed with a ton of more confidence. The biggest baddest trader I've ever known plans like crazy (and I mean crazy) and he's worth, literally, billions. Something to be said about that.
  • #5,745
  • Nov 13, 2008 12:07pm Nov 13, 2008 12:07pm
hi BRV
do you think it is good to buy on support when the trend is down like EU now ? isnt against the saying the trend is your friend when we buy on a support and we are against the trend ?
regards
  • #5,746
  • Nov 13, 2008 12:14pm Nov 13, 2008 12:14pm
is any one here the resident fib expert. i used to think its not worth it. but after brv said he has found some value in it i gave it another look. if some one likes fibs tell me your take on eur/chf today. my fib work nailed it to the pip this recent sell-off. however, my work was unconventional. someone please give it a look. and if you come up with the same conclusion as me i know i'm not nuts
  • #5,747
  • Nov 13, 2008 12:22pm Nov 13, 2008 12:22pm
Ironman, who contributed a lot towards the pdf, used fibs a lot. He hasn't been around in ages though, and his blog appeared to be down last time I checked it.

I use them sparingly, but always check them to see any confluence on longer term levels.
  • #5,748
  • Nov 13, 2008 12:25pm Nov 13, 2008 12:25pm
Quoting Guerrillawar
is any one here the resident fib expert. i used to think its not worth it. but after brv said he has found some value in it i gave it another look. if some one likes fibs tell me your take on eur/chf today. my fib work nailed it to the pip this recent sell-off. however, my work was unconventional. someone please give it a look. and if you come up with the same conclusion as me i know i'm not nuts
Theres a piece about fib levels in the blog in the trading strategy area.....I think its buried somewhere in this thread too.......just basics covered.....alot of those articles Im trying to expand on theyre all pretty relatively short but the idea is there.
  • #5,749
  • Nov 13, 2008 12:26pm Nov 13, 2008 12:26pm
Quoting smittens4212
Ironman, who contributed a lot towards the pdf, used fibs a lot. He hasn't been around in ages though, and his blog appeared to be down last time I checked it.

I use them sparingly, but always check them to see any confluence on longer term levels.
yeah me to i never was really into them. but take a look at eur/chf its a pure beauty. please see if you come to the same conclusion
  • #5,750
  • Nov 13, 2008 12:28pm Nov 13, 2008 12:28pm
Quoting imad
hi BRV
do you think it is good to buy on support when the trend is down like EU now ? isnt against the saying the trend is your friend when we buy on a support and we are against the trend ?
regards

On a day like today Im extra cautious of buys. SPX is making a new low today and just very risky trade in general. Ive been short GBP......my mentality when it comes to days like today is be there or be square, and if you miss the move, dont worry about it. Another will come soon enough. But dont try to shove the round peg in the square hole, if you know what I mean.
  • #5,751
  • Nov 13, 2008 12:30pm Nov 13, 2008 12:30pm
Quoting Guerrillawar
yeah me to i never was really into them. but take a look at eur/chf its a pure beauty. please see if you come to the same conclusion
Main reason I use them is because I know theyre so heavily monitored by institutional players, market movers......the bigger they are the better. again I got for 'everyone on the same page'....fibs allow you to do that.
  • #5,752
  • Nov 13, 2008 12:44pm Nov 13, 2008 12:44pm
...sorry for interrrupting. I have been following this group for a few days only but figured out there are a few smart players out there (apart from BRV...BRV!...congrats for this amazing thread) and trading in the same approach as I do....

Anyone shorted EUR/GBP? I will sell another tranche when it goes to 85.80 SL@ 86.40 (which is 2xATR daily 8days average and in99% of moves never reached) TP 84.60 and lower....this baby is ripe for harvest. Time is good now b'cause NY is getting exhausted...and price may fall back into range.
Some pals out here are familiar with TomDeMark strategies (...and that's one reason why I like this chatroom) and according to his observations, price might retrace 68% (fib) from the second leg once top has formed around 85.80!!! I aaaaaaammmmm sellling that BAAAABYYY....
It's now 19.42 Gmt+2

Cheers guys and wish you the best life has to offer..
Brad_Pip
  • #5,753
  • Nov 13, 2008 12:46pm Nov 13, 2008 12:46pm
GW,

I use Fibs a lot; have for years and have a great deal of respect for them. Actually learned from Larry Pesavento, IMHO, the best practitioner trading today.

Re: the E/C, I would not draw the Fibs as you did. I would only draw them from a clearly identified Swing high or low. Having said that, clearly people take great license with their use and dont suffer too much. IMO, the Fibs don't dictate; they confirm. In other words, I use them to confirm and add confluence to a level that is primarily tradable because of S+R as in this trade.

As I hope you can see in the attached chart, I previously had this level (1.5034) marked. I drew a Fib from yesterdays daily high to yesterday's daily low and noted the Extended Retracement of 138% was coinciding very closely with the 1.5034 level. That was the confirmation.

Hope this helps.

Seattlerust
Attached Image
  • #5,754
  • Nov 13, 2008 12:55pm Nov 13, 2008 12:55pm
Quoting seattlerust
GW,

I use Fibs a lot; have for years and have a great deal of respect for them. Actually learned from Larry Pesavento, IMHO, the best practitioner trading today.

Re: the E/C, I would not draw the Fibs as you did. I would only draw them from a clearly identified Swing high or low. Having said that, clearly people take great license with their use and dont suffer too much. IMO, the Fibs don't dictate; they confirm. In other words, I use them to confirm and add confluence to a level that is primarily tradable because of S+R as in this trade....
hay nice to talk you, I respect larry a lot. He is an all around great person. And just a storehouse of knowledge. He is one sharp guy when he comes to the market. I know he is much more than a fib guy more a market geometry guy. any way my number was similar 1.5039 very similar to you. I got it in a totally different way but same number all the same. post some charts while your here if you studied under larry that gets a lot of respect in my book.
  • #5,755
  • Nov 13, 2008 1:01pm Nov 13, 2008 1:01pm
...sorry again...forgot to mention that we we are close to 161.8 fib extension of the last move from 8143 to 8412 and a major pivot point 20.00h (Frankfurt time) gmt+1 .According to Steve Nison and Tom DeMark price projection we are @ second leg and a fat retracement should follow ...also look at the steep climbe...that thing will fall apart soon...

just sold another lot at 8578....laugh at me when I go broke...

Respect to all smart traders out there
  • #5,756
  • Nov 13, 2008 1:05pm Nov 13, 2008 1:05pm
Quoting smittens4212
BRV, last night was the first night I began writing down a plan, highlighting key levels and what I'd be looking for in other markets, targets, contingency plans, everything. Suffice to say it did wonders for my confidence as almost every level I wrote about was hit and followed what I expected given the conditions at the time. I can now see why you do this daily. It got rid of a lot of the clutter in my mind and allowed me to focus on what could be high % trades, not to mention increasing my patience. I only followed and wrote about the EURUSD...
Could you please post what successful trades you took on E/U today, as I took three and all were losers.
  • #5,757
  • Nov 13, 2008 1:10pm Nov 13, 2008 1:10pm
EUR/GBP that is...sorry I am not a chatrrom veteran, so I was abit nervous to post a message...:-)) PLs don't kill me 4 that...
btw...see EUR/GBP falling???

I love to exchange trading ideas....it'my life

good luck to all and plenty of profit
BP
  • #5,758
  • Nov 13, 2008 1:18pm Nov 13, 2008 1:18pm
and sell another lot (real money) 8590 EUR/GBP NOW
  • #5,759
  • Nov 13, 2008 1:18pm Nov 13, 2008 1:18pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Good stuff....yeah, it does wonders, atleast for me and Ive found for many others. Newer traders overlook it but seriously when I do it my numbers are tenfold. Even if your levels dont pay off immediately you're newer intraday levels get executed with a ton of more confidence. The biggest baddest trader I've ever known plans like crazy (and I mean crazy) and he's worth, literally, billions. Something to be said about that.
Hi BRV,
one question regarding planning... from your personal experience point of view... how many pairs should a trader focus on planning and trading @ maximum?

Reason for my question: for a period of time I also planned like crazy... for many different pairs. The problem with that is that one (at least me) looses the overview you need to execute the trades... Furthermore one starts heavily thinking about the interdependence of all pairs... when using too many pairs this can be very confusing...
  • #5,760
  • Nov 13, 2008 1:21pm Nov 13, 2008 1:21pm
Smittens - Good for you! I've been trying to do the same and, so far, I'm not satisfied with how I am doing it. Do you mind sharing how you went about creating your plan and, perhaps as an example, could you please post how yours from last night looks like? .... In regards to the start of a new day, where do you start: from a brand new chart or from your previous day's chart?

I'd like to also know how you track those levels on the charts. Do you keep the horizontal lines representing your levels, or you just jot down the price levels, get rid of the lines and set price alerts? Same goes for Fibonacci lines when you use them.

Thank you very much for the input, be it from Smittens, BRV or any others who successfully use a plan.

Regards.


Quoting smittens4212
BRV, last night was the first night I began writing down a plan, highlighting key levels and what I'd be looking for in other markets, targets, contingency plans, everything. Suffice to say it did wonders for my confidence as almost every level I wrote about was hit and followed what I expected given the conditions at the time. I can now see why you do this daily. It got rid of a lot of the clutter in my mind and allowed me to focus on what could be high % trades, not to mention increasing my patience. I only followed and wrote about the EURUSD...
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