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  • #44,921
  • Nov 12, 2008 12:29pm Nov 12, 2008 12:29pm
I like this down channel. So i will short eur/usd 1.2550. SL a little higher than 1.2600. TP at 1.2450 or lower.
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  • #44,922
  • Nov 12, 2008 12:41pm Nov 12, 2008 12:41pm
Look at the nice resistance at the red trendline..

We already took yesterdays low , but I guess it wanted to test the trendline before going down again.
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  • #44,923
  • Nov 12, 2008 12:41pm Nov 12, 2008 12:41pm
Quoting ferndog
I like this down channel. So i will short eur/usd 1.2550. SL a little higher than 1.2600. TP at 1.2450 or lower.
you are the master of your account. your trading decisions are yours and yours alone. i do not criticize or approve of your decision. however my perspective on your down channel as someone who trades largely based on channels/triangles/patterns is there are so many spikes in the last 24 hours or so with the trend changing direction several times....your downtrend is just one possibility out of many depending on what you are looking for. i see a possible double bottom. i see 1.2550 as the midpoint for all this choppy choppy. i see a possible uptrend that was just broken but current pa suggests the lower wall was extended. conclusion...channels right now...hard to interpret what is the correct one. just my 2 cents
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #44,924
  • Nov 12, 2008 12:46pm Nov 12, 2008 12:46pm
The two open trades from this morning...(I currently have 11 total on 3 pairs, some running for days now and don't really require much maintnance)

This in a nutshell is my strategy, determine the trend on 1-2hr minimum in the context of the longer term 4/8hr to Daily. Watch mt4 5m-15m charts for MA and S/R hits, enter'exit on (non mt4) 1m-6m charts and then scale out and set min SL of 1-10 pips or more depending on how far it's moved.

Let them puppies run and continue to do the above when appropriate. the entries I posted a few minutes ago are currently at 90 and +180 pips as I type. Of course, these pairs can easily do the opposite before going positive and then I ride them out and suck up the drawdown until the turn, or take the loss and re-enter at the turn. That all depends on too many things to get into here.

I usually do the same on EU as well, but today it's like a moose caught in the headlights. Frozen.

Careful trades all, and not at all is probably best for a bit.
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #44,925
  • Nov 12, 2008 12:47pm Nov 12, 2008 12:47pm
psiholog i see your point but where do u think price is going. Do you think this is a false break of the triangle?
  • #44,926
  • Nov 12, 2008 12:47pm Nov 12, 2008 12:47pm
Quoting ak4x
and scalps are done for 96 pips total. done for awhile. too nerve whacking for me. letting open trades do whatever. going to get ice cream.

psi was right, cuz you can don't mean you should, this is dumb.

cobra, know you're busy out there, but thinkin of you... be careful my friend.
Based on what I see of the THV system, if Cobra is trading that then he should be OK.
  • #44,927
  • Nov 12, 2008 12:52pm Nov 12, 2008 12:52pm
Quoting vinesh2
psiholog i see your point but where do u think price is going. Do you think this is a false break of the triangle?
we are ranging. i have no bias. i dont know where were going and if i tried guessing it would be just that a guess. trichet speaks in 11minutes. he can push this pair way up or way down. we are going wherever we break this range from the high at 1.2630 or the low at 1.2467. the trend is down over the longer term. i should be short biased but i am not (no massive downmove yet when all the other pairs got killed by the dollar). to answer your question...i have no clue..your guess is just as good as mine or anyone else currently trading
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #44,928
  • Nov 12, 2008 1:00pm Nov 12, 2008 1:00pm
Quoting bassd
Look at the nice resistance at the red trendline..

We already took yesterdays low , but I guess it wanted to test the trendline before going down again.
I would if I could see :nerd: through all that.
  • #44,929
  • Nov 12, 2008 1:01pm Nov 12, 2008 1:01pm
Quoting TradeWell
Based on what I see of the THV system, if Cobra is trading that then he should be OK.
thanks, that's good to know, i haven't taken a gander at that system yet, but good to hear it's working. days like this can create heartbreak faster than you can blink, and methinks most of us here have been there, done that...

all us pip pinchers need every edge we can get.
FUBAR...
  • #44,930
  • Nov 12, 2008 1:11pm Nov 12, 2008 1:11pm
Quoting psiholog
you are the master of your account. your trading decisions are yours and yours alone. i do not criticize or approve of your decision. however my perspective on your down channel as someone who trades largely based on channels/triangles/patterns is there are so many spikes in the last 24 hours or so with the trend changing direction several times....your downtrend is just one possibility out of many depending on what you are looking for. i see a possible double bottom. i see 1.2550 as the midpoint for all this choppy choppy. i see a possible uptrend...
thanks for your input. Thats what i wanted some input. Everybody has an opinion & i do agree that channels alone are not the total answer. I just think this pair has more room to go down. gl
  • #44,931
  • Nov 12, 2008 1:12pm Nov 12, 2008 1:12pm
With oil down, stock market retesting its lows, and other currencies outpaced by USD, we are not seeing EUR drop that much. Could it be this high roll for carry trades that I am seeing this week, or is my vision impaired?

Edit: by my calculation, 4.4% carry

edit 2: and you pay 13% if you are selling (all figures annualized)
  • #44,932
  • Nov 12, 2008 1:18pm Nov 12, 2008 1:18pm
Quoting TradeWell
With oil down, stock market retesting its lows, and other currencies outpaced by USD, we are not seeing EUR drop that much. Could it be this high roll for carry trades that I am seeing this week, or is my vision impaired?

Edit: by my calculation, 4.4% carry

I was thinking along those same lines. We will know if the flood gate breaks after Roll. Seems like a lot of pressure not to have moved more.
Redefining Reality
  • #44,933
  • Nov 12, 2008 1:18pm Nov 12, 2008 1:18pm
I just realized something... I can't remember the last time I saw a "triple swap" on wednesday post. seeing vinesh drop in here made me think of that...

I also just remembered my "PA maybe slowing down over the next couple days in advance of G20 meetings" post yesterday or monday nite...

What a crock that turned out to be...

I'll trade being wrong about that for a few thousand pips any day tho.
FUBAR...
  • #44,934
  • Nov 12, 2008 1:27pm Nov 12, 2008 1:27pm
I noticed the US treas has a few more Euros this week than in the last report.
Redefining Reality
  • #44,935
  • Nov 12, 2008 1:35pm Nov 12, 2008 1:35pm
Quoting piptechnician
I noticed the US treas has a few more Euros this week than in the last report.
is there a website where i can see this too?...if so can you please post it...would be much appreciated
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #44,936
  • Nov 12, 2008 1:39pm Nov 12, 2008 1:39pm
OK psi this conspiracy theory is for you:

The banks know everyone is expecting the Euro to drop since it broke from the triangle. So, alot of little players have shorted and are waiting for the drop. In the meantime, the banks are keeping the price propped so that they can collect the current big roll from all these shorts. After 5 pm, when roll has been paid, the bottom drops out. Whaddaya think huh? Brilliant? :nerd:or crazy?
  • #44,937
  • Nov 12, 2008 1:40pm Nov 12, 2008 1:40pm
seems that there is bomb below 1.2500 someone need to fix that
"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" leonardo da vinci
  • #44,938
  • Nov 12, 2008 1:42pm Nov 12, 2008 1:42pm
are you sure you want that site, they value gold stock at $42.2222 per fine troy ounce


LOL...

I set a RSS feed a while back on the US treas website, there are golden nuggets of information all over the US govt sites if you are willing to hunt for them www.treas.gov
Redefining Reality
  • #44,939
  • Nov 12, 2008 1:45pm Nov 12, 2008 1:45pm
Quoting ak4x
thanks, that's good to know, i haven't taken a gander at that system yet, but good to hear it's working. days like this can create heartbreak faster than you can blink, and methinks most of us here have been there, done that...

all us pip pinchers need every edge we can get.
Hi folks
Yes, I'm fine, I'm preparing the brilliant idea from AK to open a new thread for the system, beside of trading.

I'm making notes on all trades to get filtered out bad ones (very few), so no time to have fun here for the moment.

For the ones that work with the system take a view always on the both COG lines, the PA is very interesting looking on that.

Back to work.

Have fun and green pips
  • #44,940
  • Nov 12, 2008 1:50pm Nov 12, 2008 1:50pm
Quoting piptechnician
are you sure you want that site, they value gold stock at $42.2222 per fine troy ounce

... there are golden nuggets of information all over the US govt sites if you are willing to hunt for them www.treas.gov
one of my favorite sites for boring days...

ptech, I think they use that gold number to value the gold reserves of various nations on a consistent basis, somewhere close to where it was when we came off the gold standard back in the day. could be wrong tho. any thoughts on that?

secondly, you should send that weblink and comment to hank paulson. he could use that info...
FUBAR...
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