Spud's Predictive MTF Stochastics

Alright, now the way I play this is that if I get another short trigger and the 15m/30m are still down, IF there is room for a little move down before the R1 line, I may jump in. The 1hr is still heading down but with price bouncing around I'm not sure. I may be better off just waiting for the short build.

While I was writing my other post, the 30m candle closed. I'm in for a quick pip grab since the 5m/15m/30m support my move up although the 1hr is still falling.

Edit** I'm out for another +20 pips.

I'm up about +35 long. We'll see how far it runs. Gotta love the London open.

J

I agree

Hey can anyone comment on this analysis I just saw it and came to this conclusion ... Don't know if I just got lucky or my thinking was correct. From entry to exit it went swimmingly -

Anyway this was my thinking...

10:05 GMT Close

5m Closed below 10% level
15m High above 90% level
30m High at 62% Pointing up
H1 High at 68% pointing up
H4 High and rising

PREDICTION: Elastic trade – 5m needs to go up to either pull the higher TF’s down lower or keep building them long. Either way will support a long

ENTRY: On the close of the 5m candle @1.2847 go long and ride the 5m stoch to the 90% level.

The trade went well...

RESULT: Closed at 1.2897 +48 pips (minus Spread)

Cheers

Entry (in my thinking) same as the above example


5m Closed under 90% level
15m High above 80% level Pointing up
30m High Above 80% level Pointing up
H1 Above 80% and rising
H4 High and rising


PREDICTION: Elastic trade – 5m needs to go up to either pull the higher TF’s down lower or keep building them long.

ENTRY: On close of candle at 12:50 1.2893. Go long and ride the 5m Stoch to the 90% level

Will wait and see how it pans out....

After a shakey start it ended up ok.

RESULT: Closed at 1.2920 +24 pips (minus spread)

Heres a short:

14:00 Close GMT (15m Chart)

5m Triggered and price had gone down since.
15m Has turned down lead by price.
30m is still up but overbought
H1 is overbought
H4 High

PREDICTION: 5m building the 15m short. Things are over bought. 5m is under 15m, 15m is under 30m, 30m is under H1.

ENTRY: At the 14:00 close (15m chart) 1.2879 Short ride the 15 down to the 20% level – If 30m breaks down ride the 30m down to 20% level.. If H1 breaks down ride the H1 to the 20% level. Exit if any long signals are generated.

Looking to ride the Escalator down now will targeting an exit when the 30m crosses the 20% level

See how this one goes...

EDIT:Closing trade because the 5m and 15m are over sold with the 30m and h1 under 80 but high.

RESULT:CLosed at 1.2812 +64pips (minus spread)

Could have ridden the 30m and h1 down for another 50+ pips but I'm more than happy with 64 - In hindsight there was another elastic short there worth 70 pips at the 16:05 GMT close.

need sleeeeeep

Nice results Cindy, that's a productive start of the week for you! I like your charts and analysis.

J

very nice cindy great results
i still ve some doubt about my trades entries i wish it ll be fixed with practice
spud didnt show today we really miss his teaching and comments

CindyXXXX - very nice trades this morning. I am currently on a long weekend get away in mountains with the wife but I brought my laptop to keep up with the adventures of Spud. I am sorry I missed those nice setups this morning.

Keep up the good work,

W.

Nice charts and great analysis.

In efforts to simplify entry I believe if a gifted indicator programmer could develop something similar as described below, it may significantly help your trades.

What is required is an alert when the current M5 stochastic closes above the last closed M15 stochastic or below the last closed M15 stochastic. The prerequisite is that for an M5 close above the M15, the M5 had to be lower than the M15 stochastic. Vice versa the other way.

When the M5 closes above we want to track it until price has gained 10 pips. (we'd like the 10 pips to be variable). This could be another alert or a fat coloured line on the M5 stochastic as I illustrated below. The opposite for a short when the M5 is below the M15.

Nice to have dots or x's paint on the M5 where the M15 stochastic closes are. This could be a line but that may be too confusing unless the line stops at the last close (i.e.we don't want a live M15 stochastic line bouncing up and down).

The overall idea is to be alerted when the M5 stochastic crosses from above to below the M15 stochastic line (short) or the M5 stochastic crosses from below to above the M15 stochastic line (long). We must only utilize the closed stochastic value and not the "live" open stochastic. We then want to stay in that trade for "x" number of pips. When the pip target is reached our exit alert sounds.

We also need a stop loss variable and alert.

Thanks everyone for your feedback

Just thought I'd say I've read this thread from start to finish about 3 times now and I think I will do it again today - each time I seem to pick up something new that I either missed or just didn't understand before...

Spuds done a great job explaining this but I don't think it's the sort of thing you can grasp in just one flick through of the thread, so if anyones still confused you might wanna try reading through all spuds posts again before looking for the latest posts.

I'm still unsure about a few things myself that I hope to clear up on my next read through.

Just my 2 cents

Well, I've been on planes all day and I missed some good moves. I picked up +23 pips this morning before I left for work by targeting a lower support line that I had a feeling it would hit. So I set my TP and SL and left for the airport. Now I'm here in Canada and I'm seeing a setup for a long coming soon. I'll be watching and waiting it out.

you are right cindy i personaly started to read the thread again it takes lots of time and each time i understand something new especialy that english isnt my language so you can imagine the time i spend to focus but the charts helps a lot to make
things clear
thanks spud

Yes - I just made a PDF of all spuds posts and a few of the quesions posted by various members but it's too big to post it. If anyone wants it or knows how to make it smaller to post here send me a PM.

Grrrrr - the limit is 1.91MB and it's 2.03MB

I also found these two PDF's very helpful from Spudfyers earlier threads.

I've been pulling some long trades off of the eurusd since my previous two posts and they've totaled +25 pips. Things are a little high for me to enter again now. The 4hr is still down and the 1hr is just updated and is not moving up too much. That tells me that price will likely snap back and the 5m/15m/30m/ will come back down to either bring the 1hr up higher or the 4hr lower. Will wait and see. Either way, I'm only looking to go short.

Good call on a possible short coming up - I was looking at things and sctatching my head but the light bulb moment was when you mentioned that the H1 had updated and not gone up much. Waiting for the snap back - would like the 30 a bit higher though hmm

Cheers