That's why they plan to cut the supply - you saying the price won't go up if the supply is cut?
"Meanwhile, The New York Times‘ analysis expresses doubt whether the cut will result in higher prices at all. It also points to ‘near panic’ on the part of Iran, Venezuela, and Libya—the ‘oil hawks’—who fear their already taxed economies will suffer devastating consequences. This piece goes deeper into how Saudi Arabia is calculating the global effects of prices on economic growth..."
http://xrdarabia.org/2008/10/24/opec...-m-barrelsday/
This confirms what I've been hearing for awhile from some other sources that tracks this topic very closely. Short version is that the Saudi's could easily have an agenda to drive the price down yet a little more and/or extend the duration of much lower prices until some of the "competition" is out of the market, or nearly so... Again.
Historically, research the original 1973 embargo, and look at the part Caracas played in that little romp. Then research the Saudi actions in the 80's where they flooded the markets and the effect that had on the Soviet Union (remember them?) and related issues (like the fact it all fell apart). Whose idea was that do you think??? They (the Saudis) got rid of a major competitor for years, and we got rid of a big threat w/o funny mushroom shaped clouds lighting up the landscape.
What tangled webs they weave...I still vividly remember $8-$9 bbl oil in the mid 80's. Alaska's economy disintegrated overnight. All this today is a little bit deja vu far as I'm concerned.
Oil may get traded like a commodity, but since 1973 it's been a weapon first, and commodity second. And first comes first for a reason.
Imagine $30 bbl oil again for awhile. Who you think's gonna holler uncle first? Cesar or King Abdullah? Russia may have gotten up off the mat, but they also may have managed to find theirselves on the ropes again as well. Declining production of existing fields in the not too distant future, future Siberian fields extremely difficult to develop either with or w/o western or european help, and why do that if they're just gonna grab it. Again. Economy going into a shambles after the foray into Georgia... Again.
Oh yeah, I can see the Saudi's settin up the shot right now. Again.
Lots of "agains" in this post... History is funny like that.
Watch the next scheduled Opec meeting in December closely for the signs...
http://www.opec.org/opecna/Press%20R...PEC-Russia.htm
http://www.opec.org/opecna/Speeches/2008/SGMoscow.htm
FUBAR...
