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Daily candle chart

  • #3,561
  • Nov 8, 2008 6:56am Nov 8, 2008 6:56am
Quoting hussin naiji
PEACHES ,GENERALLY,REAL SYMBOL BASED ON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICAL (CAPITALISM) IS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE. ONLY WITH RECOVERY THIS INDEX WE CAN SEE SIGNAL FOR EXIT FROM THIS CRISIS
all these cut rates by FED, BOJ,BOE,ECB ,... IS ONLY TO RETURN THIS INDEX TO GOOD POSITION
  • #3,562
  • Nov 8, 2008 8:58am Nov 8, 2008 8:58am
examine new changes in the weekly and daily candle chart
  • #3,563
  • Nov 8, 2008 9:12am Nov 8, 2008 9:12am
Quoting hussin naiji
examine new changes in the weekly and daily candle chart
during 16 years past (from feb 1992 till this time ) we can see only a long real body of blue candle with more 740 p in date 1999.02.14 and after the second long real body of blue candle with more 600 p in two week ago that has given us a form bullish piercing line pattern. but after this bullish pattern now we see apperance only a doji.
it is interesting because high -low of this doji is with 380 p and open-close is during a week only 4 p.
the last candlestick (doji)on the chart is what would be considered a valid breakout or a false breakout??
now we can see a bearish petrifying harami pattern but attention cross harami is important in top no bottom for a signal reversal pattern maybe this doji will shows us a correction .at any rate whether we can see a bearish abandoned baby pattern after this pattern or no ??
attention :a close weekly in the next week above 99.40 is very bad for bear camp
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  • #3,564
  • Nov 9, 2008 7:47am Nov 9, 2008 7:47am
What may be another bad news for CAD - spinning top and bearish engulfing on weekly oil chart.
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  • #3,565
  • Nov 9, 2008 9:34am Nov 9, 2008 9:34am
also for weekly candel chart GBPUSD
ATTENTION :THIS PATTERN IS WITH LOW RELIABILITY
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  • #3,566
  • Nov 9, 2008 10:31am Nov 9, 2008 10:31am
Quoting hussin naiji
PEACHES ,GENERALLY,REAL SYMBOL BASED ON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICAL (CAPITALISM) IS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE. ONLY WITH RECOVERY THIS INDEX WE CAN SEE SIGNAL FOR EXIT FROM THIS CRISIS
Hi Hussin,

thank you for hint to indicator consumer confidance.

I think, crises is not over. I have just read today in a newspaper, here in germany: Assurances will not be given to automotive supply industry. The assurances will not take the risk from automobile producers. automobile producers are in big big trouble.
  • #3,567
  • Nov 9, 2008 10:48am Nov 9, 2008 10:48am
Candlestick analyses for geppy -weekly:

The weekly candlestick is not a pattern from my knowledge.

Note: last 2 weeks we have seen from my point of view a consolidation
and sideway movement, after we have seen before, big drops in the past.
After this consolidation time is over, price will move faster, and
I can´t see hints for bulls.

I stay bearish, until I see a clear bullish reversal pattern.
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  • #3,568
  • Nov 9, 2008 10:52am Nov 9, 2008 10:52am
Last fridays daily candle was a neutral candle, with both upper and lower wick ~ same lenght.

But we have seen a pattern build of three daily candles which is high reliable, but has not played out yet: a three outside down. So why bulls did not allowed to push price lower ? I think it is because of the 50 % fibo level, from which the price was rejected. Also big support is daily gann line.

If we switch to the 1 h chart, we see a downtrending channel, where ~ 155 has been support in the past, which has been broken to the downside. Price came back on friday to re-test this pricelevel, and will be rejected to resume downtrend. The 61.8 fibo level and lower part of the chanel might be next support.

Take care during US session, because TNX has been a bullish candle on friday.
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  • #3,569
  • Nov 9, 2008 11:03am Nov 9, 2008 11:03am
Quoting Pipsy108
Hi, I have one question about what is the best time for daily candle open. In commodities markets for which this technique was developed everything is clear, as they have well defined session open and close, but forex is 24/7. Currently I have my daily candles starting at GMT+0 (London midnight) but maybe GMT+7 (Europe open - 8:00am local time - Europe and London sessions are forex "rush hours") may capture the market sentiment better?

What do you thing about it? Or do you think it's not really important and the daily candles will capture the sentiment anyway?
Hi,

from my short experiance (1,75 years) it doesn´t matter very much which session you are trading. I have seen low volume during US session, which often is a big trading opportunity, and asia session I have seen big big moves, which is normaly low volume. I do my charting with fxpro.

Tmac gives hint, that fxpro uses retail market hours:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3205

Also have a look to posting from queece about fix times in FX market and high volatility:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=128076
  • #3,570
  • Nov 9, 2008 11:13am Nov 9, 2008 11:13am
eur/usd

The last 2 weeks weekly candles are indicating selling pressure, Last weeks candle was a doji which needs confirmation.

The daily chart also shows a doji, but if we zoom in the 4 h chart, we see a trendline, if broken whatch out for more downmoves. But beware:

As long as price is moving around this 76.4 monthly fibo level, the price action might be choppy. A re-test of the maybe in future broken red line for example from the downside would reflect this.
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  • #3,571
  • Nov 9, 2008 11:27am Nov 9, 2008 11:27am
Quoting hussin naiji
also for weekly candel chart GBPUSD
ATTENTION :THIS PATTERN IS WITH LOW RELIABILITY
Price from GU is sitting on the 138.2 monthly fibo-level. Price action around monthly fibo levels often is choppy. If this level is broken whatch a 1000 PIP drop to 1.45.

On GU daily I can not see a pattern with high reliability. The daily is a doji, which large upper wick, shows pressure of bears.

On the 1 h chart, we see a downtrending channel, with first target the
138.2 monthly fibo-level, but main target are the lows from the past weeks at 1.53.
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  • #3,572
  • Nov 9, 2008 11:38am Nov 9, 2008 11:38am
Quoting hussin naiji
during 16 years past (from feb 1992 till this time ) we can see...

I agree with USD/JPY is on the edge: the area 100 - 99 has been a key level in the longterm past. I think after break of this level to the downside, price has come back, to re-test, if this level is solid. If price breaks this level again upside and established above, we see true reversal.

But I doubt, I think, yen crosses might go to new lows in the next weeks.
Financial crisis is not over, and we might see a bullish JPY.

But I have no pattern for this thinking.
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  • #3,573
  • Nov 9, 2008 12:15pm Nov 9, 2008 12:15pm
A last one for today:

AUD/USD:

This pair has broken 100% monthly fibo level to the downside, so see more downside movements to fibo projection levels.

The daily has had a highly reliable bearish reversal pattern. On my charts
I see a three inside down pattern.

http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs75.asp

Most importend: This pattern apears at the end of an uptrend. Its always importend where a pattern appears !

Please read what professionals from Morgan Stanley say about this pair, they see aud/usd 47 ct by june 2009:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...efer=australia
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  • #3,574
  • Nov 9, 2008 12:58pm Nov 9, 2008 12:58pm
Quoting peaches
Hi,

from my short experiance (1,75 years) it doesn´t matter very much which session you are trading.
Thanks, I have been staring at the graphs during the weekend and got the same impression. I am trading with Oanda, but I am using FX Pro for charting too (Oanda is not very good for that, no weekly and monthly graphs, no indexes, gold, oil etc.)
  • #3,575
  • Nov 9, 2008 1:07pm Nov 9, 2008 1:07pm
Quoting peaches
I agree with USD/JPY is on the edge: the area 100 - 99 has been a key level in the longterm past. I think after break of this level to the downside, price has come back, to re-test, if this level is solid. If price breaks this level again upside and established above, we see true reversal.

But I doubt, I think, yen crosses might go to new lows in the next weeks.
Financial crisis is not over, and we might see a bullish JPY.

But I have no pattern for this thinking.
Last week some top japanese economist (called Mr. Yen) told Bloomberg that yen may go to 85-80 and that he is not worried about it as japanese economy can handle it. I don't know if he was giving us prediction or self fulfilling prophecy, but I still expect downtrend on USDJPY to continue for a while. Let see what candles will tell us in following days.

The story is here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...refer=currency
  • #3,576
  • Nov 10, 2008 4:13pm Nov 10, 2008 4:13pm
Quoting Pipsy108
Last week some top japanese economist (called Mr. Yen) told Bloomberg that yen may go to 85-80 and that he is not worried about it as japanese economy can handle it. I don't know if he was giving us prediction or self fulfilling prophecy, but I still expect downtrend on USDJPY to continue for a while. Let see what candles will tell us in following days.

The story is here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...refer=currency
with high hope, we are at the beginning of a very strong yen.
  • #3,577
  • Nov 10, 2008 4:23pm Nov 10, 2008 4:23pm
first of all, the tnx or ten year treasury note:

we know connection with yen crosses and TNX. If TNX falls, yen crosses move down moste time.

Last thursday and friday was pretty irretating because of a bullish news driven
up move from TNX. There would be a second sureprise, if we move UP, after todays bearish candle.

On my charts a see a bearish candle, and a trendline. If this trendline
breaks, we will see yen crosses fall from the cliff.
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  • #3,578
  • Nov 10, 2008 4:27pm Nov 10, 2008 4:27pm
second chart is the dow daily:

the dow has a neutral candle if I look at the shape of the candle.

It is not a pattern, but notice the red dashed trendline,
if broken to the downside, big drop is a possibility

I can not see a bullish sign based on candlestick patterns.
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  • #3,579
  • Nov 10, 2008 4:35pm Nov 10, 2008 4:35pm
geppy daily:

an upward gap, followed by long bearish candle at the end of an uptrend
is an bearish high reliable evening star.

http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs72.asp

But the only problem is: this pattern does not appear at the
end of an uptrend.

If I look at the 1 h chart, I still see this down channel, with next support at ~151 and around ~148.
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  • #3,580
  • Nov 10, 2008 4:39pm Nov 10, 2008 4:39pm
I think eur/aud is more clear, if we compare this with geppy.

We have had a downtrend and see now a bullish morning star:

http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs59.asp

Wait for retrace end a good chance to enter long on my charts.
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