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EUR/JPY

I'm not an American, but I congratulate all US citizens on the historic achievement of electing Obama. I also thank them for creating a wonderful rally today which helped me gain 100+ pips. I will go long as long as the YM is positive.

All the best
This 30 minute chart shows what could be a setup for a break to the downside out of the dual band pinch area. We just wait to see if the price, which seems to be rolling over, continues down. The 262% fib extension level down is at 120.00 area, which would be a nice run.

The red arrows show the ABC Zigzag pattern. The third leg would be the run from the second down arrow lower and down past the single up arrow, possiblly a signal for entry short.

Anything can happen, but that would be one very possible senario.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ey bb + zigzag 30 minute #1 11-05-2008.gif Size: 59 KB
Quoting traderathome
This 30 minute chart shows what could be a setup for a break to the downside out of the dual band pinch area. We just wait to see if the price, which seems to be rolling over, continues down. The 262% fib extension level down is at 120.00 area, which would be a nice run.

The red arrows show the ABC Zigzag pattern. The third leg would be the run from the second down arrow lower and down past the single up arrow, possiblly a signal for entry short.

Anything can happen, but that would be one very possible senario.

you were right on ..buddy...
it drops like a bird poo..

I can see that u are sellin all the way..ur max DD is abt 300...

seems like u lik 30 min TF..any reason??
what is ur BBand setting??

Sonic
The price did roll over and drop. Now, after the fact, I have drawn the fib extensions across the pinch of the inner Bollinger band. See how the price made it down to the 162% level. This was not a well defined pinch back at the time of the breakout....only now can I see where it would best have been drawn. This sometimes happens. Nothing works perfectly all the time.

I previously mentioned the 120.00 level. Anything is possible, but I have second thoughts on that for now. The 1 hour chart shows the price made it down to about the mid point of the large "W" formation. This is common, and a place where reversals take place. So, for a while now, we may again be on the upside. While it remains right in this area, it is hard to say for sure....will it reverse for a while, or pause and maybe range and go down more, or go on down after just a bit of a pause here? I have to wait this one out and see what it does. In the meantime, maybe scalp down on the lowest timeframes....
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Click to Enlarge Name: ey 1 hour #1 11-05-2008.gif Size: 65 KB
Quoting traderathome
The price did roll over and drop. Now, after the fact, I have drawn the fib extensions across the pinch of the inner Bollinger band. See how the price made it down to the 162% level. This was not a well defined pinch back at the time of the breakout....only now can I see where it would best have been drawn. This sometimes happens. Nothing works perfectly all the time.

I previously mentioned the 120.00 level. Anything is possible, but I have second thoughts on that for now. The 1 hour chart shows the price made it down to about the mid point of the large \"W\" formation. This is common, and a place where reversals take place. So, for a while now, we may again be on the upside. While it remains...

All I see is the Lows are getting higher...and the high has 130 as the ceiling,, mainly H4 TF...

Are we seeing the triangle?...if not we can say break out up ahead..if the price doesn't go lower than 124 and 123 lvl...

Looking for bullish candle to go in...
Sonic

Sonic
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Quoting sonicdeejay
you were right on ..buddy...
it drops like a bird poo..

I can see that u are sellin all the way..ur max DD is abt 300...

seems like u lik 30 min TF..any reason??
what is ur BBand setting??

Sonic

Sonic, my trade entry timeframe varies. But I couch my trades on what I see as an overall picture from the Daily, 4 Hr, and 1 Hr charts. Least risky trading is when all three are same color and there is a setup in same direction on some lower timeframe. Down from that is if at least the 4 Hr and 1 Hr are same and there is a setup in same direction on some lower timeframe. But sometimes there is what looks like a good setup on some lower timeframe that goes against the stack of larger candles.....

In my 2 Bollinger band chart template I use the standard Bollinger band as the outer one. It has the period of 20 and deviation of 2. The inner Bollinger band has the period of 10 and a deviation of 1.5, and this is the band that is used for drawing most of the fibonacci extensions. I use the 162%, 262% and 400% as my 1-2-3 target exits. I gauge the pip distance between them to consider if I should even trade it.
On this 5 minute chart, if the price breakout from the pinch will roll over and up, making the true run a run to the upside, then we may see 150+ pips.

It could just continue on down.

A run below the first arrow price could signal a short entry. A run up past the second arrow price could signal a long entry......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ey 15 minute #1 11-05-2008.gif Size: 51 KB
Quoting traderathome
On this 5 minute chart, if the price breakout from the pinch will roll over and up, making the true run a run to the upside, then we may see 150+ pips.

It could just continue on down.

A run below the first arrow price could signal a short entry. A run up past the second arrow price could signal a long entry......
A second and better formed pinch is setting up on the inner BB on the 5 minute chart. It remains to be seen which direction the price will take. But for now it looks like up.......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ey 5 minute #2 11-05-2008.gif Size: 52 KB



ABC Zigzag Entry Rule:

Apply this rule once a run (up or down) has come to an end, putting in the highest high, or lowest low from which the price retraces, then comes back up (but no farther than the extreme prices, or you have to start over with the new price).

After this second, less extreme price is put in, the price will begin to retrace again if this pattern is setting up….and checking for this pattern is the whole point. But usually this time, before it makes it back to the previous retrace extreme, it will fall into an ill defined range for a while. Once the retrace later proceeds beyond this ill defined range and is headed for the previous significant retrace point, you should be considering an entry…..definately once the price moves past the previous retrace extreme.

Look at it this way, on a run up….the highest high we label A. Then we get a retrace down to B. Then we get another run up (but not higher than A) to C. Now, when the price starts to run back down, entry would be somewhere between C and below B, keeping in mind that this run down may involve some wasted time while the price falls into a range before finally dropping down out of it and finally moving on below B.

This action creates a zigzag pattern which starts at the highest high at the end of the run up. This pattern goes down from A to the first stop and reverse of the retrace at B. It then continues up to a second high at C that is not higher than A. Entry can be at some point during the final leg of this zigzag, from C on down past B. If ranging occurs in this final leg of the zigzag, at least wait for the range breakout before entering the trade. The most conservative entry would be to wait for the price to move beyond C.

No matter what strategy you are using, looking for this ABC Zigzag and using it when considering trade entry, may help you.
They are dragging this out on the 5 minute chart....ranging, so the 15 minute chart now is the clearer picture. It still remains to be seen if this breaks up or down....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ey 15 minute #1 11-06-2008.gif Size: 64 KB
nice analysis bro...thanx for update info
Quoting traderathome
A second and better formed pinch is setting up on the inner BB on the 5 minute chart. It remains to be seen which direction the price will take. But for now it looks like up.......

Nice analysis and a good call...the attempted break of the 25.50 level, followed by the second attempt only slightly lower was a Buy signal for a few pips to the falling TL with both the Euro and UJ having small rallies.

Now will this continue OR pull back again into the ECB announcement due later this morning? TWT, but as a rate cut is expected we might get a "sell the rumour, buy the news" rally later....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
We could be nearing a breakout to the upside.....
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Click to Enlarge Name: ey 15 minute #2 11-06-2008.gif Size: 63 KB
Keep plunging but...we gona see a first higher low in 5m TF soon...
One of our mistake is trying to get into bottom or peak...without going with the flow...
I am standing aside...till then

Sonic
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Long EJ @ 127.37

Sonic
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may i know where is your TP dude??
SL 126.37
TP 128.45 but will SL @ BE when 127.9x

Sonic
tq dude..nice setup
Shorted Eur/Jpy

Sonic
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Quoting sonicdeejay
Shorted Eur/Jpy

Sonic
So did I at 127.85 but when it started jumping around at 127.50 I got out for 30 and missed the collapse!!
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