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  • #43,621
  • Nov 5, 2008 9:26pm Nov 5, 2008 9:26pm
Quoting TradeWell
So should I consider an overnighter?
ecb rate cuts will mean massive price swings. including big spread at least at time of news. whether you should be awake or not when news comes out...thats entirely up to you...market will be crazy thats for sure


to the new traders watching this thread...i highly recommend sitting on the sidelines tonight or only demoing....while everything points south now...looks can be deceptive especially today
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #43,622
  • Nov 5, 2008 9:27pm Nov 5, 2008 9:27pm
5 pips to the quarter pivot between S1 and M2...
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FUBAR...
  • #43,623
  • Nov 5, 2008 9:31pm Nov 5, 2008 9:31pm
Quoting psiholog
on closer inspection this whole downmove feels like wave 1 of elliot waves. the correction upwards that i refer to could be wave 2. the hours right before and after ecb rate cut wave 3. i know you like EW

could this be a possible scenario?
Very possible since it appears Wave 4 correction in my count may be over.
  • #43,624
  • Nov 5, 2008 9:32pm Nov 5, 2008 9:32pm
Quoting psiholog
ecb rate cuts will mean massive price swings. including big spread at least at time of news. whether you should be awake or not when news comes out...thats entirely up to you...market will be crazy thats for sure
I see the press conference is at 5:30 am PT, if that's correct. I'm up by then anyway, fully fueled with coffee...will want to watch even if not actively trading.
  • #43,625
  • Nov 5, 2008 9:37pm Nov 5, 2008 9:37pm
Quoting TradeWell
I see the press conference is at 5:30 am PT, if that's correct. I'm up by then anyway, fully fueled with coffee...will want to watch even if not actively trading.
Rate cut is expected - aren't these 400 pip move days wild enough without the news?
  • #43,626
  • Nov 5, 2008 9:39pm Nov 5, 2008 9:39pm
Quoting SunTrader
Very possible since it appears Wave 4 correction in my count may be over.
in that case i will look carefully at where current pa bottoms out...draw fibs from current high to low and watch for either 50% retracement or 61.8% retracement before continuation south...if it even continues south that is
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #43,627
  • Nov 5, 2008 9:46pm Nov 5, 2008 9:46pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
Rate cut is expected - aren't these 400 pip move days wild enough without the news?

Rate cuts, in this environment, might be positive rather than negative for the currency, as they are seen as preventing further chaos.
  • #43,628
  • Nov 5, 2008 9:46pm Nov 5, 2008 9:46pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
Rate cut is expected - aren't these 400 pip move days wild enough without the news?
I believe the IR cut has been already expected and possibly discounted.
I dont expect any big movement especially downwards when it is officially announced.
  • #43,629
  • Nov 5, 2008 9:50pm Nov 5, 2008 9:50pm
Unless they cut more than expected.
  • #43,630
  • Nov 5, 2008 9:53pm Nov 5, 2008 9:53pm
``Look for the euro to remain in a broad downtrend,'' Brian Kim, a currency strategist in Stamford, Connecticut, at UBS AG, the second-largest currency trader, wrote in a note yesterday. ``Our economists expect the ECB to cut half a percentage point and think the press conference could be more dovish than expected, leaving the door open for more rate cuts.''
  • #43,631
  • Nov 5, 2008 9:54pm Nov 5, 2008 9:54pm
Quoting wwwin
Rate cuts, in this environment, might be positive rather than negative for the currency, as they are seen as preventing further chaos.
I totally agree. If it can rally Eurozone equities, that would be a start.
  • #43,632
  • Nov 5, 2008 9:56pm Nov 5, 2008 9:56pm
i see a short term bull now. May bring up to at least 1.291
  • #43,633
  • Nov 5, 2008 9:56pm Nov 5, 2008 9:56pm
Quoting SunTrader
``Look for the euro to remain in a broad downtrend,'' Brian Kim, a currency strategist in Stamford, Connecticut, at UBS AG, the second-largest currency trader, wrote in a note yesterday. ``Our economists expect the ECB to cut half a percentage point and think the press conference could be more dovish than expected, leaving the door open for more rate cuts.''
Yeah everyone is saying that. But trichet is still not so certain:

"``I consider it possible that the Governing Council would decrease interest rates once again at its next meeting,'' on Nov. 6, Trichet said in a speech in Madrid today. ``It is not a certainty, it is a possibility.'' He declined to comment on how big a November rate reduction might be."
  • #43,634
  • Nov 5, 2008 9:58pm Nov 5, 2008 9:58pm
I am just looking at daily charts on EUR and AUD, and they look like they want to "bring about change." KNow what I mean? hehe
  • #43,635
  • Nov 5, 2008 10:00pm Nov 5, 2008 10:00pm
don't know what is sparking this, but I like it.
  • #43,636
  • Nov 5, 2008 10:02pm Nov 5, 2008 10:02pm
Quoting SunTrader
``Look for the euro to remain in a broad downtrend,'' Brian Kim, a currency strategist in Stamford, Connecticut, at UBS AG, the second-largest currency trader, wrote in a note yesterday. ``Our economists expect the ECB to cut half a percentage point and think the press conference could be more dovish than expected, leaving the door open for more rate cuts.''
Underlying what he is saying is the key to understanding why there is volatility at the announcement - it's not the rate cut itself that matters so much as the statement that follows. Markets always looking ahead, which is why gagakrimba could be correct in that the cut is already priced in.
  • #43,637
  • Nov 5, 2008 10:03pm Nov 5, 2008 10:03pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
Yeah everyone is saying that. But trichet is still not so certain:

\"``I consider it possible that the Governing Council would decrease interest rates once again at its next meeting,'' on Nov. 6, Trichet said in a speech in Madrid today. ``It is not a certainty, it is a possibility.'' He declined to comment on how big a November rate reduction might be.\"
Is that quote from today, because I don't understand it then. Is Trichet saying it is not a certainty of a rate cut of any size tomorrow? Bull-oney. 100% of economists Bloomberg surveyed said expect a .50% cut. They all could be wrong I suppose. But he usually gives signals that are clear. Doesn't make sense.
  • #43,638
  • Nov 5, 2008 10:09pm Nov 5, 2008 10:09pm
i think its too early to call whether the bear trend is over and the bull trend begins. daily candles to me at this point are irrelevant. the only thing that matters is price action has stuck in this triangle on the 4h chart for the whole week. the midline of this triangle is 1.2850 and as you can see price action is sticking above that point. until a decisive break of this big triangle is seen...calling bear or bull continuation is purely guessing. thats just my 2 cents...with a long term bear bias.

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #43,639
  • Nov 5, 2008 10:19pm Nov 5, 2008 10:19pm
Quoting TradeWell
Underlying what he is saying is the key to understanding why there is volatility at the announcement - it's not the rate cut itself that matters so much as the statement that follows. Markets always looking ahead, which is why gagakrimba could be correct in that the cut is already priced in.
I didn't say it wasn't already priced in. I said maybe a cut bigger than 1/2% is not priced in.

But depending on which direction the markets heads after the announcement will tell if it was truly "priced in" or not.
  • #43,640
  • Nov 5, 2008 10:22pm Nov 5, 2008 10:22pm
The Bank of Japan may be powerless to prevent the yen from rising to a 13-year high, according to the world's biggest foreign-exchange traders...

The currency will appreciate to 90 per dollar from 98.02 today in Tokyo even if the Bank of Japan intervenes to stem the biggest annual gain since 1998, they said...

``Once the market realizes that we're now in a global recession, there's further deleveraging to come,'' said Geoff Kendrick, a senior currency strategist at UBS in London. Traders are capitulating'' after five years of bets against the yen, he said
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...4Oo&refer=home



I love it... "once the market realizes..."
FUBAR...
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