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Spud's Predictive MTF Stochastics

  • #161
  • Nov 4, 2008 10:22am Nov 4, 2008 10:22am
i contacted some programmers asking for an indicator that calculates the difference between the last 2 closed stochastic bars
and cja did it for me
here is this reply
Hi Sarah

I have just made this for you, i have coded in a manual magic number which needs to be different for each time you load the #2 Bar Counter onto the same chart to avoid code conflict.
I have made this indicator so that you can set the Stochastics to any setting required and to any combo of 3 Tmeframes.
The indicator can also be moved to anywhere on the chart using the SHIFT inputs including an indicator window if required.
All the colors are able to be altered thru the inputs including the Background and Border colors see some of the possible color/Stoch setup options in the screenshot below..

I have also added in something that you did not request and that is the difference between the Current Bar and the Previous Bar this should help give a more up to date view on the moves whereas the other data you requested is the Previous Bar Close and 2 Bars back Close, i think i have got this the way you wanted it??

If anything needs to be changed let me know.

for any changing spud pls guide me
thank you
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Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 #2 Bar Counter.ex4   12 KB | 631 downloads
  • #162
  • Nov 4, 2008 10:48am Nov 4, 2008 10:48am
Quoting wrenski
Good question....I have been curious about the same issue.
It does not matter if you look only at M5/M15. If you are using MTF Stochastics to support your trades than it matters if M15 is >20 <80 in certain situations as per MTF Stochastics.
  • #163
  • Nov 4, 2008 10:52am Nov 4, 2008 10:52am
MTF Stochastics will make you a better trader and make this system perform much better for you.

You do not need MTF Stochastics to trade this method. You will though have more stops because of it and you will not enjoy all the gains long trends will offer. Over the long run, it should not impact your bottom line if you keep in the forefront of your mind that M5 must build M15 by not using MTF Stochastics.

I'm going to spend some more time on explaining the mechanics rather than simple trade examples to hopefully make it a little more black and white.

Quoting CindyXXXX
After I looked at some recent entries on the past few pages by Spudfyer it seems for the predictave method it doesn't have to rise above 20 below 80...

I think thats just for other methods such as escalator to pips.

I thought I almost had this stuff figured out until this recent post about the escalator filtering out false predictive MTF entries... I think I may have some reading to do

But would like to put it out there: IS there any black and white rules we could go by by knowing when NOT to trade the predictive entry>?

Or do we need to first understand other MTF methods before taking this on?
  • #164
  • Nov 4, 2008 10:54am Nov 4, 2008 10:54am
Looks interesting. I'll have to play with it and see if it needs any tweaking



Quoting sarah2002
i contacted some programmers asking for an indicator that calculates the difference between the last 2 closed stochastic bars
and cja did it for me
here is this reply
Hi Sarah

I have just made this for you, i have coded in a manual magic number which needs to be different for each time you load the #2 Bar Counter onto the same chart to avoid code conflict.
I have made this indicator so that you can set the Stochastics to any setting required and to any combo of 3 Tmeframes.
The indicator can also be moved to anywhere on the chart using the SHIFT inputs including an indicator window if required.
All the colors are able to be altered thru the inputs including the...
  • #165
  • Nov 4, 2008 12:37pm Nov 4, 2008 12:37pm
Thanks Sarah & CJA for the indicator. Also a big thanks to Spud for sharing his Stochastic knowledge.
  • #166
  • Nov 4, 2008 2:06pm Nov 4, 2008 2:06pm
Quoting sarah2002
i contacted some programmers asking for an indicator that calculates the difference between the last 2 closed stochastic bars
and cja did it for me
here is this reply

If anything needs to be changed let me know.

for any changing spud pls guide me
thank you
Hi Sarah2002,
Is it possible to include the price_field selection in this great indicator. It is even nice if the font size can be adjustable.

Thanks in advance.

Rey.
  • #167
  • Nov 4, 2008 10:58pm Nov 4, 2008 10:58pm
Spud,

I'm curious. Is this the 15m MTF strategy but this time using primarily the 5m stoch as an entry/trigger point? I know that we're watching how the 5m builds the 15m and the that the 30m, and so on and so forth. But it really looks to me like our tried and true MTF strategy but with a different twist on it. Either way, new or remodeled, it works
  • #168
  • Nov 5, 2008 12:29am Nov 5, 2008 12:29am
here is a demo trade for this morning
i prefer exit with the first alarm cause 1h and 4h are going way down and 15m an30m may fail to push them up and in case the trend ll continue up i think we ll ve many waves up and down from 5m and 15m to turn 1h up
i did my home work for today waitting for the professor to correct me
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  • #169
  • Edited 3:15am Nov 5, 2008 1:54am | Edited 3:15am
all time frames are going down now
than profit stop was hit
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  • #170
  • Nov 5, 2008 2:40am Nov 5, 2008 2:40am
Quoting sarah2002
all time frames are going down now tade still open no exit yet
I took same ride

It`s threatening my slided SL
  • #171
  • Nov 5, 2008 3:30am Nov 5, 2008 3:30am
a question
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  • #172
  • Edited 4:09am Nov 5, 2008 3:54am | Edited 4:09am
I've been watching the same move there Sarah and was wondering the same thing... Would be interested on Spuds take on entries today there seemed to be some good ones but also some tricky ones, which has lead me to wonder:

When is it safe to trade off just the 15 and 5 min stochs and when do we need to wait for confirmation of the 30m?

In that example Sarah posted above it seemed to be setting up nicely where the 5 lead the 15 and then the 15 lead the 30 and the 30 seemed to be leading the 1hr but after the 30m had "confirmed" a possible up (08:30-09:00 GMT candle close) move price immediately dropped instead of going long.

The 4hr was coming down under 80 maybe this was a warning sign not to be looking long but I'm not sure.


EDIT: Actually there was opportunity there to grap 10 pips or so and run which leads me to my next question...

How do we know when to hold a trade for longer and when not too. If we waited for the stochs to tell us to bail out in the trade above I think it would have hit our SL by the time the stochs indicated a change against us?

Same thing happened in a EUR JPY trade I was watching before... THe trade went up 60 or 70 pips but by the time the reversal signal happened price had already come down well below the break even point...

Sorry to ramble here I will cut this short
Time hides Nothing
  • #173
  • Nov 5, 2008 4:19am Nov 5, 2008 4:19am
In my case
I thought It was Must Exit

but, I moved SL to the resistance line instead of Exit

because another TFs seemed supporting Down Trend

I was stopped out with 38pips profit which was good enought for me,anyway
  • #174
  • Nov 5, 2008 5:39am Nov 5, 2008 5:39am
I designed the chart below to help depict where our M5,M15,M30,H1 and H4 stochastics should be in relation to each other on triggers....you should then see the movement build in the direction of our trade.
Each chart is independent, but they can also appear left to right or right to left through a serries of shorts or longs as price moves through a long period of time.
If you look at the Short Entries together in a series, notice how it looks like bubbles rising...first the M15, then the M30, then the H1 and then the H4. This is a continuous series of short trades (there are long trades inbetween).
Do you see how backwards it looks in a series? It is as if the Short Entries are moving the Stochastics up and the long entries are moving the Stochastics down.
Look at it again. Remember the M5 is our trigger and it will move first. So on the first short entry the M5 and M15 must come down first to move the M5,M15 and M30 up. The reason we wait for M15 to be in the lower half on the first 2 short entries is that M5 will have to move down to pull the M15 up. It goes on this way as the M30 and H1 must move down in cycles to pull the H4 up.
In between our short entries are the long entries. And they work on the same principle as the short only in reverse.
Most of any trading day you can see a steady pattern of Short/Long/Short/Long etc. for this very reason.
When the stochastics line up as shown, these are your key entry points.
If we look at the first 3 Short Entries...notice the progression that each time we go short M15 has risen a little higher than before and that eventually we see a rise in M30. You'll see that progression right across to H4.
You can sum it up by just remembering that to move the stochastics in longer time frames up, our shorter time frames must come down first and then build them up.
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  • #175
  • Nov 5, 2008 5:44am Nov 5, 2008 5:44am
Quoting jdcompute
Spud,

I'm curious. Is this the 15m MTF strategy but this time using primarily the 5m stoch as an entry/trigger point? I know that we're watching how the 5m builds the 15m and the that the 30m, and so on and so forth. But it really looks to me like our tried and true MTF strategy but with a different twist on it. Either way, new or remodeled, it works
It is. However it gives us a more structured entry and exit. At best you use it to catch the trend reversals and then incorporate MTF strategies to stay in the trend. You can identify when a good/bad entry is and overall it increases the efficiency of the trade. Those with MTF Stochastics and Escalator To PIPS knowledge should find this method very profitable. I think without MTF STochastic skills this is still profitable but you will take a few lumps along the way...though I thik you can combine this with any system you like and still use the entry and exit points to your advantage.
  • #176
  • Nov 5, 2008 5:47am Nov 5, 2008 5:47am
going for 10 pips or for 100 is the core of our losses when we trade.
we need spud to talk about his experience when he decide to go for 10 or to go for 100
  • #177
  • Nov 5, 2008 5:47am Nov 5, 2008 5:47am
Quoting sarah2002
a question
UP
  • #178
  • Nov 5, 2008 6:12am Nov 5, 2008 6:12am
Quoting sarah2002
going for 10 pips or for 100 is the core of our losses when we trade.
we need spud to talk about his experience when he decide to go for 10 or to go for 100
YES! Exactly. Walking away with 38 PIPS in your pocket is a great trade.
We don't eat a 72 ounce steak in one mouthful, you have to cut it up in small pieces and chew on it. Same with trading. Grab 4 small 5 PIP trades a day and you got 20 PIPS a day. I preach 20 PIPS everyday because you can easily make it and when you do it everyday you write your own cheque.

If you want to chase a long trend, then do so when everything is moving in your direction and things move as you expect them to move...when they don't you are out. If you are fighting a trade and "hoping" it moves your way...you are in the wrong trade.

You will lose trades. The more PIPS you chase the more you will lose. You have to find the balance of learning to walk away and take the PIPS you have versus the risk of trying to make 5 more PIPS, 10 more PIPS. You don't have to do it all in one trade. We have 20-30 trades available every day to choose from...get picky.

I chase trends when I see Escalator to PIPS set up....it is very easy to follow and you know when the escalator hits a bump and it is time to bail.

Otherwise I just look at where the stochastics are, select a target of say 15 PIPS and if it pops up to say 10 PIps and shrinks to 5 PIPS and things look uncertain, I am out.

If I get in a trade that goes against me right away, I look at it as to why is it a good opposite trade. Sometimes I just get out..lose 5-10 PIPS and start again. Other times, I know that I'm just way too early and have to ride it back to close to break-even and get out or re-asses. Sometimes I just hit my stop and move on.
  • #179
  • Nov 5, 2008 6:16am Nov 5, 2008 6:16am
Quoting CindyXXXX
I've been watching the same move there Sarah and was wondering the same thing... Would be interested on Spuds take on entries today there seemed to be some good ones but also some tricky ones, which has lead me to wonder:

When is it safe to trade off just the 15 and 5 min stochs and when do we need to wait for confirmation of the 30m?

In that example Sarah posted above it seemed to be setting up nicely where the 5 lead the 15 and then the 15 lead the 30 and the 30 seemed to be leading the 1hr but after the 30m had \"confirmed\" a possible up (08:30-09:00 GMT candle close) move price immediately dropped instead of going long.

The 4hr was coming down under 80 maybe this was a warning sign...

I can't answer that in 1 post. However, I will keep trying to show you.
  • #180
  • Nov 5, 2008 7:16am Nov 5, 2008 7:16am
Looking at Sarah's trade posted, the chart below is our indication of why things will go up at the trigger.
I've marked the stochastics as balls on the M5 Stochastic so you can see things a bit clearer. The H4 is on the left (brown) and the M5 is on the right (red). We know that H4 and H1 are moving down and for them to continue moving down M30, M15 and M5 must move up.
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